Conan O'Brien Interview with Nate Silver

Gallup's Frank Newport on Fox News Sunday

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Michigan Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 26% {22%} [30%] (37%)
• Mike Huckabee 20% {22%} [14%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% {15%} [16%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 14% {18%} [17%] (24%)
• Ron Paul 7% {10%} [8%] (6%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% {2%}
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {3%}
• Someone else/Undecided 10% {7%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 27% {22%} [29%] (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {18%} [17%] (24%)
• Mike Huckabee 19% {16%} [16%] (8%)
• Sarah Palin 13% {18%} [17%] (26%)
• Ron Paul 8% {11%} [9%] (9%)
• Mitch Daniels 5% {3%}
• Tim Pawlenty 2% {3%}
• Someone else/Undecided 8% {8%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 24% {22%} [30%] (45%)
• Mike Huckabee 22% {27%} [13%] (17%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% {12%} [15%] (7%) 
• Sarah Palin 14% {17%} [17%] (22%)
• Ron Paul 6% {8%} [7%] (3%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {3%}
• Mitch Daniels 3% {2%}
• Someone else/Undecided 13% {11%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 66% {66%} / 20% {18%} {+46%}
• Mike Huckabee 63% {63%} / 20% {20%} {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 64% {64%} / 28% {28%} {+36%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% {52%} / 24% {26%} {+31%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 67% {71%} / 23% {18%} {+44%}
• Sarah Palin 67% {65%} / 27% {27%} {+40%}
• Mike Huckabee 59% {65%} / 24% {24%} {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 58% {59%} / 24% {25%} {+34%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 67% {63%} / 17% {14%} {+50%}
• Mitt Romney 65% {63%} / 16% {18%} {+49%}
• Sarah Palin 60% {63%} / 29% {28%} {+31%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% {44%} / 24% {25%} {+27%}

Survey of 360 Republican primary voters was conducted March 18-20, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% Very conservative; 38% Somewhat conservative; 16% Moderate; 3% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Mike Huckabee 18% (20%) {24%} [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
• Mitt Romney 17% (17%) {14%} [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 16% (15%) {14%} [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (12%) {11%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
• Ron Paul 9% (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%) {8%} [5%]
• Mitch Daniels 4% (4%) {4%} [2%]
• Haley Barbour 1%

Given the same list of choices who would your second choice be for President in 2012?

• Mike Huckabee 19% (20%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (13%)
• Sarah Palin 12% (17%)
• Mitt Romney 9% (12%)
• Tim Pawlenty 7% (4%)
• Ron Paul 4% (6%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% (3%)
• Haley Barbour 4%

Let’s say Mike Huckabee decides not to run and the candidates for President next year were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 20%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Mitch Daniels 5%
• Haley Barbour 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

Let’s say Sarah Palin decides not to run and the candidates for President next year were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 7%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Haley Barbour 3%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

Let’s say neither Mike Huckabee nor Sarah Palin runs for President and the candidates next year were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Newt Gingrich 24%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Haley Barbour 5%
• Rick Santorum 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Jon Huntsman 2%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who’s a Mormon for President or not?

• Willing to vote for Mormon 65%
• Not willing 20%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that voters have health insurance for President?

• Willing to vote for someone who supported insurance mandate 17%
• Not willing 61%

Do you think ACORN will steal the election for Barack Obama next year or not?

• Think ACORN will steal the election 25%
• Think they will not 43%

Do you regularly watch Fox News or not?

• Regularly watch Fox News 69%
• Do not 31%

Would you be willing to vote for someone who’s been divorced three times for President or not?

• Willing to vote for someone who's been divorced three times 45%
• Not willing 30%

Note: PPP erred in this question, as Newt Gingrich (and Rudy Giuliani) have each been divorced twice; not three times.

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sarah Palin 61% (65%) {65%} [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 26% (25%) {26%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+35%}
• Mike Huckabee 56% (58%) {64%} [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 22% (15%) {16%} [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 51% (55%) {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 29% (25%) {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+22%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% (55%) {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 32% (26%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+18%}
• Tim Pawlenty 26% / 19% {+7%}

Survey of 600 national Republican primary voters was conducted March 10-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 40% (41%) Somewhat conservative; 38% (39%) Very conservative; 19% (15%) Moderate; 3% (5%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Rhode Island Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Rhode Island GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Mike Huckabee 15%
• Newt Gingrich 13% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Mike Huckabee 12% 
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Mike Huckabee 21% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 12% 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 15% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Mike Huckabee 9%
• Mitch Daniels 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Ron Paul 5%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 7%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 36%
• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Sarah Palin 10% 
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 73% / 16% {+57%}
• Mike Huckabee 64% / 19% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 28% {+28%}
• Sarah Palin 51% / 36% {+15%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 77% / 15% {+62%}
• Mike Huckabee 67% / 19% {+48%}
• Newt Gingrich 65% / 22% {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 58% / 33% {+25%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 73% / 13% {+60%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 15% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 34% {+12%}
• Sarah Palin 45% / 37% {+8%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 72% / 20% {+52%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 20% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 60% / 27% {+33%}
• Sarah Palin 56% / 37% {+19%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 74% / 12% {+62%}
• Mike Huckabee 68% / 17% {+51%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% / 29% {+24%}
• Sarah Palin 46% / 35% {+11%}

Survey of 250 Rhode Island Republican primary voters was conducted February 16-22, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 57% Republican; 41% Independent/Other; 3% Democrat.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Mike Huckabee 20% {24%} [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
• Mitt Romney 17% {14%} [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {14%} [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {11%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
• Ron Paul 8% {7%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% {4%} [2%]
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {8%} [5%]
• John Thune 1% {1%} [3%]

Given the same list of choices who would your second choice be for President in 2012?

• Mike Huckabee 20%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• John Thune 1%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 58% {64%} [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 15% {16%} [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 65% {65%} [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 25% {26%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 55% {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 25% {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+30%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 26% {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+29%}
• Ron Paul 30% / 37% {-7%}
• Donald Trump 29% / 56% {-27%}

Among Voters Who Think Obama Was Born in the U.S. (28%)

• Mike Huckabee 50% / 20% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 26% {+26%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 40% {+6%}
• Sarah Palin 41% / 52% {-11%}
• Ron Paul 20% / 53% {-33%}
• Donald Trump 27% / 65% {-38%}

Among Voters Who Think Obama Was NOT Born in the U.S. (51%)

• Sarah Palin 83% / 12% {+71%}
• Mike Huckabee 64% / 12% {+52%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 19% {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 55% / 27% {+28%}
• Ron Paul 34% / 34% {0%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 51% {-18%}

Do you think Mitt Romney is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 50%
• Vice president 24%

Do you think Mike Huckabee is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 44%
• Vice president 28%

Do you think Newt Gingrich is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 27%
• Vice president 37%

Do you think Sarah Palin is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 29%
• Vice president 46%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 28%
• No 51%
• Not sure 21%

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters nationwide was conducted February 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 85% Republican; 12% Independent/Other; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% Somewhat conservative; 39% Very conservative; 15% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Birtherism is alive and well within the GOP ranks, and their 2012 nominee preferences tell a story about the difficulty Mitt Romney faces in trying to appeal to an electorate that's a whole lot further out there than he is. 

Birthers make a majority among those voters who say they're likely to participate in a Republican primary next year. 51% say they don't think Barack Obama was born in the United States to just 28% who firmly believe that he was and 21% who are unsure. The GOP birther majority is a new development. The last time PPP tested this question nationally, in August of 2009, only 44% of Republicans said they thought Obama was born outside the country while 36% said that he definitely was born in the United States. If anything birtherism is on the rise. 

How does this impact Romney? Well among the 49% of GOP primary voters who either think Obama was born in the United States or aren't sure, Romney's the first choice to be the 2012 nominee by a good amount, getting 23% to 16% for Mike Huckabee, 11% for Sarah Palin, and 10% for Newt Gingrich. But with the birther majority he's in a distant fourth place at 11%, with Mike Huckabee at 24%, Sarah Palin at 19%, and Newt Gingrich at 14% all ahead of him. 

There is really a remarkable divide in how the birther and non-birther wings of the GOP view Sarah Palin. With the birthers she is a beloved figure, scoring an 83/12 favorability rating. Non-birthers are almost evenly divided on her with 47% rating her positively and 40% unfavorably.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 22% {25%} [24%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% {15%} [21%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 16% {18%} [18%] (18%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% {15%} [17%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 12% {19%}

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 21% {24%} [20%] (26%)
• Sarah Palin 20% {24%} [21%] (19%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {14%} [24%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 13%
• Mike Huckabee 13% {16%} [18%] (12%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%}
• Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 8% {13%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 25% {30%} [36%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 19% {15%} [14%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {18%} [13%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 9% {2%} [9%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {0%}
• Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 20% {33%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 25% {15%} [20%] (30%)
• Mitt Romney 18% {22%} [25%] (25%)
• Sarah Palin 17% {24%} [16%] (21%)
• Mike Huckabee 13% {12%} [17%] (9%)
• Ron Paul 10%
• Mitch Daniels 3% {2%}
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {3%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 9% {19%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 25% {29%} [24%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% {19%} [18%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {11%} [19%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {14%} [22%] (26%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 15% {18%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 21% {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 59% / 22% {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 63% / 27% {+36%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 23% {+33%}

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 75% / 14% {+61%}
• Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
• Newt Gingrich 66% / 15% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 61% / 20% {+41%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 53% / 26% {+27%}
• Mike Huckabee 42% / 32% {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% / 36% {+2%}
• Sarah Palin 39% / 51% {-12%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 24% {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 65% / 29% {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 60% / 27% {+33%}
• Newt Gingrich 58% / 27% {+31%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 62% / 18% {+44%}
• Mitt Romney 57% / 17% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% / 19% {+36%}
• Sarah Palin 61% / 25% {+36%}

Survey of 403 usual California Republican primary voters was conducted January 28-30, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 64% Conservative; 33% Moderate; 3% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

• Mike Huckabee 24% [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
• Mitt Romney 14% [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 14% [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
• Tim Pawlenty 8% [5%]
• Ron Paul 7% [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
• John Thune 1% [3%]

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 25% [14%] (21%) {24%} [21%] (18%) {26%} [28%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 16% [24%] (21%) {22%} [19%] (22%) {21%} [25%] (27%)
• Mitt Romney 14% [15%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (24%) {21%} [34%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% [23%] (22%) {24%} [22%] (20%) {23%}
• Tim Pawlenty 8% [5%]
• Ron Paul 7% [6%] (5%) {3%} [8%] (6%) {7%} (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
• John Thune 1% [3%]

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 20% [20%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (28%) {21%} [26%] (16%)
• Mitt Romney 18% [25%] (33%) {27%} [23%] (25%) {27%} [31%] (35%)
• Newt Gingrich 9% [10%] (9%) {14%} [26%] (12%) {16%}
• Sarah Palin 9% [13%] (7%) {19%} [11%] (14%) {15%} [19%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 8% [4%] (6%) {7%} [4%] (8%) {11%} (9%)
• Tim Pawlenty 8% [4%]
• Mitch Daniels 4% [2%]
• John Thune 1% [3%]

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 18% [11%] (18%) {20%} [17%] (22%) {22%} [25%] (23%)
• Mitt Romney 16% [16%] (19%) {19%} [20%] (23%) {24%} [35%] (32%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% [23%] (20%) {28%} [26%] (17%) {21%}
• Sarah Palin 14% [23%] (20%) {21%} [17%] (20%) {19%} [24%] (19%)
• Tim Pawlenty 9% [6%]
• Ron Paul 8% [6%] (7%) {5%} [9%] (9%) {9%} (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 7% [2%]
• John Thune 1% [2%]

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 30% [20%] (26%) {27%} [26%] (22%) {29%} [30%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 15% [19%] (13%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (28%)
• Mitt Romney 12% [20%] (25%) {25%} [18%] (27%) {22%} [31%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% [16%] (16%) {14%} [19%] (14%) {20%}
• Ron Paul 6% [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {7%} (11%)
• Tim Pawlenty 6% [3%]
• John Thune 1% [3%]
• Mitch Daniels 1% [2%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 64% [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 16% [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+48%}
• Sarah Palin 65% [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 26% [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+39%}
• Newt Gingrich 58% [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 24% [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 52% [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 28% [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+24%}

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 73% [71%] (65%) {69%} [68%] (58%) {69%} [60%] (62%) / 10% [13%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (12%) {9%} [10%] (12%) {+63%}
• Sarah Palin 74% [78%] (77%) {86%} [78%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (80%) / 16% [13%] (10%) {8%} [7%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (9%) {+58%}
• Newt Gingrich 65% [65%] (65%) {72%} [69%] (64%) {64%} / 18% [21%] (18%) {14%} [9%] (11%) {17%} {+47%}
• Mitt Romney 55% [59%] (57%) {58%} [62%] (62%) {57%} [58%] (63%) / 25% [23%] (21%) {19%} [12%] (10%) {18%} [21%] (13%) {+30%} 

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 50% [50%] (62%) {59%} [51%] (50%) {46%} [44%] (48%) / 31% [27%] (21%) {22%} [17%] (22%) {24%} [34%] (25%) {+19%}
• Mike Huckabee 45% [44%] (47%) {44%} [51%] (45%) {27%} [42%] (42%) / 29% [25%] (21%) {22%} [13%] (20%) {25%} [22%] (22%) {+16%}
• Newt Gingrich 42% [38%] (41%) {47%} [46%] (47%) {37%} / 41% [45%] (40%) {31%} [24%] (28%) {31%} {+1%}
• Sarah Palin 43% [44%] (41%) {49%} [46%] (47%) {37%} [40%] (49%) / 50% [44%] (39%) {43%} [35%] (33%) {46%} [44%] (31%) {-7%}

Survey of 515 usual national Republican primary voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 73% [71%] (69%) {72%} [73%] (65%) {72%} [73%] (65%) Conservative; 25% [28%] (26%) {25%} [25%] (32%) {25%] [25%] (34%) Moderate; 3% [1%] (5%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (1%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Primary

PPP (D) Texas 2012 Republican Primary

• Mike Huckabee 25% (20%) {19%} [22%] (29%)
• Sarah Palin 21% (22%) {19%} [17%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% (15%) {23%} [25%]
• Mitt Romney 10% (15%) {17%} [18%] (32%)
• Ron Paul 9% {8%} [8%]
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (3%)
• Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
• Someone else/Undecided 8% (20%)

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 26% (20%) {18%} [23%] (32%)
• Sarah Palin 21% (23%) {21%} [18%] (27%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% (17%) {24%} [28%]
• Ron Paul 9% {7%} [11%]
• Mitt Romney 9% (14%) {18%} [16%] (30%)
• Tim Pawlenty 6% (3%)
• Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
• Someone else/Undecided 7% (18%)

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 23% (16%) {22%} [17%] (22%)
• Sarah Palin 23% (14%) {10%} [14%] (13%)
• Mitt Romney 13% (23%) {15%} [26%] (40%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% (10%) {17%} [15%]
• Ron Paul 11% {9%} [6%]
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (2%)
• Mitch Daniels 0% (1%)
• Someone else/Undecided 13% (25%)

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 25% (19%) {18%} [21%] (27%)
• Sarah Palin 25% (20%) {16%} [18%] (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% (22%) {29%} [27%]
• Mitt Romney 11% (15%) {18%} [17%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 8% {8%} [10%]
• Mitch Daniels 6% (2%)
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%)
• Someone else/Undecided 5% (12%)

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 24% (21%) {20%} [22%] (30%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% (7%) {16%} [22%]
• Sarah Palin 17% (23%) {23%} [16%] (21%)
• Ron Paul 10% {7%} [11%]
• Mitt Romney 10% (16%) {16%} [19%] (31%)
• Tim Pawlenty 6% (2%)
• Mitch Daniels 1% (2%)
• Someone else/Undecided 12% (28%)

If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 24% [18%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% [23%]
• Sarah Palin 17% [17%]
• Ron Paul 10% [8%]
• Mitt Romney 10% [14%]
• Rick Perry 9% [8%]
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
• Sarah Palin 69% / 24% {+45%}
• Rick Perry 65% / 26% {+39%}
• Newt Gingrich 60% / 22% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 27% {+25%}

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 77% / 9% {+68%}
• Sarah Palin 77% / 15% {+62%}
• Rick Perry 70% / 19% {+51%}
• Newt Gingrich 67% / 16% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 54% / 25% {+29%}

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 60% / 25% {+35%}
• Mitt Romney 54% / 29% {+25%}
• Rick Perry 52% / 42% {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 37% {+7%}
• Sarah Palin 45% / 51% {-6%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 71% / 20% {+51%}
• Sarah Palin 71% / 24% {+47%}
• Rick Perry 64% / 29% {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 62% / 28% {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 35% {+17%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 70% / 10% {+60%}
• Sarah Palin 67% / 25% {+42%}
• Rick Perry 65% / 23% {+42%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 17% {+42%}
• Mitt Romney 51% / 21% {+30%}

Survey of 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 75% {75%} [77%] (73%) Conservative; 21% {23%} [22%] (25%) Moderate; 4% {3%} [2%] (2%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 2-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-20, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Michigan GOP Primary 

• Mitt Romney 22% [30%] (37%)
• Mike Huckabee 22% [14%] (12%)
• Sarah Palin 18% [17%] (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% [16%] (16%)
• Ron Paul 10% [8%] (6%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 7%

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 23% [27%] (32%)
• Mike Huckabee 22% [15%] (13%)
• Sarah Palin 20% [19%] (29%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% [19%] (19%)
• Ron Paul 7% [9%] (6%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 6% 

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 22% [36%] (56%)
• Mike Huckabee 20% [11%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 15% [7%] (8%)
• Sarah Palin 12% [14%] (8%) 
• Newt Gingrich 11% [12%] (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 10% 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 22% [29%] (31%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% [17%] (24%)
• Sarah Palin 18% [17%] (26%)
• Mike Huckabee 16% [16%] (8%)
• Ron Paul 11% [9%] (9%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 8%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 27% [13%] (17%)
• Mitt Romney 22% [30%] (45%)
• Sarah Palin 17% [17%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% [15%] (7%) 
• Ron Paul 8% [7%] (3%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 66% / 18% {+48%}
• Mike Huckabee 63% / 20% {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 64% / 28% {+36%}
• Newt Gingrich 52% / 26% {+26%}

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 73% / 14% {+59%}
• Sarah Palin 75% / 17% {+58%}
• Mitt Romney 72% / 15% {+57%}
• Newt Gingrich 60% / 19% {+41%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 53% / 27% {+26%}
• Mike Huckabee 38% / 35% {+3%}
• Newt Gingrich 32% / 43% {-11%}
• Sarah Palin 35% / 56% {-21%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 3-6, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 71% [67%] Conservative; 27% [31%] Moderate; 2% [2%] Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary

• Mitt Romney 25% [24%] (25%)
• Sarah Palin 18% [18%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% [21%] (28%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% [17%] (13%)
• Mike Pence 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 19%

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 24% [20%] (26%)
• Sarah Palin 24% [21%] (19%)
• Mike Huckabee 16% [18%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% [24%] (33%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mike Pence 4%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 13%

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 30% [36%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% [13%] (17%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% [14%] (16%)
• Sarah Palin 2% [9%] (14%)
• Mike Pence 1%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Tim Pawlenty 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 33%

Among Men

• Sarah Palin 24% [16%] (21%)
• Mitt Romney 22% [25%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% [20%] (30%)
• Mike Huckabee 12% [17%] (9%)
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Mike Pence 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 19%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 29% [24%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 19% [18%] (17%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (26%)
• Sarah Palin 11% [19%] (15%)
• Mike Pence 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 18%

Survey of 317 California Republican primary voters was conducted October 29-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida Senatorial Survey

• Marco Rubio 45% [42%] (44%) {46%} [32%] (33%) {33%} [30%]
• Charlie Crist 31% [35%] (30%) {33%} [39%] (39%) {37%} [32%]
• Kendrick Meek 18% [15%] (22%) {18%} [16%] (13%) {17%} [24%]

Among Democrats

• Charlie Crist 47% [51%] (38%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {37%} [27%]
• Kendrick Meek 42% [36%] (50%) {43%} [36%] (33%) {44%} [55%]
• Marco Rubio 7% [6%] (5%) {8%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [5%]

Among Republicans

• Marco Rubio 79% [77%] (85%) {83%} [68%] (69%) {64%} [64%]
• Charlie Crist 17% [19%] (13%) {13%} [22%] (23%) {28%} [30%]
• Kendrick Meek 2% [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {2%} [0%]

Among Independents

• Marco Rubio 42% [38%] (32%) {40%} [25%] (28%) {26%} [29%]
• Charlie Crist 35% [43%] (42%) {45%} [50%] (50%) {51%} [38%]
• Kendrick Meek 13% [9%] (19%) {12%} [10%] (8%) {10%} [15%]

Among Men

• Marco Rubio 46% [45%] (49%) {48%} [39%] (38%) {39%} [36%]
• Charlie Crist 32% [40%] (29%) {36%} [39%] (40%) {36%} [30%]
• Kendrick Meek 17% [9%] (18%) {13%} [12%] (13%) {13%} [21%]

Among Women

• Marco Rubio 45% [39%] (37%) {42%} [25%] (29%) {29%} [25%]
• Charlie Crist 31% [30%] (31%) {31%} [40%] (37%) {38%} [34%]
• Kendrick Meek 20% [22%] (26%) {23%} [19%] (13%) {20%} [27%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Marco Rubio 52% [44%] (48%) {49%} [35%] (35%) {36%} [36%] (32%) {24%} [15%] (14%) / 38% [42%] (34%) {35%} [28%] (24%) {28%} [22%] (14%) {11%} [9%] (11%) {+14%}
• Kendrick Meek 36% [33%] (33%) {29%} [24%] (17%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {20%} [14%] (12%) / 32% [35%] (36%) {39%} [25%] (17%) {13%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [5%] (7%) {+4%}
• Charlie Crist 42% [46%] (45%) {45%} [53%] (49%) {52%} [48%] (52%) {58%} [60%] (60%) / 50% [44%] (47%) {47%} [33%] (35%) {33%} [35%] (36%) {30%} [27%] (28%) {-8%}

Survey of 925 likely voters was conducted October 25-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23-28, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11-16, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 1-7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 8-13, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 12 – 18, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 12-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2-7, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida Gubernatorial Survey

• Alex Sink (D) 44% [45%] (44%) {43%} [33%] (27%) {26%}
• Rick Scott (R) 43% [41%] (45%) {49%} [29%] (29%) {35%}

Among Men

• Alex Sink (D) 43% [44%] (42%) {42%}
• Rick Scott (R) 42% [45%] (48%) {50%}

Among Women

• Alex Sink (D) 44% [46%] (47%) {43%}
• Rick Scott (R) 43% [38%] (41%) {47%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Alex Sink 43% [43%] (42%) {39%} [30%] (25%) {28%} [22%] (24%) {23%} [23%] (25%) / 40% [39%] (37%) {39%} [15%] (15%) {14%} [15%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {+3%}
• Rick Scott 39% [34%] (39%) {41%} [28%] (29%) {31%} / 50% [50%] (46%) {40%} [40%] (30%) {22%} {-11%}

Survey of 925 likely voters was conducted October 25-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20 – 24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-18, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 12-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2-7, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

• Pat Toomey (R) 50% {48%} [50%] (43%) {42%} [42%] (39%) {40%} [38%] (39%)
• Joe Sestak (D) 45% {46%} [43%] (43%) {40%} [34%] (36%) {35%} [35%] (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Toomey 47% {46%} [44%] (35%) {29%} [29%] (26%) {35%} [34%] (34%) / 32% {37%} [31%] (13%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [12%] (10%) {+15%}
• Joe Sestak 40% {45%} [44%] (31%) {32%} [20%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (23%) / 40% {36%} [34%] (20%) {14%} [11%] (6%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {0%}

Survey of 1,244 likely voters was conducted October 25-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 13-17, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-11, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 4-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 30 - April 5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-14, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-28, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 14-19, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut Senatorial Survey

• Richard Blumenthal (D) 53% (54%) {54%} [49%] (51%) [50%] {54%} (55%) [56%] {61%} (64%)
• Linda McMahon (R) 44% (42%) {43%} [46%] (45%) [40%] {37%} (35%) [31%] {28%} (23%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Blumenthal 53% (55%) {57%} [51%] (55%) [57%] {60%} (59%) [61%] {70%} (74%) / 43% (39%) {38%} [41%] (39%) [30%] {28%} (29%) [29%] {18%} (13%) {+10%}
• Linda McMahon 43% (43%) {46%} [42%] (45%) [43%] {43%} (38%) [32%] {36%} (24%) [20%] / 50% (51%) {46%} [43%] (41%) [37%] {37%} (35%) [39%] {26%} (21%) [13%] {-7%}

Survey of 930 likely voters was conducted October 25-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21-26, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 28 - August 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 9-15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 8-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-8, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-14 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut Gubernatorial Survey

• Tom Foley (R) 48% (43%) [42%] {42%} (41%) [31%] {33%}
• Dan Malloy (D) 45% (48%) [49%] {45%} (50%) [46%] {44%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Foley 48% (45%) [41%] {34%} (34%) / 34% (33%) [33%] {25%} (24%) {+14%}
• Dan Malloy 44% (47%) [47%] {39%} (46%) / 41% (34%) [29%] {27%} (21%) {+3%}

Survey of 930 likely voters was conducted October 25-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21-26, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 28 - August 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News Illinois Senatorial Survey 

Senatorial Election

• Mark Kirk (R) 46% {43%} [42%]
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42% {41%} [40%]
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% {7%} [7%]
• Other 2% {2%} [2%]
• Not sure 4% {7%} [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 41% {34%} / 37% {44%} {+4%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 36% {33%} / 55% {52%} {-19%}

Gubernatorial Election

• Bill Brady (R) 44% {44%} [46%]
• Pat Quinn (D) 38% {39%} [36%]
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6% {6%}
• Rich Whitney (G) 4% {4%} [8%]
• Other 2% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 6% {6%} [9%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Brady 43% {42%} / 39% {40%} {+4%}
• Pat Quinn 38% {37%} / 53% {52%} {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46% {45%} [46%]
• Disapprove 47% {47%} [46%]

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt Illinois's economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 27% {31%} [30%]
• Hurt 42% {43%} [36%]
• Not made much of a difference 26% {23%} [28%]

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 22% {24%} [24%]
• Somewhat support 22% {21%} [20%]
• Somewhat oppose 10% {11%} [10%]
• Strongly oppose 31% {32%} [31%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 25, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Survey

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 48% (46%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {40%} [43%] (39%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 37% (38%) {40%} [43%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (46%)
• Other 6% (8%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 9% (8%) {5%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (8%)

Already Voted: 35% (29%) {19%}

• Jerry Brown (D) 47% (50%) {46%}
• Meg Whitman (R) 45% (39%) {44%}
• Other 3% (8%) {7%}
• Undecided 6% (4%) {3%}

Did Not Vote Yet: 65% (71%) {81%}

• Jerry Brown (D) 49% (45%) {47%}
• Meg Whitman (R) 33% (38%) {39%}
• Other 7% (8%) {9%}
• Undecided 11% (10%) {5%}

Lieutenant Governor

• Gavin Newsom (D) 42% (42%) {43%} [42%]
• Abel Maldonado (R) 35% (34%) {37%} [37%]
• Other 8% (9%) {14%} [19%]
• Undecided 15% (15%) {6%} [3%]

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (45%) {46%} [46%] (49%) {46%} [42%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 38% (40%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (47%)
• Other 6% (7%) {6%} [9%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 10% (8%) {4%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (5%)

Already Voted: 35% (29%) {19%}

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (48%) {45%}
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% (43%) {43%}
• Other 3% (5%) {6%}
• Undecided 5% (4%) {6%}

Did Not Vote Yet: 65% (71%) {81%}

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (44%) {47%}
• Carly Fiorina (R) 34% (39%) {44%}
• Other 7% (8%) {6%}
• Undecided 12% (10%) {4%}

On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you certain to vote yes; certain to vote no; or not certain?

• Certain to vote yes 44% (44%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [50%] (50%)
• Certain to vote no 46% (46%) {44%} [41%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (40%)
• Not certain 10% (10%) {8%} [11%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 28% (28%) {31%} [33%] (33%) {36%} [31%] (31%)
• Unfavorable 37% (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {37%} [38%] (37%)

Survey of 587 likely and actual voters was conducted October 26-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% (42%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (42%) Democrat; 32% (34%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 23% (21%) {21%} [22%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (24%) Independent.  Political ideology: 37% (40%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (44%) Moderate; 31% (33%) {31%} [30%] (29%) {30%} [29%] (30%) Conservative; 23% (19%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 21-25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio Gubernatorial Survey

• John Kasich (R) 47% [49%] {51%} (50%) [54%] {38%} (38%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [36%] {38%} (32%)
• Ted Strickland (D) 46% [43%] {41%} (41%) [37%] {43%} (44%) [43%] {44%} (40%) [46%] {43%} (51%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Kasich 47% [43%] {47%} (46%) [47%] {28%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (23%) [22%] {26%} (22%) / 37% [37%] {33%} (30%) [27%] {19%} (10%) [10%] {10%} (7%) [10%] {7%} (7%) {+10%}
• Ted Strickland 45% [43%] {43%} (41%) [36%] {42%} (45%) [46%] {45%} (38%) [43%] {42%} (53%) / 45% [45%] {47%} (47%) [52%] {37%} (32%) [35%] {36%} (37%) [34%] {37%} (25%) {0%}

Survey of 848 likely voters was conducted October 25-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-17, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 22-27, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 21-26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 5-9, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 26 – July 1, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 28 – May 4, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio Senatorial Survey

• Rob Portman (R) 56% [53%] (55%) {55%} [40%] (37%) {37%} [40%] (39%) {31%} [33%] (31%)
• Lee Fisher (D) 37% [36%] (36%) {35%} [42%] (40%) {41%} [37%] (36%) {42%} [37%] (42%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rob Portman 52% [50%] (45%) {44%} [26%] (25%) {25%} [25%] (22%) {20%} [21%] (22%) / 20% [21%] (18%) {20%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [7%] (7%) {7%} [6%] (9%) {+32%}
• Lee Fisher 31% [32%] (30%) {29%} [28%] (27%) {27%} [26%] (25%) {33%} [29%] (37%) / 43% [42%] (44%) {36%} [17%] (13%) {13%} [12%] (15%) {13%} [17%] (13%) {-12%}

Survey of 848 likely voters was conducted October 25-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 22-27, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 21-26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 5-9, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 25 – July 1, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 28 – May 4, 2009 are in parentheses.