Friday, October 31, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Rand Paul (R) 47% [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [42%] (45%)
  • Unsure 8% [10%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 47% [48%] (44%)
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34% [32%] (35%)
  • Unsure 20% [20%] (21%)
Survey of 1,006 likely voters was conducted October 29-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [39%] (39%) Democrat; 34% [34%] (34%) Republican; 27% [27%] (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Thom Tillis (R) 47% [48%] (41%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 46% [43%] (44%)
  • Unsure 8% [9%] (15%)
Survey of 1,006 likely voters was conducted October 29-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [39%] (39%) Democrat; 34% [34%] (34%) Republican; 27% [27%] (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll
  • Hillary Clinton 60%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17%
  • Joe Biden 4%
  • Andrew Cuomo 3%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
  • Martin O'Malley 1%
Online survey of 552 likely Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
  • Chris Christie (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%

  • Paul Ryan (R) 45%
  • Joe Biden (D) 32%
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 30%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Joe Biden (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40%
  • Joe Biden (D) 33%

  • Paul Ryan (R) 41%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 27%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 24%
  • Rand Paul (R) 37%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%
Online survey of 1,129 likely voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Republican; 32% Democrat; 34% Independent.

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll
  • Hillary Clinton 62%
  • Elizabeth Warren 14%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Martin O'Malley 2%
  • Andrew Cuomo 2%
  • Other (vol.) 1%
  • None of the above (vol.) 2%
  • Don't know (vol.) 6%
Survey of 352 likely Democratic voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Fox News Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Ben Carson 12%
  • Paul Ryan 9%
  • Jeb Bush 8%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Other (vol.) 1%
  • None of the above (vol.) 4%
  • Don't know (vol.) 10%
Survey of 329 likely Republican voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Kay Hagan (D) 43% (41%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 42% (36%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (6%)
Among Men
  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% (44%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 39% (35%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 5% (6%)
Among Women
  • Kay Hagan (D) 47% (46%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 39% (30%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (6%)
Survey of 909 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (40%) Democrat; 37% (35%) Republican; 24% (19%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 45% (41%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 44% (41%)
  • Another candidate 4% (6%)
  • Don't know 7% (12%)
Among Men
  • Joni Ernst (R) 52% (45%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 37% (37%)
  • Another candidate 3% (6%)
  • Don't know 8% (11%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 51% (44%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 38% (36%)
  • Another candidate 4% (7%)
  • Don't know 6% (14%)
Survey of 911 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (36%) Democrat; 36% (34%) Republican; 24% (25%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Kansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News Kansas 2014 Senate Poll
  • Greg Orman (I) 44% [39%] (48%)
  • Pat Roberts (R) 43% [44%] (42%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 3% [3%]
Among Men
  • Pat Roberts (R) 47% [50%] (42%) 
  • Greg Orman (I) 42% [37%] (49%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 3% [2%]
Among Women
  • Greg Orman (I) 46% [40%] (46%)
  • Pat Roberts (R) 39% [38%] (41%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 2% [4%]
Survey of 907 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 47% [47%] (49%) Republican; 30% [ 28%] (28%) Democrat; 22% [22%] (20%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 4-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CNN/ORC North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Kay Hagan (D) 48% (46%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% (43%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (7%)
Among Men
  • Thom Tillis (R) 53% (46%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 41% (42%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (8%)
Among Women
  • Kay Hagan (D) 55% (49%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 39% (40%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (5%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Kay Hagan 49% (46%) / 48% (47%) {+1%}
  • Thom Tillis 43% (47%) / 50% (40%) {-7%}
Survey of 559 likely voters was conducted October 27-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (34%) Democrat; 32% (30%) Republican; 30% (36%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 49% (48%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 47% (49%)
Among Independents
  • Joni Ernst (R) 50% (49%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 42% (46%)
Among Moderates
  • Bruce Braley (D) 66% (60%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 29% (37%)
Among Men
  • Joni Ernst (R) 55% (56%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 40% (41%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 54% (57%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 42% (41%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Joni Ernst 49% (47%) / 47% (47%) {+2%}
  • Bruce Braley 49% (48%) / 47% (43%) {+2%}
Survey of 647 likely voters was conducted October 27-30, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 31% Republican; 37% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52% [48%] (50%) 
  • Scott Brown (R) 45% [42%] (41%)
  • Some other candidate 1% [5%] (4%)
  • Undecided 2% [5%] (5%)
Survey of 940 likely voters was conducted October 29-30, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 12-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 48% [48%] (43%) {43%} [45%] (37%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 47% [45%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (40%)
Survey of 990 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 11-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Dan Sullivan (R) 47% (48%) {48%} [47%] (44%)
  • Mark Begich (D) 42% (45%) {43%} [45%] (44%
Survey of 887 likely voters was conducted October 27-30, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-12, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 45%
  • Bruce Braley (D) 45%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Joni Ernst 50% / 50% {0%}
  • Bruce Braley 48% / 52% {-4%}
Online survey of 1,129 likely voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Republican; 32% Democrat; 34% Independent.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Poll Watch: Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Nathan Deal (R) 47.5% (47.7%) {44.5%} [43.7%] (40%) {40.0%} [41%] (43%
  • Jason Carter (D) 46.1% (45.2%) {44.8%} [46.8%] (44%) {46.6%} [49%] (39%)
  • Andrew Hunt (L) 3.5% (4.9%) {5.4%} [4.3%] {4.5%} [4%]
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted October 29, 2014 for Channel 2 Action News. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Gender: 55% Female; 45% Male. Race: 64.4% White; 29.3% Black; 6.3% Other. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Poll
  • David Perdue (R) 47.4% (47.3%) {46.0%} [43.4%] (40%) {43.0%} [42%] (37.5%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46.6% (47.4%) {45.7%} [46.0%] (47%) {46.6%} [48%] (33.0%) 
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 2.7% (3.3%) {3.9%} [6.4%] (3%) {3.8%}
Among Men
  • David Perdue (R) 55.4% (51.7%) {51.3%}
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 38.8% (41.6%) {39.3%}
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3.0% (4.1%) {4.6%}
Among Women
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 53.1% (52.5%) {51.2%}
  • David Perdue (R) 40.8% (43.4%) {41.4%}
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 2.5% (2.6%) {3.3%}
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted October 29, 2014 for Channel 2 Action News. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Gender: 55% Female; 45% Male. Race: 64.4% White; 29.3% Black; 6.3% Other. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 25, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Asa Hutchinson (R) 50% [49%] (46%) {44%} [48%] (41%) 
  • Mike Ross (D) 43% [47%] (42%) {46%} [41%] (44%)
Survey of 967 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Kay Hagan (D) 47% [48%] (45%) {40%} [44%] (40%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% [46%] (39%) {45%} [45%] (47%) 
  • Some other candidate 3% [2%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
  • Undecided 3% [4%] (9%) {9%} [7%] (10%)
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Kay Hagan?
  • Very favorable 27% [29%]
  • Somewhat favorable 22% [21%]
  • Somewhat unfavorable 13% [14%]
  • Very unfavorable 36% [32%]
Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Thom Tillis?
  • Very favorable 22% [22%]
  • Somewhat favorable 24% [25%]
  • Somewhat unfavorable 12% [14%]
  • Very unfavorable 37% [33%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Kay Hagan 49% [50%] / 49% [46%] {0%}
  • Thom Tillis 46% [47%] / 49% [47%] {-3%}
Survey of 982 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 5-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2014 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
North Carolina has early voting, and 30% of the voters in the state say they already have cast their ballot. Among these voters, Hagan leads 50% to 44%.
Eighty-three percent (83%) of Tar Heel voters say they have made up their minds how they are going to vote, and the candidates are tied at 49% apiece among these voters.
Ninety percent (90%) of all voters in the state say they are definitely going to vote in this contest. Tillis is ahead 48% to 46% among this group.
Tillis has the support of 80% of Republicans in North Carolina and leads by 10 points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of the state’s Democrats support Hagan.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {44%} [44%] (46%) {41%} [42%]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [46%] (42%) {39%} [43%]
  • David Patterson (L) 3% {5%} [3%] (5%) {7%} [4%]
  • Undecided 6% {8%} [7%] (8%) {13%} [7%]
Among Men
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [45%] (48%) {43%} [42%]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%}  [44%] (38%) {39%} [41%]
  • David Patterson (L) 4% {5%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%]
  • Undecided 5% {8%} [7%] (8%) {11%} [6%]
Among Women
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 47% {44%} [44%] (44%) {39%} [41%]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [47%] (45%) {39%} [45%]
  • David Patterson (L) 2% {6%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [3%]
  • Undecided 8% {7%} [7%] (7%) {15%} [9%]
Survey of 597 likely voters was conducted October 25-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 15-19, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Charlie Crist (D) 36% [40%] (35.74%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 36% [40%] (40.93%)
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 6% [6%] (6.32%)
Survey of 850 likely voters was conducted October 24-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 7-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 - February 1, 2014 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
An unusually high 13 percent refused to say whom they support and 7 percent were undecided. Exclude those who would not answer about the governor’s race, and the numbers shift to 42 percent support for Crist, 41 percent for Scott, and 7 percent for Wyllie — still a dead heat.

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50% [47%] (46%) {52%} [45%] (47%) 
  • Scott Brown (R) 42% [41%] (44%) {40%} [39%] (37%)
Survey of 555 likely voters was conducted October 22-26, 2014The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 7-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 19 - July 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Suffolk University Massachusetts 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Boston Herald/Suffolk University Massachusetts 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Charlie Baker (R) 46.0% {43.2%} [28.50%] (30.83%)
  • Martha Coakley (D) 42.6% {43.8%} [36.13%] (44.17%)
  • Evan Falchuk (UI) 2.6% {2.0%} [0.75%] (0.83%)
  • Jeffrey McCormick (I) 1.8% {1.6%} [1.63%] (2.17%)
  • Scott Douglas Lively (I) 0.6% {0.4%} [1.25%] (1.33%)
  • Undecided 5.8% {8.4%} [26.63%] (19.33%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Charlie Baker 49.0% {44.6%} [32.88%] (35.33%)  / 26.2% {27.0%} [20.25%] (14.00%) {+22.8%}
  • Martha Coakley 46.2% {46.4%} [53.38%] (53.67%) / 44.2% {41.8%} [26.75%] (28.67%) {+2.0%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 29 - February 3, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bangor Daily News/Ipsos Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Bangor Daily News/Ipsos Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Paul LePage (R) 42% {36%}
  • Mike Michaud (D) 42% {42%}
  • Eliot Cutler (I) 13% {16%}
If the election for Governor of Maine were held today and Eliot Cutler (Independent) was not on the ballot, for whom would you vote?
  • Mike Michaud (D) 48% {50%}
  • Paul LePage (R) 46% {41%}
Online survey of 488 likely voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 6-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Vox Populi Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Vox Populi Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Thom Tillis (R) 48%
  • Kay Hagan (D) 43%
  • Undecided 9%
Survey of 615 active voters was conducted October 26-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.95 percentage points. Party ID: 39% Democrat; 36% Republican; 25% Independent/Something else.

Poll Watch: American Research Group New Hampshire 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

ARG New Hampshire 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Maggie Hassan (D) 48% {53%} [55%] (51%) {45%} 
  • Walt Havenstein (R) 46% {43%} [40%] (39%) {32%}
Among Men
  • Walt Havenstein (R) 50%
  • Maggie Hassan (D) 45% 
Among Women
  • Maggie Hassan (D) 52% 
  • Walt Havenstein (R) 42%
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% {34%} [35%] Republican; 30% {31%} [32%] Democrat; 34% {35%} [33%] Undeclared. Results from the poll conducted October 19-22, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12-15, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-18, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Elon University North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Elon University North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Kay Hagan (D) 44.7% (44.9%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 40.7% (40.8%)
  • Someone else 6.3% (9.1%)
  • Don't know 6.6% (4.6%)
Among Men
  • Thom Tillis (R) 48% (50%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 38% (38%)
Among Women
  • Kay Hagan (D) 52% (52%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 34% (33%)
Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted October 21-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.74 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 5-9, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll
  • Kay Hagan (D) 47% (46%) [44%] {42%} (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% (43%) [40%] {38%} (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%} 
  • Sean Haugh (L) 4% (5%) [5%] {8%} (8%) [11%] {11%}
Among Men
  • Thom Tillis (R) 53% (49%) [48%] {44%} (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
  • Kay Hagan (D) 39% (42%) [38%] {38%} (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 6% (6%) [6%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {12%}
Among Women
  • Kay Hagan (D) 54% (49%) [49%] {45%} (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 40% (37%) [33%] {32%} (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {37%} 
  • Sean Haugh (L) 3% (5%) [4%] {7%} (8%) [12%] {10%} 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Kay Hagan 46% / 49% {-3%}
  • Thom Tillis 42% (37%) [34%] {28%} (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 50% (49%) [48%] {48%} (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-12%}
Survey of 657 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014 for The League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 46% (44%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 34% (37%) [34%] {31%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 19% (19%) [21%] {27%} (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado 2014 Senate Poll
  • Cory Gardner (R) 46% [46%] (42%)
  • Mark Udall (D) 44% [42%] (46%)
  • Other 5% [7%] (5%)
  • Undecided 5% [5%] (7%) 
Survey of likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Bob Beauprez (R) 47% {46%} [43%] (41%) {38%}
  • John Hickenlooper (D) 47% {46%} [44%] (48%) {48%}
Survey of 573 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014 for The League of Conservation Voters. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-16, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Gardner (R) 48% {47%} [47%] (43%) {43%} [45%] (40%)
  • Mark Udall (D) 48% {44%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (42%)
Among Independents
  • Mark Udall (D) 59% {39%} [44%] (38%) {43%} [43%] (30%) 
  • Cory Gardner (R) 38% {46%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [43%] (38%)
Among Men
  • Cory Gardner (R) 54% {51%} [54%] (53%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
  • Mark Udall (D) 43% {40%} [38%] (38%) {43%} [44%] (42%)
Among Women
  • Mark Udall (D) 53% {48%} [51%] (49%) {51%} [49%] (43%)
  • Cory Gardner (R) 42% {43%} [41%] (35%) {39%} [40%] (36%)
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cory Gardner?  
  • Favorable 49% {45%} (34%) {35%} (23%)
  • Unfavorable 45% {42%} (39%) {42%} (25%)
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Udall?
  • Favorable 42%
  • Unfavorable 49%
Survey of 573 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014 for The League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 38% {37%} [33%] (34%) {31%} [32%] (34%) Republican; 37% {35%} [34%] (35%) {36%} [36%] (33%) Democrat; 25% {29%} [34%] (31%) {33%} [32%] (33%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll
  • Tom Cotton (R) 51% [47%] (47%) {43%} [47%] (45%)
  • Mark Pryor (D) 44% [44%] (40%) {44%} [43%] (40%)
Survey of 967 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: American Research Group New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

ARG New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll
  • Scott Brown (R) 49% {48%} [43%] (45%)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49% {49%} [53%] (50%)
  • Undecided 2% {3%} [4%] (5%)
Among Men
  • Scott Brown (R) 54% {52%} [49%]
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 43% {45%} [46%]
  • Undecided 3% {3%} [5%]
Among Women
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 54% {53%} [59%] 
  • Scott Brown (R) 43% {44%} [38%]
  • Undecided 3% {3%} [3%]
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% {34%} [35%] Republican; 30% {31%} [32%] Democrat; 34% {35%} [33%] Undeclared. Results from the poll conducted October 19-22, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12-15, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Gardner (R) 46% (46%) {47%} [48%] (44%) {44%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 39% (41%) {41%} [40%] (42%) {45%} 
  • Steve Shogan (I) 7% (6%) {8%} [8%] 
Among Independents
  • Cory Gardner (R) 37% (42%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 35% (40%) {39%} [40%] (43%) {41%} 
  • Steve Shogan (I) 19% (9%) {13%} [15%]  
Among Men
  • Cory Gardner (R) 54% (51%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {53%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 33% (38%) {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%}
  • Steve Shogan (I) 6% (6%) {9%} [9%]  
Among Women
  • Mark Udall (D) 45% (45%) {49%} [46%] (49%) {52%} 
  • Cory Gardner (R) 39% (41%) {40%} [43%] (40%) {35%}
  • Steve Shogan (I) 8% (5%) {7%} [7%]  
Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?
  • Cory Gardner (R) 49% (48%) {49%} [52%]
  • Mark Udall (D) 41% (44%) {44%} [42%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Cory Gardner 48% (49%) {47%} [47%] (34%) {30%} / 40% (42%) {41%} [37%] (31%) {18%} {+8%}
  • Mark Udall 43% (44%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%} / 50% (49%) {49%} [50%] (43%) {38%} {-7%
Among Independents
  • Cory Gardner 42% (48%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {29%} / 42% (41%) {41%} [40%] (33%) {17%} {0%}
  • Mark Udall 38% (46%) {44%} [40%] (39%) {43%} / 53% (47%) {48%} [53%] (44%) {36%} {-15%
Among Men
  • Cory Gardner 58% (55%) {52%} [55%] (39%) {40%} / 32% (39%) {35%} [32%] (26%) {16%} {+26%}
  • Mark Udall 36% (39%) {35%} [37%] (32%) {37%} / 57% (56%) {56%} [57%] (48%) {47%} {-21%}
Among Women
  • Mark Udall 49% (50%) {49%} [47%] (46%) {49%} / 44% (42%) {42%} [43%] (38%) {31%} {+5%}
  • Cory Gardner 40% (43%) {42%} [40%] (30%) {21%} / 48% (44%) {47%} [42%] (35%) {21%} {-8%}
Survey of 844 likely voters was conducted October 22-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (32%) {33%} [34%] (29%) {26%} Republican; 27% (29%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 34% (32%) {32%} [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 7% (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted October 15-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
  • Charlie Crist (D) 43% [42%] (42%) {39%}
  • Rick Scott (R) 40% [42%] (44%) {37%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 8% [7%] (8%) {9%}
Among Democrats
  • Charlie Crist (D) 83% [86%] (83%) {73%}
  • Rick Scott (R) 7% [5%] (7%) {9%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 3% [3%] (6%) {6%}
Among Republicans
  • Rick Scott (R) 81% [81%] (80%) {74%}
  • Charlie Crist (D) 8% [7%] (11%) {9%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 4% [6%] (7%) {5%}
Among Independents
  • Charlie Crist (D) 47% [41%] (37%) {36%}
  • Rick Scott (R) 29% [38%] (44%) {34%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 16% [11%] (11%) {12%}
Among Men
  • Rick Scott (R) 47% [46%] (48%) {45%}
  • Charlie Crist (D) 37% [38%] (40%) {32%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 9% [10%] (8%) {9%}
Among Women
  • Charlie Crist (D) 49% [45%] (43%) {45%}
  • Rick Scott (R) 35% [39%] (41%) {30%}
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 6% [6%] (8%) {8%}
Recalculated match-up, asking Wyllie voters: Who is your second choice?
  • Charlie Crist (D) 45% [44%] (44%) {45%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (50%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 42% [44%] (46%) {40%} [38%] (38%) {40%} [37%] (34%)
Among Democrats
  • Charlie Crist (D) 84% [87%] (86%) {78%} [82%] (81%) {86%} [83%] (81%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 8% [6%] (8%) {10%} [9%] (6%) {4%} [8%] (7%)
Among Republicans
  • Rick Scott (R) 83% [85%] (81%) {79%} [79%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (76%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 9% [8%] (14%) {12%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [13%] (16%)
Among Independents
  • Charlie Crist (D) 53% [46%] (39%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} [45%] (49%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 33% [40%] (47%) {38%} [34%] (32%) {41%} [33%] (29%)
Among Men
  • Rick Scott (R) 49% [48%] (50%) {48%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [43%] (39%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 39% [41%] (43%) {39%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (49%)  
Among Women
  • Charlie Crist (D) 51% [46%] (46%) {49%} [51%] (50%) {50%} [51%] (51%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 37% [40%] (43%) {34%} [33%] (34%) {34%} [32%] (29%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Charlie Crist 45% [42%] (41%) {40%} [43%] (44%) {41%} [48%] (49%) / 45% [47%] (49%) {42%} [36%] (35%) {39%} [31%] (30%) {0%}
  • Rick Scott 41% [40%] (42%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (33%) / 46% [48%] (48%) {45%} [46%] (45%) {42%} [42%] (46%) {-5%}
Survey of 817 likely voters was conducted October 22-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 33% [33%] (32%) {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 31% [30%] (30%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 27% [29%] (31%) {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% [7%] (7%) {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-20, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-22, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Georgia 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Georgia 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Nathan Deal (R) 49% (49%) {45%} [44%] (41%)
  • Jason Carter (D) 43% (43%) {44%} [45%] (48%) 
  • Some other candidate 2% (2%) {3%} [3%] (3%)
  • Undecided 6% (6%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
Survey of 977 likely voters was conducted October 25-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-24, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 21-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Poll
  • David Perdue (R) 46% (46%) {46%} [46%] (42%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46% (42%) {41%} [40%] (45%)
  • Some other candidate 3% (3%) {4%} [4%] (7%)
  • Undecided 5% (9%) {9%} [10%] (6%)
Survey of 977 likely voters was conducted October 25-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-24, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Rick Snyder (R) 45% (47%) {45%} [43%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (44%)
  • Mark Schauer (D) 43% (39%) {39%} [45%] (43%) {38%} [39%] (36%)
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 26-28, 2014 for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 17-19, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 25-29, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 22-25, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-11, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senate Poll
  • Gary Peters (D) 50% (45%) {42%} [45%] (45%) {44%} [38%] (38%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 35% (34%) {33%} [39%] (36%) {38%} [41%] (37%)
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 26-28, 2014 for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 17-19, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 25-29, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 22-25, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-11, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Poll
  • Scott Walker (R) 49.9% {47.0%} [50.5%] (49.4%) {46.5%} [46.3%] (47.9%) {48%} [47%] (47%) 
  • Mary Burke (D) 42.7% {47.0%} [44.7%] (45.8%) {48.6%} [46.8%] (45.2%) {41%} [41%] (45%) 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Scott Walker 51.4% {49.8%} [52.1%] (52.4%) / 46.5% {48.3%} [45.8%] (45.8%) {+4.9%}
  • Mary Burke 39.1% {43.7%} [39.6%] (40.9%) / 49.0% {44.3%} [44.2%] (39.2%) {-9.9%}
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
  • Approve 52.0% {49.8%} [51.5%] (51.5%)
  • Disapprove 45.6% {48.5%} [47.0%] (47.6%)
Survey of 1,164 likely voters was conducted October 23-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 21-24, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll
  • Mike Rounds (R) 45% [44%] (51%)
  • Rick Weiland (D) 31% [29%] (31%)
  • Larry Pressler (I) 21% [18%]
  • Undecided 3% [7%] (11%)
Survey of 908 likely voters was conducted October 22-26, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 25-26, 2014 are in parentheses.