Saturday, December 29, 2018

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/USA Today 2020 Democratic Nomination Survey

Suffolk University/USA Today 2020 Democratic Nomination Poll

I’m going to read you a list of Democrats who may challenge Donald Trump in 2 years. For each, please tell me whether you would be excited to see this person run, it would make no difference, or whether you would prefer that person didn’t run. If you’ve never heard of the person, just let me know.

Excited / Shouldn't Run (Net)
  • Joe Biden 52.99% / 24.06% (+28.93)
  • Beto O'Rourke 29.87% / 13.36% (+16.51)
  • Kamala Harris 28.93% / 19.34% (+9.59)
  • Cory Booker 27.99% / 18.87% (+9.12)
  • Amy Klobuchar 14.78% / 12.89% (+1.89)
  • Bernie Sanders 35.85% / 40.72% (-4.87)
  • Elizabeth Warren 27.36% / 33.02 (-5.66)
  • Michael Bloomberg 19.81% / 31.92% (-12.11)
  • Hillary Clinton 15.25% / 70.28% (-55.03)
  • Someone entirely new 58.96% / 10.69% (+48.27)
Among Democrats
  • Joe Biden 62% / 19% (+43)
  • Beto O'Rourke 36% / 7% (+29)
  • Kamala Harris 39% / 12% (+27)
  • Cory Booker 36% / 12% (+24)
  • Elizabeth Warren 35% / 22% (+13)
  • Amy Klobuchar 20% / 11% (+9)
  • Bernie Sanders 37% / 39% (-2)
  • Michael Bloomberg 17% / 31% (-14)
  • Hillary Clinton 20% / 64% (-44)
  • Someone entirely new 55% / 14% (+41)
Among Independents
  • Joe Biden 43% / 30% (+13)
  • Beto O'Rourke 23% / 21% (+2)
  • Amy Klobuchar 8% / 15% (-7)
  • Bernie Sanders 35% / 43% (-8)
  • Cory Booker 19% / 27% (-8)
  • Michael Bloomberg 23% / 33% (-10)
  • Kamala Harris 17% / 28% (-11)
  • Elizabeth Warren 19% / 46% (-27)
  • Hillary Clinton 10% / 77% (-67)
  • Someone entirely new 64% / 7% (+57)
Among Men
  • Joe Biden 52% / 24% (+28)
  • Beto O'Rourke 28% / 17% (+11)
  • Kamala Harris 27% / 23% (+4)
  • Cory Booker 28% / 26% (+2)
  • Amy Klobuchar 13% / 14% (-1)
  • Bernie Sanders 34% / 41% (-7)
  • Michael Bloomberg 26% / 35% (-9)
  • Elizabeth Warren 26% / 42% (-16)
  • Hillary Clinton 12% / 73% (-61)
  • Someone entirely new 59% / 10% (+49)
Among Women
  • Joe Biden 54% / 24% (+30)
  • Beto O'Rourke 32% / 10% (+22)
  • Kamala Harris 31% / 16% (+15)
  • Cory Booker 28% / 13% (+15)
  • Elizabeth Warren 29% / 25% (+4)
  • Amy Klobuchar 16% / 12% (+4)
  • Bernie Sanders 37% / 41% (-4)
  • Michael Bloomberg 15% / 29% (-14
  • Hillary Clinton 18% / 68% (-50)
  • Someone entirely new 59% / 12% (+47) 
Never Heard Of
  • Amy Klobuchar 54.09%
  • Beto O'Rourke 35.22%
  • Kamala Harris 33.96%
  • Cory Booker 29.09%
  • Michael Bloomberg 17.61%
  • Elizabeth Warren 15.25%
  • Joe Biden 3.77%
  • Bernie Sanders 2.52%
  • Hillary Clinton 0.79%
Survey of 689 registered Democrats and Independents was conducted December 11-16, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Poll Watch: David Binder Research Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

David Binder Research Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll
  • Joe Biden 30% (37%)
  • Bernie Sanders 13% (12%)
  • Beto O'Rourke 11%
  • Amy Klobuchar 10% 
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% (16%)
  • Kamala Harris 7% (10%)
  • Cory Booker 6% (8%)
  • Sherrod Brown 3%
  • Michael Bloomberg 2%
  • John Kerry 2%
  • John Delaney 1% (1%)
  • Eric Garcetti 0% (0%)
  • Undecided 6% (9%)
Survey of 500 registered voters in Iowa who stated they were likely to participate in the Democratic presidential caucuses of 2020 was conducted December 10-11, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2018 are in parentheses.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa 2020 Democratic Caucus Poll
  • Joe Biden 32%
  • Bernie Sanders 19%
  • Beto O'Rourke 11% 
  • Elizabeth Warren 8%
  • Kamala Harris 5%
  • Cory Booker 4%
  • Michael Bloomberg 3%
  • Amy Klobuchar 3%
  • Sherrod Brown 1%
  • Julián Castro 1%
  • John Delaney 1%
  • John Hickenlooper 1%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 0%
  • Eric Holder 0%
  • Jay Inslee 0%
  • Tom Steyer 0%
  • Eric Swalwell 0%
  • Andrew Yang 0%
  • Steve Bullock 0%
  • Eric Garcetti 0%
  • None of these (vol.) 4%
  • Not sure 6%
Second Choice
  • Joe Biden 18%
  • Bernie Sanders 14%
  • Beto O'Rourke 12%
  • Elizabeth Warren 10%
  • Cory Booker 7%
  • Kamala Harris 6%
  • Michael Bloomberg 3%
  • Amy Klobuchar 2%
  • Sherrod Brown 2%
  • John Hickenlooper 1%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
  • Eric Holder 1%
  • Jay Inslee 1%
  • Tom Steyer 1%
  • Eric Swalwell 1%
  • Andrew Yang 1%
  • Julián Castro 0%
  • John Delaney 0%
  • Steve Bullock 0%
  • Eric Garcetti 0%
  • None of these (vol.) 3%
  • Not sure 6%
  • No first choice 10%
    Favorable/Unfavorable (Net)
    • Joe Biden 82% / 15% (+67)
    • Bernie Sanders 74% / 22% (+52)
    • Elizabeth Warren 64% / 20% (+44)
    • Beto O'Rourke 53% / 11% (+42)
    • Kamala Harris 49% / 10% (+39)
    • Cory Booker 49% / 12% (+37)
    • Amy Klobuchar 38% / 8% (+30)
    • Eric Holder 42% / 16% (+26)
    • Kirsten Gillibrand 35% / 10% (+25)
    • Julián Castro 27% / 10% (+17)
    • John Hickenlooper 24% / 9% (+15)
    • Sherrod Brown 23% / 8% (+15)
    • John Delaney 25% / 11% (+14)
    • Eric Swalwell 20% / 10% (+10)
    • Michael Bloomberg 40% / 31% (+9)
    • Steve Bullock 11% / 8% (+3)
    • Jay Inslee 11% / 8% (+3)
    • Eric Garcetti 13% / 11% (+2)
    • Tom Steyer 19% / 19% (0)
    • Hillary Clinton 47% / 49% (-2)
    • Andrew Yang 5% / 12% (-7%)
    Survey of 455 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses was conducted December 10-13, 2018 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

    Wednesday, October 31, 2018

    Poll Watch: Fox News Arizona 2018 Senatorial Survey

    Fox News Arizona 2018 Senate Poll
    • Martha McSally (R) 46% [45%] (44%)
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 46% [47%] (47%)
    Men
    • Martha McSally (R) 51% [49%] (51%)
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 43% [43%] (42%)
    Women
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 49% [50%] (53%)
    • Martha McSally (R) 42% [41%] (38%)
    White, College Degree
    • Martha McSally (R) 50% [48%] (43%)
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 45% [46%] (51%)
    White, No College Degree
    • Martha McSally (R) 50% [49%] (51%)
    • Kyrsten Sinema (D) 40% [43%] (38%)
    Survey of 643 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2018 by Braun Research. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2018 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-11, 2018 are in parentheses.

    Monday, October 29, 2018

    Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Texas 2018 Senatorial Survey

    Quinnipiac University Texas 2018 Senate Poll
    • Ted Cruz (R) 51% [54%] (54%) {49%} [50%] (47%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 46% [45%] (45%) {43%} [39%] (44%)
    Men
    • Ted Cruz (R) 56% [62%] (57%) {56%} [57%] (51%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 39% [37%] (42%) {36%} [35%] (40%)
    Women
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 52% [52%] (48%) {49%} [42%] (47%)
    • Ted Cruz (R) 45% [46%] (50%) {43%} [44%] (43%)
    White, College Degree
    • Ted Cruz (R) 62% [60%] (55%) {58%} [58%] (54%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 36% [40%] (42%) {35%} [35%] (39%)
    White, No College Degree
    • Ted Cruz (R) 73% [80%] (78%) {65%} [64%] (64%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 24% [19%] (21%) {26%} [21%] (29%)
    Hispanic
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 60% [61%] (54%) {52%} [44%] (51%)
    • Ted Cruz (R) 36% [37%] (45%) {40%} [46%] (33%)
    Survey of 1,078 likely voters was conducted October 22-28, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 3-9, 2018 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-17, 2018 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 26-31, 2018 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 23-29, 2018 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 12-17, 2018 are in parentheses.

    Thursday, October 11, 2018

    Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Texas 2018 Senatorial Survey

    Quinnipiac University Texas 2018 Senate Poll
    • Ted Cruz (R) 54% (54%) {49%} [50%] (47%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 45% (45%) {43%} [39%] (44%)
    Men
    • Ted Cruz (R) 62% (57%) {56%} [57%] (51%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 37% (42%) {36%} [35%] (40%)
    Women
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 52% (48%) {49%} [42%] (47%)
    • Ted Cruz (R) 46% (50%) {43%} [44%] (43%)
    White, College Degree
    • Ted Cruz (R) 60% (55%) {58%} [58%] (54%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 40% (42%) {35%} [35%] (39%)
    White, No College Degree
    • Ted Cruz (R) 80% (78%) {65%} [64%] (64%)
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 19% (21%) {26%} [21%] (29%)
    Hispanic
    • Beto O'Rourke (D) 61% (54%) {52%} [44%] (51%)
    • Ted Cruz (R) 37% (45%) {40%} [46%] (33%)
    Favorable/Unfavorable (Net)
    • Ted Cruz 52% (52%) {50%} [49%] (46%) / 44% (43%) {42%} [38%] (44%) (+8)
    • Beto O'Rourke 45% (43%) {33%} [30%] (30%) / 47% (42%) {23%} [19%] (16%) (-2)
    Men
    • Ted Cruz 59% (55%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 36% (42%) {37%} [35%] (41%) (+23)
    • Beto O'Rourke 37% (41%) {31%) [29%] (28%) / 53% (46%) {29%} [24%] (24%) (-16)
    Women
    • Beto O'Rourke 53% (45%) {35%} [31%] (31%) / 40% (38%) {17%} [14%] (10%) (+13)
    • Ted Cruz 46% (49%) {46%} [42%] (41%) / 52% (45%) {46%} [42%] (47%) (-6)
    White, College Degree
    • Ted Cruz 57% (54%) {55%} [56%] (52%) / 42% (44%) {40%} [39%] (44%) (+15)
    • Beto O'Rourke 41% (42%) {33%} [29%] (31%) / 53% (47%) {33%} [23%] (23%) (-12)
    White, No College Degree
    • Ted Cruz 75% (75%) {63%} [64%] (61%) / 22% (23%) {29%} [24%] (30%) (+53)
    • Beto O'Rourke 24% (24%) {22%} [20%] (20%) / 69% (57%) {33%} [23%] (19%) (-45)
    Hispanic
    • Beto O'Rourke 58% (48%) {40%} [39%] (31%) / 33% (35%) {8%} [15%] (12%) (+25)
    • Ted Cruz 40% (44%) {45%} [45%] (35%) / 56% (44%) {43%} [35%] (42%) (-16)
    Survey of 730 very likely voters was conducted October 3-9, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 11-17, 2018 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 26-31, 2018 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 23-29, 2018 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 12-17, 2018 are in parentheses.