Poll Watch: SurveyUSA California Political Survey

SurveyUSA California Political Survey

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Jerry Brown (D) 47% [47%] (46%) {40%} [43%] (39%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 40% [43%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (46%)
• Other 8% [8%] (8%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
• Undecided 5% [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (8%)

Already Voted (19%)

• Jerry Brown (D) 46%
• Meg Whitman (R) 44%
• Other 7%
• Undecided 3%

Among Democrats

• Jerry Brown (D) 80% [78%] (77%) {66%} [74%] (64%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 11% [12%] (14%) {20%} [16%] (20%)
• Other 3% [6%] (5%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (10%)

Among Republicans

• Meg Whitman (R) 73% [79%] (78%) {82%} [78%] (77%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 15% [15%] (12%) {8%} [10%] (11%)
• Other 8% [6%] (9%) {9%} [5%] (6%)
• Undecided 4% [1%] (2%) {2%} [7%] (6%)

Among Independents

• Meg Whitman (R) 43% [47%] (49%) {59%} [49%] (47%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 37% [35%] (38%) {31%} [33%] (37%)
• Other 14% [15%] (11%) {7%} [11%] (10%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (2%) {3%} [7%] (5%)

Among Moderates

• Jerry Brown (D) 52% [50%] (50%) {44%} [51%] (43%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 34% [37%] (40%) {41%} [37%] (44%)
• Other 10% [11%] (7%) {10%} [6%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% [3%] (3%) {5%} [6%] (9%)

Among Men

• Meg Whitman (R) 45% [47%] (47%) {50%] [50%] (50%)
• Jerry Brown (D) 45% [43%] (44%) {36%} [35%] (37%)
• Other 7% [8%] (7%) {11%} [8%] (7%)
• Undecided 4% [1%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (6%)

Among Women

• Jerry Brown (D) 49% [50%] (49%) {44%} [51%] (42%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 35% [39%] (39%) {45%} [38%] (41%)
• Other 10% [8%] (9%) {7%} [4%] (8%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (3%) {4%} [7%] (10%)

Lieutenant Governor

• Gavin Newsom (D) 43% [42%]
• Abel Maldonado (R) 37% [37%]
• Other 14% [19%]
• Undecided 6% [3%]

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Barbara Boxer (D) 46% [46%] (49%) {46%} [42%] (45%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 44% [43%] (43%) {48%} [47%] (47%)
• Other 6% [9%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% [2%] (2%) {1%} [5%] (5%)

Already Voted (19%)

• Barbara Boxer (D) 45%
• Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• Other 6%
• Undecided 6%

Among Democrats

• Barbara Boxer (D) 82% [80%] (81%) {79%} [73%] (76%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 11% [11%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%)
• Other 3% [7%] (5%) {4%} [9%] (1%)
• Undecided 4% [2%] (3%) {1%} [5%] (4%)

Among Republicans

• Carly Fiorina (R) 81% [82%] (84%) {91%} [87%] (83%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 11% [11%] (10%) {4%} [10%] (9%)
• Other 7% [6%] (5%) {5%} [0%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% [2%] (1%) {0%} [2%] (4%)

Among Independents

• Carly Fiorina (R) 50% [49%] (47%) {58%} [49%] (49%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 35% [34%] (43%) {35%} [32%] (40%)
• Other 9% [14%] (9%) {5%} [9%] (6%)
• Undecided 6% [3%] (1%) {3%} [11%] (5%)

Among Moderates

• Barbara Boxer (D) 52% [53%] (53%) {57%} [45%] (52%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% [37%] (37%) {36%} [42%] (40%)
• Other 5% [9%] (8%) {5%} [7%] (2%)
• Undecided 3% [2%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (5%)

Among Men

• Carly Fiorina (R) 47% [48%] (49%) {54%} [52%] (53%)
• Barbara Boxer (D) 43% [42%] (45%) {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Other 6% [9%] (4%) {4%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% [1%] (2%) {1%} [4%] (3%)

Among Women

• Barbara Boxer (D) 49% [51%] (53%) {51%} [47%] (49%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 40% [39%] (38%) {42%} [41%] (41%)
• Other 6% [8%] (7%) {5%} [6%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% [2%] (2%) {1%} [6%] (6%)

On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you certain to vote yes; certain to vote no; or not certain?

• Certain to vote yes 48% [48%] (47%) {47%} [50%] (50%)
• Certain to vote no 44% [41%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (40%)
• Not certain 8% [11%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 31% [33%] (33%) {36%} [31%] (31%)
• Unfavorable 40% [40%] (41%) {37%} [38%] (37%)

Survey of 621 likely and actual voters was conducted October 15-18, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% [42%] (43%) {47%} [44%] (42%) Democrat; 35% [34%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (33%) Republican; 21% [22%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (24%) Independent.  Political ideology: 41% [43%] (42%) {46%} [46%] (44%) Moderate; 31% [30%] (29%) {30%} [29%] (30%) Conservative; 23% [21%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8-11, 2010 are in parentheses.