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- John Brunner 35% {25%} [18%] (6%)
- Todd Akin 30% {23%} [23%] (29%)
- Sarah Steelman 25% {28%} [32%] (40%)
- Someone else 2% {4%}
- Undecided 8% {20%} [28%] (26%)
Among Men
- John Brunner 40% {30%} [21%] (9%)
- Sarah Steelman 29% {30%} [30%] (40%)
- Todd Akin 26% {24%} [21%] (27%)
- Someone else 2% {3%}
- Undecided 3% {13%} [28%] (24%)
Among Women
- Todd Akin 33% {23%} [25%] (30%)
- John Brunner 31% {18%} [13%] (2%)
- Sarah Steelman 21% {26%} [34%] (40%)
- Someone else 2% {5%}
- Undecided 12% {29%} [28%] (28%)
Would you say you are very excited, somewhat excited, or not that excited about voting in the primary election?
- Very excited 41%
- Somewhat excited 32%
- Not that excited 27%
Very Excited
- Todd Akin 35%
- John Brunner 33%
- Sarah Steelman 28%
- Someone else 0%
- Undecided 3%
Somewhat Excited
- John Brunner 37%
- Todd Akin 31%
- Sarah Steelman 22%
- Someone else 1%
- Undecided 9%
Not That Excited
- John Brunner 36%
- Sarah Steelman 23%
- Todd Akin 21%
- Someone else 6%
- Undecided 14%
Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
- Are an Evangelical 57%
- Are not 43%
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 54% {34%} [33%] (31%) / 17% {10%} [8%] (12%) {+37%}
- John Brunner 54% {38%} [29%] (8%) / 18% {9%} [7%] (10%) {+36%}
- Sarah Steelman 41% {39%} [39%] (32%) / 35% {16%} [13%] (14%) {+6%}
Survey of 590 likely GOP primary voters was conducted August 4-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Political ideology: 47% {39%} [40%] Very conservative; 29% {39%} [38%] Somewhat conservative; 14% {17%} [15%] Moderate; 3% {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 2% {1%} [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses.
- John Brunner (R) 49% (51%) {45%} [49%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% (41%) {45%} [42%]
- Sarah Steelman (R) 49% (51%) {49%} [51%] (47%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% (39%) {42%} [41%] (45%)
- Todd Akin (R) 47% (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.McCaskill earns roughly 38% support from voters not affiliated with either major political party against all three challengers. Those challengers draw 46% to 50% of the vote from unaffiliated voters.
Just 13% of Missouri voters share a very favorable opinion of Steelman, while 19% regard her very unfavorably. For Brunner, very favorables are 16%, very unfavorables 19%. Akin is seen very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 22%. Views of all three candidates have grown more negative since June.
- John Brunner 33%
- Sarah Steelman 27%
- Todd Akin 17%
- Mark Memoly 3%
- Mark Patrick Lodes 1%
- Jerry Beck 0%
- Bob Poole 0%
- Hector Maldonado 0%
- Undecided 19%
GENERAL ELECTION
- John Brunner (R) 52%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41%
- Sarah Steelman (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41%
- Todd Akin (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- John Brunner 34% / 12% {+22%}
- Sarah Steelman 32% / 14% {+18%}
- Todd Akin 24% / 11% {+13%}
- Claire McCaskill 37% / 44% {-7%}
Survey of 625 likely voters, including an oversample of 400 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted July 23-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points among all likely voters; +/- 5 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Party ID: 36% Republican; 32% Democrat; 32% Independent.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Sarah Steelman (R) 51% {49%} [51%] (47%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 39% {42%} [41%] (45%)
- John Brunner (R) 51% {45%} [49%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41% {45%} [42%]
- Todd Akin (R) 50% {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 42% {43%} [43%] (47%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted June 7, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses. The Republicans post double-digit leads among male voters but are just slightly ahead of McCaskill among female voters. Fifty-three (53%) to 56% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the GOP candidates to the incumbent.
Nineteen percent (19%) of Missouri voters share a very favorable opinion of Steelman, while 13% regard her very unfavorably. For Brunner, very favorables are 19%, very unfavorables 16%. Akin is seen very favorably by 18% and very unfavorably by 17%.
- Sarah Steelman 28% [32%] (40%)
- John Brunner 25% [18%] (6%)
- Todd Akin 23% [23%] (29%)
- Another candidate 4%
- Undecided 20% [28%] (26%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- John Brunner 38% [29%] (8%) / 9% [7%] (10%) {+29%}
- Todd Akin 34% [33%] (31%) / 10% [8%] (12%) {+24%}
- Sarah Steelman 39% [39%] (32%) / 16% [13%] (14%) {+23%}
Survey of 430 GOP primary voters was conducted May 24-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Party ID: 71% Republican; 28% Independent/Other; 1% Democrat. Political ideology: 39% [38%] Somewhat conservative; 39% [40%] Very conservative; 17% [15%] Moderate; 5% [4%] Somewhat liberal; 1% [3%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses.
- Todd Akin (R) 45% [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% [43%] (43%) {45%} [45%] (45%)
- Sarah Steelman (R) 44% [43%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (44%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 46% [43%] (46%) {47%}
- John Brunner (R) 44% [43%] (37%) {41%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Sarah Steelman 30% [22%] (23%) {26%} [22%] (22%) / 26% [24%] (25%) {22%} [22%] (19%) {+4%}
- Todd Akin 21% [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 21% [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {0%}
- John Brunner 20% [18%] (7%) {8%} / 23% [18%] (19%) {19%} {-3%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 40% [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 50% [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Survey of 602 Missouri voters was conducted May 24-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 33% [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 33% [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 25% [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 21% [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 14% [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 9% [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Sarah Steelman (R) 49% [51%] (47%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 42% [41%] (45%)
- Todd Akin (R) 48% [50%] (45%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% [43%] (47%)
- John Brunner (R) 45% [49%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45% [42%]
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted April 17, 2012. The
margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll
conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll
conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
All three GOP contenders continue to lead among male voters in the state. Among female voters, Steelman leads the incumbent by five, while Brunner trails her by five. Akin runs even with McCaskill among women.
Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the Republicans in every matchup, but Steelman runs strongest among this group.
Most married voters favor the Republicans; the majority of unmarrieds support the Democrat.
McCaskill is viewed Very Favorably by 23% of Missouri voters and Very Unfavorably by 33%.
Thirteen percent (13%) share a Very Favorable opinion of Steelman, while 14% regard her Very Unfavorably. For Akin, Very Favorables are 14%, Very Unfavorables 13%. Brunner is seen Very Favorably by 11% and Very Unfavorably by 13%.
Only six percent (6%) have no opinion of McCaskill, while roughly one-in-four voters don’t know enough about any of her opponents to express an opinion about them.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Sarah Steelman (R) 51% (47%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41% (45%)
- Todd Akin (R) 50% (45%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% (47%)
- John Brunner (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 42%
- Tom Schweich (R) 47%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43%
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted March 14-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses. All four Republican hopefuls lead McCaskill by double-digits among men, but she is nearly tied with each challenger among female voters in the state.
The Republican in each matchup holds a modest advantage over the incumbent among voters not affiliated with either political party.
McCaskill, who defeated GOP incumbent Jim Talent in 2006, is viewed very favorably by 22% of voters in the state. Thirty-eight percent (38%) share a very unfavorable opinion of the first woman from Missouri elected to the Senate.
Eighteen percent (18%) view Steelman very favorably, while 16% have a very unfavorable impression of her.
Akin earns very favorable reviews from 15% of Missouri voters and very unfavorable marks from 19%.
For Brunner, very favorables total 13% and very unfavorables are 17%.
Only seven percent (7%) have a very favorable opinion of Schweich, while 17% view him very unfavorably.
Rasmussen Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Sarah Steelman (R) 47%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45%
- Other 3%
- Not Sure 4%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 47%
- Todd Akin (R) 45%
- Other 5%
- Not Sure 3%
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted November 9, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.
PPP (D) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% {45%} [45%] (45%)
- Sarah Steelman (R) 42% {42%} [42%] (44%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45% {46%} [45%]
- Todd Akin (R) 43% {45%} [44%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 46% {47%}
- John Brunner (R) 37% {41%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Sarah Steelman 23% {26%} [22%] (22%) / 25% {22%} [22%] (19%) {-2%}
- Todd Akin 18% {18%}[20%] / 26% {21%} [24%] {-8%}
- John Brunner 7% {8%} / 19% {19%} {-12%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 43% {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 47% {47%} [45%] (44%)
Survey of 632 Missouri voters was conducted September 9-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 33% {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 30% {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 27% {32%} [27%] Moderate; 26% {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 23% {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 14% {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 10% {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
