Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination

• Mitt Romney 19% (18%) [20%] {25%}
• Rudy Giuliani 13% (9%)
• Rick Perry 13%
• Sarah Palin 11% (8%) [13%] {18%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% (3%)
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (2%) [2%] {6%}
• Ron Paul 5% (7%)
• Herman Cain 5% (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 2% (4%) [10%] {16%}
• Jon Huntsman 2% (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%)
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Fred Karger 0%
• Undecided 15% (11%) [14%] {13%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 21% (19%)
• Rick Perry 15%
• Rudy Giuliani 12% (11%)
• Sarah Palin 11% (8%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% (3%)
• Tim Pawlenty 6% (2%)
• Ron Paul 4% (5%)
• Herman Cain 4% (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 3% (3%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%)
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Fred Karger 0%
• Undecided 14% (12%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Rudy Giuliani 17% (6%)
• Mitt Romney 14% (15%)
• Sarah Palin 12% (10%)
• Michele Bachmann 9% (3%)
• Rick Perry 9%
• Herman Cain 7% (3%)
• Ron Paul 6% (10%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%)
• Jon Huntsman 3% (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 2% (5%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Fred Karger 0%
• Undecided 17% (8%)

General Election

• Barack Obama 46% (46%) [51%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 42% (45%) [38%] (46%)

• Barack Obama 48%
• Rudy Giuliani 41%

• Barack Obama 48%
• Rick Perry 39%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Michele Bachmann 37%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Tim Pawlenty 33%

• Barack Obama 56% (56%) [56%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 30% (34%) [30%] (40%)

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 79%
• Rudy Giuliani 14%

• Barack Obama 86% (87%) [89%] (85%)
• Sarah Palin 10% (6%) [6%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 87% (80%) [87%] (81%)
• Mitt Romney 6% (13%) [8%] (11%)

Among Republicans

• Rudy Giuliani 84%
• Barack Obama 12%

• Mitt Romney 86% (83%) [81%] (87%)
• Barack Obama 6% (10%) [10%] (6%)

• Sarah Palin 66% (69%) [66%] (78%)
• Barack Obama 22% (20%) [16%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 43%
• Rudy Giuliani 38%

• Barack Obama 43% (42%) [47%] (39%)
• Mitt Romney 39% (45%) [37%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 52% (52%) [57%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 28% (35%) [29%] (35%)

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 52%
• Rudy Giuliani 34%

• Barack Obama 60% (54%) [57%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 26% (35%) [30%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 63% (67%) [69%] (68%)
• Sarah Palin 19% (23%) [17%] (26%)

Among Conservatives

• Rudy Giuliani 61%
• Barack Obama 28%

• Mitt Romney 75% (67%) [65%] (67%)
• Barack Obama 19% (23%) [24%] (23%)

• Sarah Palin 49% (56%) [58%] (64%)
• Barack Obama 36% (31%) [28%] (26%)

Among Liberals

• Barack Obama 88%
• Rudy Giuliani 11%

• Barack Obama 78% (77%) [85%] (78%)
• Mitt Romney 19% (19%) [8%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 89% (82%) [85%] (83%)
• Sarah Palin 10% (14%) [7%] (13%)

Among Men

• Barack Obama 45%
• Rudy Giuliani 41%

• Mitt Romney 45% (44%) [41%] (47%)
• Barack Obama 40% (50%) [47%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 54% (57%) [52%] (53%)
• Sarah Palin 28% (34%) [35%] (40%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rudy Giuliani 40%

• Barack Obama 52% (42%) [54%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (45%) [36%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 58% (55%) [60%] (50%)
• Sarah Palin 33% (34%) [27%] (39%)

Northeast

• Barack Obama 52%
• Rudy Giuliani 42%

• Barack Obama 57% (51%) [54%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 28% (38%) [30%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 56% (61%) [59%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 32% (26%) [22%] (36%)

Midwest

• Barack Obama 44%
• Rudy Giuliani 42%

• Mitt Romney 45% (48%) [38%] (43%)
• Barack Obama 43% (47%) [54%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 51% (55%) [63%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 28% (41%) [27%] (39%)

South

• Barack Obama 44%
• Rudy Giuliani 37%

• Mitt Romney 48% (49%) [40%] (53%)
• Barack Obama 41% (42%) [49%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 57% (49%) [52%] (45%)
• Sarah Palin 30% (37%) [35%] (47%)

West

• Barack Obama 54%
• Rudy Giuliani 44%

• Barack Obama 48% (49%) [48%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 44% (41%) [42%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 61% (62%) [54%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 32% (30%) [32%] (32%)

College Graduate

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rudy Giuliani 38%

• Barack Obama 50% (52%)
• Mitt Romney 42% (40%) 

• Barack Obama 57% (61%)
• Sarah Palin 27% (28%)

Not a College Graduate

• Barack Obama 46%
• Rudy Giuliani 43%

• Mitt Romney 43% (48%)
• Barack Obama 43% (42%)

• Barack Obama 55% (52%)
• Sarah Palin 34% (39%)

Survey of 801 registered voters, including a subsample of 308 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted June 15-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all voters; ±5.5 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 34% (35%) [35%] (37%) Democrat; 27% (27%) [28%] (28%) Republican; 38% (36%) [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 43% (40%) [42%] (46%) Conservative; 36% (39%) [34%] (34%) Moderate; 21% (21%) [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

The poll suggests that the "tea party," the grassroots conservative movement that helped elect dozens of Republicans to Congress last year, has limited influence. Only 8 percent of registered voters said they strongly support the movement and 16 percent said they support it. Among Republicans, 45 percent said they supported the tea party, while 39 percent didn't and 15 percent were unsure. 

And 20 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents said they were more likely to support a tea party-backed candidate, while 70 percent said it made no difference. 

Obama faces determined opposition: 43 percent of voters said they would definitely vote against him in 2012. So would 43 percent of independents, 10 percent of Democrats and 85 percent of Republicans.