Monday, July 25, 2016

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Poll

Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic Party’s candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 48% (42%) {42%} [41%] (41%) {44%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (48%) {45%} [40%] (35%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 45% (49%) {47%} [54%] (53%) {52%} [48%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (59%)
Among Men
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 52% (47%) {46%} [47%] (50%) {54%} [57%] (47%) {53%} [49%] (56%) {53%} [46%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 40% (44%) {42%} [47%] (45%) {41%} [39%] (48%) {43%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [50%] (57%)
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 50% (52%) {53%} [61%] (60%) {62%} [57%] (50%) {55%} [53%] (55%) {60%} [62%] (61%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 44% (38%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {34%} [37%] (46%) {40%} [41%] (41%) {37%} [34%] (34%)
Among Whites
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 57% (52%) {51%} [52%] (48%) {57%} [57%] (55%) {58%} [54%] (57%) {55%} [50%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 36% (39%) {38%} [43%] (44%) {39%} [38%] (40%) {37%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (48%)
Among Non-Whites
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (D) 69% (69%) {71%} [81%] (74%) {80%} [72%] (71%) {76%} [72%] (67%) {71%} [75%] (82%)
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R) 23% (21%) {19%} [14%] (22%) {15%} [22%] (25%) {21%} [25%] (28%) {24%} [21%] (15%) 
Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party’s candidate, Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green Party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?
  • Donald Trump (R) 44% (37%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (42%) {42%}
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9% (13%) {9%}
  • Jill Stein (G) 3% (5%) {7%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Donald Trump 46% (39%) {40%} [41%] (33%) {38%} / 51% (59%) {59%} [56%] (65%) {59%} {-5%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {42%} [49%] (42%) {44%} / 55% (55%) {57%} [49%] (57%) {53%} {-14%}
National survey of 882 registered voters was conducted July 22-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 13-16, 2016 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28 - May 1, 2016 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-27, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-24, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 27 - December 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14-17, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 4-8, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 13-16, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-25, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 26-28, 2015 are in parentheses.

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