Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey 

Senatorial Election

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% {43%} [42%]
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42% {41%} [40%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% {7%} [7%]
• Other 2% {2%} [2%]
• Not sure 4% {7%} [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 41% {34%} / 37% {44%} {+4%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 36% {33%} / 55% {52%} {-19%}

Gubernatorial Election

• Bill Brady (R) 44% {44%} [46%]
• Pat Quinn (D) 38% {39%} [36%]
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6% {6%}
• Rich Whitney (G) 4% {4%} [8%]
• Other 2% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Brady 43% {42%} / 39% {40%} {+4%}
• Pat Quinn 38% {37%} / 53% {52%} {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46% {45%} [46%]
• Disapprove 47% {47%} [46%]

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt Illinois's economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 27% {31%} [30%]
• Hurt 42% {43%} [36%]
• Not made much of a difference 26% {23%} [28%]

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 22% {24%} [24%]
• Somewhat support 22% {21%} [20%]
• Somewhat oppose 10% {11%} [10%]
• Strongly oppose 31% {32%} [31%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 25, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% {42%} [40%] (35%) {30%} [37%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42% {40%} [36%] (37%) {31%} [33%] (42%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3% {4%} [8%] (9%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3% {3%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% {10%} [13%] (19%) {24%} [30%] (24%)

Among Men

• Mark Kirk (R) 48% {46%} [44%] (41%) {34%} [43%] (40%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38% {38%} [31%] (35%) {30%} [34%] (40%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% {5%} [11%] (10%) {18%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3% {4%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% {7%} [12%] (15%) {17%} 

Among Women

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46% {43%} [41%] (40%) {32%} [32%] (43%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 44% {37%} [36%] (30%) {26%} [31%] (28%)
• Mike Labno (L) 3% {3%} [3%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 2% {4%} [6%] (8%) {11%}
• Undecided 6% {13%} [15%] (22%) {31%} [37%] (29%)

Among Democrats

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 78% {76%} [68%] (72%) {56%} [54%] (72%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 13% {10%} [9%] (5%) {10%} [10%] (7%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 1% {5%} [7%] (8%) {15%}
• Mike Labno (L) 0% {0%} [2%]
• Undecided 8% {9%} [15%] (15%) {19%} [36%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Mark Kirk (R) 87% {86%} [79%] (74%) {63%} [77%] (76%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 8% {3%} [2%] (6%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Mike Labno (L) 1% {2%} [2%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 0% {1%} [6%] (7%) {7%}
• Undecided 3% {9%} [11%] (12%) {25%} [16%] (19%)

Among Independents

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% {40%} [41%] (36%) {26%} [33%] (33%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 31% {31%} [27%] (20%) {20%} [30%] (27%)
• Mike Labno (L) 7% {9%} [5%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% {6%} [13%] (12%) {21%}
• Undecided 9% {14%} [14%] (32%) {32%} [37%] (40%)

Among Conservatives

• Mark Kirk (R) 75% {69%} [70%] (66%) {51%} [69%] (59%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 10% {11%} [6%] (9%) {11%} [9%] (19%)
• Mike Labno (L) 5% {6%} [4%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 2% {3%} [4%] (8%) {17%}
• Undecided 8% {11%} [16%] (17%) {21%} [22%] (21%)

Among Moderates

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 52% {45%} [43%] (42%) {33%} [36%] (45%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 37% {39%} [33%] (25%) {27%} [23%] (25%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 2% {4%} [9%] (11%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2% {3%} [2%]
• Undecided 8% {11%} [13%] (23%) {26%} [41%] (30%)

Among Liberals

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 77% {78%} [74%] (78%) {56%} [71%] (68%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 15% {6%} [2%] (1%) {6%} [8%] (11%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% {8%} [13%] (8%) {12%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2% {1%} [2%]
• Undecided 2% {8%} [9%] (13%) {26%} [22%] (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 39% {35%} [33%] (26%) {23%} [24%] (27%) / 45% {46%} [47%] (34%) {31%} [23%] (22%) {-6%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 35% {35%} [33%] (26%) {23%} [21%] (31%) / 49% {47%} [48%] (42%) {31%} [28%] (19%) {-14%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 46% {45%} [44%] (49%) {53%} [50%]
• Disapprove 48% {51%} [49%] (46%) {41%} [42%]

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

• Approve 18% {19%} [17%] (20%) {19%} [18%] (14%)
• Disapprove 57% {58%} [68%] (55%) {54%} [54%] (60%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?

• Approve 46% {47%} [46%] (50%) {49%} [45%] (47%)
• Disapprove 43% {45%} [43%] (38%) {36%} [34%] (39%)

Survey of 814 likely voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% {40%} [42%] (41%) {42%} [42%] (47%) Democrat; 31% {30%} [32%] (32%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Republican; 30% {30%} [26%] (26%) {29%} [28%] (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 45% {44%} [40%] (39%) {43%} [44%] (38%) Moderate; 35% {34%} [37%] (38%) {34%} [36%] (36%) Conservative; 20% {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [20%] (26%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-26, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Mark Kirk for Senate Ad: "Reckless"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 45% [41%] (40%) {40%} [39%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39% [32%] (40%) {40%} [36%] (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% [6%] (7%) {7%} [6%] (12%)
• Other 3% [7%] (4%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 6% [15%] (9%) {11%} [15%] (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42% [40%] (44%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (9%)
• Other 5% [8%] (7%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 2% [5%] (2%) {6%} [8%] (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 50% [56%] (51%) {47%} [49%] (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44% [40%] (46%) {42%} [48%] (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 43% [50%] (46%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 48% [42%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {-5%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 41% [44%] (39%) {42%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 52% [50%] (50%) {50%} [49%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-11%}
• LeAlan Jones 21% [34%] (18%) {27%} [21%] (26%) / 34% [28%] (37%) {36%} [36%] (30%) {-13%}
  
  How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 35% [36%] (34%) {36%} [34%] (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 16% [16%] (18%) {16%} [18%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 7% [9%] (7%) {8%} [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 41% [39%] (40%) {39%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 48% [45%] (46%) {46%} [46%] Democrat; 32% [32%] (32%) {32%} [30%] Republican; 20% [23%] (22%) {22%} [24%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Illinois Republicans support Kirk, while just 71% of Democrats back Giannoulias. Kirk leads Giannoulias by 28 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey 

Senatorial Election

• Mark Kirk (R) 43% [42%]
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% [40%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% [7%]
• Other 2% [2%]
• Not sure 7% [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 34% / 44% {-10%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 33% / 52% {-19%}

Gubernatorial Election

• Bill Brady (R) 44% [46%]
• Pat Quinn (D) 39% [36%]
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%
• Rich Whitney (G) 4% [8%]
• Other 1% [1%]
• Not sure 6% [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Brady 42% / 40% {+2%}
• Pat Quinn 37% / 52% {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 45% [46%]
• Disapprove 47% [46%]

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt Washington’s economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 31% [30%]
• Hurt 43% [36%]
• Not made much of a difference 23% [28%]

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 24% [24%]
• Somewhat support 21% [20%]
• Somewhat oppose 11% [10%]
• Strongly oppose 32% [31%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 23, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 25, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% [36%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% [38%] (34%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [5%] (6%)
• Mike Labno (L) 4% [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [17%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 31% [23%] (25%) / 31% [32%] (19%) {0%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 27% [31%] (22%) / 40% [31%] (28%) {-13%}

Survey of 700 registered voters was conducted October 18-22, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

In the Republican-leaning collar counties, Kirk now holds a 55 percent to 30 percent edge over Giannoulias. That's up from Kirk's 43 percent to 36 percent edge in late September.

Kirk's support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias' backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate.

Trust has been a central campaign theme on both sides, and voters' views on the two candidates have changed since the end of last month. Back then, 35 percent of voters considered Giannoulias more honest and trustworthy, compared with 30 percent for Kirk. The latest survey showed 36 percent of voters felt Kirk was more honest and trustworthy, compared with 31 percent for Giannoulias.

Independent voters have been viewing Giannoulias more dimly the last few weeks, and he is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent, up from 35 percent. At the same time, independents now view Kirk more favorably than unfavorably — 34 percent to 28 percent. Another 30 percent still don't know what to make of the five-term congressman.

Independents also view Kirk as more honest and trustworthy than Giannoulias, 38 percent to 24 percent. Still, reflecting the negativity that has engulfed the contest, more than 1 in 4 independents say neither candidate is more honest and trustworthy than the other.

Though Kirk's socially moderate positions in his North Shore district made some conservatives uncomfortable in the February primary, Republicans have moved strongly to support him. Kirk repudiated an early vote in support of carbon-based emissions trading that conservatives consider an energy tax, sought backing from unsuccessful 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and has stressed support of fiscal conservatism.

Though Giannoulias and Democrats have sought to mock those positions, they have only engendered more support for Kirk in his own party. Republicans who said they're going to vote for Kirk jumped from 76 percent to 86 percent since the last poll.

The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.

Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias' candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.

Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Illinois Political Survey

Mason-Dixon Illinois Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Mark Kirk (R) 43%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
• Undecided 16%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 32% / 35% {-3%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 28% / 41% {-13%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Bill Brady (R) 44%
• Pat Quinn (D) 40%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 4%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%
• Lex Green (L) 1%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Brady 37% / 32% {+5%}
• Pat Quinn 28% / 45% {-17%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance as president?

• Approve 51%
• Disapprove 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of the economy?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 43%

Do you support or oppose raising the state’s current income tax rate from 3% to 4% in order to provide additional funding for public schools?

• Support 43%
• Oppose 46% 

Illinois currently faces a state budget shortfall that some have estimated could be as high as $13 billion. Would you support or oppose addressing the state’s budget shortfall by cutting state spending by 10% across the board, including spending for public education?

• Support 34%
• Oppose 53%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 18-20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 42% [40%] (35%) {30%} [37%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% [36%] (37%) {31%} [33%] (42%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% [8%] (9%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3% [3%]
• Undecided 10% [13%] (19%) {24%} [30%] (24%)

Among Men

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% [44%] (41%) {34%} [43%] (40%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38% [31%] (35%) {30%} [34%] (40%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [11%] (10%) {18%}
• Mike Labno (L) 4% [3%]
• Undecided 7% [12%] (15%) {17%} 

Among Women

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43% [41%] (40%) {32%} [32%] (43%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 37% [36%] (30%) {26%} [31%] (28%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% [6%] (8%) {11%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3% [3%]
• Undecided 13% [15%] (22%) {31%} [37%] (29%)

Among Democrats

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 76% [68%] (72%) {56%} [54%] (72%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 10% [9%] (5%) {10%} [10%] (7%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [7%] (8%) {15%}
• Mike Labno (L) 0% [2%]
• Undecided 9% [15%] (15%) {19%} [36%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Mark Kirk (R) 86% [79%] (74%) {63%} [77%] (76%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 3% [2%] (6%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Mike Labno (L) 2% [2%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 1% [6%] (7%) {7%}
• Undecided 9% [11%] (12%) {25%} [16%] (19%)

Among Independents

• Mark Kirk (R) 40% [41%] (36%) {26%} [33%] (33%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 31% [27%] (20%) {20%} [30%] (27%)
• Mike Labno (L) 9% [5%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% [13%] (12%) {21%}
• Undecided 14% [14%] (32%) {32%} [37%] (40%)

Among Conservatives

• Mark Kirk (R) 69% [70%] (66%) {51%} [69%] (59%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 11% [6%] (9%) {11%} [9%] (19%)
• Mike Labno (L) 6% [4%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3% [4%] (8%) {17%}
• Undecided 11% [16%] (17%) {21%} [22%] (21%)

Among Moderates

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 45% [43%] (42%) {33%} [36%] (45%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 39% [33%] (25%) {27%} [23%] (25%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% [9%] (11%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3% [2%]
• Undecided 11% [13%] (23%) {26%} [41%] (30%)

Among Liberals

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 78% [74%] (78%) {56%} [71%] (68%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 8% [13%] (8%) {12%}
• Mark Kirk (R) 6% [2%] (1%) {6%} [8%] (11%)
• Mike Labno (L) 1% [2%]
• Undecided 8% [9%] (13%) {26%} [22%] (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 35% [33%] (26%) {23%} [24%] (27%) / 46% [47%] (34%) {31%} [23%] (22%) {-11%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 35% [33%] (26%) {23%} [21%] (31%) / 47% [48%] (42%) {31%} [28%] (19%) {-12%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 45% [44%] (49%) {53%} [50%]
• Disapprove 51% [49%] (46%) {41%} [42%]

Since Barack Obama became President do you think things in America have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?

• Better 33%
• Worse 49%
• Stayed about the same 18%

Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by President Obama, or does it not make a difference either way?

• More likely 25%
• Less likely 41% 
• Doesn't make a difference 34%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

• Approve 19% [17%] (20%) {19%} [18%] (14%)
• Disapprove 58% [68%] (55%) {54%} [54%] (60%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?

• Approve 47% [46%] (50%) {49%} [45%] (47%)
• Disapprove 45% [43%] (38%) {36%} [34%] (39%)

Would you rather Democrats or Republicans held the majority in the next US Senate?

• Republicans 46%
• Democrats 45%

Survey of 557 likely voters was conducted October 14-16, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% [42%] (41%) {42%} [42%] (47%) Democrat; 30% [32%] (32%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Republican; 30% [26%] (26%) {29%} [28%] (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 44% [40%] (39%) {43%} [44%] (38%) Moderate; 34% [37%] (38%) {34%} [36%] (36%) Conservative; 22% [23%] (22%) {23%} [20%] (26%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-26, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 41% (40%) {40%} [39%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 32% (40%) {40%} [36%] (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (7%) {7%} [6%] (12%)
• Other 7% (4%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 15% (9%) {11%} [15%] (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (43%) {45%} [44%] (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% (44%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (4%) {4%} [4%] (9%)
• Other 8% (7%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 5% (2%) {6%} [8%] (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 56% (51%) {47%} [49%] (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% (46%) {42%} [48%] (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (3%) {2%} [3%] (8%)
• Other 0% (0%) {5%} [0%]
• Not sure 0% (0%) {3%} [0%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 50% (46%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 42% (43%) {45%} [46%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+8%}
• LeAlan Jones 34% (18%) {27%} [21%] (26%) / 28% (37%) {36%} [36%] (30%) {+6%}  
• Alexi Giannoulias 44% (39%) {42%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 50% (50%) {50%} [49%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-6%}

Would it be more accurate to describe Mark Kirk’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 50%
• Extreme 33%

Would it be more accurate to describe Alexi Giannoulias’ views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 40%
• Extreme 35%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 36% (34%) {36%} [34%] (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 16% (18%) {16%} [18%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 9% (7%) {8%} [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 39% (40%) {39%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 45% (46%) {46%} [46%] Democrat; 32% (32%) {32%} [30%] Republican; 23% (22%) {22%} [24%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Illinois Republicans support Kirk, while just 68% of Democrats back Giannoulias. Kirk leads Giannoulias by 16 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: Paul Simon Institute/SIU Illinois Political Survey

Paul Simon Institute/SIU Illinois Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Mark Kirk (R) 37.3%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 36.8%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3.3%
• Mike Labno (L) 1.8%
• Someone else 2.4%
• Don't know 18.3%

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Bill Brady (R) 38.4%
• Pat Quinn (D) 29.8%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5.9%
• Rich Whitney (G) 2.2%
• Lex Green (L) 1.5%
• Someone else 2.6%
• Don't know 19.5%

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?

• Republican 40.8%
• Democrat 40.0%
• Other/Don’t know 19.3%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate that was affiliated with the Tea Party movement?

• More likely 33.1%
• Less likely 45.5%

Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 20.1%
• Somewhat approve 30.2%
• Somewhat disapprove 16.1%
• Strongly disapprove 31.9%

Survey of 758 likely voters was conducted September 30 - October 10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 40% {40%} [39%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% {40%} [36%] (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% {7%} [6%] (12%)
• Other 4% {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 9% {11%} [15%] (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44% {41%} [41%] (37%) {45%}
• Mark Kirk (R) 43% {45%} [44%] (41%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% {4%} [4%] (9%)
• Other 7% {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 2% {6%} [8%] (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 51% {47%} [49%] (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46% {42%} [48%] (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3% {2%} [3%] (8%)
• Other 0% {5%} [0%]
• Not sure 0% {3%} [0%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 46% {48%} [47%] (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 43% {45%} [46%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+3%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 39% {42%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 50% {50%} [49%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-11%}
• LeAlan Jones 18% {27%} [21%] (26%) / 37% {36%} [36%] (30%) {-19%}  

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% {36%} [34%] (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 18% {16%} [18%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 7% {8%} [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 40% {39%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 11, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 46% {46%} [46%] Democrat; 32% {32%} [30%] Republican; 22% {22%} [24%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Illinois Republicans support Kirk, while 77% of Democrats back Giannoulias. Kirk leads Giannoulias by 22 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Mark Kirk for Senate TV Ad: Giannoulias: "I didn't know the extent of their activity."

Coming to Illinois network and cable affiliates in the very near future...

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3



NBC's First Read reports:

Speaking to reporters after the show, Giannoulias said that the bank was aware of "rumblings" about some of the borrowers but reiterated that the decision to offer the loans was based on the borrowers' creditworthiness alone.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 40% [39%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% [36%] (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% [6%] (12%)
• Other 2% [4%] (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 11% [15%] (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 45% [44%] (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% [41%] (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% [4%] (9%)
• Other 5% [4%] (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 6% [8%] (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 47% [49%] (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42% [48%] (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 2% [3%] (8%)
• Other 5% [0%]
• Not sure 3% [0%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 48% [47%] (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 45% [46%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+3%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 42% [43%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 50% [49%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-8%}
• LeAlan Jones 27% [21%] (26%) / 36% [36%] (30%) {-9%}  

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 36% [34%] (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 16% [18%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 8% [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 39% [38%] (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 4, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 46% [46%] Democrat; 32% [30%] Republican; 22% [24%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Kirk has the backing of 86% of Illinois Republicans, while Giannoulias is supported by just 72% of the state’s Democrats. The GOP candidate has a 22-point lead, 51-29%, among voters not affiliated with either party.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Illinois Political Survey

Suffolk University Illinois Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Mark Kirk (R) 42%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 10%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 27% / 31% {-4%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 28% / 35% { -7% }

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Pat Quinn (D) 43%
• Bill Brady (R) 37%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 7%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%
• Lex Green (L) 1%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Quinn 38% / 41% {-3%}
• Bill Brady 28% / 32% {-4%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat Quinn is doing as Governor?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 46%

Governor Pat Quinn says that he supports civil unions for same-sex couples. His opponent Bill Brady opposes civil unions, and has said he favors an amendment to the Illinois constitution banning equal marriage rights for same-sex citizens. Which of the following do you personally favor?

• Recognition of legal marriage between people of the same sex 30%
• Recognizing civil unions between same-sex couples 24%
• Absolute prohibition of any legally-recognized unions for same-sex couples 37%

Recently several states have decriminalized the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use where the penalty for possession of one ounce or less is considered a minor offense, ranging from $100 to $500. At this time, which of the following describes how you feel about marijuana laws in Illinois. One, it should be fully legal to have one ounce or less for personal use; two, It should be decriminalized to have one ounce or less for personal use; three, It should be legal only when prescribed by a doctor to have one ounce or less or; four, possession of one ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances.

• It should be fully legal to have one ounce or less for personal use 18%
• It should be decriminalized to have one ounce or less for personal use 19%
• It should be legal only when prescribed by a doctor to have one ounce or less 33%
• Possession of one ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances 21%

A bill recently re-introduced in Congress called The DREAM act provides a path to citizenship for young people who came to the U.S. as children and are not legal citizens. Under the act, eligible students could apply for a conditional legal status provided they graduate from a two-year college, complete two years of a four-year university, or serve in the military for two years. Would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the DREAM act?

• Strongly support 36%
• Somewhat support 26%
• Somewhat oppose 11%
• Strongly oppose 17%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 61% / 32% {+29%}
• Barack Obama 52% / 41% {+11%}
• Roland Burris 20% / 52% {-32%}
• Rod Blagojevich 10% / 79% {-69%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 35% Democrat; 25% Republican; 38% Independent. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% [36%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% [38%] (34%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [5%] (6%)
• Mike Labno (L) 4% [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [17%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 31% [23%] (25%) / 31% [32%] (19%) {0%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 27% [31%] (22%) / 40% [31%] (28%) {-13%}

Survey of 700 registered voters was conducted October 18-22, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

In the Republican-leaning collar counties, Kirk now holds a 55 percent to 30 percent edge over Giannoulias. That's up from Kirk's 43 percent to 36 percent edge in late September.

Kirk's support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias' backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate.

Trust has been a central campaign theme on both sides, and voters' views on the two candidates have changed since the end of last month. Back then, 35 percent of voters considered Giannoulias more honest and trustworthy, compared with 30 percent for Kirk. The latest survey showed 36 percent of voters felt Kirk was more honest and trustworthy, compared with 31 percent for Giannoulias.

Independent voters have been viewing Giannoulias more dimly the last few weeks, and he is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent, up from 35 percent. At the same time, independents now view Kirk more favorably than unfavorably — 34 percent to 28 percent. Another 30 percent still don't know what to make of the five-term congressman.

Independents also view Kirk as more honest and trustworthy than Giannoulias, 38 percent to 24 percent. Still, reflecting the negativity that has engulfed the contest, more than 1 in 4 independents say neither candidate is more honest and trustworthy than the other.

Though Kirk's socially moderate positions in his North Shore district made some conservatives uncomfortable in the February primary, Republicans have moved strongly to support him. Kirk repudiated an early vote in support of carbon-based emissions trading that conservatives consider an energy tax, sought backing from unsuccessful 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and has stressed support of fiscal conservatism.

Though Giannoulias and Democrats have sought to mock those positions, they have only engendered more support for Kirk in his own party. Republicans who said they're going to vote for Kirk jumped from 76 percent to 86 percent since the last poll.

The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.

Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias' candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.

Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Illinois Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research Illinois Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43%
• Mark Kirk (R) 42%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 8%

Among Men

• Mark Kirk (R) 45%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 9%

Among Women

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%
• Mark Kirk (R) 38%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

Among Democrats

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 83%
• Mark Kirk (R) 10%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

Among Republicans

• Mark Kirk (R) 85%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 3%

Among Independents

• Mark Kirk (R) 43%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 27%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 13%

Among Liberals

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 77%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 11%
• Mark Kirk (R) 10%

Among Moderates

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 51%
• Mark Kirk (R) 32%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

Among Conservatives

• Mark Kirk (R) 67%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 19%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Bill Brady (R) 40%
• Pat Quinn (D) 38%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 14%
• Rich Whitney (G) 4%

Among Men

• Bill Brady (R) 43%
• Pat Quinn (D) 38%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 14%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%

Among Women

• Pat Quinn (D) 39%
• Bill Brady (R) 36%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 14%
• Rich Whitney (G) 6%

Among Democrats

• Pat Quinn (D) 66%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 16%
• Bill Brady (R) 10%
• Rich Whitney (G) 6%

Among Republicans

• Bill Brady (R) 82%
• Pat Quinn (D) 8%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%
• Rich Whitney (G) 4%

Among Independents

• Bill Brady (R) 40%
• Pat Quinn (D) 30%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 19%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%

Among Liberals

• Pat Quinn (D) 72%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 14%
• Rich Whitney (G) 6%
• Bill Brady (R) 5%

Among Moderates

• Pat Quinn (D) 43%
• Bill Brady (R) 30%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 19%
• Rich Whitney (G) 4%

Among Conservatives

• Bill Brady (R) 68%
• Pat Quinn (D) 17%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 8%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%

Survey of 828 likely voters was conducted September 24-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 40% (35%) {30%} [37%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 36% (37%) {31%} [33%] (42%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 8% (9%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 13% (19%) {24%} [30%] (24%)

Among Men

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (41%) {34%} [43%] (40%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 31% (35%) {30%} [34%] (40%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 11% (10%) {18%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 12% (15%) {17%} 

Among Women

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% (40%) {32%} [32%] (43%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 36% (30%) {26%} [31%] (28%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (8%) {11%}
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 15% (22%) {31%} [37%] (29%)

Among Democrats

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 68% (72%) {56%} [54%] (72%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 9% (5%) {10%} [10%] (7%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7% (8%) {15%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 15% (15%) {19%} [36%] (20%)

Among Republicans

• Mark Kirk (R) 79% (74%) {63%} [77%] (76%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (7%) {7%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 2% (6%) {5%} [7%] (5%)
• Undecided 11% (12%) {25%} [16%] (19%)

Among Independents

• Mark Kirk (R) 41% (36%) {26%} [33%] (33%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 27% (20%) {20%} [30%] (27%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 13% (12%) {21%}
• Mike Labno (L) 5%
• Undecided 14% (32%) {32%} [37%] (40%)

Among Conservatives

• Mark Kirk (R) 70% (66%) {51%} [69%] (59%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 6% (9%) {11%} [9%] (19%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (8%) {17%}
• Mike Labno (L) 4%
• Undecided 16% (17%) {21%} [22%] (21%)

Among Moderates

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43% (42%) {33%} [36%] (45%)
• Mark Kirk (R) 33% (25%) {27%} [23%] (25%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 9% (11%) {14%}
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 13% (23%) {26%} [41%] (30%)

Among Liberals

• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 74% (78%) {56%} [71%] (68%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 13% (8%) {12%}
• Mark Kirk (R) 2% (1%) {6%} [8%] (11%)
• Mike Labno (L) 2%
• Undecided 9% (13%) {26%} [22%] (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 33% (26%) {23%} [24%] (27%) / 47% (34%) {31%} [23%] (22%) {-14%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 33% (26%) {23%} [21%] (31%) / 48% (42%) {31%} [28%] (19%) {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 44% (49%) {53%} [50%]
• Disapprove 49% (46%) {41%} [42%]

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Roland Burris’ job performance?

• Approve 17% (20%) {19%} [18%] (14%)
• Disapprove 68% (55%) {54%} [54%] (60%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick Durbin’s job performance?

• Approve 46% (50%) {49%} [45%] (47%)
• Disapprove 43% (38%) {36%} [34%] (39%)

Survey of 470 likely voters was conducted September 23-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% (41%) {42%} [42%] (47%) Democrat; 32% (32%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Republican; 26% (26%) {29%} [28%] (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 40% (39%) {43%} [44%] (38%) Moderate; 37% (38%) {34%} [36%] (36%) Conservative; 23% (22%) {23%} [20%] (26%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey 

Senatorial Election

• Mark Kirk (R) 42%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 7%
• Other 2%
• Not sure 9%

Gubernatorial Election

• Bill Brady (R) 46%
• Pat Quinn (D) 36%
• Rich Whitney (G) 8%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 46%

All in all, would you rather have bigger government that provides more services or smaller government that provides fewer services?

• Bigger government that provides more services 38%
• Smaller government that provides fewer services 50%

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt Washington’s economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 30%
• Hurt 36%
• Not made much of a difference 28%

Thinking about the health care law that was passed earlier this year, would you favor repealing the new law to keep it from going into effect, or would you oppose repealing the new law?

• Favor repealing the health care law 45%
• Oppose repealing the health care law 45%

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 24%
• Somewhat support 20%
• Somewhat oppose 10%
• Strongly oppose 31%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted September 25, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 39% (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 36% (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (12%)
• Other 4% (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 15% (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (9%)
• Other 4% (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 8% (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 49% (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 48% (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 3% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 47% (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 46% (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+1%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 43% (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 49% (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-6%}
• LeAlan Jones 21% (26%) / 36% (30%) {-15%}  

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 18% (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 10% (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 38% (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 46% Democrat; 30% Republican; 24% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Kirk has the backing of 80% of Illinois Republicans, while Giannoulias is supported by 71% of the state’s Democrats. The GOP candidate has a better than two-to-one lead, 56-25%, among voters not affiliated with either party. Jones gets single-digit support from voters in both major parties and unaffiliateds.