Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 46% [46%] {47%} (46%) [44%] {42%} (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 44% [45%] {46%} (43%) [40%] {38%} (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% [4%] {4%} (5%) [5%] {8%} (8%) [11%] {11%}

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 48% {53%} (49%) [48%] {44%} (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
• Kay Hagan (D) 44% {39%} (42%) [38%] {38%} (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
• Sean Haugh (L) 3% {6%} (6%) [6%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {12%}

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% {54%} (49%) [49%] {45%} (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 40% {40%} (37%) [33%] {32%} (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {37%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 7% {3%} (5%) [4%] {7%} (8%) [12%] {10%}  

Horse race, with Haugh supporters and undecideds asked if they lean Hagan or Tillis:

• Kay Hagan (D) 48% (47%) [46%] {43%} (42%) [42%] {41%} 
• Thom Tillis (R) 46% (44%) [42%] {42%} (39%) [38%] {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Thom Tillis 36% {42%} (37%) [34%] {28%} (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 48% {50%} (49%) [48%] {48%} (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-12%}

Do you approve or disapprove Senator Kay Hagan's job performance?

• Approve 41% (41%) [43%] {42%} (40%) [42%] {38%} (41%) [41%] {41%} (39%) [43%] {44%}
• Disapprove 49% (50%) [48%] {49%} (50%) [46%] {49%} (48%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [49%] {49%}

Survey of 1,333 likely voters was conducted November 1-3, 2014. Party ID: 43% [44%] {46%} (44%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 35% [36%] {34%} (37%) [34%] {31%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 22% [21%] {19%} (19%) [21%] {27%} (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 28-29, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 46% {47%} (46%) [44%] {42%} (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 45% {46%} (43%) [40%] {38%} (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% {4%} (5%) [5%] {8%} (8%) [11%] {11%}

Survey of 738 likely voters was conducted October 30-31, 2014 on behalf of the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Party ID: 44% {46%} (44%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 36% {34%} (37%) [34%] {31%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 21% {19%} (19%) [21%] {27%} (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-29, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Harper Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Thom Tillis, Republican, Kay Hagan, Democrat or Sean Haugh, Libertarian?

• Thom Tillis (R) 46% 
• Kay Hagan (D) 44%
• Sean Haugh (L) 6%
• Not sure 4%

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Thom Tillis, Republican, or Kay Hagan, Democrat?

• Thom Tillis (R) 48% (44%) 
• Kay Hagan (D) 45% (44%)
• Not sure 7% (12%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kay Hagan 49% (37%) / 48% (49%) {+1%}
• Thom Tillis 47% (15%) / 49% (33%) {-2%}

Survey of 511 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.34 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) Democrat; 34% (32%) Republican; 23% (24%) Independent/Other. Ideology: 43% (43%) Conservative; 39% (39%) Moderate; 14% (13%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: YouGov North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

YouGov North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 43.5% (44%) {46%} [42%] (47%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 41.4% (41%) {45%} [43%] (48%)
• Other 3.4% (0%) {1%} [0%]
• Not sure 11.7% (13%) {6%} [10%]

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 47% (44%) {53%} [52%]
• Kay Hagan (D) 38% (41%) {41%} [37%]
• Other 4% (0%) {0%} [0%]
• Not sure 10% (13%) {3%} [5%]

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 49% (47%) {52%} [47%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 36% (38%) {36%} [34%]
• Other 2% (0%) {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 13% (13%) {9%} [15%]

Survey of 1,727 likely voters was conducted October 25-31, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-23, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Thom Tillis (R) 47% [48%] (41%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 46% [43%] (44%)
• Unsure 8% [9%] (15%)

Survey of 1,006 likely voters was conducted October 29-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [39%] (39%) Democrat; 34% [34%] (34%) Republican; 27% [27%] (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 43% (41%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 42% (36%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (6%)

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 46% (44%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 39% (35%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% (6%)

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% (46%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 39% (30%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (6%)

Survey of 909 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (40%) Democrat; 37% (35%) Republican; 24% (19%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CNN/ORC North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 48% (46%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 46% (43%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (7%)

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 53% (46%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 41% (42%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (8%)

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 55% (49%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 39% (40%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (5%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kay Hagan 49% (46%) / 48% (47%) {+1%}
• Thom Tillis 43% (47%) / 50% (40%) {-7%}

Survey of 559 likely voters was conducted October 27-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (34%) Democrat; 32% (30%) Republican; 30% (36%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% [48%] (45%) {40%} [44%] (40%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 46% [46%] (39%) {45%} [45%] (47%) 
• Some other candidate 3% [2%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Undecided 3% [4%] (9%) {9%} [7%] (10%)

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Kay Hagan?

• Very favorable 27% [29%]
• Somewhat favorable 22% [21%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 13% [14%]
• Very unfavorable 36% [32%]
  

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of Thom Tillis?

• Very favorable 22% [22%]
• Somewhat favorable 24% [25%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% [14%]
• Very unfavorable 37% [33%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kay Hagan 49% [50%] / 49% [46%] {0%}
• Thom Tillis 46% [47%] / 49% [47%] {-3%}

Survey of 982 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 5-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

North Carolina has early voting, and 30% of the voters in the state say they already have cast their ballot. Among these voters, Hagan leads 50% to 44%.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Tar Heel voters say they have made up their minds how they are going to vote, and the candidates are tied at 49% apiece among these voters.

Ninety percent (90%) of all voters in the state say they are definitely going to vote in this contest. Tillis is ahead 48% to 46% among this group.

Tillis has the support of 80% of Republicans in North Carolina and leads by 10 points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of the state’s Democrats support Hagan.

Poll Watch: Vox Populi Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Vox Populi Polling (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Thom Tillis (R) 48%
• Kay Hagan (D) 43%
• Undecided 9%

Survey of 615 active voters was conducted October 26-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.95 percentage points. Party ID: 39% Democrat; 36% Republican; 25% Independent/Something else.

Poll Watch: Elon University North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Elon University North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 44.7% (44.9%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 40.7% (40.8%)
• Someone else 6.3% (9.1%)
• Don't know 6.6% (4.6%)

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 48% (50%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 38% (38%)

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 52% (52%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 34% (33%)

Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted October 21-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.74 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 5-9, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% (46%) [44%] {42%} (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 46% (43%) [40%] {38%} (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (5%) [5%] {8%} (8%) [11%] {11%}

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 53% (49%) [48%] {44%} (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
• Kay Hagan (D) 39% (42%) [38%] {38%} (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
• Sean Haugh (L) 6% (6%) [6%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {12%}

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 54% (49%) [49%] {45%} (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 40% (37%) [33%] {32%} (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {37%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 3% (5%) [4%] {7%} (8%) [12%] {10%} 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kay Hagan 46% / 49% {-3%}
• Thom Tillis 42% (37%) [34%] {28%} (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 50% (49%) [48%] {48%} (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-12%}

Survey of 657 likely voters was conducted October 28-29, 2014 for The League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 46% (44%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 34% (37%) [34%] {31%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 19% (19%) [21%] {27%} (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Monmouth University North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 48%
• Thom Tillis (R) 46%
• Sean Haugh (L) 1%
• Undecided 4%

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 49%
• Kay Hagan (D) 45%
• Sean Haugh (L) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 50%
• Thom Tillis (R) 44%
• Sean Haugh (L) 1%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 432 likely voters was conducted October 23-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA/High Point University North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA/High Point University North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 44% (46%) {44%} [46%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 44% (43%) {41%} [43%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% (6%) {7%} [5%]

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 50% (45%) [48%]
• Kay Hagan (D) 37% (41%) [40%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% (7%) [5%]

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 49% (51%) [52%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 39% (40%) [38%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% (4%) [5%]

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kay Hagan is handling her job as United States Senator?

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 52%

Survey of 802 likely and actual voters was conducted October 21-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (41%) {40%} [41%] Democrat; 37% (35%) {32%} [32%] Republican; 22% (23%) {28%} [27%] Independent. Ideology: 44% (38%) {34%} [41%] Conservative; 37% (41%) {45%} [39%] Moderate; 14% (18%) {19%} [16%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 16-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 10-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-10, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 44% {46%} [42%] (47%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 41% {45%} [43%] (48%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 2% {2%} [5%] 
• Other 0% {1%} [0%]
• Not sure 13% {6%} [10%]

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 44% {53%} [52%]
• Kay Hagan (D) 41% {41%} [37%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 2% {3%} [6%] 
• Other 0% {0%} [0%]
• Not sure 13% {3%} [5%]

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% {52%} [47%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 38% {36%} [34%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 2% {2%} [4%] 
• Other 0% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 13% {9%} [15%]

Survey of 1,910 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Thom Tillis (R) 43% (40%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 43% (44%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 7% (7%)
• Undecided 6% (9%)

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 49% (49%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 38% (36%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 6% (7%)
• Undecided 7% (8%)

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 48% (51%)
• Thom Tillis (R) 38% (32%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 8% (7%)
• Undecided 6% (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Thom Tillis 40% (36%) / 44% (47%) {-4%}
• Kay Hagan 41% (42%) / 48% (48%) {-7%}

Survey of 756 likely voters was conducted October 19-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 27 - October 1, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, Kay Hagan, the Democrat, or Sean Haugh, the Libertarian?

• Thom Tillis (R) 42% (41%) {41%} [37%] (41%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 41% (46%) {42%} [44%] (37%)
• Sean Haugh (L) 6% (4%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
• Undecided 9% (7%) {7%} [9%] (10%)

And now suppose only two candidates were running for U.S. Senate. For whom would you vote between: Thom Tillis, the Republican, or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?

• Thom Tillis (R) 44% (43%) {47%} [46%] (48%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 44% (50%) {46%} [48%] (43%)
• Undecided 10% (6%) {5%} [5%] (9%)

Survey of 600 registered voters was conducted October 15-18, 2014 by National Research Inc.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25 and 27-28, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 28-29, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 18-19 and 22, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 46% {44%} [46%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 43% {41%} [43%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 6% {7%} [5%]

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 45% [48%]
• Kay Hagan (D) 41% [40%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 7% [5%]

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 51% [52%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 40% [38%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 4% [5%]

Survey of 568 likely voters was conducted October 16-20, 2014 for WRAL-TV (Raleigh). The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 41% {40%} [41%] Democrat; 35% {32%} [32%] Republican; 23% {28%} [27%] Independent. Ideology: 41% {45%} [39%] Moderate; 38% {34%} [41%] Conservative; 18% {19%} [16%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 10-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9-10, 2014 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Thom Tillis (R) 48% (41%)
• Kay Hagan (D) 43% (44%)
• Unsure 9% (15%)

Survey of 1,022 likely voters was conducted October 16-18, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (39%) Democrat; 34% (34%) Republican; 27% (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

• Kay Hagan (D) 46% [44%] {42%} (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 43% [40%] {38%} (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%}  
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% [5%] {8%} (8%) [11%] {11%}

Among Men

• Thom Tillis (R) 49% [48%] {44%} (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
• Kay Hagan (D) 42% [38%] {38%} (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
• Sean Haugh (L) 6% [6%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {12%}

Among Women

• Kay Hagan (D) 49% [49%] {45%} (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
• Thom Tillis (R) 37% [33%] {32%} (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {37%} 
• Sean Haugh (L) 5% [4%] {7%} (8%) [12%] {10%} 

Horse race, with Haugh supporters asked if they lean Hagan or Tillis

• Kay Hagan (D) 47% [46%] {43%} (42%) [42%] {41%} 
• Thom Tillis (R) 44% [42%] {42%} (39%) [38%] {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sean Haugh 10% [8%] {8%} (7%) / 17% [17%] {17%} (20%) {-7%}
• Thom Tillis 37% [34%] {28%} (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 49% [48%] {48%} (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-12%}

Do you approve or disapprove Senator Kay Hagan's job performance?

• Approve 41% [43%] {42%} (40%) [42%] {38%} (41%) [41%] {41%} (39%) [43%] {44%}
• Disapprove 50% [48%] {49%} (50%) [46%] {49%} (48%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [49%] {49%}

Survey of 780 likely voters was conducted October 16-18, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 44% [45%] {42%} (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 37% [34%] {31%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 19% [21%] {27%} (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, who would you vote for?

• Kay Hagan (D) 44% [46%]
• Thom Tillis (R) 41% [43%]
• Sean Haugh (L) 7% [5%]

What if the only candidates for US Senate were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan? Who would you vote for?

• Thom Tillis (R) 46% [46%] (46%) 
• Kay Hagan (D) 45% [47%] (45%)

Survey of 554 likely voters was conducted October 10-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 40% [41%] (42%) Democrat; 32% [32%] (33%) Republican; 28% [27%] (20%) Independent. Ideology: 45% [39%] (39%) Moderate; 34% [41%] (38%) Conservative; 19% [16%] (17%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 9-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-31, 2014 are in parentheses.