Poll Watch: Rasmussen Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

• Pat Toomey (R) 48% [47%] {47%} (47%) <47%> [45%] {46%} (45%) <45%> [45%] {45%} (42%) <42%> [47%] {42%} (43%) <43%> [44%] {37%} (43%)
• Joe Sestak (D) 45% [43%] {37%} (38%) <37%> [39%] {37%} (39%) <38%> [39%] {38%} (46%) <40%> [36%] {37%} (35%) <35%> [38%] {38%} (35%)

With Leaners

• Pat Toomey (R) 50% [48%] {49%} (49%) <49%> [48%] {48%}
• Joe Sestak (D) 46% [44%] {39%} (40%) <41%> [42%] {40%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Pat Toomey (R) 52% [52%] {55%} (57%) <53%> [57%] {55%}
• Joe Sestak (D) 48% [48%] {45%} (43%) <47%> [43%] {45%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Toomey 55% [55%] {54%} (54%) <57%> [56%] {56%} (57%) <56%> [53%] {55%} (56%) <51%> [54%] {53%} (57%) <57%> [51%] {52%} (54%) / 40% [39%] {36%} (34%) <33%> [34%] {30%} (30%) <29%> [31%] {30%} (25%) <36%> [29%] {33%} (28%) <27%> [29%] {27%} (26%) {+15%}
• Joe Sestak 51% [48%] {43%} (45%) <47%> [43%] {44%} (48%) <50%> [51%] {49%} (52%) <50%> [38%] {40%} (33%) <37%> [36%] {37%} / 46% [46%] {48%} (44%) <42%> [48%] {44%} (42%) <35%> [40%] {40%} (33%) <37%> [39%] {38%} (42%) <37%> [38%] {34%} {+5%}

How would you rate the job Ed Rendell has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 18% [17%] {14%} (14%) <19%> [12%] {13%} (14%) <16%> [14%] {16%} <13%> [13%] {14%} (14%) <14%> [11%] {9%}
• Somewhat approve 23% [26%] {26%} (28%) <26%> [27%] {26%} (28%) <26%> [26%] {28%} <27%> [29%] {33%} (30%) <29%> [28%] {28%}
• Somewhat disapprove 23% [21%] {20%} (19%) <21%> [23%] {29%} (24%) <25%> [27%] {23%} <25%> [24%] {25%} (22%) <27%> [21%] {24%}
• Strongly disapprove 35% [35%] {38%} (36%) <32%> [37%] {31%} (35%) <32%> [33%] {32%} <33%> [32%] {27%} (32%) <29%> [38%] {37%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly favor 28% [30%] {25%} (27%) <26%> [25%] {26%} (26%) <25%> [26%] {28%} (27%) <26%> [29%] {32%} (28%) <28%> [27%] {32%} (29%)
• Somewhat favor 18% [17%] {14%} (19%) <21%> [17%] {17%} (20%) <20%> [21%] {20%} (20%) <24%> [17%] {16%} (16%) <18%> [23%] {19%} (22%)
• Somewhat oppose 10% [6%] {12%} (7%) <11%> [10%] {11%} (9%) <12%> [13%] {11%} (13%) <8%> [12%] {11%} (11%) <14%> [10%] {10%} (12%)
• Strongly oppose 43% [45%] {48%} (46%) <40%> [48%] {45%} (45%) <42%> [40%] {41%} (39%) <39%> [42%] {40%} (43%) <39%> [38%] {38%} (35%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 41% [43%] {45%} (44%) Democrat; 39% [40%] {37%} (39%) Republican; 20% [17%] {17%} (17%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 14, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 29, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 6, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Toomey now has the support of 86% of Pennsylvania Republicans, while 82% of the state’s Democrats favor Sestak. Toomey leads by 16 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.