Cygnal 2024 Presidential Election Poll

Cygnal 2024 Presidential Election Poll

Likely Voters

• Donald Trump 48.2% (46.5%) {45.8%} [46.9%] (47.0%)
• Joe Biden 43.1% (44.5%) {45.0%} [45.3%] (45.8%)

Democrat

• Joe Biden 91% (89%) {91%} [91%] (89%)
  
• Donald Trump 4% (6%) {3%} [5%] {6%)

Republican

• Donald Trump 94% (92%) {93%} [93%] (92%)
  
• Joe Biden 4% (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
  

Independent

• Donald Trump 45% (39%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
• Joe Biden 38% (43%) {39%} [38%] (41%)

White

• Donald Trump 54% (51%) {51%} [52%] (53%)
• Joe Biden 38% (41%) {42%} [41%] (41%)

Black

• Joe Biden 64% (67%) {70%} [70%] (67%)
  
• Donald Trump 24% (23%) {17%} [22%] (21%)

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 46% (44%) {44%} [52%] (54%)
  
• Donald Trump 43% (45%) {44%} [44%] (43%)

Likely Voters

• Donald Trump 43.5% (41.2%) {40.8%} [41.5%] (40.8%)
• Joe Biden 38.1% (38.4%) {37.7%} [39.4%] (39.1%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7.1% (8.4%) {8.8%} [8.6%] (13.0%)
• Cornel West 2.1% (2.3%) {2.3%} [1.8%]
• Jill Stein 2.0% (1.8%) {2.4%} [1.1%]

Democrat

• Joe Biden 86% (81%) {81%} [82%] (80%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3% (6%) {5%} [6%] (11%)
• Jill Stein 3% (3%) {2%} [2%]
• Donald Trump 2% (3%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Cornel West 1% (3%) {2%} [2%]

Republican

• Donald Trump 90% (88%) {88%} [87%] (85%)
  
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 4% (4%) {5%} [7%] (7%)
• Joe Biden 2% (3%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
• Jill Stein 1% (0%) {1%} [0%]
• Cornel West 0% (1%) {1%} [0%]

Independent

• Donald Trump 37% (31%) {28%} [31%] (32%)
• Joe Biden 28% (33%) {26%} [29%] (30%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 14% (16%) {23%} [18%] (26%)
• Cornel West 6% (4%) {5%} [5%]
• Jill Stein 3% (2%) {5%} [2%]

White

• Donald Trump 51% (47%) {45%} [46%] (47%)
• Joe Biden 35% (36%) {37%} [37%] (36%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 6% (7%) {8%} [8%] (12%)
• Cornel West 2% (2%) {2%} [1%]
• Jill Stein 1% (1%) {2%} [1%]

Black

• Joe Biden 57% (60%) {58%} [58%] (58%)
  
• Donald Trump 17% (15%) {14%} [18%] (15%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 10% (11%) {11%} [10%] (15%)
• Cornel West 6% (1%) {4%} [5%]
• Jill Stein 3% (4%) {1%} [1%]

Hispanic

• Joe Biden 41% (33%) {30%} [41%] (44%)
  
• Donald Trump 36% (37%) {35%} [37%] (35%)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 13% (13%) {19%} [10%] (13%)
• Jill Stein 3% (2%) {4%} [0%]
• Cornel West 1% (8%) {2%} [3%]

Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted July 1-2, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 2.53 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 4-6, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-10, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-8, 2024 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: TheRun2016/cygnal (R) Iowa Democratic Caucus Survey

TheRun2016/cygnal (R) Iowa Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 55.6%
• Joe Biden 7.8%
• Elizabeth Warren 5.0%
• Andrew Cuomo 1.1%
• Kirsten Gillibrand 0.5%
• Martin O'Malley 0.2%
• Unsure 29.7%

Survey of 2,175 Iowa Democrats was conducted July 10-12, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 44.0% Somewhat liberal; 23.1% Very liberal; 22.6% Independent; 6.1% Somewhat conservative; 4.1% Very conservative.

Inside the numbers: 

Of those voters who believe the country is definitely going in the right direction, Clinton’s support spiked to 65.9%. Democratic voters with a high propensity to participate in Primaries gave Clinton her lowest support numbers at 45.2%. Younger voters between 18-29 gave Clinton her highest support with 69.1% saying they would support her.

Poll Watch: TheRun2016/cygnal (R) Iowa Republican Caucus Survey

TheRun2016/cygnal (R) Iowa GOP Caucus Poll

• Marco Rubio 11.4%
• Rand Paul 10.5%
• Paul Ryan 9.3%
• Jeb Bush 8.7%
• Chris Christie 7.7%
• Rick Santorum 6.7%
• Ted Cruz 6.1%
• Scott Walker 2.1%
• Bobby Jindal 1.3%
• Unsure 36.3%

Survey of 1,705 Iowa Republicans was conducted July 10-12, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.37 percentage points.  Political ideology: 41.9% Very conservative; 39.6% Somewhat conservative; 14.5% Independent; 2.8% Somewhat liberal; 1.2% Very liberal. 

Inside the numbers: 

Paul performed best among women with 14 percent while Rubio grabbed the most males with 13.4 percent. Former Gov. Jeb Bush was first among those with a high propensity to participate in the caucus.