Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Missouri 2012 Senate Poll

• Claire McCaskill (D) 49% {48%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (47%)
• Todd Akin (R) 43% {38%} [47%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (45%) 
• Some other candidate 4% {9%} [4%] (2%) {2%} [4%]
• Not sure 4% {5%} [5%] (7%) {7%} [4%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Claire McCaskill

• Very favorable 24% {19%}
• Somewhat favorable 25% {29%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% {12%}
• Very unfavorable 33% {36%}

Todd Akin

• Very favorable 16% {11%}
• Somewhat favorable 23% {24%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% {16%}
• Very unfavorable 42% {47%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Claire McCaskill 49% {48%} / 48% {48%} {+1%}
• Todd Akin 39% {35%} / 56% {63%} {-17%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 30, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 14-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Akin has a five-point lead among male voters but trails among female voters by 15 points. Still, that’s an improvement from a month ago.

While McCaskill has 96% support among the state’s Democrats, just 86% of Missouri Republicans favor Akin. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the incumbent by a 47% to 36% margin. That’s an increase in GOP support for Akin from the previous survey but a loss of unaffiliated voters.

While Akin holds a small lead among older voters, McCaskill is ahead by a two-to-one margin among those under 40.