Sunday, July 31, 2016

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

The candidates for President are Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [45%] (42%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 41% [41%] (38%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6% [5%] (4%)
  • Jill Stein (G) 2% [2%] (2%)
  • Undecided 5% [7%] (13%)
If you had to choose between just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [48%] (47%) {48%} [47%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {50%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 45% [44%] (41%) {41%} [40%] (43%) {44%} [44%] (44%) {37%} 
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 51% [52%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [39%] (43%)
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% [55%] (50%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 39% [38%] (36%)
National survey of 1,276 likely voters was conducted July 29-30, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [39%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (41%) {41%} [42%] (43%) {41%} Democrat; 36% [34%] (36%) {36%} [34%] (32%) {34%} [34%] (33%) {33%} Republican; 21% [27%] (21%) {24%} [24%] (26%) {25%} [24%] (23%) {26%} Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted June 20-21, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 24-26, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 2-3, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 16-17, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 16-17, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 28-30, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 20-21, 2015 are in curly brackets.

Friday, July 29, 2016

Poll Watch: PPIC California 2016 Presidential Survey

PPIC California 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (49%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 30% (39%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein 6% 
Among Men
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (38%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 30% (49%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 11%
  • Jill Stein (G) 6%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (61%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 29% (30%)
  • Jill Stein (G) 5%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 3%
Survey of 1,056 likely voters was conducted July 10-19, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 13-22, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Missouri 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Missouri 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Donald Trump (R) 40%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9%
  • Jill Stein (G) 1%
  • Undecided 9%
Survey of 625 likely voters was conducted July 23-24, 2016 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Suffolk University Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

If the general election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump, for whom will you vote or lean towards?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50.0%
  • Donald Trump (R) 41.4%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35% 
Pennsylvania’s presidential ballot may include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the general election was hel d today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Green Party Jill Stein, or Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom will you vote or lean toward?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45.8%
  • Donald Trump (R) 37.2%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5.0%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2.6%
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 25-27, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%] (37%) {40%} [39%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [37%] (39%) {41%} [37%] (36%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 42% [43%] (44%) {42%} [43%] (39%) {39%} [38%] (38%) {39%} [42%] (41%) {36%} [36%] (38%)
  • Some other candidate 10% [11%] (13%) {13%} [12%] (11%) {14%} [15%] (18%) {14%} [13%] (15%) {21%} [22%] (22%)
  • Undecided 4% [4%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted July 26-27, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 18-19, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 12-13, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 5, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 28-29, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-15, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 17-18, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 27-28, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 1, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 22-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Trump still has stronger support among voters in his own party (86%) than Clinton does among Democrats (79%). But this week Clinton has taken a five-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.
Trump is up by four points among men, while Clinton is up five among women.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Nevada 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Donald Trump (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8%
  • Some other candidate 4%
  • Undecided (vol.) 7%
Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016 for KTNV-TV 13 Action News. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Poll Watch: Landmark Communications/RosettaStone (R) Georgia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Donald Trump (R) 45.5% (42.3%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44.2% (41.4%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5.2%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2.5%
Among Whites
  • Donald Trump (R) 67.6% (60.8%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 21.3% (25.1%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6.0%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3.5%
Among Blacks
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 87.6% (73.1%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 6.2% (9.4%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 2.5%
  • Jill Stein (G) 0.6%
Survey of 500 likely Georgia voters was conducted July 24, 2016 for WSB-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 5, 2016 are in parentheses.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

The candidates for President are Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D)  39%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
If you had to choose between just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 45% [40%] (42%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [44%] (45%) {45%}
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 50% [43%] (51%) {46%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [38%] (37%) {39%}
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [49%] (52%) {50%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 41% [37%] (34%) {35%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 37% / 56% {-19%}
  • Hillary Clinton 35% / 54% {-19%}
Survey of 1,334 registered Ohio voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [39%] (41%) {39%} Democrat; 38% [40%] (38%) {37%} Republican; 23% [22%] (21%) {24%} Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted June 22-23, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 26-27, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 4-6, 2016 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS News 2016 National Presidential Poll

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
  • Donald Trump (R) 44% {40%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {40%} [47%] (50%)
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson?
  • Donald Trump (R) 40% {36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 12% {12%} 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 34% {30%} (24%) / 53% {54%} (57%) {-19%}
  • Hillary Clinton 31% {28%} (31%) / 56% {54%} (52%) {-25%}
National survey of 1,118 registered voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 8-12, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 13-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Poll

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party’s candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 48% (42%) {42%} [41%] (41%) {44%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (48%) {45%} [40%] (35%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 45% (49%) {47%} [54%] (53%) {52%} [48%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (59%)
Among Men
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 52% (47%) {46%} [47%] (50%) {54%} [57%] (47%) {53%} [49%] (56%) {53%} [46%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 40% (44%) {42%} [47%] (45%) {41%} [39%] (48%) {43%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [50%] (57%)
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 50% (52%) {53%} [61%] (60%) {62%} [57%] (50%) {55%} [53%] (55%) {60%} [62%] (61%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 44% (38%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {34%} [37%] (46%) {40%} [41%] (41%) {37%} [34%] (34%)
Among Whites
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 57% (52%) {51%} [52%] (48%) {57%} [57%] (55%) {58%} [54%] (57%) {55%} [50%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 36% (39%) {38%} [43%] (44%) {39%} [38%] (40%) {37%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (48%)
Among Non-Whites
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 69% (69%) {71%} [81%] (74%) {80%} [72%] (71%) {76%} [72%] (67%) {71%} [75%] (82%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 23% (21%) {19%} [14%] (22%) {15%} [22%] (25%) {21%} [25%] (28%) {24%} [21%] (15%) 
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party’s candidate, Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 44% (37%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (42%) {42%}
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9% (13%) {9%}
  • Jill Stein (G) 3% (5%) {7%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 46% (39%) {40%} [41%] (33%) {38%} / 51% (59%) {59%} [56%] (65%) {59%} {-5%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {42%} [49%] (42%) {44%} / 55% (55%) {57%} [49%] (57%) {53%} {-14%}
National survey of 882 registered voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 13-16, 2016 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-27, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-24, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 27 - December 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 4-8, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13-16, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-25, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 26-28, 2015 are in parentheses.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) 2016 National Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) 2016 National Presidential Poll
  • Donald Trump (R) 51% [49%] (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [51%] (51%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 40% / 51% {-11%}
  • Hillary Clinton 40% / 53% {-13%}
National survey of 3,462 registered voters was conducted July 21-22, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 1.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 16, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 10, 2016 are in parentheses.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/USA Today Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

Suffolk University/USA Today Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

If the general election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump, for whom will you vote or lean towards?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44.0%
  • Donald Trump (R) 43.8%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Donald Trump (R) 40%
Ohio’s presidential ballot may include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the general election was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Green Party Jill Stein, or Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom will you vote or lean?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42.6%
  • Donald Trump (R) 38.6%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 4.8%
  • Jill Stein (G) 0.8%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40.8% / 51.4% {-10.6%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 37.6% / 53.4% {-15.8%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 18-20, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Donald Trump (R) 43% (44%) {42%} [43%] (39%) {39%} [38%] (38%) {39%} [42%] (41%) {36%} [36%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (37%) {40%} [39%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [37%] (39%) {41%} [37%] (36%)
  • Some other candidate 11% (13%) {13%} [12%] (11%) {14%} [15%] (18%) {14%} [13%] (15%) {21%} [22%] (22%)
  • Undecided 4% (6%) {5%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted July 18-19, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 12-13, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 5, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 28-29, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-15, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 17-18, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 27-28, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 1, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 22-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Trump has the backing of 78% of Republicans and a slight 38% to 35% lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton earns 76% support among Democrats. The GOP nominee now picks up 16% of the Democratic vote, while 10% of Republicans like Clinton.
Trump is ahead by 13 points among men, while Clinton posts a 10-point lead among women.
Clinton runs strongest among those under 40, but voters in this age group are also far more likely than their elders to prefer some other candidate.
The likely Democratic nominee continues to maintain an overwhelming lead among blacks and is slightly ahead among other minority voters. Trump has a double-digit advantage among whites.
Trump is the choice of 70% of conservatives. Eighty percent (80%) of liberals and moderates by a 45% to 33% margin favor Clinton.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Poll

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (53%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 35% (33%)
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 44% 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
Among Women 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Donald Trump (R) 28%
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Donald Trump (R) 33%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 41% (45%) / 52% (49%) {-11%}
  • Donald Trump 32% (30%) / 61% (65%) {-29%}
Survey of 1,104 New York State voters was conducted July 13-17, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 22-29, 2016 are in parentheses.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2016 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [44%]
  • Donald Trump (R) 43% [37%]
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5% [9%]
  • Jill Stein (G) 1% [4%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 35% / 54% {-19%}
  • Donald Trump 33% / 54% {-21%}
National survey of 688 likely voters was conducted July 14-16, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 15-19, 2016 are in square brackets.

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Michigan 2016 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Michigan 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Donald Trump (R) 39%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 3%
  • Jill Stein (G) 1%
Survey of 1,201 likely voters was conducted July 13-15, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Donald Trump (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 3%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Donald Trump (R) 38%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 2%
Survey of 998 likely voters was conducted July 13-15, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/YouGov Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

CBS News/YouGov Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Donald Trump (R) 40%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 1%
Survey of 1,104 likely voters was conducted July 13-15, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Poll

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party’s candidate, and Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {47%} [54%] (53%) {52%} [48%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (59%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 42% {42%} [41%] (41%) {44%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (48%) {45%} [40%] (35%)
Among Men
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 47% {46%} [47%] (50%) {54%} [57%] (47%) {53%} [49%] (56%) {53%} [46%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {42%} [47%] (45%) {41%} [39%] (48%) {43%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [50%] (57%)
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {53%} [61%] (60%) {62%} [57%] (50%) {55%} [53%] (55%) {60%} [62%] (61%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 38% {38%} [35%] (33%) {34%} [37%] (46%) {40%} [41%] (41%) {37%} [34%] (34%)
Among Whites
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 52% {51%} [52%] (48%) {57%} [57%] (55%) {58%} [54%] (57%) {55%} [50%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {38%} [43%] (44%) {39%} [38%] (40%) {37%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (48%)
Among Non-Whites
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 69% {71%} [81%] (74%) {80%} [72%] (71%) {76%} [72%] (67%) {71%} [75%] (82%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 21% {19%} [14%] (22%) {15%} [22%] (25%) {21%} [25%] (28%) {24%} [21%] (15%) 
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party’s candidate, Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {42%}
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 37% {38%}
  • Gary Johnson (L) 13% {9%}
  • Jill Stein (G) 5% {7%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {42%} [49%] (42%) {44%} / 55% {57%} [49%] (57%) {53%} {-12%}
  • Donald Trump 39% {40%} [41%] (33%) {38%} / 59% {59%} [56%] (65%) {59%} {-20%}
National survey of 872 registered voters was conducted July 13-16, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-27, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-24, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 27 - December 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 4-8, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13-16, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-25, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 26-28, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Survey

If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [51%] (44%) {50%} [50%] (46%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 43% [39%] (46%) {41%} [44%] (43%)
If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, for whom would you vote?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [47%]
  • Donald Trump (R) 38% [37%]
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8% [7%]
  • Jill Stein (G) 5% [3%]
Survey of 816 registered voters was conducted July 11-14, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 20-23, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 16-19, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2015 are in parentheses.

Friday, July 15, 2016

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Missouri 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Missouri 2016 Presidential Poll

The candidates for President are Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein (G) 1%
If you had to choose between just Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 50% (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (39%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
  • Donald Trump 37% (39%) / 56% (49%) {-19%
  • Hillary Clinton 29% (33%) / 64% (59%) {-35%}
Survey of 959 registered voters was conducted July 11-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/-3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 7-9, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Donald Trump (R) 34%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 10%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 37% / 58% {-21%}
  • Donald Trump 29% / 65% {-36%}
Survey of 876 registered voters was conducted July 5-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Donald Trump (R) 38%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 37% / 58% {-21%}
  • Donald Trump 31% / 61% {-30%}
Survey of 907 registered voters was conducted July 5-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (49%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 37% (41%)
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 37% / 58% {-21%}
  • Donald Trump 34% / 61% {-27%}
Survey of 871 registered voters was conducted July 5-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 4-10, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Donald Trump (R) 33%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 13%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 34% / 62% {-28%}
  • Donald Trump 27% / 67% {-40%}
Survey of 794 registered voters was conducted July 5-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Poll Watch: Associated Press-GfK 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Survey of 837 registered voters was conducted July 7-11, 2016.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2016 National Presidential Survey

CBS/NYT 2016 National Presidential Poll

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [47%] (50%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 40% [41%] (40%)
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian would you vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or Gary Johnson?
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36%
  • Donald Trump (R) 36%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 12%
National survey of 1,358 registered voters was conducted July 8-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 13-17, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Donald Trump (R) 44% {42%} [43%] (39%) {39%} [38%] (38%) {39%} [42%] (41%) {36%} [36%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {40%} [39%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [37%] (39%) {41%} [37%] (36%)
  • Some other candidate 13% {13%} [12%] (11%) {14%} [15%] (18%) {14%} [13%] (15%) {21%} [22%] (22%)
  • Undecided 6% {5%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted July 12-13, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 5, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 28-29, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-15, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 17-18, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 27-28, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 1, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 22-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Trump now has the support of 80% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Clinton earns just 72% of the Democratic vote and picks up five percent (5%) of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads by 13 points, but 27% of these voters either like another candidate or are undecided.
Perhaps more troubling for Clinton is that she now trails by 17 points among white voters after the murder last week of five white policemen in Dallas which Trump has attributed to anti-police rhetoric by President Obama, Clinton and others. This is a noticeably wider gap than we have seen previously, while her support among black and other minority voters remains unchanged.
Clinton is now the candidate with the bigger gender gap problem. She leads by eight points among women voters, but Trump posts a 21-point lead among men.
The Republican continues to lead among those 40 and over, but the candidates are now tied among younger voters. Still, those under 40 are also far more likely than their elders to like another candidate or be undecided.
Trump leads among voters in all income groups now except those who earn under $30,000 a year.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Donald Trump (R) 40%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Donald Trump (R) 37%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Survey of 1,318 adults was conducted July 7-8, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [48%] (41%) {43%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 39% [40%] (48%) {48%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Donald Trump (R) 37%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Survey of 822 registered voters was conducted July 5-10, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 23-30, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 26 - September 2, 2015 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (48%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 39% (42%)
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3%
Survey of 848 registered voters was conducted July 5-10, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 4-10, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (54%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 36% (39%)
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2%
Survey of 829 registered voters was conducted July 5-10, 2016.  The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 18-20, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Donald Trump (R) 34%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Donald Trump (R) 29%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Donald Trump (R) 28%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 13%
  • Jill Stein (G) 6%
Survey of 600 registered voters was conducted July 9-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Donald Trump (R) 37%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Donald Trump (R) 32%
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Donald Trump (R) 34%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 10%
  • Jill Stein (G) 4%
Survey of 601 registered voters was conducted July 9-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44.7% {45.8%} [47.1%] (47%) {46.7%} [49.8%] (51.1%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 40.6% {36.9%} [36.6%] (37%) {38.3%} [36.4%] (35.4%)
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43.2%
  • Donald Trump (R) 37.3%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 8.2%
  • Jill Stein (G) 2.4%
Survey of 665 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted July 7-10, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2016 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted March 24-28, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 21-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 13-16, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 5%
  • Jill Stein (G) 3%
  • Other candidate (vol.) 3%
  • Undecided (vol.) 7%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% / 50% {-13%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 24% / 64% {-40%}
Survey of 404 likely voters was conducted July 9-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (50%) {56%} [54%]
  • Donald Trump (R) 39% (41%) {41%} [38%]
Including Third-Party Candidates:
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
  • Donald Trump (R) 35%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 10%
  • Jill Stein (G) 5%
National survey of 1,053 registered voters was conducted July 5-9, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 29 - November 4, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-28, 2015 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 43% (41%) {42%} [42%] (42%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (42%) {43%} [45%] (44%) {45%}
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 48% (50%) {54%} [49%] (47%) {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (33%) {33%} [36%] (38%) {35%}
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (50%) {51%} [53%] (50%) {54%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 39% (34%) {32%} [35%] (37%) {32%}
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 40% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (39%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9% (9%)
  • Jill Stein (G) 3% (4%) 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
  • Donald Trump 38% (35%) {39%} [32%] (36%) {34%} / 57% (60%) {55%} [60%] (56%) {55%} {-19%}
  • Hillary Clinton 31% (41%) {37%} [35%] (41%) {38%} / 65% (56%) {58%} [59%] (54%) {55%} {-34%}
Survey of 982 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted June 30 - July 11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted June 8-19, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 27 - May 8, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 30 - April 4, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25 - October 5, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 7-18, 2015 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 42% (39%) {42%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (47%) {43%} [46%] (41%)
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 50% (45%) {49%} [48%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 29% (41%) {36%} [40%] (34%)
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%) {48%} [51%] (48%)
  • Donald Trump (R) 36% (34%) {35%} [35%] (37%)
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 41% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (42%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7% (7%)
  • Jill Stein (G) 4% (3%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 38% (33%) {37%} [35%] (36%) / 54% (61%) {57%} [57%] (50%) {-16%}
  • Hillary Clinton 35% (39%) {37%} [44%] (37%) / 59% (53%) {57%} [51%] (55%) {-24%}
Survey of 1,015 registered Florida voters was conducted June 30 - July 11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 31% (31%) {32%} [29%] (32%) Republican; 29% (33%) {32%} [33%] (30%) Democrat; 32% (30%) {31%} [32%] (29%) Independent; 7% (6%) {6%} [6%] (9%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted June 8-19, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 27 - May 8, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25 - October 5, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 7-18, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 41% (40%) {43%} [44%] (42%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (40%) {39%} [42%] (43%) {43%}
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 47% (49%) {51%} [53%] (55%) {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%) {36%} [35%] (32%) {37%}
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (48%) {43%} [49%] (53%) {48%}
  • Donald Trump (R) 35% (31%) {36%} [36%] (30%) {32%}
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
  • Donald Trump (R) 37% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (38%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 7% (8%)
  • Jill Stein (G) 6% (3%) 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 35% (35%) {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} / 60% (59%) {62%} [57%] (56%) {54%} {-25%}
  • Donald Trump 34% (32%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {32%} / 59% (59%) {57%} [59%] (58%) {54%} {-25%}
Survey of 955 registered Ohio voters was conducted June 30 - July 11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 30% (34%) {29%} [33%] (32%) {30%} Democrat; 30% (27%) {30%} [33%] (28%) {27%} Republican; 34% (33%) {34%} [26%] (32%) {35%} Independent; 6% (7%) {7%} [7%] (7%) {8%} Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted June 8-19, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 27 - May 8, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 16-20, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25 - October 5, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 7-18, 2015 are in curly brackets.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Poll Watch: Monmouth University Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Donald Trump (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Gary Johnson (L) 6%
  • Jill Stein (G) 1%
  • Someone else 2%
  • Undecided 6%
Among Men
  • Donald Trump (R) 56%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 29%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Donald Trump (R) 33%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump (R) 33% / 51% {-18%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% / 56% {-24%}
Survey of 401 likely voters was conducted July 8-11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.