Morning Consult/Bloomberg News 2024 Swing States Tracking Poll

Morning Consult/Bloomberg News 2024 Swing States Tracking Poll

Arizona

• Donald Trump 48% (49%) {49%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [46%] (46%) {47%}
• Joe Biden 45% (44%) {42%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (42%) {43%}

Georgia

• Donald Trump 47% (47%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {48%}
• Joe Biden 46% (44%) {43%} [42%] (43%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {43%}

Michigan

• Joe Biden 48% (46%) {47%} [45%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {44%}
• Donald Trump 43% (45%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (43%) {44%}

Nevada

• Donald Trump 48% (47%) {51%} [46%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (46%) {43%}
• Joe Biden 45% (47%) {43%} [44%] (42%) {40%} [44%] (43%) {46%}

North Carolina

• Donald Trump 46% (49%) {51%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {47%}
• Joe Biden 43% (42%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {43%}

Pennsylvania

• Donald Trump 51% (48%) {47%} [45%] (49%) {48%} [46%] (47%) {46%}
• Joe Biden 44% (46%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (44%) {45%}

Wisconsin

• Joe Biden 47% (46%) {44%} [46%] (42%) {44%} [41%] (46%) {44%}
• Donald Trump 44% (47%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {49%} [45%] (47%) {46%}

Survey of 4,902 registered voters (781 in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania, and 695 in Wisconsin) was conducted July 1-5, 2024. The overall margin of error is +/- 1 percentage point (+/-4% in AZ, +/-3% in GA, +/-4% in MI, +/-5% in NV, +/-4% in NC, +/-3% in PA, +/-4% in WI). Results from the poll conducted May 7-13, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 8-15, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 8-15, 2024 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-20, 2024 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 16-22, 2024 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 27 - December 6, 2023 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 30 - November 7, 2023 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2023 are in curly brackets. 

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%) 
• Chris Christie (R) 38% (39%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
• Rand Paul (R) 38%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
• Jeb Bush (R) 38%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
• Marco Rubio (R) 36%

National survey of 723 likely voters was conducted June 6-9, 2014. Results from the poll conducted March 7-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52% 
• Chris Christie (R) 39%

Among Independents

• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% 
• Chris Christie (R) 43%

National survey of 678 likely voters was conducted March 7-10, 2014.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Poll

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Christie  50% / 16% {+34%}
• Hillary Clinton 58% / 37% {+21%}
• Marco Rubio 32% / 22% {+10%}
• Rand Paul 32% / 27% {+5%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled the situation in Benghazi where the U.S. consulate was attacked and four Americans killed when she was Secretary of State? 

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 47% 
  

National survey of 1,002 adults was conducted May 31 - June 3. The margin of error is ± 3.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Poll

For each of the following Republicans, please tell me how you would rate them as a person to help the Republican party figure out how to win more races, including the presidency—excellent, good, just fair, or poor.

Chris Christie 

• Excellent 12%
• Good 28%
• Just fair 24%
• Poor 14%

Marco Rubio

• Excellent 13%
• Good 18%
• Just fair 17%
• Poor 18%

Paul Ryan 

• Excellent 14%
• Good 19%
• Just fair 21%
• Poor 30%

Bobby Jindal 

• Excellent 8%
• Good 16%
• Just fair 21%
• Poor 17%

Jeb Bush

• Excellent 7%
• Good 20%
• Just fair 23%
• Poor 33%

For each of the following Democrats, please tell me how you would rate them as a potential presidential nominee for 2016—excellent, good, just fair, or poor.

Hillary Clinton

• Excellent 32%
• Good 27%
• Just fair 19%
• Poor 20%

Joe Biden

• Excellent 8%
• Good 24%
• Just fair 19%
• Poor 45%

Andrew Cuomo

• Excellent 4%
• Good 25%
• Just fair 29%
• Poor 23%

Rahm Emanuel

• Excellent 3%
• Good 16%
• Just fair 22%
• Poor 32%

National survey of 1,000 adults was conducted December 7-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 49% [53%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 43% [40%] (47%)

The candidates are both saying the other is out of touch with average Americans. Who do you think is more out of touch?

• Mitt Romney 49% [55%]
• Barack Obama 40% [36%]

For each of the following, please tell me which candidate do you think would be best:

In understanding your problems and struggles

• Barack Obama 51% [55%]
• Mitt Romney 38% [35%]

In creating jobs

• Mitt Romney 47%
• Barack Obama 45%

In handling immigration

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 42%

In appearing regularly on your TV or computer screen for the next four years

• Barack Obama 48% [54%]
• Mitt Romney 39% [34%]

On health care

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 43%

On women's issues

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 34%

On improving the economic situation for the middle class

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 44%

On making the U.S. energy independent

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 43%

On dealing with gasoline prices

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Barack Obama 39%

On reviving the housing market

• Mitt Romney 44%
• Barack Obama 44%

Do you think Mitt Romney’s background as a private equity executive does or does not make him better prepared to create jobs as president?

• Does make him better prepared 49% [45%]
• Does not make him better prepared 43% [49%]

I’m going to mention some things the presidential candidates have said they would do if elected. For each, please tell me if you are confident or skeptical they will make this happen.

Barack Obama has said if re-elected he will cut the budget deficit without raising taxes on middle-class Americans

• Confident 36%
• Skeptical 62%

Mitt Romney has said he will cut income tax rates for individuals and corporations without raising the federal budget deficit, by reducing tax breaks that primarily benefit the wealthy

• Confident 42%
• Skeptical 55%

Which candidate do you think is running the more negative campaign?

• Mitt Romney 44%
• Barack Obama 38%

Survey of 789 likely voters was conducted September 21-24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% Democrat; 36% Republican; 21% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted June 15-18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 8-11, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 53% (47%)
• Mitt Romney 40% (47%)

(Among Obama Voters) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as very strong, fairly strong, just somewhat strong, or not strong?

• Very strong 51%
• Fairly strong 25%
• Just somewhat strong 18%
• Not strong 6%

(Among Romney Voters) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as very strong, fairly strong, just somewhat strong, or not strong?

• Very strong 35%
• Fairly strong 27%
• Just somewhat strong 26%
• Not strong 12%

The candidates are both saying the other is out of touch with average Americans. Who do you think is more out of touch— Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?

• Mitt Romney 55%
• Barack Obama 36%

Which candidate do you think would be best— Barack Obama or Mitt Romney:

In understanding your problems and struggles

• Barack Obama 55%
• Mitt Romney 35%

In getting the economy going

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 43%

In dealing with world leaders

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 36%

In appearing regularly on your TV or computer screen for the next four years

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 34%

As a seatmate on a long airline flight

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 31%

President Obama announced that the U.S. would halt the deportation of some illegal immigrants if they came here before age 16, have been in the country for five years, have no criminal record, are in school or have a high school diploma or have been honorably discharged from the military. Do you agree or disagree with this new policy?

• Agree 64%
• Disagree 30%

Which of the following would you say is the most important qualification in Mitt Romney’s resume?

• His experience as governor of Massachusetts 41%
• His business experience with Bain Capital 34%
• His leadership of the Olympics 8%
• None of these (Vol) 11%

Do you think Mitt Romney’s background as a private equity executive does or does not make him better prepared to create jobs as president?

• Does make him better prepared 45%
• Does not make him better prepared 49%

Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to elect a corporate CEO as president?

• Good idea 44%
• Bad idea 40%

Survey of 734 likely voters was conducted June 15-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 8-11, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Survey on Obama Immigration Policy

Bloomberg/Selzer Poll on President Obama's Immigration Policy

President Obama announced that the U.S. would halt the deportation of some illegal immigrants if they came here before age 16, have been in the country for five years, have no criminal record, are in school or have a high school diploma or have been honorably discharged from the military. Do you agree or disagree with this new policy?

• Agree 64%
• Disagree 30%
• Not sure 6%

Among Independents

• Agree 66%
• Disagree 26%

National survey of 734 likely voters was conducted June 15-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

A majority -- 56 percent -- of likely Republican voters opposed the decision, while almost nine in 10, or 86 percent, of Democrats supported it.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 47%
• Mitt Romney 47%

• Barack Obama 48%
• Ron Paul 43%

• Barack Obama 50%
• Rick Santorum 44%

• Barack Obama 52%
• Newt Gingrich 41%

Survey of 746 likely voters was conducted March 8-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 37%
• Rick Santorum 27%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 11%
• None of these 3%
• Not sure 9%

Which candidate do you think would be best:

In understanding your problems and struggles

• Rick Santorum 29%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Not sure 15%

In being an interesting person to have dinner with

• Newt Gingrich 26%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Ron Paul 20%
• Rick Santorum 19%
• Not sure 12%

In getting the economy going

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Rick Santorum 16%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Not sure 15%

In dealing with world leaders

• Mitt Romney 33%
• Newt Gingrich 29%
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Not sure 15%

In defeating Barack Obama

• Mitt Romney 52%
• Rick Santorum 18%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Not sure 11%

Given the showing by Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum on Super Tuesday, do you think the other candidates should drop out so this would be a two-person race, or should they stay in the race?

• Should drop out 46%
• Should stay in the race 48%

Do you think the Republican nominating process thus far has been too negative, has struck about the right balance, or has been mostly positive?

• Too negative 46%
• Right balance 33%
• Mostly positive 16%

Survey of 377 Republican and GOP-leaning Independent adults was conducted March 8-11, 2012

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 50%
• Barack Obama 40%

Survey of 324 likely voters was conducted November 10-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 51% Independent; 24% Republican; 22% Democrat.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Ron Paul 17%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Herman Cain 8%
• Jon Huntsman 7%
• Rick Perry 3%
• Michele Bachmann 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%

Is your mind made up to support ____________________ or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?

• Mind is made up 29%
• Could be persuaded 60%

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 20% 
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 11% 
• Herman Cain 10%
• Jon Huntsman 6%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Michele Bachmann 4%
• Rick Santorum 2%

I'd like to ask about the general election when the Republican nominee will run against Barack Obama. For each of the current candidates I mention, please tell me if you would definitely vote for that person for president, probably vote for that person, might or might not vote for that person, or would you probably not vote for that person.

Mitt Romney

• Definitely 40%
• Probably 27%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 16%

Ron Paul

• Definitely 31%
• Probably 19%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 33%

Newt Gingrich

• Definitely 27%
• Probably 18%
• Might or might not 12%
• Probably not 41%

Herman Cain

• Definitely 25%
• Probably 15%
• Might or might not 13%
• Probably not 45%

Jon Huntsman

• Definitely 23%
• Probably 13%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 42%

Rick Perry

• Definitely 23%
• Probably 14%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 45%

Michele Bachmann

• Definitely 22%
• Probably 12%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 53%

Rick Santorum

• Definitely 21%
• Probably 10%
• Might or might not 12%
• Probably not 50%

In choosing a candidate, which is more important to you: Social and constitutional issues, such as abortion, gay marriage, and gun ownership OR Fiscal issues, such as government spending, taxes, and the economy?

• Fiscal issues 83%
• Social and constitutional issues 13%

Did you participate in the 2008 Republican primary? (If yes) Two candidates this year also ran in 2008. Did you vote for either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul in 2008, or for some other candidate?

• Yes, voted for Mitt Romney 26%
• Yes, voted for Ron Paul 7%
• Yes, voted for someone else 30%
• No, did not participate in 2008 16%

Survey of 504 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 10-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 55% Independent; 43% Republican; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 43% Moderate; 35% Mostly conservative; 15% Very conservative;  5% Liberal

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

• Herman Cain 20% [23%] (10%)
• Ron Paul 19% [12%] (7%) 
• Mitt Romney 18% [22%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% [7%] (7%)  
• Rick Perry 7% [7%]
• Michele Bachmann 5% [8%] (22%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [5%] (4%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (2%)

Is your mind made up to support ____________________ or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice?

• Mind is made up 29%
• Could be persuaded 60%

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Herman Cain 15%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Rick Perry 11%
• Ron Paul 9% 
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Rick Santorum 6%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

I'd like to ask about the general election when the Republican nominee will run against Barack Obama. For each of the current candidates I mention, please tell me if you would definitely vote for that person for president, probably vote for that person, might or might not vote for that person, or would you probably not vote for that person.

Mitt Romney

• Definitely 45%
• Probably 20%
• Might or might not 15%
• Probably not 18%

Newt Gingrich

• Definitely 44%
• Probably 19%
• Might or might not 11%
• Probably not 24%

Ron Paul

• Definitely 44%
• Probably 20%
• Might or might not 12%
• Probably not 22%

Herman Cain

• Definitely 45%
• Probably 16%
• Might or might not 13%
• Probably not 24%

Rick Perry

• Definitely 40%
• Probably 18%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 30%

Rick Santorum

• Definitely 40%
• Probably 15%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 31%

Michele Bachmann

• Definitely 38%
• Probably 16%
• Might or might not 10%
• Probably not 34%

Jon Huntsman

• Definitely 34%
• Probably 14%
• Might or might not 9%
• Probably not 39%

In choosing a candidate, which is more important to you: Social and constitutional issues, such as abortion, gay marriage, and gun ownership OR Fiscal issues, such as government spending, taxes, and the economy?

• Fiscal issues 71%
• Social and constitutional issues 24%

Did you participate in the 2008 Republican caucuses? (If yes) Two candidates this year also ran in 2008. Did you vote for either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul in 2008, or for some other candidate?

• Yes, voted for Mitt Romney 14%
• Yes, voted for Ron Paul 9%
• Yes, voted for someone else 27%
• No, did not participate in 2008 31%

Survey of 503 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted November 10-12, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42% Mostly conservative; 33% Very conservative; 21% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 23-26, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Washington Post-Bloomberg 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Washington Post-Bloomberg 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 24% {22%}
• Herman Cain 16% {4%}
• Rick Perry 13% {26%}
• Ron Paul 6% {8%}
• Michele Bachmann 4% {9%}
• Newt Gingrich 3% {4%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {2%}
• Jon Huntsman 0% {1%}

Survey of 391 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted October 6-9, 2011 by Selzer & Co.  The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination

• Rick Perry 26%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Michele Bachmann 9%
• Sarah Palin 8%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Newt Gingrich 4%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• None of these 6%
• Not sure 10%

General Election

• Barack Obama 48% 
• Mitt Romney 43%

Note: Among respondents who said they are likely to vote in 2012, Romney leads Obama, 48 percent to 45 percent.  

• Barack Obama 49%
• Rick Perry 40%

Note: Among respondents who said they are likely to vote in 2012, Obama leads Perry, 48 percent to 45 percent.

I'd like to mention some major political figures. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to answer, just say so.

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 21% {22%} [22%] (21%)
• Mostly favorable 29% {32%} [33%] (31%)
• Mostly unfavorable 19% {19%} [19%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 28% {23%} [22%] (24%)
• Not sure 3% {4%} [4%] (4%)

Mitt Romney

• Very favorable 10% {8%}
• Mostly favorable 32% {29%}
• Mostly unfavorable 23% {20%}
• Very unfavorable 15% {11%}
• Not sure 20% {32%}

Herman Cain

• Very favorable 7% {7%}
• Mostly favorable 15% {11%}
• Mostly unfavorable 13% {9%}
• Very unfavorable 14% {6%}
• Not sure 51% {67%}

Ron Paul

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 24%
• Mostly unfavorable 23%
• Very unfavorable 18%
• Not sure 27%

Rick Perry

• Very favorable 11%
• Mostly favorable 21%
• Mostly unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 25%
• Not sure 27%

Jon Huntsman

• Very favorable 3% {3%}
• Mostly favorable 14% {10%}
• Mostly unfavorable 18% {9%}
• Very unfavorable 14% {5%}
• Not sure 51% {73%}

Rick Santorum

• Very favorable 4%
• Mostly favorable 13%
• Mostly unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 18%
• Not sure 48%

Michele Bachmann

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 20%
• Mostly unfavorable 19%
• Very unfavorable 29%
• Not sure 24%

Newt Gingrich

• Very favorable 7% {6%} [8%]
• Mostly favorable 21% {19%} [20%]
• Mostly unfavorable 24% {27%} [18%]
• Very unfavorable 31% {24%} [22%]
• Not sure 17% {24%} [32%]

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 7% {10%} [9%] (9%)
• Mostly favorable 19% {21%} [19%] (24%)
• Mostly unfavorable 22% {22%} [22%] (24%)
• Very unfavorable 44% {36%} [38%] (33%)
• Not sure 8% {11%} [12%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 42% / 38% {+4%}
• Barack Obama 50% / 47% {+3%}
• Herman Cain 22% / 27% {-5%}
• Ron Paul 32% / 41% {-9%}
• Rick Perry 32% / 41% {-9%}
• Jon Huntsman 17% / 32% {-15%}
• Rick Santorum 17% / 35% {-18%}
• Michele Bachmann 28% / 48% {-20%}
• Newt Gingrich 28% / 55% {-27%}
• Sarah Palin 26% / 66% {-40%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 49%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing:


With the economy

• Approve 33%
• Disapprove 62%

With the budget deficit

• Approve 30%
• Disapprove 62%

With creating jobs

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 57%

With negotiating with the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 52%

With health care

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 53%

With the situation in Libya

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 35%

With terrorism

• Approve 65%
• Disapprove 26%

In the 2012 election, do you anticipate you will definitely vote for President Obama, consider voting for another candidate, or definitely vote for another candidate?

• Definitely Obama 29%
• Consider voting for another candidate 21%
• Definitely vote for another candidate 43%

Are you better off or worse off than you were at the beginning of 2009?

• Better off 27%
• Worse off 44%
• About the same (vol.) 28%

Are you mostly happy with the current slate of Republican candidates, or do you wish some other candidate would get in the race? (Asked only of those who would consider or definitely vote for a candidate other than Obama)

• Mostly happy 42%
• Wish another candidate would get in race 47%

Do you think Barack Obama is the best candidate to face the Republican nominee in 2012 or would you like to see another candidate try for the Democratic nomination? (Asked only of Democrats and independents who lean toward Democrats)

• Obama is best candidate 67%
• Would like another candidate to try 30%

I’m going to mention some things some Republican candidates have said or done. For each, please tell me if it would make you more inclined or less inclined to support the candidate or if it would not matter. (Full sample plus oversample of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents)


Wants to dramatically cut the size of the federal government

• More inclined 55%
• Less inclined 26%
• Would not matter 15%

Supports reducing regulations on the private sector

• More inclined 42%
• Less inclined 31%
• Would not matter 19%

Says the tax system should be overhauled with three tax brackets at 8, 14, and 23 percent and eliminate all deductions

• More inclined 39%
• Less inclined 34%
• Would not matter 15%

Says no tax increase is acceptable even in exchange for 10 times as much in spending cuts

• More inclined 29%
• Less inclined 46%
• Would not matter 16%

Opposes gay marriage

• More inclined 28%
• Less inclined 45%
• Would not matter 25%

Says there should be less separation between church and state

• More inclined 27%
• Less inclined 52%
• Would not matter 18%

Says science is not settled on whether human activity is the cause of global warming

• More inclined 25%
• Less inclined 45%
• Would not matter 24%

Says corporations are people

• More inclined 25%
• Less inclined 43%
• Would not matter 23%

Says evolution is an unproven theory

• More inclined 20%
• Less inclined 50%
• Would not matter 25%

Says virtually all abortions should be illegal no matter the circumstances

• More inclined 20%
• Less inclined 64%
• Would not matter 12%

Says the Environmental Protection Agency should be abolished

• More inclined 19%
• Less inclined 66%
• Would not matter 11%

Wants to abolish the Federal Reserve

• More inclined 15%
• Less inclined 60%
• Would not matter 15%

Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry has called Social Security a Ponzi scheme, which is a fraud, and said it is a "monstrous lie" because young people will pay into the system but not be able to collect benefits. Do you agree or disagree?

• Agree 46%
• Disagree 50%

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has proposed to eliminate taxes on capital gains, dividends and interest income for taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of less than $200,000 a year as part of his plan to create new jobs. Do you favor or oppose that?

• Favor 60%
• Oppose 31%

Who do you blame most for what’s gone wrong in Washington—President Obama, the Republicans in Congress, or the Democrats in Congress? (Asked only of those who express negative views of elected officials in Washington)

• Republicans in Congress 45%
• President Obama 20%
• Democrats in Congress 19%

Who do you think has laid out a better vision for a successful economic future for the U.S.—President Obama or the Republicans?

• President Obama 43%
• Republicans 41%

President Barack Obama has proposed a package of tax cuts, spending on public works and aid to local governments that will cost an estimated $447 billion. Do you think that will or will not help lower the unemployment rate?

• Will help 40%
• Will not help 51%

Should the new supercommittee focus more on raising taxes on Americans earning more than $250,000 or more on cutting spending on entitlement programs such as Medicare to meet its goal of trimming an additional $1.5 trillion from the federal debt over the next decade?

• Raising taxes 51%
• Cutting entitlement programs 35%

In your view, is the tea party today a mostly positive or mostly negative force in American politics?

• Mostly positive 37%
• Mostly negative 52%

Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? (If yes) Do you consider yourself a strong supporter, or just a supporter?

• Strong supporter 7%
• Yes, just a supporter 20%
• No, not a supporter 67%

Turning to the health care bill passed last year, what is your opinion of the law?

• It should be repealed 34%
• It may need small modifications, but we should see how it works 48%
• It should be left alone 12%

Survey of 997 adults, including a subsample of 545 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted September 9-12, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among all adults; +/- 4.2 percentage points among .  Party ID breakdown: 29% {32%} [30%] Democrat; 23% {27%} [22%] Republican; 45% {39%} [44%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted June 17-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.

Political Capital: Tim Pawlenty on Debt Ceiling Talks

Pawlenty on Debt Ceiling Discussions

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 51%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing:


With bringing jobs to New Jersey

• Approve 37%
• Disapprove 48%

With cutting state government

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 46%

With relations with unions

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 47%

With tax policy

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 55%

With environmental issues

• Approve 33%
• Disapprove 38%

With public education

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 54%

A lot of things can happen between now and November of 2013 when Governor Christie would potentially be on the ballot to be re-elected as governor. But if that election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Governor Christie, probably vote for him, probably vote for another candidate or definitely vote for another candidate, or would you likely not vote?

• Definitely vote for Christie 23%
• Probably vote for Christie 16%
• Probably vote for another candidate 14%
• Definitely vote for another candidate 37%
• Would not vote 6%

Since Governor Christie took office in January of 2010, has your opinion of him gotten better or gotten worse, or has it not changed?

• A lot better 16%
• A little better 9%
• Not changed 29%
• A little worse 12%
• A lot worse 33%

I’m going to mention some things Governor Christie has done or is trying to do as governor. For each, please tell me if you favor or oppose the action.


Cancelled funding for a commuter rail tunnel to New York City

• Favor 41%
• Oppose 51%

Used a state helicopter to attend his son’s baseball game

• Favor 21%
• Oppose 70%

Eliminated property tax credits

• Favor 28%
• Oppose 57%

Cut 1.7 billion dollars in the state education budget

• Favor 31%
• Oppose 65%

Proposed a plan to require public employees to pay for 30% of their health care insurance premiums

• Favor 52%
• Oppose 43%

Has cut regulations on business by a third with the goal of attracting new businesses to New Jersey

• Favor 59%
• Oppose 31%

Has enacted a cap on property tax rates

• Favor 62%
• Oppose 28%

Has proposed ending seniority rules for teachers that required the newest teachers to be the first to be laid off

• Favor 44%
• Oppose 50%

Introduced merit pay for teachers

• Favor 63%
• Oppose 26%

Let a surcharge on corporate business taxes expire so businesses would pay less in state taxes

• Favor 39%
• Oppose 52%

Vetoed an extension of a so-called “millionaires” tax surcharge on income over $500,000

• Favor 33%
• Oppose 58%

In general, in debates about the budget between Governor Christie and public employee unions, do you side with Governor Christie or with the public employee unions?

• Public employee unions 50%
• Governor Christie 38%

I have a couple of questions about health insurance and public employees. Governor Christie is proposing that all state employees be required to pay an average of $3,600 per year. Is it your sense this would mean on average public employees would be contributing more, less, or about the same as private sector employees contribute to health insurance premiums?

• More 24%
• Less 23%
• About the same 38%

Some have described this health insurance proposal as a strong-arm tactic to remove health insurance benefits from collective bargaining with public employee unions, while others see it as an honest move to cut expenses and make public employees more responsible for health care costs. How about you—do you see it more as a strong-arm tactic, or more as an honest move to cut costs?

• Honest move to cut costs 52%
• Strong-arm tactic 42%

If the vote for president were today and the candidates were Barack Obama for the Democrats and Chris Christie for the Republicans, for whom would you vote?

• Barack Obama 56%
• Chris Christie 33%

At any time since 2009, have you considered yourself a supporter of Chris Christie? (If yes)
How would you describe yourself now?

• Yes, I still support him as much as I ever did 27%
• Yes, I still support him but not as much as before 4%
• Yes, some days I support him, some days I don’t 11%
• Yes, he disappointed me and I no longer support him 2%
• Yes, I am angry and now actively oppose him 2%
• Never supported him 53%

Regardless of any party affiliation, do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement?

• Yes 23%
• No 67%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 59% / 37% {+22%}
• Frank Lautenberg 40% / 25% {+15%}
• Bob Menendez 33% / 23% {+10%}
• Chris Christie 43% / 53% {-10%}

Survey of 1,302 adults was conducted June 20-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 29% Democrat; 23% Republican; 44% Independent.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Favorability Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Favorability Survey

I'd like to mention some major political figures. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to answer, just say so.

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 22% [22%] (21%)
• Mostly favorable 32% [33%] (31%)
• Mostly unfavorable 19% [19%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 23% [22%] (24%)
• Not sure 4% [4%] (4%)

Mitt Romney

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 29%
• Mostly unfavorable 20%
• Very unfavorable 11% 
• Not sure 32%

Chris Christie

• Very favorable 10% [9%]
• Mostly favorable 14% [12%]
• Mostly unfavorable 13% [9%]
• Very unfavorable 6% [8%]
• Not sure 57% [62%]

Herman Cain

• Very favorable 7%
• Mostly favorable 11%
• Mostly unfavorable 9%
• Very unfavorable 6% 
• Not sure 67%

Jon Huntsman

• Very favorable 3%
• Mostly favorable 10%
• Mostly unfavorable 9%
• Very unfavorable 5% 
• Not sure 73%

Tim Pawlenty

• Very favorable 4%
• Mostly favorable 14%
• Mostly unfavorable 14%
• Very unfavorable 6% 
• Not sure 62%

Paul Ryan

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 15%
• Mostly unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 10% 
• Not sure 51%

Newt Gingrich

• Very favorable 6% [8%]
• Mostly favorable 19% [20%]
• Mostly unfavorable 27% [18%]
• Very unfavorable 24%[22%]
• Not sure 24% [32%]

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 10% [9%] (9%)
• Mostly favorable 21% [19%] (24%)
• Mostly unfavorable 22% [22%] (24%)
• Very unfavorable 36% [38%] (33%)
• Not sure 11% [12%] (10%)

Survey of 1,000 adults was conducted June 17-20, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 32% [30%] Democrat; 27% [22%] Republican; 39% [44%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 4-7, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Favorability Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Favorability Survey

I'd like to mention some major economic and political figures. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough to answer, just say so.

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 22% (21%)
• Mostly favorable 33% (31%)
• Mostly unfavorable 19% (20%)
• Very unfavorable 22% (24%)
• Not sure 4% (4%)

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 9% (9%)
• Mostly favorable 19% (24%)
• Mostly unfavorable 22% (24%)
• Very unfavorable 38% (33%)
• Not sure 12% (10%)

Chris Christie

• Very favorable 9%
• Mostly favorable 12%
• Mostly unfavorable 9%
• Very unfavorable 8%
• Not sure 62%

Donald Trump

• Very favorable 10%
• Mostly favorable 27%
• Mostly unfavorable 24%
• Very unfavorable 19%
• Not sure 20%

Scott Walker

• Very favorable 9%
• Mostly favorable 13%
• Mostly unfavorable 12%
• Very unfavorable 16%
• Not sure 50%

Newt Gingrich

• Very favorable 8%
• Mostly favorable 20%
• Mostly unfavorable 18%
• Very unfavorable 22%
• Not sure 32%

Survey of 1,001 adults was conducted March 4-7, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 30% Democrat; 22% Republican; 44% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

More Americans -- 55 percent -- view Obama favorably personally than approve of his job performance. He remains more popular than the Republican Party, at 41 percent, and Democratic Party, at 49 percent. 

Obama’s favorability among Republicans has increased since December, when he struck an $858 billion deal to extend all Bush-era tax cuts, as sought by congressional Republicans, in exchange for measures to promote jobs. He is now viewed favorably by 19 percent of Republicans, up from 14 percent. 

Gingrich is viewed favorably by 28 percent, down from 33 percent in a Bloomberg poll in July. He is doing better with Republicans, although worse with independents than in July. 

Among Republicans, 39 percent hold a favorable impression of real estate developer Donald Trump, while 48 percent of Tea Party supporters feel that way. 

Since December, Sarah Palin has dropped 3 percentage points among Republicans, 7 percentage points among both independents and Tea Party supporters and 3 percentage points among Democrats.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Political Survey

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. Political Survey

If the 2012 election for U.S. President were held today and the candidates were Sarah Palin for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the Democrats, for whom would you vote— Sarah Palin or Barack Obama, or would you likely not vote?

• Barack Obama (D) 51%
• Sarah Palin (R) 35%
• Would likely not vote 10%
• Not sure 4%

Now, I'd like to mention some major political figures and groups. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable.

Barack Obama

• Very favorable 25%
• Mostly favorable 28%
• Mostly unfavorable 18%
• Very unfavorable 26%

Sarah Palin

• Very favorable 11%
• Mostly favorable 27%
• Mostly unfavorable 19%
• Very unfavorable 35%

Hillary Clinton

• Very favorable 23%
• Mostly favorable 41%
• Mostly unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 14%

George W. Bush

• Very favorable 10%
• Mostly favorable 32%
• Mostly unfavorable 25%
• Very unfavorable 30%

The Tea Party

• Very favorable 14%
• Mostly favorable 27%
• Mostly unfavorable 16%
• Very unfavorable 27%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 47%
• Disapprove 48%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing:

With the economy

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 53%

With health care

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 49%

With the budget deficit

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 60%

With creating jobs

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 53%

At any time since 2007, have you considered yourself a supporter of Barack Obama? How would you describe yourself now?

• Yes, I still support him as much as I ever did 31%
• Yes, I still support him but not as much as before 10%
• Yes, some days I support him, some days I don’t 9%
• Yes, he disappointed me and I no longer support him 3%
• Yes, I am angry and now actively oppose him 1%
• Never supported him 45%

Do you think President Obama is too pro-business, too anti-business, or has about the right balance?

• Too pro-business 7%
• Too anti-business 36%
• About the right balance 47%

Which of the following best describes your attitude toward the federal budget deficit?

• It is dangerously out of control and threatens our economic future 55%
• It is a manageable burden that will require some sacrifice down the road 39%
• It will cause no lasting harm 4%

The U.S. Congress is considering whether to renew most or all of the Bush tax cuts that expire at the end of December. In your view, what action would be best for the U.S. economy?

• Extend the tax cuts for all income levels, which is what the Republicans in Congress recommend 34%
• Extend the tax cuts for the middle class but not for the highest-income taxpayers, which is what President Obama recommends 43%
• Let all tax cuts expire as scheduled and return rates to previous levels to help cut the deficit, which is what former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recommends 20%

Turning to the health care law passed earlier this year, what is your opinion of the bill—should it be repealed or not?

• It should be repealed 47%
• It should not be repealed 42%

Survey of 721 likely voters was conducted October 7-10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.