Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Poll

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 51%
• Disapprove 44%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jerry Brown is doing as Governor?

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 47%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dianne Feinstein is doing as United States Senator?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 40%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Boxer is doing as United States Senator?

• Approve 38%
• Disapprove 44%

Survey of 530 registered voters was conducted July 13-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID: 49% Democrat; 27% Republican; 24% Independent.  Ideology: 43% Moderate; 29% Conservative; 23% Liberal.

Sens. Barbara Boxer and Kay Bailey Hutchison on CNN State of the Union

Budget Deal Aborted Because Pro-Life GOPers Play Hardball Over Birth Control? [UPDATE: Chuck Todd: 'Safe to Say a Deal Is At Hand']

UPDATE: Deal on riders, total cuts still uncertain - By Jake Sherman, POLITICO

Negotiators close on deal to avert government shutdown - By David Rogers, POLITICO

Congressional Sources: White House Reviewing Terms of Spending Deal - By Susan Davis and Dan Friedman, National Journal

Negotiators ready to table Planned Parenthood measure?

NBC's Chuck Todd reports:

At this hour, it appears that negotiators are prepared to put the fight over federal funding of Planned Parenthood aside for the moment, increasing the chances of a deal to avert a government shutdown. 

One GOP source says "the issue has been resolved," while a Democratic source describes the talks as "almost there" on the so-called 'rider' that has proven to be the biggest and last stumbling block to an agreement. 

Still another source says that the issue is no longer on the table. 

Basically, these sources indicate that negotiators will drop the rider from the current spending bill, thus clearing the way for a deal as long as there is a basic agreement on all other spending matters.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Survey

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 48% (46%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {40%} [43%] (39%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 37% (38%) {40%} [43%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (46%)
• Other 6% (8%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 9% (8%) {5%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (8%)

Already Voted: 35% (29%) {19%}

• Jerry Brown (D) 47% (50%) {46%}
• Meg Whitman (R) 45% (39%) {44%}
• Other 3% (8%) {7%}
• Undecided 6% (4%) {3%}

Did Not Vote Yet: 65% (71%) {81%}

• Jerry Brown (D) 49% (45%) {47%}
• Meg Whitman (R) 33% (38%) {39%}
• Other 7% (8%) {9%}
• Undecided 11% (10%) {5%}

Lieutenant Governor

• Gavin Newsom (D) 42% (42%) {43%} [42%]
• Abel Maldonado (R) 35% (34%) {37%} [37%]
• Other 8% (9%) {14%} [19%]
• Undecided 15% (15%) {6%} [3%]

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (45%) {46%} [46%] (49%) {46%} [42%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 38% (40%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (47%)
• Other 6% (7%) {6%} [9%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 10% (8%) {4%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (5%)

Already Voted: 35% (29%) {19%}

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (48%) {45%}
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% (43%) {43%}
• Other 3% (5%) {6%}
• Undecided 5% (4%) {6%}

Did Not Vote Yet: 65% (71%) {81%}

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% (44%) {47%}
• Carly Fiorina (R) 34% (39%) {44%}
• Other 7% (8%) {6%}
• Undecided 12% (10%) {4%}

On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you certain to vote yes; certain to vote no; or not certain?

• Certain to vote yes 44% (44%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [50%] (50%)
• Certain to vote no 46% (46%) {44%} [41%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (40%)
• Not certain 10% (10%) {8%} [11%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 28% (28%) {31%} [33%] (33%) {36%} [31%] (31%)
• Unfavorable 37% (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {37%} [38%] (37%)

Survey of 587 likely and actual voters was conducted October 26-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% (42%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (42%) Democrat; 32% (34%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 23% (21%) {21%} [22%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (24%) Independent.  Political ideology: 37% (40%) {41%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (44%) Moderate; 31% (33%) {31%} [30%] (29%) {30%} [29%] (30%) Conservative; 23% (19%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 21-25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% (52%) {50%} [49%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% (43%) {42%} [40%] (42%)

Already Voted: 42% (26%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% (48%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 47% (46%)

Did Not Vote Yet: 58% (74%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% (53%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% (41%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Barbara Boxer’s job performance?

• Approve 40% (44%) {46%} [44%] (37%)
• Disapprove 50% (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carly Fiorina?

• Favorable 42% (38%) {34%} [28%] (22%)
• Unfavorable 44% (49%) {42%} [40%] (30%) 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?

• Approve 43% (50%) {46%} [44%] (41%)
• Disapprove 42% (37%) {40%} [43%] (41%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 45% (51%) {53%} [54%] (49%)
• Disapprove 47% (43%) {42%} [39%] (42%)

Survey of 882 likely California voters was conducted October 29-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 44% (47%) {49%} [46%] (46%) Democrat; 37% (34%) {33%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 18% (19%) {18%} [19%] (21%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 42% (47%) {39%} [41%] (43%) Moderate; 37% (30%) {34%} [33%] (34%) Conservative; 21% (23%) {27%} [25%] (23%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Field Research California Senatorial Survey

Field Research California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% {47%} (47%) [45%] {50%} (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 41% {41%} (44%) [44%] {35%} (35%)

Survey of 1,092 likely voters was conducted October 14-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 22 – July 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 9-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-17, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18 – October 5, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% {47%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {45%} [49%] (48%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% {45%} [45%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 3% {3%} [4%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 3% {4%} [4%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {8%} [7%]

With Leaners

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% {48%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% {46%} [46%] (45%) {43%} [48%] (44%)
• Other 2% {3%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Not sure 3% {3%} [3%] (5%) {6%} [3%] (4%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 54% {49%} [53%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (46%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 44% {48%} [43%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%)
• Other 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (5%)
• Not sure 0% {1%} [1%] (6%) {3%} [0%] (5%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (52%) {48%} [48%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% {44%} [41%] (43%) {40%} [45%] (43%)
• Other 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
• Not sure 5% {6%} [4%] (3%) {8%} [5%] (4%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% {47%} [50%] (51%) {54%} [48%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 48% {51%} [50%] (49%) {46%} [52%] (51%)

Already Voted

• Carly Fiorina (R) 50%
• Barbara Boxer (D) 46%
• Other 4%

Did Not Vote Yet

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 5%

Certain to Vote

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 47%
• Other 2%
• Not sure 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 49% {44%} [50%] (47%) {48%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [49%] (43%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {51%} [51%] (51%) {51%} [50%] / 51% {50%} [46%] (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [47%] {-2%}
• Carly Fiorina 44% {47%} [49%] (45%) {47%} [55%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [36%] (44%) {37%} [38%] (40%) {32%} [30%] / 53% {49%} [45%] (48%) {44%} [37%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {39%} [34%] (31%) {40%} [34%] (29%) {35%} [35%] {-9%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 41% {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} Democrat; 36% {34%} [37%] (36%) {37%} Republican; 23% {24%} [20%] (24%) {24%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Fiorina is backed by 83% of Republicans while Boxer earns support from 85% of Democrats. Fiorina now has a 7-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: CNN/Time/Opinion Research California Political Survey

CNN/Time/Opinion Research California Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% [52%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% [43%] (44%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 49% [48%]
• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [45%]

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 54% [58%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 42% [39%]

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 51% [52%] 
• Meg Whitman (R) 44% [43%]

Among Men

• Meg Whitman (R) 49% [47%]
• Jerry Brown (D) 47% [47%]

Among Women

• Jerry Brown (D) 55% [55%]
• Meg Whitman (R) 41% [40%]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 47%

As you may know, Californians will also be asked to vote on several ballot measures this year. One of them, Proposition 19, deals with marijuana. A "yes" vote would allow people over 21 to possess, cultivate or transport marijuana within California. A "no" vote would retain current California laws which make marijuana illegal. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?

• Yes 45%
• No 53%

Survey of 888 likely voters was conducted October 20-26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in square brackets.  Click here to view full results and crosstabs.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Survey

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 46% {47%} [47%] (46%) {40%} [43%] (39%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 38% {40%} [43%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (46%)
• Other 8% {8%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 8% {5%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (8%)

Already Voted: 29% {19%}

• Jerry Brown (D) 50% {46%}
• Meg Whitman (R) 39% {44%}
• Other 8% {7%}
• Undecided 4% {3%}

Lieutenant Governor

• Gavin Newsom (D) 42% {43%} [42%]
• Abel Maldonado (R) 34% {37%} [37%]
• Other 9% {14%} [19%]
• Undecided 15% {6%} [3%]

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 45% {46%} [46%] (49%) {46%} [42%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% {44%} [43%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (47%)
• Other 7% {6%} [9%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 8% {4%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (5%)

Already Voted: 29% {19%}

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% {45%}
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43% {43%}
• Other 5% {6%}
• Undecided 4% {6%}

On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you certain to vote yes; certain to vote no; or not certain?

• Certain to vote yes 44% {48%} [48%] (47%) {47%} [50%] (50%)
• Certain to vote no 46% {44%} [41%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (40%)
• Not certain 10% {8%} [11%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 28% {31%} [33%] (33%) {36%} [31%] (31%)
• Unfavorable 37% {40%} [40%] (41%) {37%} [38%] (37%)

Survey of 594 likely and actual voters was conducted October 21-25, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% {42%} [42%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (42%) Democrat; 34% {35%} [34%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 21% {21%} [22%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (24%) Independent.  Political ideology: 40% {41%} [43%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (44%) Moderate; 33% {31%} [30%] (29%) {30%} [29%] (30%) Conservative; 19% {23%} [21%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 52% {50%} [49%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43% {42%} [40%] (42%)

Already Voted (26%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

Did Not Vote Yet (74%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 53%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Barbara Boxer’s job performance?

• Approve 44% {46%} [44%] (37%)
• Disapprove 46% {46%} [46%] (46%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carly Fiorina?

• Favorable 38% {34%} [28%] (22%)
• Unfavorable 49% {42%} [40%] (30%) 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance?

• Approve 50% {46%} [44%] (41%)
• Disapprove 37% {40%} [43%] (41%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 51% {53%} [54%] (49%)
• Disapprove 43% {42%} [39%] (42%)

Survey of 630 likely voters was conducted October 21-23, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 47% {49%} [46%] (46%) Democrat; 34% {33%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 19% {18%} [19%] (21%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 47% {39%} [41%] (43%) Moderate; 30% {34%} [33%] (34%) Conservative; 23% {27%} [25%] (23%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University California Political Survey

Suffolk University California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 52%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• Other 4%
• Not sure 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 49% / 43% {+6%} 
• Carly Fiorina 34% / 49% {-15%}

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 50% 
• Meg Whitman (R) 42%
• Other 5%
• Not sure 3% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jerry Brown 49% / 39% {+10%} 
• Meg Whitman 32% / 54% {-22%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 52%
• Disapprove 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 60% / 29% {+31%}
• Barack Obama 57% / 37% {+20%}
• Nancy Pelosi 39% / 48% {-9%}
• Arnold Schwarzenegger 32% / 55% {-23%}

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 21-24, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 45% Democrat; 31% Republican; 25% Independent/Other.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News California Political Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% {48%} [47%] (46%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44% {44%} [46%] (44%)
• Other 5% {3%} [3%] (4%)
• Not sure 3% {5%} [4%] (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 45% {43%} / 50% {52%} {-5%}
• Carly Fiorina 39% {37%} / 47% {51%} {-8%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Boxer is doing as senator?

• Approve 41% {42%} [41%] (42%)
• Disapprove 50% {50%} [49%] (50%)

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 50% {48%} [45%] (43%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 41% {43%} [45%] (49%)
• Other 6% {4%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 3% {4%} [6%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jerry Brown 46% {46%} / 49% {50%} {-3%}
• Meg Whitman 37% {39%} / 55% {54%} {-18%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 47% {46%} [45%] (48%)
• Disapprove 46% {46%} [47%] (44%)

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt California’s economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 25% {30%} [25%] (25%)
• Hurt 41% {39%} [37%] (35%)
• No difference 30% {28%} [33%] (34%)

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 22% {22%} [22%]
• Somewhat support 18% {15%} [19%]
• Somewhat oppose 8% {13%} [10%]
• Strongly oppose 36% {34%} [33%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 23, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 18, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: USC/LA Times California Political Survey

USC/LA Times California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% {51%} [44%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 42% {43%} [38%]

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 52% {49%} [44%] (41%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 39% {44%} [38%] (44%)

Survey of 922 likely voters was conducted October 13-20, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-22, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19-26, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 23-30, 2010 are in parentheses.

RightChange Ad: "Call Me Senator"

Poll Watch: Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% [47%] (47%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {45%} [49%] (48%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% [45%] (42%) {41%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 3% [4%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 4% [4%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {8%} [7%]

With Leaners

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% [49%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% [46%] (45%) {43%} [48%] (44%)
• Other 3% [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Not sure 3% [3%] (5%) {6%} [3%] (4%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Carly Fiorina (R) 51% [50%] (49%) {46%} [52%] (51%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% [50%] (51%) {54%} [48%] (49%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 49% [53%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (46%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% [43%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%)
• Other 2% [2%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (5%)
• Not sure 1% [1%] (6%) {3%} [0%] (5%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% [53%] (52%) {48%} [48%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44% [41%] (43%) {40%} [45%] (43%)
• Other 3% [3%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
• Not sure 6% [4%] (3%) {8%} [5%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Carly Fiorina 47% [49%] (45%) {47%} [55%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [36%] (44%) {37%} [38%] (40%) {32%} [30%] / 49% [45%] (48%) {44%} [37%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {39%} [34%] (31%) {40%} [34%] (29%) {35%} [35%] {-2%}
• Barbara Boxer 44% [50%] (47%) {48%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [49%] (43%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {51%} [51%] (51%) {51%} [50%] / 50% [46%] (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [47%] {-6%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 21, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% [43%] (40%) {39%} Democrat; 34% [37%] (36%) {37%} Republican; 24% [20%] (24%) {24%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Fiorina is backed by 89% of Republicans while Boxer earns support from just 75% of Democrats. Boxer now has an 11-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: PPIC California Political Survey

PPIC California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 43% (42%) [39%] {48%} (44%) [48%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 38% (35%) [34%] {39%} (43%) [40%]
• Someone else 6% (6%)
• Don't Know 13% (17%) [22%] {13%} (13%) [12%]

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 44% (37%) [37%] {42%} (39%) [41%]
• Meg Whitman (R) 36% (38%) [34%] {37%} (44%) [36%]
• Someone else 4% (7%)
• Don't Know 16% (18%) [23%] {21%} (17%) [23%]

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California

• Approve 28% (28%) [25%]
• Disapprove 65% (66%) [66%]

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?

• Approve 55% (48%) [50%] {53%}
• Disapprove 40% (48%) [46%] {43%}

Proposition 19 is called the ‘Legalizes Marijuana Under California but Not Federal Law. Permits Local Governments to Regulate and Tax Commercial Production, Distribution, and Sale of Marijuana. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?

• Yes 44% (52%)
• No 49% (41%)

Proposition 23 is called the ‘Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) Requiring Major Sources of Emissions to Report and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions That Cause Global Warming, Until Unemployment Drops to 5.5 Percent or Less for Full Year. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 23?

• Yes 37% (43%)
• No 48% (42%)

Proposition 25 is called the ‘Changes Legislative Vote Requirement to Pass Budget and Budget-related Legislation from Two-Thirds to a Simple Majority. Retains Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 25?

• Yes 49% (48%)
• No 34% (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Democratic Party 47% / 43% {+4%}
• Tea Party movement 27% / 44% {-17%}
• Republican Party 28% / 60% {-32%}

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?

• Controlled by Democrats 48%
• Controlled by Republicans 35%

If control of the Congress switched from the Democrats to the Republicans after November's election, do you think that would be a good thing, a bad thing, or wouldn't it make any difference?

• Good thing 32%
• Bad thing 30%
• Would not make a difference 34%

Survey of 1,067 likely voters was conducted October 10-17, 2010.  The margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 6-20, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 9-16, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Party registration breakdown: 45% (45%) [45%] Democrat; 31% (31%) [31%] Republican; 21% (23%) [22%] Independent.  Political ideology: 10% (9%) [11%] very liberal; 18% (23%) [20%] somewhat liberal; 29% (29%) [30%] middle-of-the-road; 25% (24%) [24%] somewhat conservative; 14% (14%) [13%] very conservative.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Survey

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 47% [47%] (46%) {40%} [43%] (39%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 40% [43%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (46%)
• Other 8% [8%] (8%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 5% [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (8%)

Already Voted (19%)

• Jerry Brown (D) 46%
• Meg Whitman (R) 44%
• Other 7%
• Undecided 3%

Among Democrats

• Jerry Brown (D) 80% [78%] (77%) {66%} [74%] (64%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 11% [12%] (14%) {20%} [16%] (20%)
• Other 3% [6%] (5%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (10%)

Among Republicans

• Meg Whitman (R) 73% [79%] (78%) {82%} [78%] (77%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 15% [15%] (12%) {8%} [10%] (11%)
• Other 8% [6%] (9%) {9%} [5%] (6%)
• Undecided 4% [1%] (2%) {2%} [7%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Meg Whitman (R) 43% [47%] (49%) {59%} [49%] (47%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 37% [35%] (38%) {31%} [33%] (37%)
• Other 14% [15%] (11%) {7%} [11%] (10%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (2%) {3%} [7%] (5%)

Among Moderates

• Jerry Brown (D) 52% [50%] (50%) {44%} [51%] (43%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 34% [37%] (40%) {41%} [37%] (44%)
• Other 10% [11%] (7%) {10%} [6%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% [3%] (3%) {5%} [6%] (9%)

Among Men

• Meg Whitman (R) 45% [47%] (47%) {50%] [50%] (50%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 45% [43%] (44%) {36%} [35%] (37%)
• Other 7% [8%] (7%) {11%} [8%] (7%)
• Undecided 4% [1%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (6%)

Among Women

• Jerry Brown (D) 49% [50%] (49%) {44%} [51%] (42%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 35% [39%] (39%) {45%} [38%] (41%)
• Other 10% [8%] (9%) {7%} [4%] (8%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (3%) {4%} [7%] (10%)

Lieutenant Governor

• Gavin Newsom (D) 43% [42%]
• Abel Maldonado (R) 37% [37%]
• Other 14% [19%]
• Undecided 6% [3%]

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [46%] (49%) {46%} [42%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44% [43%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (47%)
• Other 6% [9%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% [2%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (5%)

Already Voted (19%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 45%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• Other 6%
• Undecided 6%

Among Democrats

• Barbara Boxer (D) 82% [80%] (81%) {79%} [73%] (76%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 11% [11%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%)
• Other 3% [7%] (5%) {4%} [9%] (1%)
• Undecided 4% [2%] (3%) {1%} [5%] (4%)

Among Republicans

• Carly Fiorina (R) 81% [82%] (84%) {91%} [87%] (83%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 11% [11%] (10%) {4%} [10%] (9%)
• Other 7% [6%] (5%) {5%} [0%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% [2%] (1%) {0%} [2%] (4%)

Among Independents

• Carly Fiorina (R) 50% [49%] (47%) {58%} [49%] (49%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 35% [34%] (43%) {35%} [32%] (40%)
• Other 9% [14%] (9%) {5%} [9%] (6%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (1%) {3%} [11%] (5%)

Among Moderates

• Barbara Boxer (D) 52% [53%] (53%) {57%} [45%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% [37%] (37%) {36%} [42%] (40%)
• Other 5% [9%] (8%) {5%} [7%] (2%)
• Undecided 3% [2%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (5%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 47% [48%] (49%) {54%} [52%] (53%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 43% [42%] (45%) {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Other 6% [9%] (4%) {4%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% [1%] (2%) {1%} [4%] (3%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% [51%] (53%) {51%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% [39%] (38%) {42%} [41%] (41%)
• Other 6% [8%] (7%) {5%} [6%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% [2%] (2%) {1%} [6%] (6%)

On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you certain to vote yes; certain to vote no; or not certain?

• Certain to vote yes 48% [48%] (47%) {47%} [50%] (50%)
• Certain to vote no 44% [41%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (40%)
• Not certain 8% [11%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 31% [33%] (33%) {36%} [31%] (31%)
• Unfavorable 40% [40%] (41%) {37%} [38%] (37%)

Survey of 621 likely and actual voters was conducted October 15-18, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% [42%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (42%) Democrat; 35% [34%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 21% [22%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (24%) Independent.  Political ideology: 41% [43%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (44%) Moderate; 31% [30%] (29%) {30%} [29%] (30%) Conservative; 23% [21%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News California Political Survey

Pulse/Rasmussen/Fox News California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 48% [47%] (46%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44% [46%] (44%)
• Other 3% [3%] (4%)
• Not sure 5% [4%] (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Boxer 43% / 52% {-9%}
• Carly Fiorina 37% / 51% {-14%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Boxer is doing as senator?

• Approve 42% [41%] (42%)
• Disapprove 50% [49%] (50%)

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 48% [45%] (43%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 43% [45%] (49%)
• Other 4% [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 4% [6%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jerry Brown 46% / 50% {-4%}
• Meg Whitman 39% / 54% {-15%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 46% [45%] (48%)
• Disapprove 46% [47%] (44%)

Have the policies of the Obama administration helped or hurt California’s economy, or have they not made much of a difference either way?

• Helped 30% [25%] (25%)
• Hurt 39% [37%] (35%)
• No difference 28% [33%] (34%)

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

• Strongly support 22% [22%]
• Somewhat support 15% [19%]
• Somewhat oppose 13% [10%]
• Strongly oppose 34% [33%]

If the 2010 election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19 to legalize marijuana?

• Yes 46%
• No 47%
• Not sure 7%

Which of these contests on the California ballot this year matters the most to you personally -- the governor’s race, the senate race, or Proposition 19 to legalize marijuana?

• Governor’s race 49%
• Senate race 33%
• Proposition 19 10%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 16, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 18, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos California Political Survey

Reuters/Ipsos California Political Survey

Senatorial Election

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [49%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% [45%] (41%)

Gubernatorial Election

• Jerry Brown (D) 48% [50%] (45%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 44% [43%] (39%)

Proposition 23 suspends implementation of air pollution control law (AB 32) requiring major sources of emissions to report and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, until unemployment drops to 5.5 percent or less for a full year. Will you vote 'YES' in favor of the measure; or 'NO' against the measure?

• 'YES' in favor of the measure 35%
• 'NO' against the measure 46%

Survey of 456 likely voters was conducted October 12-14, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 47% Democrat; 42% Republican; 7% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Boxer (D) 47% (47%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {45%} [49%] (48%) {45%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina (R) 45% (42%) {41%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 4% (4%) {6%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [3%] (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 4% (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {8%} [7%]

With Leaners

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% (49%) {47%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 46% (45%) {43%} [48%] (44%)
• Other 2% (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Not sure 3% (5%) {6%} [3%] (4%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Carly Fiorina (R) 50% (49%) {46%} [52%] (51%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 50% (51%) {54%} [48%] (49%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 53% (47%) {46%} [52%] (46%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 43% (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%)
• Other 2% (2%) {4%} [2%] (5%)
• Not sure 1% (6%) {3%} [0%] (5%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 53% (52%) {48%} [48%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 41% (43%) {40%} [45%] (43%)
• Other 3% (2%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
• Not sure 4% (3%) {8%} [5%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Carly Fiorina 49% (45%) {47%} [55%] (46%) {46%} [48%] (44%) {38%} [36%] (44%) {37%} [38%] (40%) {32%} [30%] / 45% (48%) {44%} [37%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {39%} [34%] (31%) {40%} [34%] (29%) {35%} [35%] {+4%}
• Barbara Boxer 50% (47%) {48%} [48%] (46%) {47%} [49%] (43%) {47%} [51%] (48%) {51%} [51%] (51%) {51%} [50%] / 46% (51%) {49%} [50%] (52%) {46%} [47%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [47%] {+4%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 43% (40%) {39%} Democrat; 37% (36%) {37%} Republican; 20% (24%) {24%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Boxer is backed by 84% of Democrats while Fiorina earns support from 85% of Republicans. Fiorina now has an 11-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.