Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {45%} [49%]
• Donald Trump (R) 38% {40%} [34%]
• Gary Johnson (L) 5% {5%} [6%]
• Jill Stein (G) 0% {3%} [3%]

Survey of 496 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted September 28 - October 2, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 6.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 25-29, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 1, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [49%] (46%)
• Donald Trump (R) 40% [38%] (33%)

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Donald Trump (R) 40%
• Gary Johnson (L) 5%
• Jill Stein (G) 3%

Survey of 496 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 25-29, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 29 - August 1, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (46%)
• Donald Trump (R) 38% (33%)

Survey of 389 likely Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted July 29 - August 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 6.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 14-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 GOP Primary Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Donald Trump 40%
• Ted Cruz 26%
• John Kasich 24%
• Undecided 10%

Among Registered Voters

• Donald Trump 36% (33%) {22%} [24%] (23%)
• John Kasich 26% (30%) {15%} [3%] (6%)
• Ted Cruz 24% (20%) {12%} [14%] (4%)
• Don't know 15% (17%) {25%} [26%] (20%)

Survey of 549 registered Republican primary voters, including a subsample of likely GOP primary voters, was conducted April 11-18, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 14-20, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 13-21, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18-23, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 19-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
• Ted Cruz (R) 35%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
• Donald Trump (R) 33%

Survey of 828 Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted March 14-20, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 33% {22%} [24%] (23%)
• John Kasich 30% {15%} [3%] (6%)
• Ted Cruz 20% {12%} [14%] (4%)
• Don't know 17% {25%} [26%] (20%)

Survey of 312 registered Republican primary voters was conducted March 14-20, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 13-21, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18-23, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 19-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 GOP Primary Poll

Among Registered GOP Voters 

• Donald Trump 22% [24%] (23%)
• Marco Rubio 16% [11%] (13%)
• John Kasich 15% [3%] (6%)
• Ted Cruz 12% [14%] (4%)
• Ben Carson 6% [5%] (22%)
• Don't know 25% [26%] (20%)

Among Likely GOP Voters

• Donald Trump 21%
• Marco Rubio 18%
• John Kasich 16%
• Ted Cruz 16%

Survey of 371 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 13-21, 2016. Results from the poll conducted January 18-23, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 19-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 46% (52%)
• Bernie Sanders 29% (18%)
• Martin O'Malley 2% (0%)
• Other 7% (12%)
• Don't know 16% (17%)

Survey of 303 Democratic primary voters was conducted January 18-23, 2016. Results from the poll conducted October 19-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 24% (23%)
• Ted Cruz 14% (4%)
• Marco Rubio 11% (13%)
• Ben Carson 5% (22%)
• Jeb Bush 5% (3%)
• Chris Christie 5% (3%)
• John Kasich 3% (6%)
• Carly Fiorina 2% (3%)
• Mike Huckabee 2% (1%)
• Rand Paul 2% (1%) 
• Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
• Don't know 26% (20%)

Survey of 276 Republican primary voters was conducted January 18-23, 2016. Results from the poll conducted October 19-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 52%
• Bernie Sanders 18%
• Martin O'Malley 0%
• Other 12%
• Don't know 17%

Survey of 303 Democratic primary voters was conducted October 19-25, 2015.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 23%
• Ben Carson 22%
• Marco Rubio 13%
• John Kasich 6%
• Ted Cruz 4%
• Chris Christie 3%
• Jeb Bush 3%
• Carly Fiorina 3%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• Bobby Jindal 1%
• Rand Paul 1% 
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Jim Gilmore 1%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• George Pataki 0%
• Don't know 20%

Survey of 231 Republican primary voters was conducted October 19-25, 2015.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll 

• Hillary Clinton 55% (58%)
• Joe Biden 5% (6%)
• Elizabeth Warren 4% (7%)
• Andrew Cuomo 2% (2%)
• Howard Dean 0% (1%)
• Some other candidate 5% (3%)
• Don't know 29% (23%)

Survey of 524 registered Democratic voters was conducted March 25-31, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 18-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 49% (52%)
• Mitt Romney 45% (43%)

Survey of 547 likely voters was conducted October 23-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-23, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 43%
• Undecided 3%

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama 50% {44%} [48%] (41%) {41%} [35%] (36%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {38%} [36%] (33%) {30%} [26%] (30%)
• Other 5% {3%} [5%] (8%) {6%} [10%] (8%)
• Don't know 6% {15%} [12%] (18%) {24%} [30%] (27%)

Among Men

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 45%
• Other 5%
• Don't know 5%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 56%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Other 5%
• Don't know 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 50% {46%} [47%] (45%) {45%} / 42% {45%} [44%] (47%) {44%} {+8%} 
• Mitt Romney 34% {32%} [27%] (27%) {25%} / 53% {49%} [48%] (44%) {35%} {-19%}

Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is best described by each of the following statements?

Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans?

• Barack Obama 59% {57%} [57%]
• Mitt Romney 32% {30%} [31%]

Is most prepared to fix our economic problems?

• Barack Obama 47% {42%} [44%] 
• Mitt Romney 43% {44%} [38%] 
  

Is closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage?

• Barack Obama 48% {44%} [47%]
• Mitt Romney 39% {42%} [37%]

Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military?

• Barack Obama 53% {47%} [51%]
• Mitt Romney 38% {37%} [33%]

Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues?

• Barack Obama 56% {53%} [57%]
• Mitt Romney 33% {34%} [29%]

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 18% {12%} [13%] (11%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
• Good 29% {31%} [29%] (26%) {31%} [28%] (25%)
• Fair 19% {23%} [30%] (29%) {29%} [31%] (33%)
• Poor 33% {33%} [28%] (35%) {30%} [32%] (33%)

Survey of 632 registered voters, including 392 likely voters, was conducted September 18-23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4.9 percentage points among likely voters. Party registration: 50% {50%} [50%] Democrat; 37% {37%} [37%] Republican; 11% {11%} [10%] Independent; 2% {1%} [2%] Something else.  Ideology: 35% {36%} [36%] Conservative; 34% {40%} [34%] Moderate; 26% {21%} [25%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 7-12, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 - June 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-29, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 44% [48%] (41%) {41%} [35%] (36%)
• Mitt Romney 38% [36%] (33%) {30%} [26%] (30%)
• Other 3% [5%] (8%) {6%} [10%] (8%)
• Don't know 15% [12%] (18%) {24%} [30%] (27%)

Note: Allocating voters who lean to a candidate produces a similar advantage for Obama, 47% to 42%, but shows that 7% of voters remain undecided.

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 46% [47%] (45%) {45%} / 45% [44%] (47%) {44%} {+1%} 
• Mitt Romney 32% [27%] (27%) {25%} / 49% [48%] (44%) {35%} {-17%}

Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is best described by each of the following statements?

Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans?

• Barack Obama 57% [57%]
• Mitt Romney 30% [31%]

Is most prepared to fix our economic problems?

• Mitt Romney 44% [38%] 
  
• Barack Obama 42% [44%]

Is closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage?

• Barack Obama 44% [47%]
• Mitt Romney 42% [37%]

Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military?

• Barack Obama 47% [51%]
• Mitt Romney 37% [33%]

Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues?

• Barack Obama 53% [57%]
• Mitt Romney 34% [29%]

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 12% [13%] (11%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
• Good 31% [29%] (26%) {31%} [28%] (25%)
• Fair 23% [30%] (29%) {29%} [31%] (33%)
• Poor 33% [28%] (35%) {30%} [32%] (33%)

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama has handled the economy?

• Excellent 7% [8%] (9%) {6%}
• Good 26% [30%] (23%) {23%}
• Fair 22% [26%] (26%) {27%}
• Poor 44% [35%] (42%) {43%}

Survey of 681 registered voters was conducted August 7-12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party registration: 50% [50%] Democrat; 37% [37%] Republican; 11% [10%] Independent; 1% [2%] Something else.  Ideology: 40% [34%] Moderate; 36% [36%] Conservative; 21% [25%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 29 - June 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-29, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 48% (41%) {41%} [35%] (36%)
• Mitt Romney 36% (33%) {30%} [26%] (30%)
• Other 5% (8%) {6%} [10%] (8%)
• Don't know 12% (18%) {24%} [30%] (27%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 47% (45%) {45%} / 44% (47%) {44%} {+3%} 
• Mitt Romney 27% (27%) {25%} / 48% (44%) {35%} {-21%}

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 13% (11%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
• Good 29% (26%) {31%} [28%] (25%)
• Fair 30% (29%) {29%} [31%] (33%)
• Poor 28% (35%) {30%} [32%] (33%)

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama has handled the economy?

• Excellent 8% (9%) {6%}
• Good 30% (23%) {23%}
• Fair 26% (26%) {27%}
• Poor 35% (42%) {43%}

Survey of 412 registered voters was conducted May 29 - June 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Party registration: 50% Democrat; 37% Republican; 10% Independent; 2% Something else.  Ideology: 36% Conservative; 34% Moderate; 25% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 14-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-29, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 30% (45%)
• Mitt Romney 28% (16%)
• Ron Paul 9% (7%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% (9%)
• Other/Don't know 27% (23%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 54% / 26% {+28%} 
• Mitt Romney 46% / 25% {+21%}
• Ron Paul 24% / 35% {-11%} 
• Newt Gingrich 30% / 45% {-15%}

Which one of these qualities matters most in deciding how you will vote in the upcoming primary?

• Strong moral character 26% (36%)
• Can beat Obama 25% (18%)
• The right experience 21% (23%)
• True conservative 16% (13%)
• Something else/Don’t know 12% (10%)

Survey of 505 registered Republican voters was conducted March 20-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 14-20, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Rick Santorum 45%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Other 1%
• Don't know 22%

Which candidate would be your second choice in the Republican presidential primary?

• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 19%
• Ron Paul 17%
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Other 6%
• Don't know 13%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Barack Obama 45% {43%} [38%] (39%)
• Rick Santorum 37% {30%} [25%] (31%)
• Other {8%} [11%] (10%)
• Do not know {19%} [26%] (20%)

• Barack Obama 41% {41%} [35%] (36%)
• Mitt Romney 33% {30%} [26%] (30%)
• Other 8% {6%} [10%] (8%)
• Don't know 18% {24%} [30%] (27%)

• Barack Obama 41%
• Ron Paul 28%
• Other 12%
• Don't know 19%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Newt Gingrich 31%
• Other 11%
• Don't know 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 45% {45%} / 47% {44%} {-2%} 
• Ron Paul 27% / 30% {-3%} 
• Rick Santorum 37% {29%} / 42% {45%} {-5%}
• Mitt Romney 27% {25%} / 44% {35%} {-17%}
• Newt Gingrich 15% / 56% {-41%}

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 11% {9%} [9%] (9%)
• Good 26% {31%} [28%] (25%)
• Fair 29% {29%} [31%] (33%)
• Poor 35% {30%} [32%] (33%)

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama has handled the economy?

• Excellent 9% {6%}
• Good 23% {23%}
• Fair 26% {27%}
• Poor 42% {43%}

Do you believe that Barack Obama has done a good enough job as President to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?

• Deserves re-election 47% {44%} [42%] (41%)
• Time for a change 49% {49%} [52%] (52%)

Survey of 592 registered voters, including a subsample of 278 GOP primary voters, was conducted February 14-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 5.9 percentage points among GOP primary voters. Results from the poll conducted January 17-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-29, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 35% (36%)
• Mitt Romney 26% (30%)
• Other 10% (8%)
• Don't know 30% (27%)

• Barack Obama 38% (39%)
• Rick Santorum 25% (31%)
• Other 11% (10%)
• Do not know 26% (20%)

• Barack Obama 38%
• Herman Cain 24%
• Other 10%
• Don't know 29%

• Barack Obama 40% (38%)
• Rick Perry 20% (27%)
• Other 11% (10%)
• Don't know 29% (26%)

Do you believe that Barack Obama has done a good enough job as President to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?

• Deserves re-election 42% (41%)
• Time for a change 52% (52%)

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 9% (9%)
• Good 28% (25%)
• Fair 31% (33%)
• Poor 32% (33%)

Survey of 419 registered voters was conducted October 24-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 49% (54%) Democrat; 38% (35%) Republican; 9% (11%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 39% (32%) Moderate; 33% (37%) Conservative; 20% (24%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 22-29, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 36%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Other 8%
• Don't know 27%

• Barack Obama 39%
• Rick Santorum 31%
• Other 10%
• Do not know 20%

• Barack Obama 38%
• Rick Perry 27%
• Other 10%
• Don't know 26%

• Barack Obama 42%
• Michele Bachmann 23%
• Other 12%
• Don't know 22%

Do you believe that Barack Obama has done a good enough job as President to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?

• Deserves re-election 41%
• Time for a change 52%

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Excellent 9% (7%)
• Good 25% (28%)
• Fair 33% (30%)
• Poor 33% (34%)

How would you rate the way that Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor?

• Excellent 6% (5%)
• Good 26% (26%)
• Fair 46% (39%)
• Poor 14% (13%)

How would you rate the way that Bob Casey, Jr. is handling his job as U.S. Senator?

• Excellent 5% (3%)
• Good 27% (26%)
• Fair 43% (39%)
• Poor 9% (9%)

How would you rate the way that Pat Toomey is handling his job as U.S. Senator?

• Excellent 5% (3%)
• Good 24% (25%)
• Fair 37% (36%)
• Poor 14% (10%)

The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow homosexual couples to get legally married?

• Strongly favor 33%
• Somewhat favor 17%
• Somewhat oppose 5%
• Strongly oppose 37%

Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

• Strongly favor 37%
• Somewhat favor 25%
• Somewhat oppose 5%
• Strongly oppose 29%

Survey of 407 registered voters was conducted August 22-29, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 54% Democrat; 35% Republican; 11% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 37% Conservative; 32% Moderate; 24% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted in March 2011 are in parentheses.

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