Poll Watch: Rasmussen Massachusetts Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Massachusetts Gubernatorial Survey

• Deval Patrick (D) 43% [44%] {43%} (42%) [39%] {38%} (41%) [45%] {35%} (35%) [33%]
• Charlie Baker (R) 42% [37%] {39%} (38%) [34%] {32%} (34%) [31%] {27%} (32%) [28%]
• Tim Cahill (I) 11% [14%] {11%} (11%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [14%] {23%} (19%) [25%]

With Leaners

• Deval Patrick (D) 46% [47%] {47%} (45%) [44%] 
• Charlie Baker (R) 44% [42%] {42%} (42%) [42%] 
• Tim Cahill (I) 6% [6%] {6%} (5%) [8%]

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Charlie Baker (R) 47% [44%] {42%} (44%) [39%]
• Deval Patrick (D) 46% [49%] {52%} (51%) [50%]
• Tim Cahilll (I) 7% [7%] {6%} (5%) [10%]

Certain to Vote

• Charlie Baker (R) 45% [44%]
• Deval Patrick (D) 45% [46%]
• Tim Cahill (I) 6% [5%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Charlie Baker 53% [47%] {52%} (50%) [48%] {36%} (46%) [41%] {43%} (46%) [42%] / 44% [50%] {40%} (34%) [36%] {46%} (35%) [34%] {32%} (26%) [29%] {+9%}
• Deval Patrick 49% [53%] {55%} (52%) [48%] {51%} (52%) [53%] {49%} (43%) [42%] / 49% [45%] {43%} (46%) [50%] {48%} (47%) [47%] {48%} (55%) [56%] {0%}
• Tim Cahill 33% [32%] {37%} (40%) [40%] {44%} / 63% [61%] {54%} (45%) [44%] {38%} {-30%}

How would you rate the job Deval Patrick has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 24% [23%] {23%} (19%) [21%] {18%} (14%) [12%] {12%} (14%) [11%]
• Somewhat approve 23% [28%] {25%} (30%) [25%] {32%} (34%) [36%] {34%} (25%) [23%]
• Somewhat disapprove 15% [13%] {17%} (18%) [19%] {13%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (24%) [27%]
• Strongly disapprove 37% [35%] {34%} (32%) [33%] {36%} (30%) [31%] {33%} (37%) [37%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 28% [32%] {34%} (34%) [33%] {37%} (33%) [42%] {37%} (34%) [31%]
• Somewhat approve 22% [21%] {20%} (20%) [23%] {19%} (23%) [21%] {19%} (20%) [24%]
• Somewhat disapprove 7% [9%] {11%} (10%) [9%] {10%} (11%) [11%] {11%} (11%) [9%]
• Strongly disapprove 41% [36%] {34%} (35%) [34%] {35%} (32%) [26%] {33%} (35%) [35%]

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted October 27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 41% [40%] {42%} (41%) Democrat; 21% [19%] {21%} (18%) Republican; 37% [41%] {37%} (41%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 28, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 23, 2009 are in square brackets. 

Inside the numbers:

Baker has the backing of 82% of the state’s Republicans, while 75% of Democrats support Patrick. Baker leads Patrick among voters not affiliated with either party by 21 points. Cahill earns single-digit support from all three groups.