Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 51% {43%} [44%] (38%) {43%} [48%] (46%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 46% {45%} [43%] (38%) {41%} [35%] (35%)
• Undecided 3% {12%} [13%] (25%) {16%} [17%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeff Flake 45% {40%} [44%] (30%) / 43% {41%} [35%] (37%) {+2%}
• Richard Carmona 40% {35%} [34%] (16%) / 43% {27%} [16%] (20%) {-3%}

Survey of 1,080 likely Arizona voters was conducted November 2-3, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 41% {46%} [44%] (42%) {42%} [46%] (46%) Republican; 34% {29%} [36%] (33%) {30%} [31%] (31%) Democrat; 25% {25%} [21%] (25%) {28%} [23%] (23%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% {29%} [24%] (30%) Moderate; 26% {26%} [27%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {17%} [21%] (23%) Very conservative; 16% {15%} [14%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {12%} [14%] (9%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 50% {47%} [47%] (47%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 44% {41%} [31%] (34%)
• Some other candidate 3% {3%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% {9%} [17%] (16%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeff Flake 48% {48%} / 44% {43%} {+4%}
• Richard Carmona 46% {50%} / 46% {31%} {0%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 21, 2012 for KPHO CBS5 (Phoenix, AZ). The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 26, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Arizona Republicans back Flake, while Carmona draws support from 76% of the state's Democrats. Carmona leads 56% to 33% among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Early voting has begun in Arizona, and among those who have already voted, Carmona leads 48% to 46%. Among those who say they are certain to vote in this election, Flake leads 50% to 45%.

Flake is viewed favorably by 48% of Arizona voters and unfavorably by 44%. This includes 27% with a Very Favorable view of him and 27% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Forty-six percent (46%) have a favorable opinion of Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general, while another 46% view him unfavorably. This includes 21% who regard him Very Favorably and 26% with a Very Unfavorable view. Carmona has gained more name recognition in the past month. Last month, nearly one-in-five voters did not know enough about him to venture an opinion.

Poll Watch: Behavior Research Center Rocky Mountain Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

BRC Rocky Mountain Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

Likely Voters

• Richard Carmona (D) 44%
• Jeff Flake (R) 40%
• Not sure 16%

Registered Voters

• Richard Carmona (D) 43%
• Jeff Flake (R) 39%
• Not sure 18%

Among Men

• Jeff Flake (R) 40%
• Richard Carmona (D) 39%
  
• Not sure 21%

Among Women

• Richard Carmona (D) 47%
• Jeff Flake (R) 37%
• Not sure 16%

Survey of 523 registered voters, including a subsample of likely voters, was conducted October 4-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Richard Carmona (D) 45% [43%] (38%) {41%} [35%] (35%)
• Jeff Flake (R) 43% [44%] (38%) {43%} [48%] (46%)
• Undecided 12% [13%] (25%) {16%} [17%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Carmona 35% [34%] (16%) / 27% [16%] (20%) {+8%}
• Jeff Flake 40% [44%] (30%) / 41% [35%] (37%) {-1%}

Survey of 595 likely Arizona voters was conducted October 1-3, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 46% [44%] (42%) {42%} [46%] (46%) Republican; 29% [36%] (33%) {30%} [31%] (31%) Democrat; 25% [21%] (25%) {28%} [23%] (23%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% [24%] (30%) Moderate; 26% [27%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 17% [21%] (23%) Very conservative; 15% [14%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 12% [14%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 47% [47%] (47%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 41% [31%] (34%)
• Some other candidate 3% [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 9% [17%] (16%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Carmona 50% / 31% {+19%}
• Jeff Flake 48% / 43% {+5%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 26, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Flake draws support from 76% of Arizona Republicans. Carmona now receives support from 82% of Democrats, a 13-point jump since June, and 12% of GOP voters in the state. Voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer Flake by a 50% to 40% margin.

Flake holds a double-digit advantage among male voters, while Carmona has a modest 44% to 41% edge among women. The Republican leads among all age demographic groups.

Poll Watch: Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Richard Carmona (D) 44%
• Jeff Flake (R) 39%
• Undecided 16%

Note: The survey was conducted by a GOP-friendly firm. The authors of the poll did not want to be identified because they were not authorized to release the details.  

Survey of 620 voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 37% Republican; 34% Democrat; 29% Independent.
 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 44% (38%) {43%} [48%] (46%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 43% (38%) {41%} [35%] (35%)
• Undecided 13% (25%) {16%} [17%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Carmona 34% (16%) / 16% (20%) {+18%}
• Jeff Flake 44% (30%) / 35% (37%) {+9%}

Survey of 993 likely Arizona voters was conducted September 7-9, 2012.  Party ID: 44% (42%) {42%} [46%] (46%) Republican; 36% (33%) {30%} [31%] (31%) Democrat; 21% (25%) {28%} [23%] (23%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Richard Carmona (D) 38% {41%} [35%] (35%)
• Jeff Flake (R) 38% {43%} [48%] (46%)
• Undecided 25% {16%} [17%] (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Carmona 16% / 20% {-4%}
• Jeff Flake 30% / 37% {-7%}

Survey of 833 Arizona voters was conducted July 23-25, 2012.  Party ID: 42% {42%} [46%] (46%) Republican; 33% {30%} [31%] (31%) Democrat; 25% {28%} [23%] (23%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 47% (47%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 31% (34%)
• Some other candidate 5% (3%)
• Undecided 17% (16%)

• Wil Cardon (R) 38% (39%)
  
• Richard Carmona (D) 38% (38%)
  
• Some other candidate 5% (3%)
  
• Undecided 19% (20%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Flake earns the support of 82% of Republicans, while Cardon is favored by just 65% of the voters in his own party. Carmona picks up 77% Democratic support against Cardon but just 69% against Flake. Both GOP candidates lead Carmona among voters not affiliated with either political party.

Among all voters in Arizona, 19% have a Very Favorable impression of Flake, while 12% share a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Cardon is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) and Very Unfavorably by 16%.

Carmona is seen Very Favorably by 12% and Very Unfavorably by 12%.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Arizona voters agree with the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this week on the state’s controversial immigration law, but a plurality (42%) disagree with that decision. Twenty-three percent (23%) are undecided.

Among those voters in the state who agree with the ruling, Flake leads Carmona 41% to 35%, while Carmona is ahead 50% to 31% when pitted against Cardon. Both Republicans hold a sizable lead among those who disagree with the ruling.

Poll Watch: PPP/Project New America (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP/Project New America (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 43% [48%] (46%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 41% [35%] (35%)
• Undecided 16% [17%] (19%)

Survey of 791 likely Arizona voters was conducted June 4-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 42% [46%] (46%) Republican; 30% [31%] (31%) Democrat; 28% [23%] (23%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 48% (46%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 35% (35%)
• Undecided 17% (19%)

• Will Cardon (R) 40% (37%)
• Richard Carmona (D) 37% (33%)
• Undecided 23% (30%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jeff Flake 33% (36%) / 27% (30%) {+6%}
• Richard Carmona 19% (13%) / 15% (14%) {+4%}
• Wil Cardon 15% (5%) / 25% (13%) {-10%}

Survey of 500 Arizona voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 46% (46%) Republican; 31% (31%) Democrat; 23% (23%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 27% (22%) Somewhat conservative; 24% (30%) Moderate; 21% (23%) Very conservative; 14% (17%) Somewhat liberal; 14% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Arizona 2012 Senatorial Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Arizona 2012 Senate Poll

• Jeff Flake (R) 44%
• Richard Carmona (D) 40%
• Undecided 16%

• Will Cardon (R) 41%
• Richard Carmona (D) 40%
• Undecided 19%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Carmona 22% / 16% {+6%}
• Jeff Flake 30% / 31% {-1%}
• Wil Cardon 13% / 28% {-15%}

Survey of 909 likely voters was conducted April 30 - May 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.25 percentage points. Party ID: 41% Republican; 34% Democrat; 25% Independent. Political ideology: 43% Conservative; 37% Moderate; 16% Liberal.