Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon/St. Louis Post-Dispatch Missouri 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon/St. Louis Post-Dispatch Missouri 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 47% (40%) 
• Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (41%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 3% (9%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 7% (9%)

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 24-26, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 23-24, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 47% (44%)
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 39% (38%)
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 6% (6%)
• Not sure 6% (10%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 47% (47%)
• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 38% (36%)
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 9% (9%)
• Not sure 4% (7%)

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 56% (52%)
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 32% (30%)
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 3% (3%)
• Not sure 7% (12%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 39% (40%) / 47% (46%) {-8}
• Donald Trump 31% (30%) / 58% (54%) {-27}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 20-22, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [44%] (45%)
• Donald Trump (R) 42% [42%] (42%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 7% [6%] (6%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% [2%]
• Undecided 4% [6%] (7%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 49% [47%] (52%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [36%] (34%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 9% [9%] (7%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% [3%]
• Undecided 4% [5%] (7%)

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [51%] (55%)
• Donald Trump (R) 36% [37%] (33%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% [4%] (5%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% [1%]
• Undecided 4% [7%] (7%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 39% [35%] (41%) / 47% [45%] (47%) {-8}
• Donald Trump 31% [29%] (31%) / 53% [52%] (53%) {-22}

Survey of 820 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 2, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 44%
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 38%
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 6%
• Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (G) 2%
• Not sure 10%

Among Men

• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 47%
• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 36%
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 9%
• Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (G) 1%
• Not sure 7%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 52%
• Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 30%
• Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (L) 3%
• Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka (G) 3%
• Not sure 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 40% / 46% {-6}
• Donald Trump 30% / 54% {-24}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted September 12-14, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%)
• Donald Trump (R) 42% (42%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 6% (6%)
• Jill Stein (G) 2%
• Undecided 6% (7%)

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 47% (52%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (34%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 9% (7%)
• Jill Stein (G) 3%
• Undecided 5% (7%)

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (55%)
• Donald Trump (R) 37% (33%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 4% (5%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1%
• Undecided 7% (7%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 35% (41%) / 45% (47%) {-10%}
• Donald Trump 29% (31%) / 52% (53%) {-23%}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted August 22-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 2, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Missouri 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Missouri 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 9%
• Jill Stein (G) 1%
• Undecided 9%

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted July 23-24, 2016 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Donald Trump (R) 42%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Undecided 7%

Among Men

• Donald Trump (R) 52%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 34%
• Gary Johnson (L) 7%
• Undecided 7%

Among Women

• Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
• Donald Trump (R) 33%
• Gary Johnson (L) 5%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 41% / 47% {-6%}
• Donald Trump 31% / 53% {-22%}

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted May 31 - June 2, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Mississippi 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Mississippi 2016 Presidential Poll

• John Kasich (R) 52%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 37%

• Ted Cruz (R) 51%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 40%

• Donald Trump (R) 46%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Survey of 625 registered voters was conducted March 28-30, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 36% [11%]
• Marco Rubio 30% [16%] (31%)
• Ted Cruz 17% [4%] (8%)
• John Kasich 8% [3%]
• Undecided 8% [13%] (17%)

Survey of 700 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 7-9, 2016 for The Ledger/10 News WTSP. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 20-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-16, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 58%
• Bernie Sanders 17%
• Martin O'Malley 2%
• Lincoln Chafee 0%
• Jim Webb 0%
• Undecided 23%

Survey of 500 registered Democratic voters was conducted July 20-23, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Jeb Bush 28% (30%)
• Marco Rubio 16% (31%)
• Scott Walker 13% (2%)
• Donald Trump 11%
• Mike Huckabee 5%
• Ted Cruz 4% (8%)
• Rand Paul 3% (7%)
• John Kasich 3% 
• Carly Fiorina 2%
• Ben Carson 1%
• Bobby Jindal 1%
• Rick Santorum 0%
• Rick Perry 0%
• Chris Christie 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• George Pataki 0% 
• Undecided 13% (17%)

Survey of 500 registered Republican voters was conducted July 20-23, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 14-16, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

• Marco Rubio (R) 49%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

• Jeb Bush (R) 47%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Survey of 625 registered voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Marco Rubio 31%
• Jeb Bush 30%
• Ted Cruz 8%
• Rand Paul 7%
• Scott Walker 2%
• Other 5% 
• Undecided 17%

Survey of 400 registered Republican voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2014 Senate Poll

• Al Franken (D) 48% (49%)
• Mike McFadden (R) 39% (36%)
• Steve Carlson (I) 3% (3%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 9% (11%)

Favorable / Unfavorable

• Al Franken 46% (48%) / 32% (36%) {+14%}
• Mike McFadden 30% (30%) / 32% (27%) {-2%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Al Franken's job performance as Minnesota's U.S. Senator?

• Approve 55% (53%)
• Disapprove 39% (41%)

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune Minnesota 2014 Senate Poll

• Al Franken (D) 49%
• Mike McFadden (R) 36%
• Steve Carlson (I) 3%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable

• Al Franken 48% / 36% {+12%}
• Mike McFadden 30% / 27% {+3%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Al Franken's job performance as Minnesota's U.S. Senator?

• Approve 53%
• Disapprove 41%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 8-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Rick Scott (R) 43% (42%)
• Charlie Crist (D) 41% (42%)
• Adrian Wyllie (L) 4% (4%)
• Other 1% (0%)
• Undecided 11% (12%)

Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted September 2-4, 2014 on behalf of Telemundo and Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party registration: 41% (42%) Democrat; 37% (38%) Republican; 21% (20%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17 and 21-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Charlie Crist (D) 42%
• Rick Scott (R) 42%
• Adrian Wyllie 4%
• Undecided 12%

Among Democrats

• Charlie Crist (D) 74%
• Rick Scott (R) 12%
• Adrian Wyllie 2%
• Undecided 12%

Among Republicans

• Rick Scott (R) 79%
• Charlie Crist (D) 9%
• Adrian Wyllie 3%
• Undecided 9%

Among Independents 

• Charlie Crist (D) 37%
• Rick Scott (R) 35%
• Adrian Wyllie 10%
• Undecided 18%

Among Men

• Rick Scott (R) 49%
• Charlie Crist (D) 37%
• Adrian Wyllie 5%
• Undecided 9%

Among Women

• Charlie Crist (D) 46%
• Rick Scott (R) 36%
• Adrian Wyllie 3%
• Undecided 15%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Charlie Crist 37% / 34% {+3%}
• Rick Scott 35% / 35% {0%}

Survey of 700 likely voters was conducted April 15-17 and 21-22, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party registration: 42% Democrat; 38% Republican; 20% Independent/Other.

2012 Presidential Election Pollster Scorecard

Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012

FLORIDA: Obama 50.0% Obama 49.2%

• PPP (955 LV; 11/3-4): Obama 50% Romney 49% (O+1)
• CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (1,073 LV; 10/23-28): Obama 48% Romney 47% (O+1)  
• NBC/WSJ/Marist (1,545 LV; 10/30-11/1): Obama 49% Romney 47% (O+2) 
• Gravis Marketing (1,060 LV; 11/4-5): Obama 49% Romney 49% (Tie) 
• SurveyUSA (595 LV; 10/25-27): Obama 47% Romney 47% (Tie) 
• We Ask America (1,146 LV; 10/30): Romney 49.8% Obama 48.9% (R+0.9) 
• CNN/ORC (770 LV; 10/25-28 LV): Romney 50% Obama 49% (R+1) 
• RCP Average: Romney 49.7% Obama 48.2% (R+1.5%)
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 10/25): Romney 50% Obama 48% (R+2) 
• Fox News (1,130 LV; 10/17-18): Romney 48% Obama 45% (R+3) 
• ARG (600 LV; 10/8-11): Romney 49% Obama 46% (R+3) 
• Sunshine State/VSS (1,001 LV; 10/22-24): Romney 51% Obama 46% (R+5) 
• InsiderAdvantage (437 LV; 11/4) Romney 52% Obama 47% (R+5) 
• Mason-Dixon (800 LV; 10/30-11/1): Romney 51% Obama 45% (R+6) 
• Suffolk University 

OHIO: Obama 50.1% Romney 48.2%

• Columbus Dispatch (1,501 LV; 10/24-11/3): Obama 50% Romney 48% (O+2)
• ARG (600 LV; 10/23-25): Obama 49% Romney 47% 
• Purple Strategies (600 LV; 10/23-25): Obama 46% Romney 44% (O+2)
• University of Cincinnati (901 LV; 10/31-11/4): Obama 50% Romney 48.5% (O+1.5)
• CNN/ORC (796 LV; 10/30-11/1): Obama 50% Romney 47% (O+3)
• Gravis Marketing (1,316 LV; 11/4-5): Obama 49% Romney 48% (O+1)
• We Ask America (1,649 LV: 10/31-11/1): Obama 50% Romney 46% (O+4)
  
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 11/4): Obama 49% Romney 49% (Tie)
  
• RCP Average: Obama 50.0% Romney 47.1% (O+2.9)
• PPP: Obama 52% Romney 47% (O+5)
  
• SurveyUSA (803 LV; 11/1-4): Obama 49% Romney 44% (O+5)
• TIME (783 LV; 10/22-23): Obama 49% Romney 44% (O+5)
• NBC/WSJ/Marist (971 LV; 10/31-11/1): Obama 51% Romney 45% (O+6)
  

VIRGINIA: Obama 50.8% Romney 47.8%

• CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (1,074 LV; 10/23-28): Obama 49% Romney 47% (O+2)
• We Ask America (1,069 LV; 10/30-11/1): Obama 49% Romney 48% (O+1)
• NBC/WSJ/Marist (1,165 LV; 11/1-2): Obama 48% Romney 47% (O+1)
• RCP Average: Obama 48.0% Romney 47.7% (O+0.3)
• Gravis Marketing (645 LV; 10/26): Obama 48% Romney 48% (Tie)
• Purple Strategies (600 LV; 10/23-25): Obama 47% Romney 47% (Tie)
• PPP (975 LV; 11/3-4): Obama 51% Romney 47% (O+4) 
• Washington Post (1,228; 10/22-26) : Obama 51% Romney 47% (O+4)
• ARG (600 LV; 10/12-14): Romney 48% Obama 47% (R+1)
  
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 11/4): Romney 50% Obama 48% (R+2)
• Fox News (1,126 LV; 10/23-24): Romney 47% Obama 45% (R+2)
• Roanoke College (638 LV; 10/23-26): Romney 49% Obama 44% (R+5)
  
• Suffolk University  

COLORADO: Obama 51.2% Romney 46.5%

• We Ask America (1,246 LV; 10/30): Obama 50.1 Romney 46.7% (O+3.4)
• Gravis Marketing (2,089 LV; 10/5-11): Obama 48.4% Romney 46.0% (O+2.4) 
• CNN/ORC (764 LV; 10/26-31): Obama 50% Romney 48% (O+2)
• SurveyUSA (695 LV; 10/28-31): Obama 47% Romney 45% (O+2)
• RCP Average: Obama 48.8% Romney 47.3% (O+1.5)  
• Purple Strategies (600 LV; 10/23-25): Obama 47% Romney 46% (O+1)
• PPP (1,096 LV; 11/3-4): Obama 52% Romney 46% (O+6)
• ARG (600 LV; 10/25-28): Romney 48% Obama 47% (R+1)
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 10/29): Romney 50% Obama 47% (R+3)

IOWA: Obama 52.1% Romney 46.5%

• Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. (800 LV; 10/30-11/2): Obama 47% Romney 42% (O+5)
• NBC/WSJ/Marist (1,142 LV; 10/28-29): Obama 50% Romney 44% (O+6)
• Gravis Marketing (594 LV; 11/1): Obama 49% Romney 45% (O+4)
• RCP Average: Obama 48.7% Romney 46.3% (O+2.4) 
• PPP (1,122; 11/3-4): Obama 50% Romney 48% (O+2)
• We Ask America (1,174 LV; 10/30): Obama 48.8% Romney 47.3% (O+1.5)
  
• ARG (600 LV; 11/2-4): Romney 49% Obama 48% (R+1)
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 10/30): Romney 49% Obama 48% (R+1)
• University of Iowa (302 LV; 10/18-27): Romney 45% Obama 44% (R+1)

WISCONSIN: Obama 52.8% Romney 46.1%

• RCP Average: Obama 50.4% Romney 46.2% (O+4.2)
• We Ask America (1,210 LV; 10/30-11/1): Obama 52% Romney 45% (O+7)
• PPP (1,256 LV; 11/2-3): Obama 51% Romney 48% (O+3)
• Marquette (1,243 LV; 10/25-28): Obama 51% Romney 43% (O+8)
• NBC/WSJ/Marist (1,065 LV; 10/28-29): Obama 49% Romney 46% (O+3)
• WPR/St. Norbert College (402 LV; 10/25-29): Obama 51% Romney 42% (O+9)
• Rasmussen (750 LV; 10/29): Romney 49% Obama 49% (Tie)

NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 50.6% Obama 48.4%

• RCP Average: Romney 49.2% Obama 46.2% (R+3)
• Gravis Marketing (1,130 LV; 11/4): Romney 50% Obama 46% (R+4)
• PPP (926 LV; 11/3-4): Romney 49% Obama 49% (Tie)
• SurveyUSA (682 LV; 10/26-29): Obama 50% Romney 45% (R+5)
• Rasmussen (500 LV; 10/25): Romney 52% Obama 46% (R+6)

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Senate Poll

• Denny Rehberg (R) 49% (48%)
• Jon Tester (D) 45% (45%)
• Dan Cox (L) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 5% (6%)

Among Independents

• Denny Rehberg (R) 47% (47%)
• Jon Tester (D) 40% (38%)
• Dan Cox (L) 5% (4%)
• Undecided 8% (11%)

Among Republicans

• Denny Rehberg (R) 93% (91%)
• Jon Tester (D) 3% (7%)
• Dan Cox (L) 0% (0%)
• Undecided 4% (2%)

Among Democrats

• Jon Tester (D) 97% (92%)
• Denny Rehberg (R) 1% (4%)
• Dan Cox (L) 0% (0%)
• Undecided 2% (4%)

Among Men

• Denny Rehberg (R) 52% (53%)
• Jon Tester (D) 42% (39%)
• Dan Cox (L) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 5% (7%)

Among Women

• Jon Tester (D) 47% (50%)
• Denny Rehberg (R) 47% (43%)
• Dan Cox (L) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 5% (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Denny Rehberg 42% (44%) / 40% (37%) {+2%}
• Jon Tester 42% (40%) / 43% (36%) {-1%}

Survey of 625 likely Montana voters was conducted October 29-31, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Montana 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney (R) 53% (51%)
• Barack Obama (D) 43% (42%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 2% (2%)
• Undecided 2% (5%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney (R) 53% (51%)
• Barack Obama (D) 36% (33%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 7% (5%)
• Undecided 4% (11%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney (R) 97% (95%)
• Barack Obama (D) 2% (1%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 0% (0%)
• Undecided 1% (4%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama (D) 94% (93%)
• Mitt Romney (R) 2% (4%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 0% (0%)
• Undecided 2% (3%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney (R) 58% (56%)
• Barack Obama (D) 38% (34%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 3% (3%)
• Undecided 1% (7%)

Among Women

• Mitt Romney (R) 49% (47%) 
• Barack Obama (D) 47% (49%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 3% (3%)

Survey of 625 likely Montana voters was conducted October 29-31, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

By region, Romney leads Obama in the Eastern Montana media market, 69 percent to 27 percent; the Billings media market, 63 percent to 34 percent; the Great Falls media market, 51 percent to 44 percent; and the Missoula/Kalispell market, 52 percent to 45 percent.

Obama tops Romney only in the Butte/Helena/Bozeman media market, 51 percent to 44 percent.