Poll Watch: Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

• Joe Manchin (D) 46% {41%} [44%] (41%) {43%} [47%] (48%) {48%} [51%]
• John Raese (R) 45% {48%} [46%] (48%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {42%} [35%]
• Other 3% [4%] (4%) {5%} [2%] (4%) {4%} [5%]
• Not sure 7% [7%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [9%]

With Leaners

• Joe Manchin (D) 49% {43%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [50%] (50%)
• John Raese (R) 46% {50%} [49%] (50%) {48%} [43%] (45%)
• Other 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Not sure 5% [3%] (5%) {4%} [5%] (3%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Joe Manchin (D) 51% {48%} [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (52%)
• John Raese (R) 49% {51%} [50%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Manchin 72% {65%} [70%] (69%) {70%} [71%] (70%) {73%} [74%] (80%) / 26% {33%} [28%] (29%) {26%} [27%] (29%) {26%} [24%] (18%) {+46%}
• John Raese 47% {55%} [48%] (56%) {50%} [53%] (54%) {60%} [49%] / 49% {43%} [49%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {31%} [32%] {-2%}

How would you rate the job Joe Manchin has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 38% {35%} [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (35%) {36%} [38%] (40%)
• Somewhat approve 36% {34%} [33%] (36%) {37%} [33%] (32%) {34%} [33%] (37%)
• Somewhat disapprove 15% {16%} [17%] (19%) {16%} [18%] (19%) {18%} [20%] (14%)
• Strongly disapprove 9% {15%} [10%] (12%) {14%} [12%] (13%) {11%} [8%] (9%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 22% {16%} [22%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (22%) {17%} [17%] (18%)
• Somewhat approve 11% {14%} [15%] (12%) {13%} [16%] (14%) {12%} [15%] (17%)
• Somewhat disapprove 11% {10%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [12%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (13%)
• Strongly disapprove 55% {59%} [52%] (56%) {53%} [52%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (51%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 26, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 44% {48%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [45%] Democrat; 37% {35%} [38%] (38%) {37%} [37%] Republican; 19% {17%} [17%] (17%) {17%} [17%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Raese is backed by 73% of West Virginia Republicans, while Manchin is supported by 71% of Democrats. Raese and Manchin are tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.