Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 50% [47%] (46%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% [39%] (45%)
• David Patterson (L) 5% [8%]
• Undecided 3% [6%] (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitch McConnell 44% [45%] (42%) / 49% [48%] (46%) {-5%}
• Alison Lundergan Grimes 42% [41%] (39%) / 47% [43%] (24%) {-5%}

Survey of 556 likely voters was conducted October 26-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 6, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Libertarian David Patterson. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Mitch McConnell (R) 50% {44%} 
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% {40%}
• David Patterson (L) 3% {7%}

Horse race, with Patterson supporters and undecideds asked if they lean McConnell or Grimes:

• Mitch McConnell (R) 53% {47%} [46%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (45%) 
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44% {42%} [48%] (45%) {44%} [42%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (41%)

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 57% {52%} [47%] (45%) {49%} [47%] (49%) [49%] (49%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% {39%} [49%] (46%) {41%} [42%] (39%) [44%] (38%)

Among Women

• Mitch McConnell (R) 49% {43%} [45%] (43%) {41%} [40%] (38%) [41%] (41%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 46% {45%} [48%] (43%) {46%} [41%] (51%) [46%] (44%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?

• Approve 39% {37%} {37%} [31%] {40%} [44%] (36%)
• Disapprove 50% {54%} {51%} [61%] {51%} [47%] (54%) 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39% {41%} [31%] [34%] (28%) / 49% {45%} [37%] [24%] (22%) {-10%}

Survey of 1,503 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2014. Party ID: 52% {52%} [52%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (53%) [50%] (51%) Democrat; 36% {38%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [39%] (37%) [35%] (39%) Republican; 12% {10%} [11%] (8%) {12%} [9%] (11%) [15%] (10%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 29% {28%} [31%] [31%] Moderate; 28% {25%} [24%] [27%] Somewhat conservative; 17% {20%} [19%] [19%] Very conservative; 15% {17%} [16%] [14%] Somewhat liberal; 11% {10%} [10%] [9%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 7-10, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-22, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-2, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {44%} [44%] (46%) {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [46%] (42%) {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 3% {5%} [3%] (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 6% {8%} [7%] (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [45%] (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%}  [44%] (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% {5%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 5% {8%} [7%] (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% {44%} [44%] (44%) {39%} [41%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {43%} [47%] (45%) {39%} [45%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% {6%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 8% {7%} [7%] (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 597 likely voters was conducted October 25-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 15-19, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45% {47%} [47%] (50%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39% {41%} [42%] (46%)
• David Patterson (L) 2% {2%}
• Other 0% {1%} [2%]
• Not sure 14% {9%} [9%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 53% {56%} [52%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 35% {34%} [38%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% {2%}
• Other 0% {1%} [3%]
• Not sure 11% {7%} [7%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% {47%} [46%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 38% {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% {2%}
• Other 0% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 16% {12%} [11%]

Survey of 1,502 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: WKU Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

WKU Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45.4%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41.7%
• David Patterson (L) 5.3%
• Undecided 7.6%

Survey of likely voters was conducted October 6-19, 2014.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% [44%] (46%) {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [46%] (42%) {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% [3%] (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 8% [7%] (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 43% [45%] (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43%  [44%] (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% [4%] (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 8% [7%] (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% [44%] (44%) {39%} [41%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [47%] (45%) {39%} [45%]
• David Patterson (L) 6% [2%] (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% [7%] (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 655 likely voters was conducted October 15-19, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 52% {46%} [48%] (42%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44% {41%} [41%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 2% {7%} [5%] (6%)
• Undecided 3% {6%} [7%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitch McConnell 49% {47%} / 47% {51%} {+2%}
• Alison Lundergan Grimes 46% {42%} / 50% {51%} {-4%}

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 15-16, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1-2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 28-29, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Kentucky voters say they have already made up their minds how they are going to vote, and McConnell leads 55% to 45% among these voters. Among the 24% who still could change their minds, the candidates are tied at 41% apiece, with 17% opting for a third-party candidate or undecided.

Among the 84% of Kentucky voters who say they will definitely vote in this contest, McConnell leads 53% to 44%.

Grimes has the support of 73% of Kentucky Democrats and 16% of the state’s Republicans. McConnell earns 83% backing from his fellow Republicans and 24% of the vote from Democrats. He also has a 21-point lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 50% [45%] (43%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% [45%] (36%)
• Unsure 4% [10%] (12%)

Survey of 1,020 likely voters was conducted October 11-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% [50%] (35%) Democrat; 39% [39%] (47%) Republican; 11% [11%] (18%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%
• David Patterson (L) 3%

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 37%
• David Patterson (L) 3%

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45%
• Mitch McConnell (R) 43%
• David Patterson (L) 3%

Survey of 706 likely voters was conducted October 4-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 43% Democrat; 42% Republican; 13% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 46% (42%) {39%} [43%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% (46%) {41%} [42%]
• David Patterson (L) 3% (5%) {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 7% (8%) {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45% (48%) {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44% (38%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% (6%) {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 7% (8%) {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% (45%) {39%} [45%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% (44%) {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 2% (4%) {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% (7%) {15%} [9%]

Survey of 632 likely voters was conducted September 29 - October 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% [47%] (50%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% [42%] (46%)
• David Patterson (L) 2%
• Other 1% [2%]
• Not sure 9% [9%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 56% [52%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 34% [38%]
• David Patterson (L) 2%
• Other 1% [3%]
• Not sure 7% [7%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% [46%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 39% [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 2%
• Other 1% [1%]
• Not sure 12% [11%]

Survey of 1,689 likely voters was conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Reuters/Ipsos Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 46%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42%
• Another candidate 5%

Survey of 944 likely voters was conducted September 8-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 50% (46%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (49%)
• David Patterson (L) 6%
• Undecided 2% (5%)

Survey of 742 likely voters was conducted September 4 and 7, 2014 for the National Mining Association. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party registration: 56% (56%) Democrat; 40% (40%) Republican; 4% (4%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% (50%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (46%)
• Other 2%
• Not sure 9%

Survey of 2,130 likely voters was conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39%
• David Patterson (L) 8%
• Undecided 6% (8%)

Among Registered Voters

• Mitch McConnell (R) 45% (46%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38% (45%)
• David Patterson (L) 9%
• Undecided 8% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Among Likely Voters

• Alison Lundergan Grimes 41% / 43% {-2%}
• Mitch McConnell 45% / 48% {-3%}

Among Registered Voters

• Alison Lundergan Grimes 39% (39%) / 41% (24%) {-2%}
• Mitch McConnell 43% (42%) / 48% (46%) {-5%}

Survey of 1,184 registered voters, including 691 likely voters, was conducted September 2-4, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.7% among likely voters. Party ID (among registered voters): 37% (40%) Democrat; 32% (30%) Republican; 30% (27%) Independent.  Party registration (among registered voters): 54% (52%) Democrat; 37% (34%) Republican; 9% (14%) Independent. Ideology (among registered voters): 38% (33%) Conservative; 33% (34%) Moderate; 13% (17%) Liberal; 12% (11%) Very conservative; 4% (5%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 6, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

CNN/ORC Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 50%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 46%

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 55%
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 52%
• Mitch McConnell (R) 45%

Survey of 671 likely voters was conducted August 28 - September 1, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 46% [48%] (42%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% [41%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 7% [5%] (6%)
• Undecided 6% [7%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitch McConnell 47% / 51% {-4%}
• Alison Lundergan Grimes 42% / 51% {-9%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 1-2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 28-29, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

Grimes has the support of 71% of Kentucky Democrats. McConnell has the backing of 74% of the state’s GOP voters and leads by five points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

McConnell is viewed favorably by 47% of Kentucky voters and unfavorably by 51%. This includes 23% with a Very Favorable opinion and 34% with a Very Unfavorable one. For Grimes, favorables are 42%, unfavorable 51%. This includes 20% who view her Very Favorably and 31% who share a Very Unfavorable opinion of the challenger.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 46% {41%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% {39%} [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 5% {7%} [4%]
• Undecided 8% {13%} [7%]

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38% {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 6% {7%} [6%]
• Undecided 8% {11%} [6%]

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% {39%} [45%]
• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% {39%} [41%]
• David Patterson (L) 4% {7%} [3%]
• Undecided 7% {15%} [9%]

Survey of 569 likely voters was conducted August 25-27, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 47% {42%} [44%] Democrat; 37% {41%} [43%] Republican; 15% {18%} [11%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% [46%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (45%) 
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% [48%] (45%) {44%} [42%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (41%)

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 52% [47%] (45%) {49%} [47%] (49%) [49%] (49%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39% [49%] (46%) {41%} [42%] (39%) [44%] (38%)

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% [48%] (43%) {46%} [41%] (51%) [46%] (44%)
• Mitch McConnell (R) 43% [45%] (43%) {41%} [40%] (38%) [41%] (41%)

If the candidates for Senate were Republican Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Libertarian David Patterson, who would you vote for?

• Mitch McConnell (R) 44% 
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 40%
• David Patterson (L) 7%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?

• Approve 37% {37%} [31%] {40%} [44%] (36%)
• Disapprove 54% {51%} [61%] {51%} [47%] (54%) 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% [31%] [34%] (28%) / 45% [37%] [24%] (22%) {-4%}

Survey of 991 likely voters was conducted August 7-10, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 52% [52%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (53%) [50%] (51%) Democrat; 38% [37%] (38%) {36%} [39%] (37%) [35%] (39%) Republican; 10% [11%] (8%) {12%} [9%] (11%) [15%] (10%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 28% [31%] [31%] Moderate; 25% [24%] [27%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [19%] [19%] Very conservative; 17% [16%] [14%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [10%] [9%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 20-22, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-2, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Mitch McConnell (R) 47% [42%] (42%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% [43%] (46%)
• Undecided 8% [7%] (12%)

Among Men

• Mitch McConnell (R) 49% [42%] (46%)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43% [41%] (43%)
• Undecided 8% [6%] (11%)

Among Women

• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% [45%] (49%)
• Mitch McConnell (R) 46% [41%] (37%)
• Undecided 8% [9%] (14%)

What if Libertarian David Patterson enters the race? Who would you vote for?

• Mitch McConnell (R) 41%  [42%]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39%  [43%]
• David Patterson (L) 7% [4%]
• Undecided 13% [7%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Among Registered Voters

• Alison Lundergan Grimes 36% [35%] (26%) / 33% [27%] (27%) {+3%}
• Mitch McConnell 36% [29%] (27%) / 43% [49%] (50%) {-7%}

Survey of 714 registered voters, including 604 likely voters, was conducted July 18-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 4.1 percentage points among likely voters. Party ID (among likely voters): 42% [44%] (51%) Democrat; 41% [43%] (37%) Republican; 18% [11%] (9%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 - February 4, 2014 are in parentheses.