Monday, January 31, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Nebraska 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Nebraska 2012 Presidential Survey
  • Mike Huckabee 51%
  • Barack Obama 38%
  • Mitt Romney 49%
  • Barack Obama 37%
  • Newt Gingrich 48%
  • Barack Obama 40%
  • Sarah Palin 45%
  • Barack Obama 44%
Among Independents
  • Mike Huckabee 43%
  • Barack Obama 42%
    • Barack Obama 43%
    • Mitt Romney 37%
    • Barack Obama 50%
    • Sarah Palin 35%
    • Barack Obama 51%
    • Newt Gingrich 34%
    Among Republicans
    • Mike Huckabee 78%
    • Barack Obama 11%
    • Mitt Romney 74%
    • Barack Obama 10%
    • Newt Gingrich 74%
    • Barack Obama 13%
    • Sarah Palin 69%
    • Barack Obama 18%
    Among Democrats
    • Barack Obama 75%
    • Mitt Romney 14%
    • Barack Obama 78%
    • Mike Huckabee 14%
    • Barack Obama 79%
    • Newt Gingrich 13%
    • Barack Obama 80%
    • Sarah Palin 13%
    Among Conservatives
    • Mike Huckabee 80%
    • Barack Obama 9%
    • Newt Gingrich 78%
    • Barack Obama 10%
    • Mitt Romney 76%
    • Barack Obama 9%
    • Sarah Palin 73%
    • Barack Obama 14%
    Among Moderates
    • Barack Obama 55%
    • Mike Huckabee 33%
    • Barack Obama 52%
    • Mitt Romney 30%
    • Barack Obama 60%
    • Newt Gingrich 28%
    • Barack Obama 62%
    • Sarah Palin 27%
      Among Men
      • Mike Huckabee 57%
      • Barack Obama 32%
      • Mitt Romney 55%
      • Barack Obama 31%
      • Newt Gingrich 54%
      • Barack Obama 36%
      • Sarah Palin 52%
      • Barack Obama 39%
      Among Women
      • Mike Huckabee 46%
      • Barack Obama 44%
      • Mitt Romney 42%
      • Barack Obama 42%
      • Barack Obama 44%
      • Newt Gingrich 42%
      • Barack Obama 48%
      • Sarah Palin 39%
      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
      • Mike Huckabee 44% / 33% {+11%}
      • Mitt Romney 38% / 35% {+3%}
      • Sarah Palin 42% / 50% {-8%}
      • Newt Gingrich 34% / 43% {-9%}
      Among Democrats
      • Mitt Romney 21% / 54% {-33%}
      • Mike Huckabee 17% / 57% {-40%}
      • Newt Gingrich 14% / 69% {-55%}
      • Sarah Palin 14% / 83% {-69%}
      Among Republicans
      • Mike Huckabee 62% / 18% {+44%}
      • Sarah Palin 63% / 27% {+36%}
      • Mitt Romney 49% / 23% {+26%}
      • Newt Gingrich 50% / 25% {+25%}
      Among Independents
      • Mike Huckabee 40% / 32% {+8%}
      • Mitt Romney 37% / 37% {0%}
      • Newt Gingrich 24% / 50% {-26%}
      • Sarah Palin 32% / 60% {-28%}
      Among Conservatives
      • Mike Huckabee 64% / 17% {+47%}
      • Sarah Palin 67% / 23% {+44%}
      • Newt Gingrich 54% / 21% {+33%}
      • Mitt Romney 50% / 25% {+25%}
      Among Moderates
      • Mitt Romney 31% / 41% {-10%}
      • Mike Huckabee 30% / 41% {-11%}
      • Newt Gingrich 18% / 59% {-41%}
      • Sarah Palin 24% / 69% {-45%}
        Among Men
        • Mike Huckabee 47% / 37% {+10%}
        • Mitt Romney 42% / 39% {+3%}
        • Sarah Palin 48% / 46% {+2%}
        • Newt Gingrich 39% / 45% {-6%}
        Among Women
        • Mike Huckabee 41% / 29% {+12%}
        • Mitt Romney 34% / 32% {+2%}
        • Newt Gingrich 29% / 42% {-13%}
        • Sarah Palin 36% / 54% {-18%}
        Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
        • Approve 38%
        • Disapprove 56%
            Survey of 977 Nebraska voters was conducted January 26-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 52% Republican; 34% Democrat; 14% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 45% Conservative; 43% Moderate; 13% Liberal.


            Inside the numbers:
            Palin only beats the president by five points in the 1st district, and is down by a whopping 24 in the 2nd. The other three prevail by 14 to 18 points in the 1st and trail by only nine to 19 in the 2nd. She also does worst in the most conservative of the districts, the 3rd, beating the president there by 25 points; the others show margins of 29 to 34 points.

            Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

            Rasmussen: 46% of GOP Primary Voters Who Support Sarah Palin Are Likely to Back Third-Party Option If She Isn’t Nominated

            Suppose your favorite candidate fails to win the nomination, how likely are you to vote for a third party candidate?
            • Sarah Palin supporters 46%
            • Mike Huckabee supporters 35%
            • Mitt Romney supporters 31%
            National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

            Inside the numbers:
            In early November when Rasmussen Reports first asked the question, those who said they were at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if their choice wasn’t nominated ranged from 24% of Huckabee supporters to 31% of those who favored Palin.
            President Obama won’t be a big beneficiary if a GOP Primary voter’s favorite candidate isn’t nominated. Only nine percent (9%) say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for the Democratic incumbent in that case, with six percent (6%) who say it’s Very Likely. Ninety percent (90%) see a vote for Obama as unlikely, with a whopping 79% who say it’s Not At All Likely.
            Forty percent (40%) of likely Republican Primary voters describe themselves as a member of the Tea Party. But Tea Party Republicans are only slightly more inclined to vote for a third-party candidate if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination.

            Friday, January 28, 2011

            Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey

            PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey 
            • Mike Huckabee 27% {18%} [25%] (19%) {30%} [30%] (33%)
            • Newt Gingrich 18% {21%} [17%] (23%)
            • Sarah Palin 16% {21%} [21%] (19%) {30%} [27%] (27%)
            • Mitt Romney 11% {18%} [10%] (14%) {27%} [25%] (25%)
            • Tim Pawlenty 7% {3%} [4%] (4%)
            • Ron Paul 6% {7%} [7%]
            • Mitch Daniels 3% {1%} [1%] (2%)
            • John Thune 1% {1%} [2%] (0%)
            • Someone else/Undecided 10% {12%} [12%] (16%)
            Among Conservatives
            • Mike Huckabee 29% {19%} [26%] (22%)
            • Newt Gingrich 21% {22%} [19%] (25%)
            • Sarah Palin 17% {24%} [20%] (19%)
            • Mitt Romney 9% {14%} [10%] (10%)
            • Tim Pawlenty 8% {3%} [5%] (4%)
            • Ron Paul 5% {6%} [7%]
            • Mitch Daniels 3% {0%} [1%] (3%)
            • John Thune 1% {1%} [1%] (0%)
            • Someone else/Undecided 7% {10%} [12%] (15%)
            Among Moderates
            • Mike Huckabee 21% {15%} [24%] (14%)
            • Mitt Romney 19% {30%} [12%] (31%)
            • Sarah Palin 13% {13%} [27%] (19%)
            • Newt Gingrich 11% {15%} [12%] (17%)
            • Ron Paul 10% {8%} [7%]
            • Tim Pawlenty 4% {3%} [1%] (2%)
            • Mitch Daniels 2% {1%} [1%] (0%)
            • John Thune 2% {0%} [3%] (0%)
            • Someone else/Undecided 18% {15%} [14%] (15%)
            Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
            • Mike Huckabee 70% {71%} [71%] / 14% {16%} [13%] {+56%}
            • Sarah Palin 72% {67%} [65%] / 22% {25%} [20%] {+50%}
            • Newt Gingrich 62% {61%} [63%] / 18% {21%} [21%] {+44%}
            • Mitt Romney 50% {57%} [49%] / 26% {22%} [23%] {+24%}
            Among Conservatives
            • Sarah Palin 78% {77%} [72%] / 15% {17%} [13%] {+63%}
            • Mike Huckabee 73% {79%} [76%] / 11% {9%} [9%] {+62%}
            • Newt Gingrich 69% {69%} [72%] / 15% {13%} [13%] {+54%}
            • Mitt Romney 52% {58%} [53%] / 25% {23%} [21%] {+27%}
            Among Moderates
            • Mike Huckabee 61% {50%} [60%] / 17% {34%} [21%] {+44%}
            • Mitt Romney 47% {54%} [42%] / 23% {22%} [25%] {+24%}
            • Newt Gingrich 42% {40%} [40%] / 26% {41%} [38%] {+16%}
            • Sarah Palin 55% {42%} [51%] / 39% {47%} [36%] {+16%}
            Survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters was conducted January 20-23, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 74% {71%} [72%] Conservative; 23% {27%} [24%] Moderate; 3% {2%} [3%] Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses. 

            Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary Survey

            PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary Survey
            • Mike Huckabee 28% {22%} [27%]
            • Sarah Palin 23% {25%} [24%]
            • Newt Gingrich 17% {15%} [16%]
            • Mitt Romney 10% {15%} [13%]
            • Ron Paul 6%
            • Tim Pawlenty 5% {2%}
            • Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
            • John Thune 0% {1%}
            • Someone else/Undecided 8% {17%}
            Among Conservatives
            • Mike Huckabee 32% {26%} [27%]
            • Sarah Palin 21% {23%} [24%]
            • Newt Gingrich 18% {19%} [19%]
            • Mitt Romney 10% {13%} [12%]
            • Ron Paul 6%
            • Tim Pawlenty 6% {3%}
            • Mitch Daniels 2% {0%}
            • John Thune 1% {1%}
            • Someone else/Undecided 5% {13%}
            Among Moderates
            • Sarah Palin 26% {30%} [21%]
            • Mike Huckabee 21% {12%} [29%]
            • Newt Gingrich 16% {8%} [10%]
            • Mitt Romney 11% {25%} [18%]
            • Ron Paul 6%
            • Tim Pawlenty 2% {1%}
            • Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
            • John Thune 0% {0%}
            • Someone else/Undecided 16% {24%}
            Among Men
            • Mike Huckabee 27% {17%} [25%]
            • Newt Gingrich 25% {20%} [20%]
            • Sarah Palin 20% {28%} [22%]
            • Mitt Romney 10% {15%} [17%]
            • Tim Pawlenty 6% {2%}
            • Ron Paul 5%
            • Mitch Daniels 3% {0%} 
            • John Thune 0% {1%}
            • Someone else/Undecided 3% {13%}
            Among Women
            • Mike Huckabee 30% {27%} [29%]
            • Sarah Palin 26% {23%} [25%]
            • Mitt Romney 11% {16%} [10%]
            • Newt Gingrich 8% {11%} [13%]
            • Ron Paul 7%
            • Tim Pawlenty 3% {2%}
            • Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
            • John Thune 1% {0%} 
            • Someone else/Undecided 14% {20%}
            Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
            • Mike Huckabee 76% / 9% {+67%}
            • Sarah Palin 69% / 18% {+51%}
            • Newt Gingrich 60% / 19% {+41%}
            • Mitt Romney 56% / 18% {+38%}
            Among Conservatives
            • Mike Huckabee 84% / 6% {+78%}
            • Sarah Palin 75% / 12% {+63%}
            • Newt Gingrich 69% / 10% {+59%}
            • Mitt Romney 60% / 16% {+44%}
            Among Moderates
            • Mike Huckabee 57% / 17% {+40%}
            • Mitt Romney 46% / 21% {+25%}
            • Sarah Palin 53% / 34% {+19%}
            • Newt Gingrich 40% / 36% {+4%}
            Among Men
            • Mike Huckabee 79% / 12% {+67%}
            • Sarah Palin 72% / 18% {+54%}
            • Newt Gingrich 69% / 15% {+54%}
            • Mitt Romney 61% / 20% {+41%}
            Among Women
            • Mike Huckabee 73% / 6% {+67%}
            • Sarah Palin 66% / 19% {+47%}
            • Mitt Romney 52% /17% {+35%}
            • Newt Gingrich 51% / 22% {+29%}
            Survey of 355 usual Republican primary voters was conducted January 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 70% Conservative; 26% Moderate; 4% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2010 are in square brackets.

            Poll Watch: Strategic National (R) 2012 Michigan Republican Primary Survey

            Strategic National (R) 2012 Michigan Republican Primary Survey
            • Mitt Romney 24.4%
            • Mike Huckabee 18.8%
            • Sarah Palin 17.1%
            • Newt Gingrich 10.2%
            • Tim Pawlenty 3.5%
            • Rick Santorum 1.9%
            • Jon Huntsman 1.5%
            • Mitch Daniels 1.0%
            • Haley Barbour 0.6%
            • Undecided 21.0%
            Survey of 480 Republican voters was conducted January 24- 25, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

            Thursday, January 27, 2011

            Poll Watch: PPP (D) West Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey

            PPP (D) West Virginia 2012 Presidential Survey
            • Mike Huckabee 54%
            • Barack Obama 36%
            • Mitt Romney 50%
            • Barack Obama 37%
            • Newt Gingrich 49%
            • Barack Obama 39%
            • Sarah Palin 46%
            • Barack Obama 42%
            Among Independents
            • Mike Huckabee 61%
            • Barack Obama 20%
              • Mitt Romney 61%
              • Barack Obama 20%
              • Newt Gingrich 56%
              • Barack Obama 25%
              • Sarah Palin 53%
              • Barack Obama 30%
              Among Republicans
              • Mike Huckabee 86%
              • Barack Obama 7%
              • Mitt Romney 81%
              • Barack Obama 8%
              • Newt Gingrich 81%
              • Barack Obama 10%
              • Sarah Palin 75%
              • Barack Obama 12%
              Among Democrats
              • Barack Obama 56%
              • Mike Huckabee 35%
              • Barack Obama 56%
              • Mitt Romney 30%
              • Barack Obama 59%
              • Newt Gingrich 29%
              • Barack Obama 62%
              • Sarah Palin 27%
              Among Conservatives
              • Mike Huckabee 81%
              • Barack Obama 11%
              • Mitt Romney 76%
              • Barack Obama 11%
              • Newt Gingrich 75%
              • Barack Obama 13%
              • Sarah Palin 71%
              • Barack Obama 14%
              Among Moderates
              • Barack Obama 48%
              • Mike Huckabee 39%
              • Barack Obama 49%
              • Mitt Romney 35%
              • Barack Obama 54%
              • Newt Gingrich 33%
              • Barack Obama 60%
              • Sarah Palin 30%
                Among Men
                • Mike Huckabee 60%
                • Barack Obama 32%
                • Mitt Romney 57%
                • Barack Obama 33%
                • Newt Gingrich 54%
                • Barack Obama 36%
                • Sarah Palin 52%
                • Barack Obama 38%
                Among Women
                • Mike Huckabee 49%
                • Barack Obama 40%
                • Mitt Romney 43%
                • Barack Obama 40%
                • Newt Gingrich 43%
                • Barack Obama 42%
                • Barack Obama 47%
                • Sarah Palin 39%
                Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                • Mike Huckabee 48% / 27% {+21%}
                • Mitt Romney 34% / 37% {-3%}
                • Sarah Palin 41% / 47% {-6%}
                • Newt Gingrich 33% / 43% {-10%}
                Among Democrats
                • Mike Huckabee 31% / 37% {-6%}
                • Mitt Romney 22% / 45% {-23%}
                • Sarah Palin 25% / 64% {-39%}
                • Newt Gingrich 16% / 58% {-42%}
                Among Republicans
                • Mike Huckabee 74% / 10% {+64%}
                • Sarah Palin 66% / 21% {+45%}
                • Newt Gingrich 59% / 21% {+38%}
                • Mitt Romney 55% / 19% {+36%}
                Among Independents
                • Mike Huckabee 57% / 20% {+37%}
                • Sarah Palin 51% / 33% {+18%}
                • Newt Gingrich 42% / 30% {+12%}
                • Mitt Romney 32% / 42% {-10%}
                Among Conservatives
                • Mike Huckabee 66% / 13% {+53%}
                • Sarah Palin 62% / 23% {+39%}
                • Newt Gingrich 53% / 20% {+33%}
                • Mitt Romney 47% / 24% {+23%}
                Among Moderates
                • Mike Huckabee 37% / 32% {+5%}
                • Mitt Romney 26% / 41% {-15%}
                • Sarah Palin 27% / 61% {-34%}
                • Newt Gingrich 18% / 57% {-39%}
                  Among Men
                  • Mike Huckabee 53% / 29% {+24%}
                  • Sarah Palin 46% / 43% {+3%}
                  • Mitt Romney 40% / 38% {+2%}
                  • Newt Gingrich 39% / 42% {-3%}
                  Among Women
                  • Mike Huckabee 44% / 25% {+19%}
                  • Mitt Romney 28% / 35% {-7%}
                  • Sarah Palin 37% / 51% {-14%}
                  • Newt Gingrich 27% / 45% {-18%}
                  Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                  • Approve 34%
                  • Disapprove 58%
                      Survey of 1,105 West Virginia voters was conducted January 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 57% Democrat; 32% Republican;  10% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 45% Conservative; 40% Moderate; 15% Liberal.

                      Wednesday, January 26, 2011

                      Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                      Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
                      Which potential candidate would you least like to see get the nomination for president…Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee or Newt Gingrich?
                      • Sarah Palin 33%
                      • Newt Gingrich 23%
                      • Mitt Romney 15%
                      • Mike Huckabee 13%
                      Favorability Rating
                      • Mitt Romney 81%
                      • Sarah Palin 79%
                      • Mike Huckabee 77%
                      • Newt Gingrich 70%
                      • Ron Paul 53%
                      National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

                      Inside the numbers:
                      Republican Tea Party members feel much more favorably about Palin than any of the other front-runners, with 68% who have a Very Favorable opinion of her. Non-Tea Party members like Romney best, with Huckabee close behind.

                      A plurality (46%) of GOP primary voters who are not members of the grass roots movement say Palin is the one they least hope gets the 2012 nomination. Among Tea Party members, 23% feel that way, while 26% say it of Gingrich, 20% of Romney and 16% of Huckabee.

                      In virtually all demographic categories, however, there is little difference of opinion when it comes to the favorables for the top three contenders.

                      Very conservative primary voters clearly like Palin best. Those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative or moderate/liberal feel strongest about Romney and Huckabee.

                      If Romney, Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich decide not to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 or their campaigns falter in the early going, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the leader among primary voters on a list of eight other prominent Republicans reportedly considering the race.

                      Rudy Giuliani: Obama's Deficit Proposal Falls Short


                      Paul Ryan Gives GOP Response to SOTU

                      Tuesday, January 25, 2011

                      Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                      Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
                      Suppose some of the bigger names decided not to run for President in 2012 and you had a choice between Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, John Huntsman, Herman Cain, Mike Pence and Haley Barbour…for whom would you vote?
                      • Rudy Giuliani 29%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 17% (9%)
                      • Mitch Daniels 5% (2%)
                      • Haley Barbour 5% (8%)
                      • Mike Pence 4% (3%)
                      • Herman Cain 4%
                      • Jon Huntsman 4%
                      • John Thune 3% (3%)
                      • Some other candidate 11% (13%)
                      • Undecided 19% (19%)
                      Note: In the poll conducted November 1, 2010, Chris Christie received 22%, Ron Paul, 14%, and Jim DeMint, 7%.

                      National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

                      Inside the numbers:
                      Giuliani is the leading vote-getter across virtually all demographic categories.
                      As in the survey of front-runners, there’s little difference of opinion on the candidates between male and female primary voters. Younger voters express much stronger interest in Giuliani than their elders.

                      Tea Party members like Pawlenty, Pence and Cain slightly more than non-members do. Non-members feel a bit more strongly about Giuliani and Daniels than do those who say they are part of the grass roots movement.

                      Primary voters who describe themselves as somewhat conservative or moderate/liberal are more strongly supportive of Giuliani than those who call themselves very conservative are.

                      Giuliani and Pawlenty are tied among Evangelical Christian primary voters, but the former mayor best known for his response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks leads among other Protestants, Catholics and those of other religions.

                      Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Jersey 2012 Republican Primary

                      PPP (D) New Jersey 2012 Republican Primary
                      • Mike Huckabee 18%
                      • Mitt Romney 18%
                      • Newt Gingrich 15%
                      • Sarah Palin 14% 
                      • Ron Paul 8%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 4%
                      • Mitch Daniels 3%
                      • John Thune 2%
                      • Someone else/Undecided 19%
                      Among Conservatives
                      • Mike Huckabee 21%
                      • Newt Gingrich 17%
                      • Sarah Palin 16% 
                      • Mitt Romney 14%
                      • Ron Paul 5%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 5%
                      • Mitch Daniels 4%
                      • John Thune 2%
                      • Someone else/Undecided 16%
                      Among Moderates
                      • Mitt Romney 24%
                      • Mike Huckabee 13%
                      • Ron Paul 12%
                      • Sarah Palin 11%
                      • Newt Gingrich 10%
                      • Mitch Daniels 2%
                      • John Thune 2%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 2%
                      • Someone else/Undecided 24%
                      Among Men
                      • Mike Huckabee 20%
                      • Sarah Palin 18%
                      • Mitt Romney 15%
                      • Newt Gingrich 14% 
                      • Ron Paul 9%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 4%
                      • Mitch Daniels 3%
                      • John Thune 2%
                      • Someone else/Undecided 16%
                      Among Women
                      • Mitt Romney 23%
                      • Newt Gingrich 16%
                      • Mike Huckabee 16%
                      • Sarah Palin 9% 
                      • Ron Paul 6%
                      • Mitch Daniels 3%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 3%
                      • John Thune 2%
                      • Someone else/Undecided 22%
                      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                      • Mike Huckabee 61% / 17% {+44%}
                      • Mitt Romney 60% / 20% {+40%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 54% / 25% {+29%}
                      • Sarah Palin 58% / 33% {+25%}
                      Among Conservatives
                      • Mike Huckabee 70% / 12% {+58%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 68% / 15% {+53%}
                      • Sarah Palin 72% / 21% {+51%}
                      • Mitt Romney 64% / 19% {+45%}
                      Among Moderates
                      • Mitt Romney 53% / 21% {+32%}
                      • Mike Huckabee 47% / 24% {+23%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 34% / 37% {-3%}
                      • Sarah Palin 38% / 48% {-10%}
                      Among Men
                      • Mike Huckabee 61% / 22% {+39%}
                      • Mitt Romney 60% / 25% {+35%}
                      • Sarah Palin 62% / 29% {+33%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 58% / 25% {+33%}
                      Among Women
                      • Mike Huckabee 61% / 12% {+49%}
                      • Mitt Romney 61% / 14% {+47%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 49% / 24% {+25%}
                      • Sarah Palin 53% / 37% {+16%}
                      Survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters was conducted January 6-9, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 60% Conservative; 38% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

                      Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

                      PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey
                      • Barack Obama 47% [46%] (44%)
                      • Mitt Romney 44% [43%] (44%)
                      • Barack Obama 49% [45%] (44%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 45% [46%] (48%)
                      • Barack Obama 50% [48%] (46%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 44% [42%] (45%)
                      • Barack Obama 50% [52%] (48%)
                      • Sarah Palin 41% [38%] (43%)
                      Among Independents
                      • Barack Obama 44% [44%] (37%)
                      • Mitt Romney 39% [37%] (50%)
                      • Barack Obama 49% [41%] (39%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 42% [38%] (44%)
                      • Barack Obama 51% [37%] (37%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 40% [47%] (46%)
                      • Barack Obama 48% [51%] (42%)
                      • Sarah Palin 32% [33%] (46%)
                      Among Conservatives
                      • Mitt Romney 72% [71%] (72%)
                      • Barack Obama 18% [18%] (16%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 74% [75%] (79%)
                      • Barack Obama 21% [16%] (15%)
                      • Sarah Palin 71% [67%] (68%)
                      • Barack Obama 19% [21%] (18%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 70% [69%] (75%)
                      • Barack Obama 22% [21%] (16%)
                      Among Moderates
                      • Barack Obama 64% [58%] (57%)
                      • Mitt Romney 26% [31%] (28%)
                      • Barack Obama 67% [56%] (55%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 25% [31%] (30%)
                      • Barack Obama 68% [61%] (59%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 26% [28%] (29%)
                      • Barack Obama 69% [68%] (61%)
                      • Sarah Palin 19% [22%] (30%)
                      Among Men
                      • Mike Huckabee 49% [51%] (55%)
                      • Barack Obama 45% [38%] (36%)
                      • Mitt Romney 45% [49%] (52%)
                      • Barack Obama 43% [39%] (37%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 47% [45%] (55%)
                      • Barack Obama 45% [44%] (38%)
                      • Barack Obama 46% [46%] (39%)
                      • Sarah Palin 42% [44%] (51%)
                      Among Women
                      • Barack Obama 51% [53%] (50%)
                      • Mitt Romney 42% [39%] (37%)
                      • Barack Obama 53% [50%] (50%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 41% [42%] (41%)
                      • Barack Obama 53% [52%] (53%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 41% [39%] (37%)
                      • Barack Obama 53% [56%] (55%)
                      • Sarah Palin 40% [33%] (35%)
                      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                      • Mike Huckabee 42% [43%] (44%) / 32% [34%] (31%) {+10%}
                      • Mitt Romney 33% [34%] (33%) / 36% [39%] (38%) {-3%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 34% [35%] (34%) / 45% [47%] (43%) {-11%}
                      • Sarah Palin 39% [36%] (36%) / 55% [57%] (55%) {-16%}
                      Among Republicans
                      • Mike Huckabee 69% [72%] (67%) / 11% [15%] (11%) {+58%}
                      • Sarah Palin 73% [68%] (62%) / 17% [24%] (24%) {+56%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 54% [65%] (56%) / 19% [23%] (20%) {+35%}
                      • Mitt Romney 51% [57%] (44%) / 20% [21%] (22%) {+31%}
                      Among Independents
                      • Mike Huckabee 39% [39%] (51%) / 41% [31%] (26%) {-2%}
                      • Mitt Romney 35% [30%] (46%) / 43% [39%] (32%) {-8%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 34% [34%] (33%) / 51% [43%] (41%) {-17%}
                      • Sarah Palin 29% [36%] (38%) / 64% [52%] (50%) {-35%}
                      Among Conservatives
                      • Mike Huckabee 64% [66%] (62%) / 13% [12%] (17%) {+51%}
                      • Sarah Palin 67% [60%] (58%) / 24% [31%] (31%) {+43%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 54% [58%] (56%) / 23% [24%] (22%) {+31%}
                      • Mitt Romney 45% [45%] (44%) / 21% [25%] (27%) {+24%}
                      Among Moderates
                      • Mike Huckabee 28% [33%] (33%) / 40% [44%] (33%) {-12%}
                      • Mitt Romney 28% [32%] (26%) / 43% [45%] (40%) {-15%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 19% [21%] (18%) / 60% [63%] (55%) {-41%}
                      • Sarah Palin 21% [21%] (22%) / 76% [73%] (67%) {-55%}
                      Among Men
                      • Mike Huckabee 44% [49%] (47%) / 34% [40%] (31%) {+10%}
                      • Mitt Romney 37% [36%] (39%) / 36% [47%] (39%) {+1%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 38% [40%] (43%) / 46% [50%] (41%) {-8%}
                      • Sarah Palin 38% [42%] (42%) / 54% [54%] (50%) {-16%}
                      Among Women
                      • Mike Huckabee 41% [38%] (41%) / 31% [28%] (31%) {+10%}
                      • Mitt Romney 31% [32%] (29%) / 36% [32%] (38%) {-5%}
                      • Newt Gingrich 31% [31%] (26%) / 44% [45%] (45%) {-13%}
                      • Sarah Palin 39% [31%] (30%) / 55% [60%] (60%) {-16%}
                      Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                      • Approve 49% [46%] (45%)
                      • Disapprove 47% [49%] (51%)
                      Survey of 575 North Carolina voters was conducted January 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses. Party ID breakdown: 47% [46%] (49%) Democrat; 36% [34%] (35%) Republican; 18% [21%] (17%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 44% [43%] (42%) Conservative; 40% [40%] (38%) Moderate; 16% [17%] (20%) Liberal.

                      Poll Watch: Strategic National (R) 2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary Survey

                      Strategic National (R) 2012 New Hampshire Republican Primary Survey
                      • Mitt Romney 33.51%
                      • Mike Huckabee 13.83%
                      • Sarah Palin 12.77%
                      • Newt Gingrich 8.62%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 5.21%
                      • Mitch Daniels 1.60%
                      • Rick Santorum 1.28%
                      • Haley Barbour 0.96%
                      • John Thune 0.21%
                      • Other/Undecided 22.02%
                      Was the earth created in six days?
                      • Yes 45.00%
                      • No 37.98%
                      • Unsure 17.02%

                      The Earth is...
                      • Several billion years old 50.74%
                      • Around 10,000 years old 32.13%
                      • Unsure 17.13%
                      Are science and the biblical story of creation in conflict?
                      • Yes 39.15%
                      • No 42.45%
                      • Unsure 18.40%
                      Survey of 940 New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted January 19, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

                      Poll Watch: Strategic National (R) 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Survey

                      Strategic National (R) 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Survey
                      • Mike Huckabee 27.56%
                      • Mitt Romney 18.54%
                      • Sarah Palin 12.44%
                      • Newt Gingrich 12.20%
                      • Tim Pawlenty 4.39%
                      • Michele Bachmann 3.66%
                      • John Thune 1.95%
                      • Rick Santorum 0.98%
                      • Haley Barbour 0.24%
                      • Other 0.49%
                      • Undecided 17.56%


                      Was the earth created in six days?
                      • Yes 67.80%
                      • No 18.29%
                      • Unsure 13.90%




                      Is the earth 10,000 years old?
                      • Yes 45.37%
                      • No, it's much older 31.71%
                      • Unsure 22.93%
                      Are science and the biblical story of creation in conflict?
                      • Yes 42.20%
                      • No 38.78%
                      • Unsure 19.02%
                      Survey of 410 typical Iowa caucus goers was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.

                      Rudy Says Sarah Can Secure GOP Nomination, But Doubts Divisive Palin Could Beat President Obama



                      Click here to read transcript.

                      Monday, January 24, 2011

                      Tim Pawlenty: Courage to Stand

                      Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                      Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                      If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today would you vote for Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich or Mitch Daniels?
                      • Mitt Romney 24% (20%)
                      • Sarah Palin 19% (19%)
                      • Mike Huckabee 17% (19%)
                      • Newt Gingrich 11% (13%)
                      • Tim Pawlenty 6% (6%)
                      • Ron Paul 4% (5%)
                      • Mitch Daniels 3% (3%)
                      • Some other candidate 6% (7%)
                      • Not sure 10% (8%)
                        National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.


                        Inside the numbers:
                        Palin leads among Tea Party members with 28% support. Romney’s the favorite among non-members with 32% of the vote.
                        Romney, Palin and Huckabee are essentially in a three-way tie among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Those who characterize themselves as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal have a clear preference for Romney.
                        Romney holds the lead among married and unmarried primary voters, but Palin is slightly ahead among those who have children living with them.
                        Palin and Huckabee are neck-and-neck among evangelical Christians. Other Protestants, Catholics and those of other religions like Romney better.

                        The Story of Suzie - The Thinking Atheist

                        Sunday, January 23, 2011

                        Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Presidential Survey

                        PPP (D) Texas 2012 Presidential Survey
                        • Mike Huckabee 55%
                        • Barack Obama 39%
                        • Mitt Romney 49%
                        • Barack Obama 42%
                        • Newt Gingrich 48%
                        • Barack Obama 43%
                        • Sarah Palin 47%
                        • Barack Obama 46%
                        • Barack Obama 45%
                        • Rick Perry 45%
                        Among Independents
                        • Mike Huckabee 49%
                        • Barack Obama 38%
                          • Barack Obama 43%
                          • Mitt Romney 41%
                          • Barack Obama 48%
                          • Newt Gingrich 34%
                          • Barack Obama 54%
                          • Sarah Palin 37%
                          • Barack Obama 50%
                          • Rick Perry 31%
                          Among Republicans
                          • Mike Huckabee 92%
                          • Barack Obama 6%
                          • Mitt Romney 86%
                          • Barack Obama 8%
                          • Newt Gingrich 86%
                          • Barack Obama 9%
                          • Sarah Palin 80%
                          • Barack Obama 12%
                          • Rick Perry 81%
                          • Barack Obama 9%
                          Among Democrats
                          • Barack Obama 83%
                          • Sarah Palin 12%
                          • Barack Obama 85%
                          • Mike Huckabee 12%
                          • Barack Obama 85%
                          • Newt Gingrich 10%
                          • Barack Obama 87%
                          • Mitt Romney 8%
                          • Barack Obama 87%
                          • Rick Perry 9%
                          Among Conservatives
                          • Mike Huckabee 82%
                          • Barack Obama 12%
                          • Mitt Romney 77%
                          • Barack Obama 13%
                          • Newt Gingrich 72%
                          • Barack Obama 16%
                          • Sarah Palin 73%
                          • Barack Obama 20%
                          • Rick Perry 69%
                          • Barack Obama 17%
                          Among Moderates
                          • Barack Obama 63%
                          • Mike Huckabee 33%
                          • Barack Obama 68%
                          • Newt Gingrich 28%
                          • Barack Obama 69%
                          • Mitt Romney 25%
                          • Barack Obama 68%
                          • Sarah Palin 23%
                          • Barack Obama 69%
                          • Rick Perry 25%
                            Among Men
                            • Mike Huckabee 57%
                            • Barack Obama 38%
                            • Mitt Romney 50%
                            • Barack Obama 42%
                            • Newt Gingrich 48%
                            • Barack Obama 44%
                            • Barack Obama 48%
                            • Sarah Palin 48%
                            • Rick Perry 47%
                            • Barack Obama 45%
                            Among Women
                            • Mike Huckabee 54%
                            • Barack Obama 41%
                            • Mitt Romney 48%
                            • Barack Obama 43%
                            • Newt Gingrich 48%
                            • Barack Obama 43%
                            • Sarah Palin 46%
                            • Barack Obama 44%
                            • Barack Obama 45%
                            • Rick Perry 43%
                            Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                            • Mike Huckabee 51% / 30% {+21%}
                            • Mitt Romney 40% / 37% {+3%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 38% / 44% {-6%}
                            • Sarah Palin 42% / 53% {-11%}
                            Among Democrats
                            • Mitt Romney 25% / 53% {-28%}
                            • Mike Huckabee 17% / 54% {-37%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 16% / 63% {-47%}
                            • Sarah Palin 8% / 87% {-79%}
                            Among Republicans
                            • Mike Huckabee 75% / 11% {+64%}
                            • Sarah Palin 73% / 22% {+51%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 63% / 20% {+43%}
                            • Mitt Romney 53% / 24% {+29%}
                            Among Independents
                            • Mike Huckabee 55% / 30% {+25%}
                            • Mitt Romney 35% / 37% {-2%}
                            • Sarah Palin 33% / 61% {-28%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 26% / 58% {-32%}
                            Among Conservatives
                            • Mike Huckabee 71% / 13% {+58%}
                            • Sarah Palin 67% / 26% {+41%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 53% / 30% {+23%}
                            • Mitt Romney 49% / 30% {+19%}
                            Among Moderates
                            • Mike Huckabee 38% / 39% {-1%}
                            • Mitt Romney 32% / 38% {-6%}
                            • Newt Gingrich 24% / 55% {-31%}
                            • Sarah Palin 18% / 78% {-60%}
                              Among Men
                              • Mike Huckabee 56% / 36% {+20%}
                              • Mitt Romney 46% / 40% {+6%}
                              • Newt Gingrich 42% / 48% {-6%}
                              • Sarah Palin 45% / 52% {-7%}
                              Among Women
                              • Mike Huckabee 46% / 24% {+22%}
                              • Mitt Romney 34% / 34% {0%}
                              • Newt Gingrich 35% / 40% {-5%}
                              • Sarah Palin 39% / 53% {-14%}
                              Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                              • Approve 42%
                              • Disapprove 55%
                                  Survey of 892 Texas voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% Republican; 31% Democrat; 27% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 50% Conservative; 37% Moderate; 13% Liberal.

                                  Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                                  PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
                                  • Mike Huckabee 24% [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 14% [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 14% [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 11% [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 8% [5%]
                                  • Ron Paul 7% [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
                                  • Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
                                  • John Thune 1% [3%]
                                  Among Conservatives
                                  • Mike Huckabee 25% [14%] (21%) {24%} [21%] (18%) {26%} [28%] (28%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 16% [24%] (21%) {22%} [19%] (22%) {21%} [25%] (27%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 14% [15%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (24%) {21%} [34%] (25%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 11% [23%] (22%) {24%} [22%] (20%) {23%}
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 8% [5%]
                                  • Ron Paul 7% [6%] (5%) {3%} [8%] (6%) {7%} (11%)
                                  • Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
                                  • John Thune 1% [3%]
                                  Among Moderates
                                  • Mike Huckabee 20% [20%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (28%) {21%} [26%] (16%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 18% [25%] (33%) {27%} [23%] (25%) {27%} [31%] (35%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 9% [10%] (9%) {14%} [26%] (12%) {16%}
                                  • Sarah Palin 9% [13%] (7%) {19%} [11%] (14%) {15%} [19%] (17%)
                                  • Ron Paul 8% [4%] (6%) {7%} [4%] (8%) {11%} (9%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 8% [4%]
                                  • Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
                                  • John Thune 1% [3%]
                                  Among Men
                                  • Mike Huckabee 18% [11%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (22%) {22%} [25%] (23%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 16% [16%] (19%) {19%} [20%] (23%) {24%} [35%] (32%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 14% [23%] (20%) {28%} [26%] (17%) {21%}
                                  • Sarah Palin 14% [23%] (20%) {21%} [17%] (20%) {19%} [24%] (19%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 9% [6%]
                                  • Ron Paul 8% [6%] (7%) {5%} [9%] (9%) {9%} (11%)
                                  • Mitch Daniels 7% [2%]
                                  • John Thune 1% [2%]
                                  Among Women
                                  • Mike Huckabee 30% [20%] (26%) {27%} [26%] (22%) {29%} [30%] (24%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 15% [19%] (13%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (28%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 12% [20%] (25%) {25%} [18%] (27%) {22%} [31%] (23%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 7% [16%] (16%) {14%} [19%] (14%) {20%}
                                  • Ron Paul 6% [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {7%} (11%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 6% [3%]
                                  • John Thune 1% [3%]
                                  • Mitch Daniels 1% [2%]
                                    Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                    • Mike Huckabee 64% [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 16% [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+48%}
                                    • Sarah Palin 65% [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 26% [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+39%}
                                    • Newt Gingrich 58% [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 24% [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+34%}
                                    • Mitt Romney 52% [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 28% [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+24%}
                                    Among Conservatives
                                    • Mike Huckabee 73% [71%] (65%) {69%} [68%] (58%) {69%} [60%] (62%) / 10% [13%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (12%) {9%} [10%] (12%) {+63%}
                                    • Sarah Palin 74% [78%] (77%) {86%} [78%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (80%) / 16% [13%] (10%) {8%} [7%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (9%) {+58%}
                                    • Newt Gingrich 65% [65%] (65%) {72%} [69%] (64%) {64%} / 18% [21%] (18%) {14%} [9%] (11%) {17%} {+47%}
                                    • Mitt Romney 55% [59%] (57%) {58%} [62%] (62%) {57%} [58%] (63%) / 25% [23%] (21%) {19%} [12%] (10%) {18%} [21%] (13%) {+30%} 
                                    Among Moderates
                                    • Mitt Romney 50% [50%] (62%) {59%} [51%] (50%) {46%} [44%] (48%) / 31% [27%] (21%) {22%} [17%] (22%) {24%} [34%] (25%) {+19%}
                                    • Mike Huckabee 45% [44%] (47%) {44%} [51%] (45%) {27%} [42%] (42%) / 29% [25%] (21%) {22%} [13%] (20%) {25%} [22%] (22%) {+16%}
                                    • Newt Gingrich 42% [38%] (41%) {47%} [46%] (47%) {37%} / 41% [45%] (40%) {31%} [24%] (28%) {31%} {+1%}
                                    • Sarah Palin 43% [44%] (41%) {49%} [46%] (47%) {37%} [40%] (49%) / 50% [44%] (39%) {43%} [35%] (33%) {46%} [44%] (31%) {-7%}
                                      Survey of 515 usual national Republican primary voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 73% [71%] (69%) {72%} [73%] (65%) {72%} [73%] (65%) Conservative; 25% [28%] (26%) {25%} [25%] (32%) {25%] [25%] (34%) Moderate; 3% [1%] (5%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (1%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

                                      Poll Watch: Washington Post-ABC News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                                      Washington Post-ABC News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
                                      • Mike Huckabee 21%
                                      • Sarah Palin 19%
                                      • Mitt Romney 17%
                                      • Newt Gingrich 9%
                                      • Chris Christie 8%
                                      • Rick Perry 3%
                                      • Mitch Daniels 2%
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 2%
                                      • Mike Pence 2%
                                      • Haley Barbour 1%
                                      • Jim DeMint 1%
                                      • Jon Huntsman 1%
                                      • Rick Santorum 1%
                                      • John Thune 0%
                                      • Other (vol.) 1%
                                      • None of these (vol.) 6%
                                      • No opinion 6%
                                      Survey of 425 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted January 13-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

                                      Inside the numbers:
                                      Huckabee and Palin, in particular, seem to share a common base -- both running more strongly among those with family incomes of $50,000 or less (Huckabee 26 percent, Palin 25 percent) and whites without college degrees (Palin 26 percent, Huckabee 25 percent).
                                      Romney, on the other hand, runs best among the college educated (30 percent), whites making over $50,000 a year (29 percent) and whites with college degrees (32 percent).
                                      Among self-identified conservatives, the top tier expands slightly to include Christie and Gingrich. Nineteen percent of conservatives favor Huckabee as compared to 16 percent for Romney, 14 percent for Palin and 11 percent each for Gingrich and Christie.
                                      Slice that vote even thinner to include only those who describe themselves as "very conservative," and Huckabee emerges as the clearer favorite with 21 percent followed by Palin and Gingrich at 14 percent. Romney takes 12 percent to Christie's 11 percent among that subset.
                                      Huckabee is also the favored candidate of white evangelical Protestants; he takes 29 percent among that group as compared to 22 percent for Palin and 12 percent for Romney.

                                      Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

                                      PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey
                                      • Barack Obama 49% (48%) {44%} [47%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [49%] (47%) {48%} [47%] (48%) {50%} [52%] (49%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 44% (45%) {47%} [44%] (47%) {44%} [45%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [39%] (42%)
                                      • Barack Obama 48% (47%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 43% (46%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {42%} [44%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {40%} [35%] (39%)
                                      • Barack Obama 51% (49%) {47%} [49%] (45%) {47%} [49%] (45%) [49%] (50%) {49%} [53%] (52%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 39% (43%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [42%] (45%) [41%] (42%) {41%} [36%] (39%)
                                      • Barack Obama 55% (51%) {49%} [49%] (46%) {50%} [50%] (47%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [51%] (52%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {52%} [56%] (53%) <55%>
                                      • Sarah Palin 38% (42%) {43%} [43%] (46%) {41%} [43%] (45%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {44%} [43%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (41%) <35%>
                                      • Barack Obama 51% 
                                      • Michele Bachmann 33%
                                      Among Independents
                                      • Mitt Romney 46% (43%) {38%} [40%] (48%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (44%) {37%} [42%] (40%) {35%} [41%] (43%) {42%} [30%] (35%)
                                      • Barack Obama 43% (43%) {41%} [41%] (35%) {33%} [41%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (37%) {47%} [44%] (41%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {35%} [55%] (52%)
                                      • Barack Obama 47% (46%) {38%} [46%] (40%) {36%} [42%] (41%) {42%} [42%] (38%) {49%} [49%] (43%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {40%} [55%] (53%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 44% (44%) {43%} [38%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (41%) {43%} [43%] (44%) {41%} [42%] (40%) {33%} [41%] (43%) {46%} [35%] (37%)
                                      • Barack Obama 46% (47%) {46%} [49%] (39%) {34%} [48%] (44%) [45%] (46%) {41%} [54%] (54%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 40% (44%) {37%} [36%] (50%) {42%} [34%] (40%) [38%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (38%)
                                      • Barack Obama 51% (53%) {48%} [52%] (42%) {40%} [50%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (42%) {50%} [51%] (47%) {52%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (51%) <46%>
                                      • Sarah Palin 38% (41%) {34%} [39%] (47%) {43%} [37%] (39%) {35%} [39%] (41%) {41%} [42%] (35%) {35%} [34%] (41%) {41%} [37%] (44%) <42%>
                                      • Barack Obama 46% 
                                      • Michele Bachmann 33% 
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Independent vote (29% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Independent vote.

                                      Among Republicans
                                      • Mike Huckabee 80% (87%) {84%} [86%] (85%) {81%} [84%] (86%) {82%} [81%] (82%) {83%} [87%] (79%) {77%} [80%] (76%) {79%} [74%] (77%)
                                      • Barack Obama 11% (9%) {8%} [9%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (7%) {10%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [5%] (10%) {13%} [11%] (12%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 78% (87%) {82%} [80%] (82%) {79%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [80%] (77%) {78%} [83%] (77%) {72%} [74%] (71%) {74%} [66%] (71%)
                                      • Barack Obama 12% (9%) {7%} [5%] (7%) {8%} [9%] (6%) {7%} [10%] (9%) {8%} [6%] (10%) {14%} [11%] (18%) {19%} [18%] (16%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 72% (81%) {80%} [84%] (83%) {73%} [82%] (82%) [76%] (80%) {76%} [73%] (75%)
                                      • Barack Obama 14% (10%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {11%} [10%] (6%) [13%] (11%) {16%} [16%] (14%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 69% (79%) {81%} [81%] (81%) {78%} [81%] (85%) {82%} [78%] (77%) {80%} [84%] (77%) {70%} [74%] (79%) {72%} [65%] (71%) <66%>
                                      • Barack Obama 20% (13%) {11%} [7%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (8%) {10%} [14%] (14%) {12%} [7%] (15%) {18%} [15%] (14%) {18%} [27%] (21%) <17%>
                                      • Michele Bachmann 61%
                                      • Barack Obama 16%
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 90% of the Republican vote (32% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 93% of the Republican vote.

                                      Among Democrats
                                      • Barack Obama 86% (83%) {79%} [83%] (82%) {81%} [80%] (84%) {76%} [78%] (82%) {77%} [84%] (79%) {78%} [80%] (81%) {81%} [81%] (77%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 10% (11%) {17%} [11%] (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {16%} [12%] (10%) {16%} [11%] (15%) {15%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [12%] (17%)
                                      • Barack Obama 86% (83%) {82%} [83%] (80%) {82%} [80%] (86%) {76%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [86%] (82%) {78%} [81%] (77%) {79%} [81%] (77%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 8% (12%) {12%} [9%] (14%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {16%} [13%] (7%) {14%} [11%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (14%)
                                      • Barack Obama 88% (84%) {81%} [86%] (83%) {83%} [82%] (86%) [82%] (84%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 8% (10%) {15%} [8%] (12%) {10%} [12%] (11%) [12%] (12%)
                                      • Barack Obama 89% (84%) {83%} [85%] (81%) {86%} [83%] (87%) {78%} [81%] (88%) {82%} [89%] (86%) {83%} [84%] (83%) {82%} [83%] (81%) <89%>
                                      • Sarah Palin 9% (10%) {14%} [11%] (14%) {11%} [15%] (10%) {14%} [15%] (8%) {15%} [10%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (15%) {15%} [14%] (15%) <7%>
                                      • Barack Obama 85%
                                      • Michele Bachmann 7%
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 10% of the Democratic vote (39% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 11% of the Democratic vote.

                                      Among Moderates
                                      • Barack Obama 62% (60%) {59%} [55%] (55%) {58%} [59%] (62%) {55%} [54%] (58%) {65%} [59%] (60%) {57%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [64%] (63%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 28% (33%) {31%} [29%] (33%) {26%} [30%] (27%) {31%} [31%] (26%) {24%} [31%] (28%) {30%} [30%] (32%) {28%} [24%] (26%)
                                      • Barack Obama 64% (62%) {57%} [59%] (61%) {61%} [61%] (64%) {59%} [57%] (61%) {63%} [62%] (61%) {58%} [56%] (58%) {64%} [66%] (65%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 25% (28%) {31%} [29%] (29%) {29%} [27%] (26%) {30%} [30%] (28%) {29%} [30%] (29%) {31%} [32%] (32%) {28%} [25%] (26%)
                                      • Barack Obama 66% (64%) {62%} [62%] (58%) {61%} [65%] (66%) [60%] (61%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 22% (26%) {28%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [25%] (25%) [28%] (30%)
                                      • Barack Obama 73% (70%) {65%} [62%] (62%) {66%} [66%] (69%) {62%} [63%] (66%) {69%} [65%] (66%) {68%} [63%] (62%) {68%} [71%] (65%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 20% (22%) {25%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [26%] (24%) {26%} [27%] (24%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {23%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [22%] (30%)
                                      • Barack Obama 66%  
                                      • Michele Bachmann 16%
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 39% of the Moderate vote (44% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the Moderate vote.

                                      Among Men
                                      • Mitt Romney 46% (49%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (46%) {44%} [38%] (44%)
                                      • Barack Obama 44% (43%) {40%} [40%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (46%) {39%} [45%] (44%) {42%} [48%] (46%) {44%} [44%] (46%{46%} [49%] (49%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 46% (52%) {52%} [48%] (44%) {44%} [48%] (48%) {51%} [44%] (47%) {52%} [44%] (47%) {47%} [49%] (49%) {48%} [41%] (47%)
                                      • Barack Obama 45% (43%) {38%} [43%] (48%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {41%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [49%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [50%] (46%)
                                      • Barack Obama 45% (44%) {41%} [44%] (47%) {44%} [48%] (46%) [45%] (44%) {46%} [50%] (48%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 44% (50%) {49%} [46%] (46%) {42%} [44%] (46%) [46%] (49%) {46%} [40%] (44%)
                                      • Barack Obama 48% (46%) {45%} [43%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (48%) {44%} [50%] (50%) {45%} [52%] (50%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {48%} [53%] (49%) <45%>
                                      • Sarah Palin 43% (48%) {47%} [47%] (44%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {48%} [44%] (42%) {48%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (47%) {44%} [41%] (47%) <43%>
                                      • Barack Obama 47%
                                      • Michele Bachmann 36%
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the Male vote (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 55% of the Male vote.

                                      Among Women
                                      • Barack Obama 55% (53%) {49%} [51%] (42%) {48%} [48%] (45%) {50%} [46%] (44%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {50%} [50%] (53%) {54%} [54%] (52%)
                                      • Mike Huckabee 41% (40%) {43%} [41%] (49%) {43%} [43%] (46%) {38%} [43%] (43%) {40%} [45%] (39%) {36%} [39%] (36%) {37%} [36%] (37%)
                                      • Barack Obama 54% (51%) {50%} [50%] (42%) {48%} [47%] (43%) {49%} [45%] (43%) {50%} [47%] (50%) {52%} [50%] (51%) {50%} [56%] (52%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 39% (42%) {39%} [38%] (48%) {39%} [41%] (44%) {39%} [42%] (39%) {35%} [44%] (36%) {34%} [36%] (35%) {37%} [31%] (34%)
                                      • Barack Obama 57% (54%) {52%} [52%] (43%) {50%} [49%] (45%) [53%] (54%) {53%} [56%] (56%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 34% (37%) {38%} [38%] (47%) {35%} [39%] (43%) [35%] (35%) {36%} [32%] (33%)
                                      • Barack Obama 62% (56%) {53%} [55%] (44%) {52%} [52%] (46%) {53%} [50%] (48%) {53%} [51%] (54%) {55%} [56%] (54%) {55%} [58%] (56%) <65%>
                                      • Sarah Palin 32% (36%) {40%} [40%] (47%) {38%} [41%] (45%) {35%} [41%] (41%) {41%} [45%] (37%) {36%} [35%] (40%) {36%} [34%] (36%) <26%>
                                      • Barack Obama 55%
                                      • Michele Bachmann 29%
                                      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 43% of the Female vote (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Female vote.

                                      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                      • Mike Huckabee 37% (39%) {35%} [32%] (37%) {27%} [33%] (32%) {31%} [35%] (35%) {35%} [36%] (33%) {38%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (42%) / 38% (40%) {32%} [34%] (28%) {31%} [30%] (31%) {36%} [26%] (29%) {35%} [37%] (29%) {36%} [28%] (33%) {34%} [32%] (34%) {-1%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 36% (36%) {33%} [35%] (32%) {31%} [33%] (33%) {32%} [37%] (36%) {32%} [30%] (34%) {33%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [40%] (40%) / 40% (42%) {35%} [37%] (33%) {36%} [36%] (42%) {39%} [28%] (32%) {36%} [39%] (34%) {38%} [34%] (37%){36%} [36%] (35%) {-4%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 31% (33%) {30%} [31%] (32%) {28%} [29%] (34%) [33%] (36%) {35%} [30%] (36%) / 52% (53%) {50%} [48%] (42%) {46%} [48%] (47%) [42%] (42%) {46%} [47%] (44%) {-21%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 35% (38%) {38%} [37%] (37%) {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [39%] (42%) {41%} [40%] (36%) {37%} [40%] (47%) {43%} [42%] (42%) <39%> / 58% (55%) {52%} [54%] (52%) {53%} [56%] (52%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {55%} [49%] (45%) {49%} [50%] (49%) <50%> {-23%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 22% / 31% {-9%}
                                      Among Independents
                                      • Mitt Romney 43% (33%) {31%} [34%] (30%) {34%} [32%] (30%) {37%} [44%] (41%) {28%} [31%] (38%) {38%} [40%] (45%) {40%} [37%] (36%) / 31% (46%) {36%} [40%] (34%) {32%} [35%] (41%) {34%} [22%] (32%) {39%} [37%] (28%) {33%} [31%] (28%) {33%} [42%] (39%) {+12%}
                                      • Mike Huckabee 39% (36%) {32%} [24%] (37%) {24%} [30%] (29%) {31%} [38%] (38%) {34%} [32%] (34%) {32%} [48%] (44%) {46%} [44%] (37%) / 35% (42%) {37%} [38%] (31%) {29%} [31%] (33%) {31%} [20%] (30%) {41%} [41%] (27%) {38%} [24%] (30%) {31%} [36%] (36%) {+4%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 36% (37%) {34%} [33%] (36%) {33%} [33%] (33%) {31%} [33%] (42%) {39%} [36%] (34%) {33%} [37%] (45%) {44%} [34%] (38%) <47%> / 56% (58%) {58%} [56%] (48%) {49%} [60%] (50%) {53%} [53%] (51%) {54%} [49%] (48%) {59%} [49%] (43%) {42%} [58%] (51%) <43%> {-20%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 28% (31%) {21%} [24%] (32%) {27%} [27%] (29%) [34%] (31%) / 51% (54%) {56%} [51%] (40%) {43%} [51%] (51%) [45%] (44%) {-23%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 26% / 29% {-3%}
                                      Among Republicans
                                      • Mike Huckabee 60% (68%) {56%} [59%] (63%) {50%} [57%] (55%) {55%} [56%] (56%) {57%} [65%] (56%) {70%} [66%] (66%) {70%} [64%] (67%) / 17% (18%) {14%} [15%] (11%) {18%} [14%] (10%) {17%} [14%] (17%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {12%} [13%] (19%) {17%} [20%] (18%) {+43%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 55% (58%) {54%} [61%] (60%) {50%} [55%] (62%) [56%] (65%) / 26% (27%) {23%} [21%] (17%) {22%} [19%] (17%) [21%] (17%) {+29%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 59% (67%) {69%} [71%] (68%) {66%} [67%] (71%) {69%} [72%] (71%) {73%} [75%] (72%) {69%} [72%] (76%) {75%} [76%] (76%) <69%> / 32% (25%) {18%} [19%] (16%) {19%} [23%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (19%) {18%} [15%] (18%) {22%} [16%] (19%) {20%} [15%](18%) <17%> {+27%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 50% (59%) {56%} [57%] (54%) {49%} [55%] (52%) {57%} [58%] (56%) {51%} [48%] (54%) {50%} [52%] (54%) {63%} [67%] (60%) / 30% (21%) {20%} [18%] (18%) {18%} [17%] (25%) {20%} [14%] (17%) {15%} [19%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (25%) {21%} [17%] (21%) {+20%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 30% / 16% {+14%}
                                      Among Democrats
                                      • Mitt Romney 20% (19%) {15%} [16%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (15%) {10%} [15%] (12%) {18%} [14%] (15%) {15%} [23%] (20%) {24%} [20%] (27%) / 55% (59%) {49%} [53%] (45%) {53%} [51%] (60%) {56%} [44%] (47%) {53%} [56%] (48%) {55%} [49%] (52%) {49%} [49%] (45%) {-35%}
                                      • Mike Huckabee 15% (15%) {17%} [13%] (15%) {12%} [15%] (12%) {13%} [16%] (11%) {17%} [13%] (14%) {13%} [26%] (22%) {21%} [27%] (25%) / 59% (57%) {44%} [50%] (40%) {42%} [42%] (51%) {52%} [40%] (40%) {48%} [56%] (42%) {55%} [43%] (46%) {50%} [40%] (45%) {-44%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 11% (13%) {13%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [7%] (9%) [13%] (13%) / 75% (74%) {71%} [71%] (66%) {66%} [72%] (74%) [57%] (61%) {-64%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 11% (14%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {15%} [13%] (14%) {14%} [13%] (9%) {12%} [15%] (25%) {18%} [17%] (18%) <11%> / 83% (79%) {80%} [83%] (86%) {81%} [82%] (87%) {72%} [74%] (80%) {76%} [78%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (67%) {76%} [74%] (73%) <78%> {-72%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 12% / 44% {-32%}
                                      Among Conservatives
                                      • Mike Huckabee 63% (67%) {54%} [56%] (62%) {43%} [60%] (52%) {54%} [57%] (57%) {59%} [66%] (53%){59%} [61%] (65%) {68%} [60%] (56%) / 14% (17%) {14%} [18%] (13%) {17%} [11%] (10%) {14%} [13%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (12%) {15%} [13%] (16%) {17%} [19%] (18%) {+49%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 66% (73%) {73%} [69%] (65%) {60%} [69%] (70%) {70%} [69%] (69%) {73%} [80%] (65%) {69%} [68%] (73%) {72%} [73%] (67%) / 23% (19%) {18%} [21%] (21%) {22%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%](19%) {22%}[20%] (18%) {21%} [17%] (20%) {+43%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 57% (61%) {53%} [59%] (56%) {45%} [55%] (61%) [52%] (59%) {61%} [51%] (59%) / 23% (23%) {21%} [22%] (17%) {22%} [22%] (18%) [20%] (18%) {23%} [22%] (18%) {+34%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 50% (52%) {48%} [55%] (48%) {44%} [49%] (49%) {56%} [51%] (52%) {50%} [46%] (49%) {46%} [49%] (53%) {58%} [59%] (54%) / 28% (27%) {20%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [20%] (25%) {17%} [15%] (15%) {16%} [22%] (16%) {20%} [22%] (20%) {22%} [18%] (19%) {+22%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 37% / 13% {+24%}
                                      Among Moderates
                                      • Mitt Romney 31% (33%) {30%} [29%] (26%) {26%} [29%] (25%) {22%} [37%] (30%) {23%} [26%] (29%) {32%} [34%] (33%) {35%} [35%] (34%) / 42% (45%) {39%} [42%] (34%) {42%} [36%] (49%) {48%} [29%] (38%) {44%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [36%] (39%) {40%} [42%] (44%) {-11%}
                                      • Mike Huckabee 23% (24%) {25%} [21%] (23%) {22%} [20%] (22%) {22%} [28%] (21%) {22%} [25%] (24%) {29%} [40%] (34%) {33%} [40%] (36%) / 48% (48%) {39%} [37%] (32%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {44%} [29%] (37%) {43%} [45%] (34%) {43%} [30%] (36%) {38%} [36%] (41%) {-25%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 18% (18%) {17%} [19%] (19%) {19%} [18%] (18%) [24%] (24%) {23%} [21%] (23%) / 65% (67%) {63%} [59%] (53%) {55%} [59%] (64%) [49%] (52%) {53%} [58%] (60%) {-47%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 18% (19%) {20%} [23%] (20%) {21%} [19%] (19%) {23%} [23%] (26%) {23%} [23%] (22%) {20%} [29%] (33%) {33%} [29%] (28%) / 77% (73%) {70%} [67%] (67%) {67%} [72%] (71%) {64%} [63%] (68%) {70%} [62%] (66%) {71%} [58%] (58%) {58%} [64%] (67%) {-59%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 13% / 40% {-27%}
                                      Among Men
                                      • Mike Huckabee 40% (42%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {25%} [31%] (33%) {34%} [35%] (35%) {40%} [34%] (34%) {41%} [47%] (48%) {47%} [45%] (47%) / 41% (40%) {35%} [36%] (32%) {33%} [36%] (36%) {33%} [30%] (33%) {38%} [45%] (35%) {40%} [28%] (32%) {39%} [33%] (36%) {-1%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 40% (39%) {37%} [40%] (31%) {33%} [34%] (34%) {37%} [40%] (42%) {37%} [32%] (39%) {34%} [42%] (42%) {44%} [45%] (45%) / 42% (43%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {39%} [41%] (49%) {38%} [29%] (35%) {37%} [41%] (35%) {43%} [37%] (38%) {38%} [34%] (39%) {-2%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 36% (40%) {36%} [37%] (32%) {32%} [30%] (37%) [38%] (44%) / 50% (47%) {46%} [47%] (45%) {46%} [50%] (51%) [41%] (37%) {-14%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 37% (42%) {41%} [40%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (40%) {38%} [39%] (41%) {45%} [37%] (40%) {39%} [43%] (50%) {47%} [48%] (46%) <48%> / 54% (51%) {48%} [49%] (54%) {50%} [56%] (54%) {50%} [48%] (50%) {50%} [51%] (47%) {54%} [46%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (49%) <38%> {-17%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 22% / 35% {-13%}
                                      Among Women
                                      • Mike Huckabee 34% (35%) {34%} [33%] (38%) {30%} [35%] (32%) {27%} [35%] (34%) {32%} [37%] (32%) {35%} [43%] (38%) {40%} [43%] (37%) / 35% (40%) {29%} [33%] (23%) {28%} [24%] (26%) {38%} [22%] (27%) {32%} [29%] (23%) {33%} [28%] (34%) {30%} [32%] (32%) {-1%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 32% (34%) {31%} [30%] (34%) {30%} [33%] (31%) {27%} [35%] (31%) {27%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [33%] (34%) {39%} [36%] (36%) / 38% (42%) {32%} [38%] (29%) {34%} [31%] (35%) {40%} [27%] (30%) {35%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [32%] (36%) {34%} [38%] (32%) {-6%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 26% (26%) {25%} [26%] (32%) {23%} [28%] (31%) [28%] (28%) / 53% (57%) {53%} [49%] (39%) {46%} [47%] (43%) [42%] (46%) {-27%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 32% (34%) {37%} [35%] (37%) {30%} [36%] (37%) {35%} [38%] (43%) {37%} [42%] (32%) {36%} [37%] (45%) {40%} [36%] (39%) <29%> / 63% (59%) {56%} [57%] (50%) {55%} [56%] (51%) {51%} [50%] (51%) {51%} [48%] (54%) {55%} [51%] (46%) {53%} [53%] (49%) <61%> {-31%}
                                      • Michele Bachmann 21% / 26% {-5%}
                                      Survey of 632 American voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% (42%) {41%} [39%] (39%) {43%} [41%] (38%) {43%} [40%] {38%} (36%) [39%] Democrat; 37% (35%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {34%} [35%] (38%) {33%} [34%] {34%} (35%) [34%] Republican; 23% (23%) {23%} [25%] (27%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {24%} [26%] {28%} (29%) [27%] Independent/Other. Political views: 41% (45%) {42%} [42%] (38%) {44%} [44%] (37%) {47%} [48%] {40%} (47%) [41%] Moderate; 40% (39%) {39%} [39%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (42%) {35%} [35%] {41%} (39%) [41%] Conservative; 18% (17%) {19%} [19%] (19%) {18%} [19%] (21%) {18%} [16%] {19%} (14%) [18%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 13-15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll onducted October 16-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-16, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-18, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2009 are in angle brackets.

                                      Thursday, January 20, 2011

                                      Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

                                      NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2012 Presidential Survey

                                      2012 Republican Nomination

                                      1st Choice
                                      • Mitt Romney 19%
                                      • Mike Huckabee 18%
                                      • Sarah Palin 14%
                                      • Newt Gingrich 10%
                                      • Ron Paul 8%
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 5%
                                      • Mitch Daniels 3%
                                      • Rick Santorum 3%
                                      • Haley Barbour 2%
                                      • John Thune 1%
                                      • Other (VOL) 2%
                                      • None (VOL) 6%
                                      • Not sure 8%
                                      2nd Choice
                                      • Mike Huckabee 16%
                                      • Mitt Romney 15%
                                      • Sarah Palin 12%
                                      • Newt Gingrich 9%
                                      • Ron Paul 8%
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 3%
                                      • Mitch Daniels 2%
                                      • Rick Santorum 2%
                                      • Haley Barbour 2%
                                      • John Thune 2%
                                      • Other (VOL) 1%
                                      • None (VOL) 4%
                                      • Not sure 7%
                                      Combined Choice
                                      • Mitt Romney 34%
                                      • Mike Huckabee 34%
                                      • Sarah Palin 26%
                                      • Newt Gingrich 19%
                                      • Ron Paul 16%
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 8%
                                      • Mitch Daniels 5%
                                      • Rick Santorum 5%
                                      • Haley Barbour 4%
                                      • John Thune 3%
                                      • Other (VOL) 3%
                                      • None (VOL) 10%
                                      • Not sure 15%
                                      2012 Presidential Election
                                      • Barack Obama 51%
                                      • Mike Huckabee 41%
                                      • Barack Obama 54%
                                      • Newt Gingrich 35%
                                      I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.

                                      Barack Obama
                                      • Very positive 29%
                                      • Somewhat positive 23%
                                      • Neutral 15%
                                      • Somewhat negative 14%
                                      • Very negative 18%
                                      Sarah Palin
                                      • Very positive 8%
                                      • Somewhat positive 19%
                                      • Neutral 21%
                                      • Somewhat negative 16%
                                      • Very negative 33%
                                      The Democratic Party
                                      • Very positive 15%
                                      • Somewhat positive 24%
                                      • Neutral 25%
                                      • Somewhat negative 19%
                                      • Very negative 16%
                                      The Republican Party
                                      • Very positive 7%
                                      • Somewhat positive 27%
                                      • Neutral 24%
                                      • Somewhat negative 21%
                                      • Very negative 19%
                                      The Tea Party Movement
                                      • Very positive 13%
                                      • Somewhat positive 16%
                                      • Neutral 22%
                                      • Somewhat negative 14%
                                      • Very negative 24%
                                      In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?
                                      • Approve 53%
                                      • Disapprove 41%
                                      Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?
                                      • Approve 45%
                                      • Disapprove 50%
                                      Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the war in Afghanistan?
                                      • Approve 49%
                                      • Disapprove 38%
                                      Would you describe Barack Obama as liberal, moderate, or conservative?
                                      • Very liberal 27%
                                      • Somewhat liberal 18%
                                      • Moderate 40%
                                      • Somewhat conservative 8%
                                      • Very conservative 3%
                                      Do you think President Obama will be too inflexible in dealing with Republicans in Congress, will be too quick to give in to Republicans in Congress, or will he strike the right balance in dealing with Republicans in Congress?
                                      • Too inflexible 26%
                                      • Too quick to give in 15%
                                      • Right balance 55%
                                      Do you think Republicans in Congress will be too inflexible in dealing with President Obama, will be too quick to give in to President Obama, or will they strike the right balance in dealing with President Obama?
                                      • Too inflexible 55%
                                      • Too quick to give in 8%
                                      • Right balance 32%
                                      Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?
                                      • Yes 27%
                                      • No 62%
                                      In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?
                                      • More strict 52%
                                      • Less strict 10%
                                      • Kept as now 37%
                                      From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President last year, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?
                                      • Good idea 39%
                                      • Bad idea 39%
                                      And, would you favor or oppose repealing and eliminating this new health care law? And, do you feel that way strongly, or not so strongly?
                                      • Strongly favor eliminating 35%
                                      • Not so strongly favor eliminating 10%
                                      • Not so strongly oppose eliminating 12%
                                      • Strongly oppose eliminating 34%
                                      The President has announced that he plans to begin reducing American troop levels in Afghanistan in July 2011. Which of these statements comes closest to your point of view on this?

                                      Statement A: The troops should be removed now.
                                      Statement B: The troops should be removed on the timetable of July 2011.
                                      Statement C: The troops should be removed depending upon the military conditions in July 2011.
                                      Statement D: The troops should only be removed after the Afghan government has stabilized and the Taliban has been defeated.
                                      • A/Removed now 23%
                                      • B/Removed on this timetable 21%
                                      • C/Removed depending on military conditions 34%
                                      • D/Removed after gov’t stabilized and Taliban defeated 21%
                                      As you may know, under our constitution and current laws, all children born in the United States are automatically granted citizenship. Do you think we should continue to grant citizenship to all children born in the U.S. or do you think this should be changed so children of illegal immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship?
                                      • Continue to grant automatic citizenship 50%
                                      • Change/not automatic citizenship 47%
                                      Among Hispanics
                                      • Continue to grant automatic citizenship 79%
                                      • Change/not automatic citizenship 19%
                                      Thinking about the shootings of a Member of Congress, a Federal judge and others in Tucson, Arizona last weekend, do you feel the extreme political rhetoric used by some in the media and by political leaders was an important contributor to the incident or do you feel this is more of an isolated incident by a disturbed person that occurs from time to time?
                                      • Isolated incident by disturbed person 71%
                                      • Rhetoric an important contributor 24%
                                      • Some of both (VOL) 3%
                                      Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the shootings of a Member of Congress, a Federal judge and others in Tucson, Arizona?
                                      • Approve 74%
                                      • Disapprove 11%
                                      Survey of 1,000 adults was conducted January 13-17, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: Strong Democrat 20%; Not very strong Democrat 11%; Independent/lean Democrat 10%; Strictly Independent 18%; Independent/lean Republican 11%; Not very strong Republican 9%; Strong Republican 12%. Political ideology: Very liberal 7%; Somewhat liberal 15%; Moderate 41%; Somewhat conservative 20%; Very conservative 14%.

                                      Wednesday, January 19, 2011

                                      Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Primary

                                      PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Primary
                                      • Mike Huckabee 25% (20%) {19%} [22%] (29%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 21% (22%) {19%} [17%] (23%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 17% (15%) {23%} [25%]
                                      • Mitt Romney 10% (15%) {17%} [18%] (32%)
                                      • Ron Paul 9% {8%} [8%]
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 5% (3%)
                                      • Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 8% (20%)
                                      Among Conservatives
                                      • Mike Huckabee 26% (20%) {18%} [23%] (32%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 21% (23%) {21%} [18%] (27%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 20% (17%) {24%} [28%]
                                      • Ron Paul 9% {7%} [11%]
                                      • Mitt Romney 9% (14%) {18%} [16%] (30%)
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 6% (3%)
                                      • Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 7% (18%)
                                      Among Moderates
                                      • Mike Huckabee 23% (16%) {22%} [17%] (22%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 23% (14%) {10%} [14%] (13%)
                                      • Mitt Romney 13% (23%) {15%} [26%] (40%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 12% (10%) {17%} [15%]
                                      • Ron Paul 11% {9%} [6%]
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 5% (2%)
                                      • Mitch Daniels 0% (1%)
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 13% (25%)
                                      Among Men
                                      • Mike Huckabee 25% (19%) {18%} [21%] (27%)
                                      • Sarah Palin 25% (20%) {16%} [18%] (26%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 14% (22%) {29%} [27%]
                                      • Mitt Romney 11% (15%) {18%} [17%] (33%)
                                      • Ron Paul 8% {8%} [10%]
                                      • Mitch Daniels 6% (2%)
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%)
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 5% (12%)
                                      Among Women
                                      • Mike Huckabee 24% (21%) {20%} [22%] (30%)
                                      • Newt Gingrich 21% (7%) {16%} [22%]
                                      • Sarah Palin 17% (23%) {23%} [16%] (21%)
                                      • Ron Paul 10% {7%} [11%]
                                      • Mitt Romney 10% (16%) {16%} [19%] (31%)
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 6% (2%)
                                      • Mitch Daniels 1% (2%)
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 12% (28%)
                                      If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
                                      • Mike Huckabee 24% [18%]
                                      • Newt Gingrich 17% [23%]
                                      • Sarah Palin 17% [17%]
                                      • Ron Paul 10% [8%]
                                      • Mitt Romney 10% [14%]
                                      • Rick Perry 9% [8%]
                                      • Tim Pawlenty 4%
                                      • Mitch Daniels 3%
                                      • Someone else/Undecided 5%
                                      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                      • Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 69% / 24% {+45%}
                                      • Rick Perry 65% / 26% {+39%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 60% / 22% {+38%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 52% / 27% {+25%}
                                      Among Conservatives
                                      • Mike Huckabee 77% / 9% {+68%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 77% / 15% {+62%}
                                      • Rick Perry 70% / 19% {+51%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 67% / 16% {+51%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 54% / 25% {+29%}
                                      Among Moderates
                                      • Mike Huckabee 60% / 25% {+35%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 54% / 29% {+25%}
                                      • Rick Perry 52% / 42% {+10%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 44% / 37% {+7%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 45% / 51% {-6%}
                                      Among Men
                                      • Mike Huckabee 71% / 20% {+51%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 71% / 24% {+47%}
                                      • Rick Perry 64% / 29% {+35%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 62% / 28% {+34%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 52% / 35% {+17%}
                                      Among Women
                                      • Mike Huckabee 70% / 10% {+60%}
                                      • Sarah Palin 67% / 25% {+42%}
                                      • Rick Perry 65% / 23% {+42%}
                                      • Newt Gingrich 59% / 17% {+42%}
                                      • Mitt Romney 51% / 21% {+30%}
                                      Survey of 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 75% {75%} [77%] (73%) Conservative; 21% {23%} [22%] (25%) Moderate; 4% {3%} [2%] (2%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 2-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-20, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.