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Inside the numbers:
Matheson is trailing badly among women, who favor Love — Matheson’s first female challenger — by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin, according to the Tribune poll. Matheson has routinely won by double digits among women voters.
Of the nearly 291,000 active voters in the 4th District, more than 78,000 have already cast ballots, either by early voting in person or by mail. Half those are Republicans, 37 percent are unaffiliated and 12 percent are Democrats.
Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune Utah 2012 Senate Poll
Republican Primary
- Orrin Hatch 49%
- Jason Chaffetz 39%
- Undecided 12%
General Election
- Orrin Hatch 48%
- Jim Matheson 43%
- Undecided 9%
- Jason Chaffetz 49%
- Jim Matheson 43%
- Undecided 8%
Survey of 625 registered Utah voters, including a subsample of 305 Republican voters, was conducted August 8-10, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points; +/- 5.7 percentage points among Republican voters.
PPP (D) Utah 2012 Senatorial Survey
- Jim Matheson 45%
- Orrin Hatch 44%
- Jim Matheson 47%
- Jason Chaffetz 42%
- Orrin Hatch 55%
- Jan Graham 34%
- Jason Chaffetz 53%
- Jan Graham 34%
- Orrin Hatch 56%
- Sam Granato 31%
- Jason Chaffetz 54%
- Sam Granato 33%
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Orrin Hatch's job performance?
- Approve 46%
- Disapprove 43%
Do you think that Orrin Hatch is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
- Too liberal 20%
- Too conservative 32%
- About right 41%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Jim Matheson 59% / 28% {+31%}
- Jason Chaffetz 43% / 34% {+9%}
- Jan Graham 27% / 18% {+9%}
- Sam Granato 28% / 22% {+6%}
Survey of 732 Utah voters was conducted July 8-10, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 50% Republican; 22% Democrat; 28% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Somewhat conservative; 25% Moderate; 23% Very conservative; 14% Somewhat liberal; 8% Very liberal.
