Thursday, July 07, 2016

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2016 Presidential Poll

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton?
  • Donald Trump (R) 42% [43%] (39%) {39%} [38%] (38%) {39%} [42%] (41%) {36%} [36%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [39%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [37%] (39%) {41%} [37%] (36%)
  • Some other candidate 13% [12%] (11%) {14%} [15%] (18%) {14%} [13%] (15%) {21%} [22%] (22%)
  • Undecided 5% [5%] (6%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {3%} [5%] (5%)
If the 2016 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
  • Donald Trump (R) 40% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)
  • Gary Johnson (L) 9% (8%)
  • Some other candidate 8%
  • Undecided 4%
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted July 5, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 28-29, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-21, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 14-15, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 6-7, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 1, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 17-18, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 27-28, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 29 - March 1, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 22-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:
Trump holds a 15-point lead among men; Clinton leads by 11 among women. Clinton holds a double-digit lead among those under 40 while continuing to trail among older voters.
Clinton continues to hold a wide lead among blacks. Trump leads by 11 points among whites, while the two are nearly tied among other minority voters.
When Gary Johnson is included:
Among unaffiliated voters, 41% back Trump; 24% back Clinton, and 16% prefer Johnson. Last month, Clinton led Trump 37% to 29% among unaffiliated voters, while Johnson picked up 11% support.
Johnson earns seven percent (7%) of the GOP vote and six percent (6%) of Democrats.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of GOP voters back Trump in a three-way race, while 74% of Democrats support Clinton. Just five percent (5%) of Democrats still prefer some other candidate, down from 15% last month when Bernie Sanders was still running an active campaign against Clinton.
Voters under 40 still give Clinton a sizable lead in a three-way matchup, while Trump leads by double digits among older voters. Fifteen percent (15%) of younger voters like Johnson, compared to just six percent (6%) of middle aged voters and four percent (4%) of senior citizens.
Johnson earns roughly the same level of support from men (9%) and women (10%).

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