Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Mitt Romney 23%
• Michele Bachmann 22%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Other 5%
• Not sure 14%

Second Choice

• Michele Bachmann 18%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Tim Pawlenty 12%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Mitt Romney 10%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Rick Santorum 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Other 4%
• No first choice 14%

First and Second Choice Combined

• Michele Bachmann 40%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Ron Paul 19%
• Tim Pawlenty 18%
• Herman Cain 17%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Rick Santorum 8%
• Jon Huntsman 4%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Michele Bachmann 65% / 12% {+53%}
• Tim Pawlenty 58% / 13% {+45%}
• Rick Perry 43% / 8% {+35%}
• Chris Christie 45% / 14% {+31%}
• Herman Cain 47% / 17% {+30%}
• Paul Ryan 38% / 13% {+25%}
• Sarah Palin 58% / 37% {+21%}
• Ron Paul 53% / 32% {+21%}
• Rick Santorum 38% / 17% {+21%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 38% {+14%}
• John Bolton 21% / 17% {+4%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 43% {+3%}
• Jon Huntsman 22% / 19% {+3%}
• Roy Moore 14% / 12% {+2%}
• Rudy Giuliani 45% / 44% {+1%}
• Gary Johnson 10% / 14% {-4%}
• Buddy Roemer 8% / 13% {-5%}
• Fred Karger 4% / 46% {-42%}

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus?

• Attended in the past 78%
• Will be first caucus 21%

Is your mind made up to support the candidate named as your first choice, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?

• Mind is made up 14%
• Could be persuaded to support another candidate 69%

Regardless of whom you support now, do you think there is at least one Republican candidate in the field who can defeat Barack Obama?

• Yes 86%
• No 7%
• Not sure 7%

As you think about the important qualities in the next president, is it more important for that person to be a fiscal conservative or a social conservative, or is there something else that is more important?

• Fiscal conservative 62%
• Social conservative 20%
• Something else is more important 7%
• Not sure 11%

Survey of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted June 19-22, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

• Romney does better with more moderate respondents. He wins with those with less than a college education (24 percent to Bachmann's 16 percent) and those who earn less than $50,000 a year (29 percent to 16 percent).
• Among those who pick Romney as their first choice, only 15 percent choose Pawlenty as their second choice. Bachmann would get 26 percent of that Romney vote.
• Bachmann rates the strongest with very conservative caucusgoers, along with those who are well-educated and ages 45 to 64.
• Iowans who consider themselves tea party supporters make up 63 percent of respondents, so it fits that Bachmann, founder of the tea party caucus in Congress, is their favorite, at 29 percent. Cain, who has reached out to tea party supporters as an Atlanta-based radio host and candidate, follows with 16 percent. Romney is the favorite for 14 percent.
• Less than half of poll respondents, 46 percent, identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christian. In comparison, 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers in 2008 considered themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll done for the Associated Press and several television networks.
• The race at this early point is close among Iowans who identify themselves as born-again Christians, with 20 percent for Bachmann and 17 percent for Romney.
• Poll respondents are decidedly conservative: 75 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and 83 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on fiscal issues such as the federal budget.

Video: Analyzing the Iowa Poll results
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Des Moines Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich gives her analysis of what the June Iowa Poll results mean.