Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% {49%} [49%] (48%) {44%} [45%] (42%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [44%]
• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% {46%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [45%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {50%} [45%]

Among Independents

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 55% {52%} [46%] {42%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 41% {40%} [44%] {45%}

Among Moderates

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 62% {63%} [56%] {54%}
  
• Tommy Thompson (R) 35% {28%} [34%] {33%} 

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 52% {48%} [48%] {54%}
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% {47%} [46%] {40%}

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 54% {50%} [51%] {48%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 44% {43%} [42%] {44%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 44% {43%} [42%] (40%) {46%} [40%] {41%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [42%] / 48% {50%} [50%] (53%) {43%} [47%] {44%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [42%] {-4%}
• Tammy Baldwin 44% {44%} [44%] (44%) {40%} [37%] {29%} [31%] (28%) {26%} [27%] / 50% {47%} [45%] (45%) {45%} [39%] {31%} [31%] (30%) {28%} [25%] {-6%} 

Survey of 1,256 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted November 2-3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 35% {34%} [34%] (32%) {32%} [30%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 32% {33%} [31%] (36%) {34%} [32%] (35%) {32%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 33% {33%} [35%] (32%) {34%} [38%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (32%) {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% {29%} [29%] {29%} [28%] [31%] (30%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {24%} [26%] {24%} [26%] [25%] (25%) {21%} [23%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 20% {18%} [19%] {20%} [18%] [19%] (19%) {22%} [20%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 18% {16%} [15%] {16%} [18%] [15%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (18%) Very conservative; 9% {12%} [11%] {10%} [10%] [10%] (10%) {11%} [10%] (7%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.5% (51.8%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 46.3% (40.4%)
• Third party candidate 5.2%

Survey of 1,210 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% [48%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% [47%] (46%) {51%} [49%] (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 1% [2%] (3%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Undecided 2% [4%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tommy Thompson 

• Very favorable 25% [24%] (23%) {25%} [22%] (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 22% [24%] (25%) {22%} [27%] (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% [17%] (16%) {16%} [18%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 34% [33%] (32%) {36%} [28%] (17%)

Tammy Baldwin

• Very favorable 28% [21%] (26%) {30%} [32%] (22%)
• Somewhat favorable 19% [21%] (19%) {22%} [17%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 8% [15%] (8%) {10%} [13%] (16%)
• Very unfavorable 41% [39%] (41%) {36%} [31%] (33%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 47% [48%] (48%) {47%} [49%] (59%) / 49% [50%] (48%) {52%} [46%] (37%) {-2%}
• Tammy Baldwin 47% [42%] (45%) {52%} [49%] (43%) / 49% [54%] (49%) {46%} [44%] (49%) {-2%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Wisconsin voters have already voted in this year's election. Among these voters, Baldwin leads 57% to 39%.

Both candidates draw roughly 90% support from their respective parties. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties, Baldwin leads 50% to 42%.

Thompson leads by 14 points among male voters in the state but trails by 12 among female voters. Voters under 40 prefer Baldwin, while those over 40 favor Thompson.

Poll Watch: St. Norbert College/WPR Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

St. Norbert College/WPR Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 46%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 43%
• Not sure 8%

Survey of 402 likely voters was conducted October 25-29, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Party ID: 42% Democrat; 32% Republican; 22% Independent. Ideology: 21% Very conservative; 36% Somewhat conservative; 28% Somewhat liberal; 10% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% [49%] (48%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 47% [45%] (46%)

Survey of 1,065 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% [33%] (33%) Democrat; 29% [28%] (28%) Republican; 35% [38%] (38%) Independent.  Ideology: 33% [34%] (32%) Moderate; 32% [31%] (31%) Conservative; 16% [17%] (18%) Liberal; 12% [12%] (12%) Very conservative; 7% [5%] (7%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-17, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-18, 2012 are in parentheses.

This Week Roundtable: Battle for the Senate

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% (48%) {47%} [46%] (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% (46%) {51%} [49%] (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 2% (3%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 4% (3%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tommy Thompson 

• Very favorable 24% (23%) {25%} [22%] (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 24% (25%) {22%} [27%] (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% (16%) {16%} [18%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 33% (32%) {36%} [28%] (17%)

Tammy Baldwin

• Very favorable 21% (26%) {30%} [32%] (22%)
• Somewhat favorable 21% (19%) {22%} [17%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% (8%) {10%} [13%] (16%)
• Very unfavorable 39% (41%) {36%} [31%] (33%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 48% (48%) {47%} [49%] (59%) / 50% (48%) {52%} [46%] (37%) {-2%}
• Tammy Baldwin 42% (45%) {52%} [49%] (43%) / 54% (49%) {46%} [44%] (49%) {-12%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-six percent (96%) of likely Wisconsin voters say they are certain they will vote in this year’s election. Among these voters, Thompson leads 49% to 46%. He leads 52% to 47% among the 88% of the state's voters who have already made up their minds whom they will vote for.

Thompson draws support from 86% of the state’s Republicans, while 89% of Wisconsin Democrats back Baldwin. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Thompson has a four-point advantage.

Thompson leads by nine points among male voters in the state but trails by six among female voters. Voters in every age demographic are narrowly divided over the two candidates.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 47%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 45%

Survey of 625 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted October 15-17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% {47%} [46%] (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 46% {51%} [49%] (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 3% {1%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 3% {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tommy Thompson 

• Very favorable 23% {25%} [22%] (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 25% {22%} [27%] (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% {16%} [18%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 32% {36%} [28%] (17%)

Tammy Baldwin

• Very favorable 26% {30%} [32%] (22%)
• Somewhat favorable 19% {22%} [17%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 8% {10%} [13%] (16%)
• Very unfavorable 41% {36%} [31%] (33%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 48% {47%} [49%] (59%) / 48% {52%} [46%] (37%) {0%}
• Tammy Baldwin 45% {52%} [49%] (43%) / 49% {46%} [44%] (49%) {-4%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Thompson leads by seven points among male voters in the state but trails by two among female voters. The candidates are essentially tied among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49% (48%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 45% (46%)
• Undecided 5% (5%)

Survey of 1,013 likely voters was conducted October 15-17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 33% (33%) Democrat; 28% (28%) Republican; 38% (38%) Independent.  Ideology: 34% (32%) Moderate; 31% (31%) Conservative; 17% (18%) Liberal; 12% (12%) Very conservative; 5% (7%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 16-18, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

•  Tommy Thompson (R) 46% (44%) {41%} [50%] (48%) {45%} [49%]
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% (48%) {50%} [41%] (43%) {41%} [41%] 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 37% (36%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {44%} [48%] (44%) / 50% (48%) {44%} [38%] (43%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {-13%}
• Tammy Baldwin 32% (37%) {36%} [32%] (30%) {26%} [27%] (21%) / 47% (39%) {31%} [37%] (35%) {31%} [30%] (27%) {-15%} 

Please tell me whether the following statement describes Tammy Baldwin, or not…she is someone who cares about people like me.

• Describes 47% (47%)
• Does not describe 40% (37%)

Please tell me whether the following statement describes Tommy Thompson, or not…she is someone who cares about people like me.

• Describes 42% (41%)
• Does not describe 49% (49%)

Survey of 870 likely voters was conducted October 11-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% (33%) {34%} [28%] (32%) {33%} [30%] (34%) Democrat; 28% (26%) {26%} [26%] (30%) {29%} [27%] (26%) Republican; 38% (37%) {38%} [42%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (35%) Independent.  Political views: 35% (30%) {31%} [30%] (33%) {32%} [31%] (30%) Conservative; 34% (33%) {32%} [30%] (31%) {35%} [34%] (38%) Moderate; 19% (16%) {19%} [16%] (17%) {15%} [16%] (14%) Liberal; 6% (10%) {8%} [11%] (10%) {8%} [10%] (8%) Very conservative; 3% (5%) {7%} [7%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

The attack ads seem to have gained traction on both sides. Asked whether they agree that Thompson "sold out to special interests and isn't working for you anymore," 49 percent of likely voters agreed with the statement while 41 percent disagreed. When asked whether they agree that Baldwin "is one of the most liberal members of Congress and is too liberal for Wisconsin," the results were the same: 49 percent agreed and 41 percent disagreed.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% [49%] (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 47% [46%] (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
• Some other candidate 1% [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 2% [4%] (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 57%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 40%

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 56%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 57%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 38%

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tammy Baldwin

• Very favorable 30% [32%] (22%)
• Somewhat favorable 22% [17%] (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 10% [13%] (16%)
• Very unfavorable 36% [31%] (33%)

Tommy Thompson 

• Very favorable 25% [22%] (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 22% [27%] (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [18%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 36% [28%] (17%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 52% [49%] (43%) / 46% [44%] (49%) {+6%}
• Tommy Thompson 47% [49%] (59%) / 52% [46%] (37%) {-5%} 

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-four percent (94%) of likely voters in the state say they are certain to vote in this year's election. Among these voters, the Senate race is a tie, with each candidate earning 49% support.

Both candidates draw the support of over 90% of voters in their respective parties.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% {47%} [44%] (47%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 46% {47%} [50%] (47%)

Among Independents

• Tommy Thompson (R) 46% {50%} [54%]
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 46% {42%} [39%]

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 50% {52%} [54%]
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 45% {43%} [40%]

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% {51%} [48%]
  
• Tommy Thompson (R) 42% {42%} [47%]

Survey of 1,327 likely voters was conducted October 4-9, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {35%} [32%] (34%) Democrat; 27% {27%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 37% {32%} [33%] (33%) Independent; 6% {4%} [6%] (6%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49% [49%] (48%) {44%} [45%] (42%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [44%]
• Tommy Thompson (R) 46% [45%] (45%) {49%} [45%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {50%} [45%]

Among Independents

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 52% [46%] {42%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 40% [44%] {45%}

Among Moderates

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 63% [56%] {54%}
  
• Tommy Thompson (R) 28% [34%] {33%} 

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% [48%] {54%}
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% [46%] {40%}

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 50% [51%] {48%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 43% [42%] {44%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 44% [44%] (44%) {40%} [37%] {29%} [31%] (28%) {26%} [27%] / 47% [45%] (45%) {45%} [39%] {31%} [31%] (30%) {28%} [25%] {-3%} 
• Tommy Thompson 43% [42%] (40%) {46%} [40%] {41%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [42%] / 50% [50%] (53%) {43%} [47%] {44%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [42%] {-7%}

Survey of 979 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted October 4-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% [34%] (32%) {32%} [30%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 33% [31%] (36%) {34%} [32%] (35%) {32%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 33% [35%] (32%) {34%} [38%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (32%) {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% [29%] {29%} [28%] [31%] (30%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Moderate; 24% [26%] {24%} [26%] [25%] (25%) {21%} [23%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 18% [19%] {20%} [18%] [19%] (19%) {22%} [20%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 16% [15%] {16%} [18%] [15%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (18%) Very conservative; 12% [11%] {10%} [10%] [10%] (10%) {11%} [10%] (7%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
 

Among Likely Voters 

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% {50%} [41%] (43%) {41%} [41%] 
•  Tommy Thompson (R) 44% {41%} [50%] (48%) {45%} [49%]

Among Registered Voters

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% {49%} [40%] (42%) {39%} [39%] (42%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 43% {41%} [50%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 37% {36%} [32%] (30%) {26%} [27%] (21%) / 39% {31%} [37%] (35%) {31%} [30%] (27%) {-2%}
• Tommy Thompson 36% {39%} [40%] (39%) {44%} [48%] (44%) / 48% {44%} [38%] (43%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {-12%}

Please tell me whether the following statement describes Tammy Baldwin, or not…she is someone who cares about people like me.

• Describes 47%
• Does not describe 37%

Please tell me whether the following statement describes Tommy Thompson, or not…she is someone who cares about people like me.

• Describes 41%
• Does not describe 49%

Survey of 1,003 registered voters, including 894 likely voters, was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points among registered voters; +/-3.3 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID: 33% {34%} [28%] (32%) {33%} [30%] (34%) Democrat; 26% {26%} [26%] (30%) {29%} [27%] (26%) Republican; 37% {38%} [42%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (35%) Independent.  Political views: 33% {32%} [30%] (31%) {35%} [34%] (38%) Moderate; 30% {31%} [30%] (33%) {32%} [31%] (30%) Conservative; 16% {19%} [16%] (17%) {15%} [16%] (14%) Liberal; 10% {8%} [11%] (10%) {8%} [10%] (8%) Very conservative; 5% {7%} [7%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51.8%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 40.4%
• Undecided 7.8%

Among Democrats

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 86.7%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 8.0%
• Undecided 5.3%

Among Republicans

• Tommy Thompson (R) 84.7%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 9.5%
  
• Undecided 5.8%

Among Independents

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 53.1%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 35.9%
• Undecided 11.0%

Survey of 1,238 likely voters was conducted September 20-23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 31% Republican; 37% Independent.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49% (48%) {44%} [45%] (42%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [44%]
• Tommy Thompson (R) 45% (45%) {49%} [45%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (46%) {50%} [45%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 44% (44%) {40%} [37%] {29%} [31%] (28%) {26%} [27%] / 45% (45%) {45%} [39%] {31%} [31%] (30%) {28%} [25%] {-1%} 
• Tommy Thompson 42% (40%) {46%} [40%] {41%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [42%] / 50% (53%) {43%} [47%] {44%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [42%] {-8%}

Among Independents

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 46% {42%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 44% {45%}

Among Moderates

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 56% {54%}
  
• Tommy Thompson (R) 34% {33%} 

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% {54%}
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 46% {40%}

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% {48%}
• Tommy Thompson (R) 42% {44%} 

Survey of 842 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted September 18-19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% (32%) {32%} [30%] (28%) {31%} [33%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (33%) Democrat; 31% (36%) {34%} [32%] (35%) {32%} [31%] (31%) {34%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 35% (32%) {34%} [38%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (32%) {29%} [31%] (35%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% {29%} [28%] [31%] (30%) {29%} [30%] (31%) Moderate; 26% {24%} [26%] [25%] (25%) {21%} [23%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {20%} [18%] [19%] (19%) {22%} [20%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 15% {16%} [18%] [15%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (18%) Very conservative; 11% {10%} [10%] [10%] (10%) {11%} [10%] (7%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 23-26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 12-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49% (43%) {48%} [36%] (38%) {44%} [36%] (42%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 46% (54%) {41%} [52%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (49%)
• Some other candidate 2% (1%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 4% (3%) {6%} [6%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (6%)

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Tammy Baldwin

• Very favorable 32% (22%)
• Somewhat favorable 17% (21%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 13% (16%)
• Very unfavorable 31% (33%)

Tommy Thompson 

• Very favorable 22% (23%)
• Somewhat favorable 27% (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 18% (20%)
• Very unfavorable 28% (17%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 49% (43%) / 44% (49%) {+5%}
• Tommy Thompson 49% (59%) / 46% (37%) {+3%} 

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 27, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Both candidates earn more than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. Baldwin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either the Republicans or the Democrats.

Male voters prefer Thompson by six points, while Baldwin has an 11-point lead among female voters. Married voters are essentially tied, while those who are not married prefer the Democrat by 13 points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
  
LIKELY VOTERS

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 48%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 46%
• Undecided 5%

Among Men

• Tommy Thompson (R) 50%
• Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%
  
• Undecided 5%

Among Women

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 51%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 42%
• Undecided 6%

REGISTERED VOTERS

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49%
• Tommy Thompson (R) 44%
• Undecided 7%

Survey of 1,295 registered voters, including 968 likely voters, was conducted September 16-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.2 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID (among likely voters): 33% Democrat; 28% Republican; 38% Independent. Party ID (among registered voters): 33% Democrat; 26% Republican; 40% Independent. Ideology (among likely voters): 32% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 18% Liberal; 12% Very conservative; 7% Very liberal.  Ideology (among registered voters): 33% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 18% Liberal; 12% Very conservative; 7% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2012 Senate Poll
 

Among Likely Voters 

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 50% [41%] (43%) {41%} [41%] 
•  Tommy Thompson (R) 41% [50%] (48%) {45%} [49%]

Among Registered Voters

• Tammy Baldwin (D) 49% [40%] (42%) {39%} [39%] (42%)
• Tommy Thompson (R) 41% [50%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tammy Baldwin 36% [32%] (30%) {26%} [27%] (21%) / 31% [37%] (35%) {31%} [30%] (27%) {+5%}
• Tommy Thompson 39% [40%] (39%) {44%} [48%] (44%) / 44% [38%] (43%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {-5%}

Survey of 705 registered voters, including 601 likely voters, was conducted September 13-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4.1 percentage points among likely voters.  Party ID: 34% [28%] (32%) {33%} [30%] (34%) Democrat; 26% [26%] (30%) {29%} [27%] (26%) Republican; 38% [42%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (35%) Independent.  Political views: 31% [30%] (33%) {32%} [31%] (30%) Conservative; 32% [30%] (31%) {35%} [34%] (38%) Moderate; 19% [16%] (17%) {15%} [16%] (14%) Liberal; 8% [11%] (10%) {8%} [10%] (8%) Very conservative; 7% [7%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 13-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-19, 2012 are in parentheses.