Thursday, June 30, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senate Poll
  • Bill Nelson (D) 46% [48%]
  • George LeMieux (R) 35% [33%]
  • Bill Nelson (D) 47% [50%]
  • Mike Haridopolos (R) 35% [34%]
  • Bill Nelson (D) 47% [48%]
  • Adam Hasner (R) 35% [32%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Adam Hasner 4% [6%] / 18% [17%] {-14%}
  • Mike Haridopolos 7% [9%] / 22% [23%] {-15%}
  • George LeMieux 9% [8%] / 25% [22%] {-16%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson’s job performance?
  • Approve 38% [38%] {40%}
  • Disapprove 31% [34%] {35%}
Survey of 848 Florida voters was conducted June 16-19, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% [41%] {41%} Democrat; 36% [37%] {40%} Republican; 21% [22%] {19%} Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% [30%] Moderate; 23% [26%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [21%] Very conservative; 17% [16%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [7%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Fox News Political Survey

Fox News Political Survey

Would you favor or oppose a balanced budget amendment -- that is, an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would require the federal government to produce a balanced budget?
  • Favor 72%
  • Oppose 20%
Would you favor or oppose a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution if it meant major spending cuts to entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security?
  • Favor 31%
  • Oppose 63%
Among Democrats
  • Favor 17%
  • Oppose 79%
Among Republicans
  • Favor 47%
  • Oppose 46%
Among Independents
  • Favor 32%
  • Oppose 62%
Would you favor or oppose a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution if it meant major tax increases for every American?
  • Favor 34%
  • Oppose 62%
Barack Obama has been in office for over half of his term -- is that enough time to know whether his economic policies are working, or not?
  • Yes, it is 47%
  • No, it isn't 49%
Do you think the federal government’s 2009 economic stimulus plan has helped the economy, hurt the economy, or not made much of a difference either way?
  • Helped 29%
  • Hurt 23%
  • No difference 46%
Among Democrats
  • Helped 51%
  • Hurt 8%
  • No difference 37%
Among Republicans
  • Helped 5%
  • Hurt 41%
  • No difference 52%
Among Independents
  • Helped 21%
  • Hurt 20%
  • No difference 56%
Who do you agree with more on the national debt limit negotiations: Those who say the debt limit should only be raised if there are significant spending cuts but NO tax increases, OR Those who say the debt limit should only be raised if there are BOTH significant spending cuts AND tax increases.
  • Raised if significant spending cuts but NO tax increases 48%
  • Raised if BOTH significant spending cuts AND tax increases 41%
Among Democrats
  • Raised if significant spending cuts but NO tax increases 40%
  • Raised if BOTH significant spending cuts AND tax increases 49%
Among Republicans
  • Raised if significant spending cuts but NO tax increases 61%
  • Raised if BOTH significant spending cuts AND tax increases 31%
Among Independents
  • Raised if significant spending cuts but NO tax increases 41%
  • Raised if BOTH significant spending cuts AND tax increases 45%
Do you think the country is currently moving away from capitalism and more toward socialism, or not?
  • Yes, it is 47%
  • No, it isn't 43%
Among Democrats
  • Yes, it is 23%
  • No, it isn't 64%
Among Republicans
  • Yes, it is 75%
  • No, it isn't 20%
Among Independents
  • Yes, it is 49%
  • No, it isn't 39%
Which of the following do you think would do more to improve the economy and create jobs? For wealthier people and business owners to pay higher taxes to fund government services and programs that benefit those who are less well off, OR For the government to cut spending and reduce taxes on wealthier people and business owners in order to encourage investment in businesses.
  • Wealthy pay higher taxes to fund gov't services/programs 45%
  • Gov't cuts spending/reduce taxes on wealthy to encourage investment 45%
Among Democrats
  • Wealthy pay higher taxes to fund gov't services/programs 66%
  • Gov't cuts spending/reduce taxes on wealthy to encourage investment 25%
Among Republicans
  • Wealthy pay higher taxes to fund gov't services/programs 20%
  • Gov't cuts spending/reduce taxes on wealthy to encourage investment 72%
Among Independents
  • Wealthy pay higher taxes to fund gov't services/programs 46%
  • Gov't cuts spending/reduce taxes on wealthy to encourage investment 38%
Recently President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner went golfing together. Do you think these kinds of informal activities truly help Democratic and Republican leaders get along better during negotiations on tough issues, or do things like “golf summits” not make much of a difference?
  • Truly help 42%
  • Don't make a difference 54%
Barack Obama has gone golfing 34 times during the last 12 months -- is that too much time on the golf course for a president, or not?
  • Yes, it is 35%
  • No, it isn’t 59%
Recently NBC Sports edited out twice the words “under God” from the Pledge of Allegiance during television coverage of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Do you think it is okay to delete the words “under God” from the Pledge of Allegiance for a television segment, or is that completely unacceptable?
  • Okay 16%
  • Unacceptable 80%
Among Democrats
  • Okay 26%
  • Unacceptable 68%
Among Republicans
  • Okay 4%
  • Unacceptable 95%
Among Independents
  • Okay 15%
  • Unacceptable 81%
Survey of 912 registered voters was conducted June 26-28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Mexico 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Mexico 2012 GOP Primary Survey
  • Michele Bachmann 21%
  • Mitt Romney 18% [16%] (33%)
  • Gary Johnson 13% [13%]
  • Sarah Palin 11% [20%] (32%)
  • Herman Cain 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty 7% [6%]
  • Newt Gingrich 6% [13%]
  • Ron Paul 5% [4%]
  • Someone else/Undecided 9% [8%]
    Among Men
    • Michele Bachmann 25%
    • Gary Johnson 18% [14%]
    • Mitt Romney 14% [14%] (35%)
    • Herman Cain 11%
    • Sarah Palin 9% [18%] (33%)
    • Ron Paul 7% [6%]
    • Tim Pawlenty 6% [7%]
    • Newt Gingrich 5% [18%]
    • Someone else/Undecided 6% [6%]
    Among Women
    • Mitt Romney 23% [17%] (31%)
    • Michele Bachmann 17%
    • Sarah Palin 14% [21%] (31%)
    • Herman Cain 9%
    • Gary Johnson 8% [12%]
    • Newt Gingrich 7% [7%]
    • Tim Pawlenty 7% [5%]
    • Ron Paul 4% [3%]
    • Someone else/Undecided 12% [11%]
    If Sarah Palin didn’t run, and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?
    • Michele Bachmann 27%
    • Mitt Romney 23%
    • Herman Cain 12%
    • Ron Paul 8%
    • Tim Pawlenty 7%
    • Newt Gingrich 6%
    • Jon Huntsman 4%
    • Someone else/Not sure 13%
      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
      • Sarah Palin 62% [69%] / 27% [25%] {+35%}
      • Herman Cain 47% / 14% {+33%}
      • Michele Bachmann 50% / 24% {+26%}
      • Mitt Romney 50% [56%] / 31% [29%] {+19%}
      • Tim Pawlenty 37% / 21% {+16%}
      • Gary Johnson 47% [46%] / 40% [33%] {+7%}
        Among Men
        • Sarah Palin 67% [73%] / 26% [21%] {+41%}
        • Herman Cain 52% / 17% {+35%}
        • Michele Bachmann 58% / 24% {+34%}
        • Mitt Romney 50% [59%] / 35% [26%] {+15%}
        • Tim Pawlenty 38% / 26% {+12%}
        • Gary Johnson 50% [48%] / 41% [31%] {+9%}
        Among Women
        • Herman Cain 41% / 11% {+30%}
        • Sarah Palin 56% [65%] / 28% [31%] {+28%}
        • Mitt Romney 50% [53%] / 27% [33%] {+23%}
        • Tim Pawlenty 35% / 16% {+19%}
        • Michele Bachmann 41% / 23% {+18%}
        • Gary Johnson 43% [44%] / 40% [36%] {+3%}
        Survey of 400 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters was conducted June 23-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 43% Very conservative; 36% Somewhat conservative; 14% Moderate; 6% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2010 are in parentheses.

        Mitt Romney 2012 Ad: "Obama Isn't Working: Allentown, PA"

        Mark Halperin: President Obama 'Kind of a Dick'

        Bill Clinton on Good Morning America

        Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2012 Political Survey

        Quinnipiac Virginia 2012 Political Survey

        If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican for whom would you vote?
        • Tim Kaine 43%
        • George Allen 42%
        Among Independents
        • George Allen 46%
        • Tim Kaine 38%
        Among Men
        • George Allen 47%
        • Tim Kaine 40%
        Among Women
        • Tim Kaine 45%
        • George Allen 37%
        Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
        • Approve 57%
        • Disapprove 29%
        Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jim Webb is handling his job as United States Senator?
        • Approve 50%
        • Disapprove 31%
        Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
        • Approve 48%
        • Disapprove 48%
        Among Independents
        • Approve 41%
        • Disapprove 54%
        Among Men
        • Approve 42%
        • Disapprove 54%
        Among Women
        • Approve 54%
        • Disapprove 41%
        Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
        • Obama 43%
        • Republican 41%
        • Depends on candidate (vol.) 10%
        Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
        • Yes/Deserves 47%
        • No/Does not 47%
        Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
        • Doing the right thing 38%
        • Should not be involved 55%
        Among Democrats
        • Doing the right thing 29%
        • Should not be involved 64%
        Among Republicans
        • Doing the right thing 54%
        • Should not be involved 42%
        Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now?
        • Doing the right thing 31%
        • Should not be involved 60%
        Among Democrats
        • Doing the right thing 38%
        • Should not be involved 51%
        Among Republicans
        • Doing the right thing 30%
        • Should not be involved 63%
        Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
        • Repeal it 49%
        • Let it stand 42%
        Among Democrats
        • Repeal it 16%
        • Let it stand 76%
        Among Republicans
        • Repeal it 81%
        • Let it stand 9%
        Among Independents
        • Repeal it 53%
        • Let it stand 39%
        Survey of 1,434 registered voters was conducted June 21 - 27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.

        Wednesday, June 29, 2011

        Poll Watch: Fox News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

        Fox News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
        • Mitt Romney 18% {23%} [19%] (14%)
        • Rick Perry 13%
        • Michele Bachmann 11% {4%} [3%] (2%)
        • Rudy Giuliani 10% {13%} (9%)
        • Sarah Palin 8% {12%} [9%] (12%)
        • Ron Paul 7% {5%} [7%] (3%)
        • Herman Cain 5% {7%} [4%] (2%)
        • Tim Pawlenty 3% {5%} [3%] (4%)
        • Newt Gingrich 3% {7%} [7%] (7%)
        • Jon Huntsman 3% {2%} [1%] (1%)
        • Rick Santorum 2% {4%} [3%] (2%)
        • Gary Johnson 1% {0%} [1%] (1%)
        • Buddy Roemer 0% {1%} [0%]
        • Fred Karger 0% {0%} [1%]
        • Thaddeus McCotter 0%
        • Roy Moore 0% {0%} [1%]
        • Too soon to say 6% {5%} [9%] (5%)
        • Don't know 4% {7%} [4%] (8%)
        Second Choice
        • Mitt Romney 18%
        • Michele Bachmann 17%
        • Sarah Palin 10%
        • Rudy Giuliani 9%
        • Newt Gingrich 6%
        • Herman Cain 6%
        • Rick Perry 5%
        • Ron Paul 4%
        • Tim Pawlenty 2%
        • Jon Huntsman 2%
        • Rick Santorum 2% 
        • Roy Moore 1%
        • Gary Johnson 0%
        • Buddy Roemer 0% 
        • Fred Karger 0%
        • Thaddeus McCotter 0%
        • Too soon to say 0%
        • Don't know 13%
        First and Second Choice Combined
        • Mitt Romney 36%
        • Michele Bachmann 28%
        • Rudy Giuliani 19%
        • Rick Perry 18%
        • Sarah Palin 18%
        • Ron Paul 11%
        • Herman Cain 11%
        • Newt Gingrich 9%
        • Tim Pawlenty 5%
        • Jon Huntsman 5%
        • Rick Santorum 4% 
        • Roy Moore 1%
        • Gary Johnson 0%
        • Buddy Roemer 0% 
        • Fred Karger 0%
        • Thaddeus McCotter 0%
        If Sarah Palin doesn't run
        • Mitt Romney 20%
        • Rick Perry 14%
        • Michele Bachmann 12%
        • Rudy Giuliani 11%
        • Ron Paul 7%
        • Herman Cain 5%
        • Newt Gingrich 3%
        • Tim Pawlenty 3%
        • Jon Huntsman 3%
        • Rick Santorum 2%
        • Gary Johnson 1%
        • Fred Karger 0%
        • Thaddeus McCotter 0%
        • Roy Moore 0%
        • Buddy Roemer 0%
        • Too soon to say 6%
        • Don't know 6%
        If Rudy Giuliani doesn't run
        • Mitt Romney 22%
        • Rick Perry 14%
        • Michele Bachmann 13%
        • Sarah Palin 9%
        • Ron Paul 7%
        • Herman Cain 5%
        • Newt Gingrich 4%
        • Tim Pawlenty 3%
        • Jon Huntsman 3%
        • Rick Santorum 3%
        • Gary Johnson 1%
        • Roy Moore 1%
        • Fred Karger 0%
        • Thaddeus McCotter 0%
        • Buddy Roemer 0%
        • Too soon to say 6%
        • Don't know 5%
          Survey of 324 Republican primary voters, was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) June 26-28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 5-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.

          Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Mexico 2012 Presidential Survey

          PPP (D) New Mexico 2012 Presidential Survey
          • Barack Obama 46% (51%)
          • Gary Johnson 43% (36%)
          • Barack Obama 49% (53%)
          • Mitt Romney 42% (37%)
          • Barack Obama 52%
          • Michele Bachmann 37%
          • Barack Obama 51%
          • Tim Pawlenty 36%
          • Barack Obama 52%
          • Herman Cain 36%
          • Barack Obama 56% (62%)
          • Sarah Palin 36% (33%)
          Among Independents
          • Gary Johnson 46% (28%)
          • Barack Obama 37% (53%)
          • Barack Obama 52%
          • Michele Bachmann 36%
          • Barack Obama 51% (56%)
          • Mitt Romney 35% (29%)
          • Barack Obama 51%
          • Tim Pawlenty 31%
          • Barack Obama 53%
          • Herman Cain 32%
          • Barack Obama 56% (73%)
          • Sarah Palin 30% (22%)
            Among Men
            • Gary Johnson 50% (42%)
            • Barack Obama 40% (47%)
            • Barack Obama 46% (50%)
            • Mitt Romney 44% (39%)
            • Barack Obama 49%
            • Michele Bachmann 42%
            • Barack Obama 48%
            • Tim Pawlenty 41%
            • Barack Obama 49%
            • Herman Cain 41%
            • Barack Obama 53% (59%)
            • Sarah Palin 41% (37%)
            Among Women
            • Barack Obama 51% (55%)
            • Mitt Romney 40% (35%)
            • Barack Obama 51% (54%)
            • Gary Johnson 38% (31%)
            • Barack Obama 53%
            • Tim Pawlenty 31%
            • Barack Obama 55%
            • Michele Bachmann 33%
            • Barack Obama 54%
            • Herman Cain 31%
            • Barack Obama 59% (65%)
            • Sarah Palin 32% (30%)
            Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
            • Gary Johnson 43% (44%) / 40% (32%) {+3%}
            • Herman Cain 24% / 27% {-3%}
            • Michele Bachmann 30% / 42% {-12%}
            • Mitt Romney 33% (33%) / 46% (45%) {-13%}
            • Tim Pawlenty 20% / 35% {-15%}
            • Sarah Palin 31% (31%) / 61% (64%) {-30%}
            Among Independents
            • Gary Johnson 51% (46%) / 29% (25%) {+22%}
            • Herman Cain 21% / 28% {-7%}
            • Mitt Romney 32% (29%) / 52% (50%) {-20%}
            • Tim Pawlenty 17% / 37% {-20%}
            • Michele Bachmann 23% / 46% {-23%}
            • Sarah Palin 30% (28%) / 65% (67%) {-35%}
            Among Republicans
            • Herman Cain 45% / 16% {+29%}
            • Sarah Palin 60% (66%) / 33% (27%) {+27%}
            • Michele Bachmann 48% / 25% {+23%}
            • Mitt Romney 50% (54%) / 32% (27%) {+18%}
            • Tim Pawlenty 36% / 19% {+17%}
            • Gary Johnson 51% (43%) / 38% (27%) {+13%}
              Among Moderates
              • Gary Johnson 47% (43%) / 33% (31%) {+14%}
              • Mitt Romney 32% (33%) / 44% (44%) {-12%}
              • Herman Cain 16% / 29% {-13%}
              • Tim Pawlenty 13% / 38% {-25%}
              • Michele Bachmann 17% / 51% {-34%}
              • Sarah Palin 18% (18%) / 71% (78%) {-53%}
                Among Men
                • Gary Johnson 49% (47%) / 36% (32%) {+13%}
                • Herman Cain 29% / 29% {0%}
                • Michele Bachmann 35% / 42% {-7%}
                • Mitt Romney 35% (36%) / 46% (45%) {-11%}
                • Tim Pawlenty 23% / 39% {-16%}
                • Sarah Palin 37% (33%) / 57% (62%) {-20%}
                Among Women
                • Herman Cain 20% / 25% {-5%}
                • Gary Johnson 37% (41%) / 43% (33%) {-6%}
                • Michele Bachmann 27% / 41% {-14%}
                • Tim Pawlenty 18% / 33% {-15%}
                • Mitt Romney 31% (31%) / 47% (45%) {-16%}
                • Sarah Palin 27% (29%) / 65% (66%) {-38%}
                Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                • Approve 50% (55%)
                • Disapprove 44% (40%)
                  Survey of 732 New Mexico voters was conducted June 23-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 51% (55%) Democrat; 32% (29%) Republican; 17% (16%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Moderate; 20% Somewhat liberal; 19% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 13% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-6, 2011 are in parentheses.

                  Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Presidential Survey

                  PPP (D) Texas 2012 Presidential Survey
                  • Mitt Romney 50% (49%)
                  • Barack Obama 42% (42%)
                  • Ron Paul 45%
                  • Barack Obama 40%
                  • Michele Bachmann 47%
                  • Barack Obama 44%
                  • Tim Pawlenty 44%
                  • Barack Obama 43%
                  • Herman Cain 43%
                  • Barack Obama 43%
                  • Barack Obama 46% (46%)
                  • Sarah Palin 44% (47%)
                  • Barack Obama 47% (45%)
                  • Rick Perry 45% (45%)
                  Among Independents
                  • Barack Obama 45%
                  • Ron Paul 38%
                    • Barack Obama 47% (43%)
                    • Mitt Romney 33% (41%)
                    • Barack Obama 51%
                    • Tim Pawlenty 27%
                    • Barack Obama 51%
                    • Herman Cain 26%
                    • Barack Obama 54%
                    • Michele Bachmann 28%
                    • Barack Obama 55% (54%)
                    • Sarah Palin 27% (37%)
                    • Barack Obama 59% (50%)
                    • Rick Perry 27% (31%)
                        Among Men
                        • Ron Paul  51%
                        • Barack Obama 33%
                        • Mitt Romney 54% (50%)
                        • Barack Obama 37% (42%)
                        • Michele Bachmann 53%
                        • Barack Obama 40%
                        • Rick Perry 53% (47%)
                        • Barack Obama 40% (45%)
                        • Herman Cain 49%
                        • Barack Obama 38%
                        • Sarah Palin 50% (48%)
                        • Barack Obama 41% (48%)
                        • Tim Pawlenty 48%
                        • Barack Obama 39%
                        Among Women
                        • Mitt Romney 47% (48%)
                        • Barack Obama 45% (43%)
                        • Barack Obama 47%
                        • Michele Bachmann 42%
                        • Barack Obama 47%
                        • Tim Pawlenty 40%
                        • Barack Obama 47%
                        • Ron Paul 39%
                        • Barack Obama 47%
                        • Herman Cain 38%
                        • Barack Obama 51% (44%)
                        • Sarah Palin 40% (46%)
                        • Barack Obama 52% (45%)
                        • Rick Perry 39% (43%)
                        Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                        • Michele Bachmann 39% / 36% {+3%}
                        • Mitt Romney 37% (40%) / 43% (37%) {-6%}
                        • Herman Cain 27% / 33% {-6%}
                        • Tim Pawlenty 22% / 37% {-15%}
                        • Ron Paul 30% / 46% {-16%}
                        • Sarah Palin 37% (42%) / 55% (53%) {-18%}
                          Among Republicans
                          • Sarah Palin 61% (73%) / 29% (22%) {+32%}
                          • Michele Bachmann 51% / 23% {+28%}
                          • Mitt Romney 53% (53%) / 29% (24%) {+24%}
                          • Herman Cain 43% / 21% {+22%}
                          • Tim Pawlenty 37% / 22% {+15%}
                          • Ron Paul 33% / 43% {-10%}
                          Among Independents
                          • Ron Paul 39% / 41% {-2%}
                          • Michele Bachmann 32% / 41% {-9%}
                          • Herman Cain 19% / 35% {-16%}
                          • Tim Pawlenty 16% / 37% {-21%}
                          • Mitt Romney 29% (35%) / 51% (37%) {-22%}
                          • Sarah Palin 29% (33%) / 63% (61%) {-34%}
                            Among Moderates
                            • Ron Paul 29% / 43% {-14%}
                            • Michele Bachmann 25% / 55% {-30%}
                            • Mitt Romney 24% (32%) / 54% (38%) {-30%}
                            • Tim Pawlenty 9% / 48% {-39%}
                            • Herman Cain 6% / 49% {-43%}
                            • Sarah Palin 16% (18%) / 81% (78%) {-65%}
                              Among Men
                              • Michele Bachmann 43% / 41% {+2%}
                              • Herman Cain 33% / 36% {-3%}
                              • Mitt Romney 41% (46%) / 45% (40%) {-4%}
                              • Sarah Palin 44% (45%) / 51% (52%) {-7%}
                              • Ron Paul 36% / 46% {-10%}
                              • Tim Pawlenty 27% / 40% {-13%}
                              Among Women
                              • Michele Bachmann 36% / 32% {+4%}
                              • Mitt Romney 34% (34%) / 42% (34%) {-8%}
                              • Herman Cain 22% / 31% {-9%}
                              • Tim Pawlenty 18% / 34% {-16%}
                              • Ron Paul 24% / 46% {-22%}
                              • Sarah Palin 32% (39%) / 59% (53%) {-27%}
                              Think Texas should secede from the United States
                              • Michele Bachmann 62% / 17% {+45%}
                              • Sarah Palin 61% / 28% {+33%}
                              • Ron Paul 48% / 25% {+23%}
                              • Herman Cain 45% / 23% {+22%}
                              • Mitt Romney 37% / 39% {-2%}
                              • Tim Pawlenty 27% / 31% {-4%}
                              Think Texas should not secede from the United States
                              • Mitt Romney 38% / 46% {-8%}
                              • Michele Bachmann 34% / 43% {-9%}
                              • Herman Cain 22% / 39% {-17%}
                              • Tim Pawlenty 22% / 41% {-19%}
                              • Ron Paul 27% / 54% {-27%}
                              • Sarah Palin 31% / 64% {-33%}
                              Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                              • Approve 42% (42%)
                              • Disapprove 55% (55%)
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry’s job performance?
                                  • Approve 43%
                                  • Disapprove 52%
                                  Do you think Rick Perry should run for president next year, or not?
                                  • He should run 33%
                                  • He should not 59%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • He should run 52%
                                  • He should not 38%
                                  Among Independents
                                  • He should run 36%
                                  • He should not 58%
                                  Do you think Texas should secede from the United States, or not?
                                  • Texas should secede 18%
                                  • It should not 71%
                                  Among Democrats
                                  • Texas should secede 6%
                                  • It should not 83%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • Texas should secede 25%
                                  • It should not 61%
                                  Among Somewhat Liberal
                                  • Texas should secede 0%
                                  • It should not 97%
                                  Among Moderates
                                  • Texas should secede 9%
                                  • It should not 80%
                                  Among Somewhat Conservative
                                  • Texas should secede 21%
                                  • It should not 65%
                                  Among Very Conservative
                                  • Texas should secede 36%
                                  • It should not 53%
                                  Survey of 795 Texas voters was conducted June 25-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 44% (42%) Republican; 35% (31%) Democrat; 21% (27%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Moderate; 26% Somewhat conservative; 26% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 6% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in parentheses.

                                  Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York Political Survey

                                  Quinnipiac New York Political Survey

                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                                  • Approve 57%
                                  • Disapprove 38%
                                  Among Democrats
                                  • Approve 82%
                                  • Disapprove 12%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • Approve 23%
                                  • Disapprove 74%
                                  Among Independents
                                  • Approve 49%
                                  • Disapprove 45%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as Governor?
                                  • Approve 64%
                                  • Disapprove 19%
                                  Among Democrats
                                  • Approve 75%
                                  • Disapprove 13%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • Approve 53%
                                  • Disapprove 26%
                                  Among Independents
                                  • Approve 61%
                                  • Disapprove 19%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                  • Approve 64%
                                  • Disapprove 24%
                                  Among Democrats
                                  • Approve 81%
                                  • Disapprove 7%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • Approve 48%
                                  • Disapprove 40%
                                  Among Independents
                                  • Approve 56%
                                  • Disapprove 36%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                  • Approve 54%
                                  • Disapprove 22%
                                  Among Democrats
                                  • Approve 67%
                                  • Disapprove 11%
                                  Among Republicans
                                  • Approve 33%
                                  • Disapprove 39%
                                  Among Independents
                                  • Approve 54%
                                  • Disapprove 22%
                                  Survey of 1,317 registered voters was conducted June 20-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

                                  Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia Political Survey

                                  Quinnipiac Virginia Political Survey

                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling his job as Governor?
                                  • Approve 55%
                                  • Disapprove 26%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob McDonnell is handling the state budget?
                                  • Approve 50%
                                  • Disapprove 34%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the state budget agreed to by Governor McDonnell and the state legislature?
                                  • Approve 40%
                                  • Disapprove 30%
                                  Would you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?
                                  • Support 41%
                                  • Oppose 52%
                                  College Degree
                                  • Support 52%
                                  • Oppose 41%
                                  No College Degree
                                  • Support 34%
                                  • Oppose 60%
                                  Do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to adopt children?
                                  • Support 51%
                                  • Oppose 43%
                                  College Degree
                                  • Support 65%
                                  • Oppose 29%
                                  No College Degree
                                  • Support 43%
                                  • Oppose 52%
                                  Currently in Virginia, state and church run adoption agencies can prevent an adoption to prospective parents based on their sexual orientation. Do you think that policy should be continued or ended?
                                  • Continued 42%
                                  • Ended 51%
                                  Do you think that state-run adoption agencies should be allowed to prevent an adoption if the prospective parents are gay or lesbian or don't you think so?
                                  • Yes 35%
                                  • No 59%
                                  Do you think that church-run adoption agencies should be allowed to prevent an adoption if the prospective parents are gay or lesbian or don't you think so?
                                  • Yes 48%
                                  • No 45%
                                  Survey of 1,434 registered voters was conducted June 21 - 27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points.

                                  Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

                                  Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?
                                  • Approve 44%
                                  • Disapprove 51%
                                  Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing:


                                  With bringing jobs to New Jersey
                                  • Approve 37%
                                  • Disapprove 48%
                                  With cutting state government
                                  • Approve 44%
                                  • Disapprove 46%
                                  With relations with unions
                                  • Approve 39%
                                  • Disapprove 47%
                                  With tax policy
                                  • Approve 35%
                                  • Disapprove 55%
                                  With environmental issues
                                  • Approve 33%
                                  • Disapprove 38%
                                  With public education
                                  • Approve 40%
                                  • Disapprove 54%
                                  A lot of things can happen between now and November of 2013 when Governor Christie would potentially be on the ballot to be re-elected as governor. But if that election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Governor Christie, probably vote for him, probably vote for another candidate or definitely vote for another candidate, or would you likely not vote?
                                  • Definitely vote for Christie 23%
                                  • Probably vote for Christie 16%
                                  • Probably vote for another candidate 14%
                                  • Definitely vote for another candidate 37%
                                  • Would not vote 6%
                                  Since Governor Christie took office in January of 2010, has your opinion of him gotten better or gotten worse, or has it not changed?
                                  • A lot better 16%
                                  • A little better 9%
                                  • Not changed 29%
                                  • A little worse 12%
                                  • A lot worse 33%
                                  I’m going to mention some things Governor Christie has done or is trying to do as governor. For each, please tell me if you favor or oppose the action.


                                  Cancelled funding for a commuter rail tunnel to New York City
                                  • Favor 41%
                                  • Oppose 51%
                                  Used a state helicopter to attend his son’s baseball game
                                  • Favor 21%
                                  • Oppose 70%
                                  Eliminated property tax credits
                                  • Favor 28%
                                  • Oppose 57%
                                  Cut 1.7 billion dollars in the state education budget
                                  • Favor 31%
                                  • Oppose 65%
                                  Proposed a plan to require public employees to pay for 30% of their health care insurance premiums
                                  • Favor 52%
                                  • Oppose 43%
                                  Has cut regulations on business by a third with the goal of attracting new businesses to New Jersey
                                  • Favor 59%
                                  • Oppose 31%
                                  Has enacted a cap on property tax rates
                                  • Favor 62%
                                  • Oppose 28%
                                  Has proposed ending seniority rules for teachers that required the newest teachers to be the first to be laid off
                                  • Favor 44%
                                  • Oppose 50%
                                  Introduced merit pay for teachers
                                  • Favor 63%
                                  • Oppose 26%
                                  Let a surcharge on corporate business taxes expire so businesses would pay less in state taxes
                                  • Favor 39%
                                  • Oppose 52%
                                  Vetoed an extension of a so-called “millionaires” tax surcharge on income over $500,000
                                  • Favor 33%
                                  • Oppose 58%
                                  In general, in debates about the budget between Governor Christie and public employee unions, do you side with Governor Christie or with the public employee unions?
                                  • Public employee unions 50%
                                  • Governor Christie 38%
                                  I have a couple of questions about health insurance and public employees. Governor Christie is proposing that all state employees be required to pay an average of $3,600 per year. Is it your sense this would mean on average public employees would be contributing more, less, or about the same as private sector employees contribute to health insurance premiums?
                                  • More 24%
                                  • Less 23%
                                  • About the same 38%
                                  Some have described this health insurance proposal as a strong-arm tactic to remove health insurance benefits from collective bargaining with public employee unions, while others see it as an honest move to cut expenses and make public employees more responsible for health care costs. How about you—do you see it more as a strong-arm tactic, or more as an honest move to cut costs?
                                  • Honest move to cut costs 52%
                                  • Strong-arm tactic 42%
                                  If the vote for president were today and the candidates were Barack Obama for the Democrats and Chris Christie for the Republicans, for whom would you vote?
                                  • Barack Obama 56%
                                  • Chris Christie 33%
                                  At any time since 2009, have you considered yourself a supporter of Chris Christie? (If yes)
                                  How would you describe yourself now?
                                  • Yes, I still support him as much as I ever did 27%
                                  • Yes, I still support him but not as much as before 4%
                                  • Yes, some days I support him, some days I don’t 11%
                                  • Yes, he disappointed me and I no longer support him 2%
                                  • Yes, I am angry and now actively oppose him 2%
                                  • Never supported him 53%
                                  Regardless of any party affiliation, do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?
                                  • Yes 23%
                                  • No 67%
                                  Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                  • Barack Obama 59% / 37% {+22%}
                                  • Frank Lautenberg 40% / 25% {+15%}
                                  • Bob Menendez 33% / 23% {+10%}
                                  • Chris Christie 43% / 53% {-10%}
                                  Survey of 1,302 adults was conducted June 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 29% Democrat; 23% Republican; 44% Independent.  Click here to view crosstabs.

                                  Poll Watch: Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

                                  Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
                                  • Mitt Romney 36% (35%)
                                  • Michele Bachmann 11% (3%)
                                  • Ron Paul 8% (8%)
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 5% (8%)
                                  • Jon Huntsman 4% (0%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 4% (7%)
                                  • Herman Cain 2% (2%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 2% (5%)
                                  • Rick Perry 2%
                                  • Newt Gingrich 2% (3%)
                                  • George Pataki 1%
                                  • Rick Santorum 1% (2%)
                                  • John Bolton 0% (1%)
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Gary Johnson 0% (1%)
                                  • Fred Karger 0% (0%)
                                  • Roy Moore 0% (0%)
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%)
                                  • Undecided 21% (13%)
                                  If your first choice for the Republican Presidential nominee dropped out of the race, who would you vote for instead?
                                  • Mitt Romney 14% (17%)
                                  • Michele Bachmann 12% (4%)
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 6% (9%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 6% (3%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 5% (4%)
                                  • Ron Paul 4% (6%)
                                  • Rick Santorum 4% (1%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 3% (8%)
                                  • Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
                                  • Herman Cain 2% (1%)
                                  • Rick Perry 2%
                                  • Gary Johnson 1% (1%)
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Fred Karger 0% (0%)
                                  • Roy Moore 0% (0%)
                                  • John Bolton 0% (0%)
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%)
                                  • Undecided 38% (30%)
                                  Despite who you're personally voting for, who do you expect the next president will be - Barack Obama or one of the Republican candidates?
                                  • Mitt Romney 27% (20%)
                                  • Barack Obama 24% (28%)
                                  • Michele Bachmann 7% (1%)
                                  • Ron Paul 2% (1%)
                                  • Rick Santorum 2% (1%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 2% (2%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 1% (2%)
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 1% (2%)
                                  • Rick Perry 1%
                                  • Newt Gingrich 1% (1%)
                                  • John Bolton 0% (1%)
                                  • Herman Cain 0% (1%)
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Jon Huntsman 0% (0%)
                                  • Gary Johnson 0% (0%)
                                  • Fred Karger 0% (0%)
                                  • Roy Moore 0% (0%)
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%)
                                  • Undecided 34% (30%)
                                  Of the Republican candidates we've discussed thus far, who do you feel is the most conservative?
                                  • Michele Bachmann 15% (8%)
                                  • Ron Paul 13% (18%)
                                  • Mitt Romney 11% (8%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 7% (7%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 6% (13%)
                                  • Rick Santorum 5% (2%)
                                  • Herman Cain 3% (1%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 2% (2%)
                                  • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 1% (0%)
                                  • John Bolton 1% (0%)
                                  • Buddy Roemer 1% (0%)
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Gary Johnson 0% (0%)
                                  • Fred Karger 0% (0%)
                                  • Roy Moore 0% (0%)
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Undecided 36% (30%)
                                  Who do you feel is the least conservative?
                                  • Mitt Romney 14% (14%)
                                  • Newt Gingrich 10% (2%)
                                  • Jon Huntsman 8% (1%)
                                  • Ron Paul 7% (5%)
                                  • Sarah Palin 5% (8%)
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 5% (11%)
                                  • Michele Bachmann 2% (1%)
                                  • Gary Johnson 1% (0%)
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 1% (2%)
                                  • Roy Moore 1% (0%)
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Rick Santorum 0% (0%)
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • John Bolton 0% (0%)
                                  • Herman Cain 0% (0%)
                                  • Fred Karger 0% (0%)
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0% (0%)
                                  • Undecided 47% (39%)
                                  Which candidate can you count on most to tell you the truth?
                                  • Mitt Romney 18%
                                  • Michele Bachmann 10%
                                  • Ron Paul 8%
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 6%
                                  • Sarah Palin 5%
                                  • Herman Cain 3%
                                  • Jon Huntsman 3%
                                  • Rick Santorum 2%
                                  • Newt Gingrich 1%
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
                                  • Buddy Roemer 1%
                                  • John Bolton 1%
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Gary Johnson 0%
                                  • Fred Karger 0%
                                  • Roy Moore 0%
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Rick Perry 0%
                                  • Undecided 42%
                                  Which candidate do you trust the most?
                                  • Mitt Romney 27%
                                  • Michele Bachmann 9%
                                  • Ron Paul 9%
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 6%
                                  • Jon Huntsman 4%
                                  • Sarah Palin 4%
                                  • Rick Santorum 3%
                                  • Herman Cain 2%
                                  • Newt Gingrich 2%
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
                                  • John Bolton 1%
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Gary Johnson 0%
                                  • Fred Karger 0%
                                  • Roy Moore 0%
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Rick Perry 0%
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0%
                                  • Undecided 33%
                                  Which candidate do you trust the least?
                                  • Newt Gingrich 19%
                                  • Sarah Palin 17%
                                  • Mitt Romney 10%
                                  • Ron Paul 6%
                                  • Michele Bachmann 2%
                                  • Jon Huntsman 2%
                                  • John Bolton 1%
                                  • Herman Cain 1%
                                  • Rudy Giuliani 1%
                                  • Gary Johnson 1%
                                  • Rick Santorum 1%
                                  • Jim DeMint 0%
                                  • Fred Karger 0%
                                  • Roy Moore 0%
                                  • George Pataki 0%
                                  • Rick Perry 0%
                                  • Tim Pawlenty 0%
                                  • Buddy Roemer 0%
                                  • Undecided 38%
                                    Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                    • Mitt Romney 64% (65%) / 19% (22%) {+45%}
                                    • Michele Bachmann 44% (25%) / 22% (22%) {+22%}
                                    • Tim Pawlenty 34% (30%) / 15% (13%) {+19%}
                                    • Herman Cain 24% / 15% {+9%}
                                    • Rick Santorum 27% / 20% {+7%}
                                    • Jon Hunstman 19% (8%) / 18% (7%) {+1%}
                                    • Ron Paul 36% (41%) / 36% (32%) {0%}
                                    • Sarah Palin 37% (42%) / 50% (46%) {-13%}
                                    • Newt Gingrich 24% (38%) / 56% (38%) {-32%}
                                    • Barack Obama 25% (36%) / 70% (59%) {-45%}
                                    How satisfied are you with the Republican field of candidates?
                                    • Very satisfied 18% (10%)
                                    • Somewhat satisfied 48% (43%)
                                    • Somewhat dissatisfied 18% (27%)
                                    • Very dissatisfied 10% (13%)
                                    Mitt Romney has changed his position on several social issues. Do those changes disqualify him from getting your vote?
                                    • Yes 24%
                                    • No 69%
                                      Thinking about Mitt Romney, does his involvement in helping to pass Massachusetts's universal health care make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or does it not affect your decision?
                                      • More likely 10% (14%)
                                      • Less likely 26% (29%)
                                      • No effect 61% (53%)
                                        Do you agree or disagree that raising taxes should be an option for helping to reduce the national debt?
                                        • Agree 28% (32%)
                                        • Disagree 67% (63%)
                                          Do you think that the near-universal health care bill passed by Democrats last year should be repealed, modified or left alone?
                                          • Repealed 53% (52%)
                                          • Modified 27% (34%)
                                          • Left alone 13% (10%)
                                          What do you think is the most important issue facing the country right now?
                                          • Jobs and the economy 46%
                                          • Reducing the national debt 19%
                                          • Military involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya 5%
                                          • Health care 4%
                                          • Illegal immigration 4%
                                          • Terrorism and National security 3%
                                          • Energy independence 3%
                                          • Taxes 3%
                                          • Schools and education 3%
                                          • Abortion policy 2%
                                          • Same-sex marriage 1%
                                          • Civil liberties 1%
                                          • Undecided 7%
                                          Survey of 400 likely GOP primary voters was conducted June 25-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 48% (50%) Republican; 39% (38%) Independent; 9% (10%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 54% (45%) Conservative; 38% (43%) Moderate; 6% (9%) Liberal.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.

                                          Tuesday, June 28, 2011

                                          Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

                                          McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

                                          Republican Nomination
                                          • Mitt Romney 19% (18%) [20%] {25%}
                                          • Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
                                          • Rick Perry 13%
                                          • Sarah Palin 11% (8%) [13%] {18%}
                                          • Michele Bachmann 8% (3%)
                                          • Tim Pawlenty 5% (2%) [2%] {6%}
                                          • Ron Paul 5% (7%)
                                          • Herman Cain 5% (2%)
                                          • Newt Gingrich 2% (4%) [10%] {16%}
                                          • Jon Huntsman 2% (1%)
                                          • Rick Santorum 1% (2%)
                                          • Gary Johnson 0%
                                          • Fred Karger 0%
                                          • Undecided 15% (11%) [14%] {13%}
                                          Among Republicans
                                          • Mitt Romney 21% (19%)
                                          • Rick Perry 15%
                                          • Rudy Giuliani 12% (11%)
                                          • Sarah Palin 11% (8%)
                                          • Michele Bachmann 7% (3%)
                                          • Tim Pawlenty 6% (2%)
                                          • Ron Paul 4% (5%)
                                          • Herman Cain 4% (1%)
                                          • Newt Gingrich 3% (3%)
                                          • Rick Santorum 2% (3%)
                                          • Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
                                          • Gary Johnson 0%
                                          • Fred Karger 0%
                                          • Undecided 14% (12%)
                                          Among GOP-Leaning Independents
                                          • Rudy Giuliani 17% (6%)
                                          • Mitt Romney 14% (15%)
                                          • Sarah Palin 12% (10%)
                                          • Michele Bachmann 9% (3%)
                                          • Rick Perry 9%
                                          • Herman Cain 7% (3%)
                                          • Ron Paul 6% (10%)
                                          • Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%)
                                          • Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
                                          • Newt Gingrich 2% (5%)
                                          • Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
                                          • Gary Johnson 0%
                                          • Fred Karger 0%
                                          • Undecided 17% (8%)
                                            General Election
                                            • Barack Obama 46% (46%) [51%] (44%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 42% (45%) [38%] (46%)
                                            • Barack Obama 48%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 41%
                                            • Barack Obama 48%
                                            • Rick Perry 39%
                                            • Barack Obama 49%
                                            • Michele Bachmann 37%
                                            • Barack Obama 47%
                                            • Tim Pawlenty 33%
                                            • Barack Obama 56% (56%) [56%] (52%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 30% (34%) [30%] (40%)

                                            Among Democrats
                                            • Barack Obama 79%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 14%
                                            • Barack Obama 86% (87%) [89%] (85%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 10% (6%) [6%] (11%)
                                            • Barack Obama 87% (80%) [87%] (81%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 6% (13%) [8%] (11%)
                                            Among Republicans
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 84%
                                            • Barack Obama 12%
                                            • Mitt Romney 86% (83%) [81%] (87%)
                                            • Barack Obama 6% (10%) [10%] (6%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 66% (69%) [66%] (78%)
                                            • Barack Obama 22% (20%) [16%] (12%)
                                            Among Independents
                                            • Barack Obama 43%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 38%
                                            • Barack Obama 43% (42%) [47%] (39%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 39% (45%) [37%] (47%)
                                            • Barack Obama 52% (52%) [57%] (52%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 28% (35%) [29%] (35%)
                                            Among Moderates
                                            • Barack Obama 52%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 34%
                                            • Barack Obama 60% (54%) [57%] (53%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 26% (35%) [30%] (38%)
                                            • Barack Obama 63% (67%) [69%] (68%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 19% (23%) [17%] (26%)
                                            Among Conservatives
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 61%
                                            • Barack Obama 28%
                                            • Mitt Romney 75% (67%) [65%] (67%)
                                            • Barack Obama 19% (23%) [24%] (23%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 49% (56%) [58%] (64%)
                                            • Barack Obama 36% (31%) [28%] (26%)
                                            Among Liberals
                                            • Barack Obama 88%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 11%
                                            • Barack Obama 78% (77%) [85%] (78%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 19% (19%) [8%] (13%)
                                            • Barack Obama 89% (82%) [85%] (83%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 10% (14%) [7%] (13%)
                                            Among Men
                                            • Barack Obama 45%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 41%
                                            • Mitt Romney 45% (44%) [41%] (47%)
                                            • Barack Obama 40% (50%) [47%] (44%)
                                            • Barack Obama 54% (57%) [52%] (53%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 28% (34%) [35%] (40%)
                                            Among Women
                                            • Barack Obama 50%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 40%
                                            • Barack Obama 52% (42%) [54%] (44%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 40% (45%) [36%] (44%)
                                            • Barack Obama 58% (55%) [60%] (50%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 33% (34%) [27%] (39%)
                                            Northeast
                                            • Barack Obama 52%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 42%
                                            • Barack Obama 57% (51%) [54%] (49%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 28% (38%) [30%] (43%)
                                            • Barack Obama 56% (61%) [59%] (58%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 32% (26%) [22%] (36%)
                                            Midwest
                                            • Barack Obama 44%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 42%
                                            • Mitt Romney 45% (48%) [38%] (43%)
                                            • Barack Obama 43% (47%) [54%] (47%)
                                            • Barack Obama 51% (55%) [63%] (52%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 28% (41%) [27%] (39%)
                                            South
                                            • Barack Obama 44%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 37%
                                            • Mitt Romney 48% (49%) [40%] (53%)
                                            • Barack Obama 41% (42%) [49%] (36%)
                                            • Barack Obama 57% (49%) [52%] (45%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 30% (37%) [35%] (47%)
                                            West
                                            • Barack Obama 54%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 44%
                                            • Barack Obama 48% (49%) [48%] (50%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 44% (41%) [42%] (38%)
                                            • Barack Obama 61% (62%) [54%] (58%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 32% (30%) [32%] (32%)
                                            College Graduate
                                            • Barack Obama 50%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 38%
                                            • Barack Obama 50% (52%)
                                            • Mitt Romney 42% (40%) 
                                            • Barack Obama 57% (61%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 27% (28%)
                                            Not a College Graduate
                                            • Barack Obama 46%
                                            • Rudy Giuliani 43%
                                            • Mitt Romney 43% (48%)
                                            • Barack Obama 43% (42%)
                                            • Barack Obama 55% (52%)
                                            • Sarah Palin 34% (39%)
                                                    Survey of 801 registered voters, including a subsample of 308 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted June 15-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all voters; ±5.5 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 34% (35%) [35%] (37%) Democrat; 27% (27%) [28%] (28%) Republican; 38% (36%) [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 43% (40%) [42%] (46%) Conservative; 36% (39%) [34%] (34%) Moderate; 21% (21%) [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.

                                                    Inside the numbers:
                                                    The poll suggests that the "tea party," the grassroots conservative movement that helped elect dozens of Republicans to Congress last year, has limited influence. Only 8 percent of registered voters said they strongly support the movement and 16 percent said they support it. Among Republicans, 45 percent said they supported the tea party, while 39 percent didn't and 15 percent were unsure. 
                                                    And 20 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents said they were more likely to support a tea party-backed candidate, while 70 percent said it made no difference. 
                                                    Obama faces determined opposition: 43 percent of voters said they would definitely vote against him in 2012. So would 43 percent of independents, 10 percent of Democrats and 85 percent of Republicans.

                                                    Poll Watch: Hays Research Alaska 2012 Presidential Survey

                                                    Hays Research Alaska 2012 Presidential Survey
                                                    • Barack Obama 42%
                                                    • Sarah Palin 36%
                                                    • Other Candidate 7%
                                                    • Undecided/Don’t Know 16%
                                                    Survey of 500 likely Alaskan voters was conducted June 21-22, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

                                                    Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida Survey on Governor Rick Scott

                                                    PPP (D) Florida Survey on Governor Rick Scott

                                                    Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Scott’s job performance?
                                                    • Approve 33% [32%]
                                                    • Disapprove 59% [55%]
                                                    Among Democrats
                                                    • Approve 10% [11%]
                                                    • Disapprove 82% [81%]
                                                    Among Republicans
                                                    • Approve 63% [57%]
                                                    • Disapprove 30% [27%]
                                                    Among Independents
                                                    • Approve 27% [31%]
                                                    • Disapprove 64% [54%]
                                                    Among Moderates
                                                    • Approve 21% [17%]
                                                    • Disapprove 71% [72%]
                                                    Among Men
                                                    • Approve 37% [39%]
                                                    • Disapprove 56% [51%]
                                                    Among Women
                                                    • Approve 29% [26%]
                                                    • Disapprove 62% [59%]
                                                    If you could do last fall’s election for Governor over again, would you vote for Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
                                                    • Alex Sink 57% [56%]
                                                    • Rick Scott 35% [37%]
                                                    Have Rick Scott’s actions as Governor made it more or less likely that you’ll vote for a Republican for President next year, or has it not made a difference?
                                                    • More likely 26%
                                                    • Less likely 40%
                                                    • Hasn't made a difference 34%
                                                    Do you think Charlie Crist should become a Democrat or not?
                                                    • He should 43%
                                                    • He should not 26%
                                                    If the candidates for Governor next time were Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, who would you vote for?
                                                    • Charlie Crist 56%
                                                    • Rick Scott 34%
                                                    Survey of 848 Florida voters was conducted June 16-19, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% [41%] Democrat; 36% [37%] Republican; 21% [22%] Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% [30%] Moderate; 23% [26%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [21%] Very conservative; 17% [16%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [7%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.

                                                    Poll Watch: PPP (D) Montana 2012 Presidential Survey

                                                    PPP (D) Montana 2012 Presidential Survey
                                                    • Mitt Romney 49% (50%)
                                                    • Barack Obama 41% (39%)
                                                    • Michele Bachmann 48%
                                                    • Barack Obama 42%
                                                    • Herman Cain 46%
                                                    • Barack Obama 41%
                                                    • Tim Pawlenty 45%
                                                    • Barack Obama 41%
                                                    • Sarah Palin 48% (47%)
                                                    • Barack Obama 44% (45%)
                                                    Among Independents
                                                    • Mitt Romney 43% (38%)
                                                    • Barack Obama 37% (43%)
                                                    • Herman Cain 42%
                                                    • Barack Obama 38%
                                                    • Michele Bachmann 43%
                                                    • Barack Obama 41%
                                                    • Tim Pawlenty 40%
                                                    • Barack Obama 38%
                                                    • Barack Obama 43% (52%)
                                                    • Sarah Palin 43% (34%)
                                                    Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
                                                    • Herman Cain 25% / 27% {-2%}
                                                    • Michele Bachmann 34% / 40% {-6%}
                                                    • Sarah Palin 41% (44%) / 51% (50%) {-10%}
                                                    • Tim Pawlenty 22% / 36% {-14%}
                                                    • Mitt Romney 33% (38%) / 48% (39%) {-15%}
                                                    Among Independents
                                                    • Herman Cain 23% / 25% {-2%}
                                                    • Michele Bachmann 30% / 37% {-7%}
                                                    • Tim Pawlenty 22% / 35% {-13%}
                                                    • Sarah Palin 38% (35%) / 52% (61%) {-14%}
                                                    • Mitt Romney 26% (35%) / 51% (43%) {-25%}
                                                    Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
                                                    • Approve 43% (41%)
                                                    • Disapprove 54% (54%)
                                                    Among Independents
                                                    • Approve 39% (46%)
                                                    • Disapprove 56% (46%)
                                                    Survey of 819 Montana voters was conducted June 16-19, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% (38%) Republican; 31% (29%) Democrat; 30% (32%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 27% Moderate; 25% Somewhat conservative; 21% Very conservative; 19% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.

                                                    Tim Pawlenty Delivers Speech at Council on Foreign Relations