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SurveyUSA Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 51% (40%)
- Todd Akin (R) 36% (51%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 8%
- Undecided 5% (5%)
Among Independents
- Claire McCaskill (D) 55% (33%)
- Todd Akin (R) 31% (49%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 6%
- Undecided 8% (8%)
Among Moderates
- Claire McCaskill (D) 67% (50%)
- Todd Akin (R) 19% (37%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 7%
- Undecided 7% (6%)
Among Men
- Claire McCaskill (D) 54% (40%)
- Todd Akin (R) 35% (49%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 8%
- Undecided 4% (4%)
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 49% (39%)
- Todd Akin (R) 37% (53%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 8%
- Undecided 7% (5%)
Survey of 589 likely Missouri voters was conducted October 28 - November 3,
2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (37%) Republican; 31% (37%) Democrat; 29% (26%) Independent. Ideology: 41% (38%) Moderate; 40% (40%)
Conservative; 15% (19%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 48% (46%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
- Todd Akin (R) 44% (40%) {40%} [44%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 6% (6%) {9%}
- Undecided 2% (8%) {5%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin (R) 52% (45%) {40%} [48%] (50%) {46%} [45%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 38% (47%) {44%} [40%] (36%) {44%} [43%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 6% (4%) {10%}
- Undecided 3% (5%) {6%}
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 55% (45%) {47%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 38% (36%) {40%} [42%] (39%) {43%} [41%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 6% (9%) {8%}
- Undecided 1% (10%) {4%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 29% (31%) {33%} [33%] (24%) {21%} [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 56% (57%) {55%} [56%] (58%) {21%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {-27%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin 31% (33%) {34%} [36%] (27%) {24%} [20%] / 53% (58%) {54%} [56%] (55%) {25%} [32%] {-22%}
Among Women
- Todd Akin 27% (30%) {32%} [31%] (22%) {18%} [17%] / 58% (56%) {55%} [56%] (60%) {18%} [24%] {-31%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 42% (44%) {44%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 50% (51%) {49%} [55%] (53%) {50%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Survey of 835 likely Missouri voters was conducted November 2-3,
2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% (37%) {33%} [35%] (39%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 33% (34%) {32%} [33%] (30%) {35%} [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 32% (30%) {35%} [32%] (32%) {33%} [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 28% (26%) {29%} [33%] (27%) {30%} [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 27% (26%) {27%} [29%] (29%) {25%} [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 20% (20%) {20%} [19%] (19%) {21%} [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 13% (16%) {14%} [12%] (16%) {14%} [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 12% (12%) {11%} [8%] (9%) {9%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 19-21, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 28-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45% [50%] (44%)
- Todd Akin (R) 43% [41%] (49%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 4%
- Undecided 8%
Among Men
- Todd Akin (R) 48% [46%] (52%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% [44%] (42%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 3%
- Undecided 6%
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 47% [55%] (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 38% [37%] (46%)
- Jonathan Dine (L) 5%
- Undecided 10%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Claire McCaskill 40% [39%] (37%) / 47% [41%] (44%) {-7%}
- Todd Akin 28% [17%] (24%) / 42% [56%] (11%) {-14%}
Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted October 23-25, 2012
for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The margin of error is
+/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 35% Republican; 31% Democrat; 34% Independent. Results from the poll conducted August 22-23, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2012 are in parentheses.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 46% {46%} [45%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
- Todd Akin (R) 40% {40%} [44%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 6% {9%}
- Undecided 8% {5%}
Among Men
- Claire McCaskill (D) 47% {44%} [40%] (36%) {44%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 45% {40%} [48%] (50%) {46%} [45%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 4% {10%}
- Undecided 5% {6%}
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45% {47%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 36% {40%} [42%] (39%) {43%} [41%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 9% {8%}
- Undecided 10% {4%}
(
Among Dine Voters)
If you had to choose between Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
- Todd Akin 45% {33%}
- Claire McCaskill 23% {19%}
- Not sure 32% {48%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 31% {33%} [33%] (24%) {21%} [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 57% {55%} [56%] (58%) {21%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {-26%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin 33% {34%} [36%] (27%) {24%} [20%] / 58% {54%} [56%] (55%) {25%} [32%] {-25%}
Among Women
- Todd Akin 30% {32%} [31%] (22%) {18%} [17%] / 56% {55%} [56%] (60%) {18%} [24%] {-26%}
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jonathan Dine?
- Favorable 4%
- Unfavorable 15%
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 44% {44%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 51% {49%} [55%] (53%) {50%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Survey of 582 likely Missouri voters was conducted October 19-21,
2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 37% {33%}
[35%] (39%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 34% {32%} [33%] (30%) {35%} [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 30% {35%} [32%] (32%) {33%} [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 26% {29%} [33%] (27%) {30%} [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 26% {27%} [29%] (29%) {25%} [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 20% {20%} [19%]
(19%) {21%} [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 16% {14%} [12%] (16%)
{14%} [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 12% {11%} [8%] (9%) {9%} [10%]
(10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 28-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 51% [51%] (49%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 43% [45%] (43%) {38%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Some other candidate 3% [1%] (4%) {9%} [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
- Undecided 3% [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For
each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Claire McCaskill
- Very favorable 29% [14%] (24%) {19%}
- Somewhat favorable 18% [27%] (25%) {29%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 16% [11%] (15%) {12%}
- Very unfavorable 35% [44%] (33%) {36%}
Todd Akin
- Very favorable 10% [30%] (16%) {11%}
- Somewhat favorable 25% [17%] (23%) {24%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 19% [17%] (14%) {16%}
- Very unfavorable 43% [34%] (42%) {47%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Claire McCaskill 47% [41%] (49%) {48%} / 51% [55%] (48%) {48%} {-4%}
- Todd Akin 35% [47%] (39%) {35%} / 62% [51%] (56%) {63%} {-27%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 2, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Ninety-six percent (96%) of Missouri voters are certain they will vote this election. Among those who are certain to vote, McCaskill leads 51% to 45%.
Akin leads by 16 among male voters in the state, but McCaskill holds a 26-point lead among female voters.
McCaskill is supported by 93% of voters in her own political party, while Akin is backed by 84% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the incumbent 45% to 42%.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 46% [45%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
- Todd Akin (R) 40% [44%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 9%
- Undecided 5%
Among Men
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% [40%] (36%) {44%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 40% [48%] (50%) {46%} [45%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 10%
- Undecided 6%
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 47% [49%] (49%) {45%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 40% [42%] (39%) {43%} [41%]
- Jonathan Dine (L) 8%
- Undecided 4%
(
Among Dine Voters)
If you had to choose between Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Todd Akin, who would you vote for?
- Todd Akin 33%
- Claire McCaskill 19%
- Not sure 48%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 33% [33%] (24%) {21%} [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 55% [56%] (58%) {21%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {-22%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin 34% [36%] (27%) {24%} [20%] / 54% [56%] (55%) {25%} [32%] {-20%}
Among Women
- Todd Akin 32% [31%] (22%) {18%} [17%] / 55% [56%] (60%) {18%} [24%] {-23%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 44% [40%] (41%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 49% [55%] (53%) {50%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Do you consider Claire McCaskill to be ‘ladylike,’ or not?
- She is 46%
- She is not 27%
- Not sure 27%
Do you think women can become pregnant from being raped, or not?
- They can 93%
- They cannot 4%
- Not sure 4%
Survey of 700 likely Missouri voters was conducted October 1-3,
2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 33%
[35%] (39%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 32% [33%] (30%) {35%} [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 35% [32%] (32%) {33%} [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% [33%] (27%) {30%} [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 27% [29%] (29%) {25%} [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [19%]
(19%) {21%} [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 14% [12%] (16%)
{14%} [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 11% [8%] (9%) {9%} [10%]
(10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 28-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 51% (49%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 45% (43%) {38%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Some other candidate 1% (4%) {9%} [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
- Undecided 3% (4%) {5%} [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For
each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Todd Akin
- Very favorable 30% (16%) {11%}
- Somewhat favorable 17% (23%) {24%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 17% (14%) {16%}
- Very unfavorable 34% (42%) {47%}
Claire McCaskill
- Very favorable 14% (24%) {19%}
- Somewhat favorable 27% (25%) {29%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 11% (15%) {12%}
- Very unfavorable 44% (33%) {36%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 47% (39%) {35%} / 51% (56%) {63%} {-4%}
- Claire McCaskill 41% (49%) {48%} / 55% (48%) {48%} {-14%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
The candidates are tied among male voters in the state, but McCaskill leads Akin by 12 points among female voters.
McCaskill is supported by 95% of voters in her own political party, while Akin is backed by 84% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either party are evenly divided.
Overall, (92%) of Missouri voters are certain they will vote this election. Among those who are certain to vote, 50% prefer McCaskill, while 46% will support Akin.
We Ask America (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 46.0%
- Todd Akin (R) 45.2%
- Undecided 8.8%
Among Democrats
- Claire McCaskill (D) 87.4%
- Todd Akin (R) 8.0%
- Undecided 4.6%
Among Republicans
- Todd Akin (R) 78.8%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 12.5%
- Undecided 8.7%
Among Independents
- Todd Akin (R) 48.6%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 39.0%
- Undecided 12.4%
Survey of 1,145 likely voters was conducted September 25-27, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 49% {48%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 43% {38%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Some other candidate 4% {9%} [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
- Not sure 4% {5%} [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Claire McCaskill
- Very favorable 24% {19%}
- Somewhat favorable 25% {29%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 15% {12%}
- Very unfavorable 33% {36%}
Todd Akin
- Very favorable 16% {11%}
- Somewhat favorable 23% {24%}
- Somewhat unfavorable 14% {16%}
- Very unfavorable 42% {47%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Claire McCaskill 49% {48%} / 48% {48%} {+1%}
- Todd Akin 39% {35%} / 56% {63%} {-17%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses. Akin has a five-point lead among male voters but trails among female voters by 15 points. Still, that’s an improvement from a month ago.
While McCaskill has 96% support among the state’s Democrats, just 86% of Missouri Republicans favor Akin. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the incumbent by a 47% to 36% margin. That’s an increase in GOP support for Akin from the previous survey but a loss of unaffiliated voters.
While Akin holds a small lead among older voters, McCaskill is ahead by a two-to-one margin among those under 40.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 45% (43%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
- Todd Akin (R) 44% (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
Among Men
- Todd Akin (R) 48% (50%) {46%} [45%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 40% (36%) {44%} [43%]
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 49% (49%) {45%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 42% (39%) {43%} [41%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 33% (24%) {21%} [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 56% (58%) {21%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {-23%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin 36% (27%) {24%} [20%] / 56% (55%) {25%} [32%] {-20%}
Among Women
- Todd Akin 31% (22%) {18%} [17%] / 56% (60%) {18%} [24%] {-25%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 40% (41%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 55% (53%) {50%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Do you think Todd Akin should withdraw from the U.S. Senate race, or not?
- He should withdraw 37%
- He should not 54%
Do you accept Todd Akin’s apology for the comments he made last week, or not?
- Accept his apology 53%
- Do not 40%
Survey of 621 likely Missouri voters was conducted August 28-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 35% (39%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 33% (30%) {35%} [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 32% (32%) {33%} [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 33% (27%) {30%} [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 29% (29%) {25%} [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 19% (19%) {21%} [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 12% (16%) {14%} [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 8% (9%) {9%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
- Claire McCaskill (D) 50% (44%)
- Todd Akin (R) 41% (49%)
Among Men- Todd Akin (R) 46% (52%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% (42%)
Among Women- Claire McCaskill (D) 55% (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 37% (46%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Claire McCaskill 39% (37%) / 41% (44%) {-2%}
- Todd Akin 17% (24%) / 56% (11%) {-39%}
In the wake of his comments about rape and abortion, do you feel Senate candidate Todd Akin should or should not withdraw as the Republican Party nominee?
- Should withdraw 47%
- Should not withdraw 37%
Among Men
- Should withdraw 41%
- Should not withdraw 39%
Among Women
- Should withdraw 53%
- Should not withdraw 35%
Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted August 22-23, 2012 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2012 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Claire McCaskill (D) 48% [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
- Todd Akin (R) 38% [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Some other candidate 9% [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
- Not sure 5% [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Claire McCaskill
- Very favorable 19%
- Somewhat favorable 29%
- Somewhat unfavorable 12%
- Very unfavorable 36%
Todd Akin
- Very favorable 11%
- Somewhat favorable 24%
- Somewhat unfavorable 16%
- Very unfavorable 47%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Claire McCaskill 48% / 48% {0%}
- Todd Akin 35% / 63% {-28%}
How closely have you followed news stories concerning Todd Akin’s comments about rape?
- Very closely 64%
- Somewhat closely 29%
- Not very closely 5%
- Not at all 1%
Should Akin withdraw from the campaign and have the Republicans select another candidate to run against Senator Claire McCaskill?
- 41% Yes
- 42% No
- 17% Not sure
Note: Most Republicans (53%) think Akin should quit; most Democrats (56%) do not, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted August 22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Male voters are evenly divided between the two candidates, but McCaskill holds a 20-point lead among female voters. Akin has a slight 44% to 40% lead among married voters, but among unmarrieds he now trails by a whopping 70% to 21% margin.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of conservatives continue to support Akin, but 63% of moderates and 93% of liberals favor McCaskill.
Notably, 13% of Republicans now prefer a third party candidate as do 14% of unaffiliated voters. Among Democrats, none now favor a third party option and Democratic support for McCaskill has solidified. She now earns 96% of the vote from her party. Only 70% of Republicans would vote for the current nominee of their party. That’s down from 86% earlier.
- Todd Akin (R) 44% {45%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [44%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% {44%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [45%]
Among Men
- Todd Akin (R) 50% {46%} [45%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 36% {44%} [43%]
Among Women
- Claire McCaskill (D) 49% {45%} [43%]
- Todd Akin (R) 39% {43%} [41%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Todd Akin 24% {21%} [19%] (18%) {18%}[20%] / 58% {21%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [24%] {-34%}
Among Men
- Todd Akin 27% {24%} [20%] / 55% {25%} [32%] {-28%}
Among Women
- Todd Akin 22% {18%} [17%] / 60% {18%} [24%] {-38%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
- Approve 41% {40%} [42%] (43%) {46%} [46%] (43%)
- Disapprove 53% {50%} [49%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (44%)
Do you think Todd Akin’s recent comments over the weekend about rape were appropriate or inappropriate, or are you not familiar with what Akin said about rape?
- Appropriate 9%
- Inappropriate 75%
- Not familiar with Akin's comments 16%
This past weekend, Todd Akin said that abortion should be illegal even in the case of rape, because, “If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.” Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with Akin’s comments?
- Strongly agree 6%
- Somewhat agree 12%
- Somewhat disagree 14%
- Strongly disagree 65%
- Not sure 4%
Generally speaking, do you identify as pro-choice or pro-life on the issue of abortion?
- Pro-choice 40%
- Pro-life 52%
- Not sure 7%
Among Republicans
- Pro-choice 23%
- Pro-life 73%
- Not sure 4%
Among Democrats
- Pro-choice 66%
- Pro-life 22%
- Not sure 12%
Which of the following statements comes closest to your position on abortion: it should be legal in all cases; it should generally be illegal with exception for rape, incest, or protection of the mother’s life; or should it be completely illegal?
- Legal in all cases 33%
- Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother's life 47%
- Completely illegal 14%
- Not sure 5%
Among Republicans
- Legal in all cases 16%
- Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother's life 55%
- Completely illegal 24%
- Not sure 5%
Among Democrats
- Legal in all cases 59%
- Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother's life 34%
- Completely illegal 4%
- Not sure 3%
Survey of 500 likely Missouri voters was conducted on the evening of August 20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 39% {33%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (39%) Republican; 30% {35%} [39%] (33%) {37%} [38%] (36%) Democrat; 32% {33%} [27%] (30%) {25%} [25%] (26%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% {25%} [22%] (26%) {25%} [27%] Somewhat conservative; 27% {30%} [27%] (27%) {32%} [27%] Moderate; 19% {21%} [20%] (23%) {20%} [22%] Very conservative; 16% {14%} [21%] (14%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 9% {9%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 24-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in parentheses.
SurveyUSA Missouri 2012 Senate Poll
- Todd Akin (R) 51%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 40%
- Other 4%
- Undecided 5%
Among Independents
- Todd Akin (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 33%
- Other 11%
- Undecided 8%
Among Moderates
- Claire McCaskill (D) 50%
- Todd Akin (R) 37%
- Other 7%
- Undecided 6%
Among Men
- Todd Akin (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 40%
- Other 7%
- Undecided 4%
Among Women
- Todd Akin (R) 53%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 39%
- Other 3%
- Undecided 5%
Survey of 585 likely Missouri voters was conducted August 9-12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Party ID: 37% Democrat; 37% Republican; 26% Independent. Ideology: 40% Conservative; 38% Moderate; 19% Liberal.
- John Brunner (R) 49% (51%) {45%} [49%]
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% (41%) {45%} [42%]
- Sarah Steelman (R) 49% (51%) {49%} [51%] (47%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 43% (39%) {42%} [41%] (45%)
- Todd Akin (R) 47% (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44% (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.McCaskill earns roughly 38% support from voters not affiliated with either major political party against all three challengers. Those challengers draw 46% to 50% of the vote from unaffiliated voters.
Just 13% of Missouri voters share a very favorable opinion of Steelman, while 19% regard her very unfavorably. For Brunner, very favorables are 16%, very unfavorables 19%. Akin is seen very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 22%. Views of all three candidates have grown more negative since June.
- John Brunner 33%
- Sarah Steelman 27%
- Todd Akin 17%
- Mark Memoly 3%
- Mark Patrick Lodes 1%
- Jerry Beck 0%
- Bob Poole 0%
- Hector Maldonado 0%
- Undecided 19%
GENERAL ELECTION
- John Brunner (R) 52%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41%
- Sarah Steelman (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 41%
- Todd Akin (R) 49%
- Claire McCaskill (D) 44%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- John Brunner 34% / 12% {+22%}
- Sarah Steelman 32% / 14% {+18%}
- Todd Akin 24% / 11% {+13%}
- Claire McCaskill 37% / 44% {-7%}
Survey of 625 likely voters, including an oversample of 400 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted July 23-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points among all likely voters; +/- 5 percentage points among likely GOP primary voters. Party ID: 36% Republican; 32% Democrat; 32% Independent.
