Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Cory Gardner (R) 45% [46%] (46%) {47%} [48%] (44%) {44%}
• Mark Udall (D) 43% [39%] (41%) {41%} [40%] (42%) {45%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 6% [7%] (6%) {8%} [8%] 

Among Independents

• Mark Udall (D) 43% [35%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (43%) {41%}
• Cory Gardner (R) 36% [37%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 13% [19%] (9%) {13%} [15%]  

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 47% [54%] (51%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {53%}
• Mark Udall (D) 38% [33%] (38%) {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 7% [6%] (6%) {9%} [9%]  

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 47% [45%] (45%) {49%} [46%] (49%) {52%} 
• Cory Gardner (R) 44% [39%] (41%) {40%} [43%] (40%) {35%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 5% [8%] (5%) {7%} [7%]  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

• Cory Gardner (R) 46% [49%] (48%) {49%} [52%]
• Mark Udall (D) 45% [41%] (44%) {44%} [42%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 46% [48%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (34%) {30%} / 45% [40%] (42%) {41%} [37%] (31%) {18%} {+1%}
• Mark Udall 44% [43%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%} / 50% [50%] (49%) {49%} [50%] (43%) {38%} {-6%} 

Among Independents

• Mark Udall 45% [38%] (46%) {44%} [40%] (39%) {43%} / 45% [53%] (47%) {48%} [53%] (44%) {36%} {0%}
• Cory Gardner 38% [42%] (48%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {29%} / 50% [42%] (41%) {41%} [40%] (33%) {17%} {-12%}

Among Men

• Cory Gardner 48% [58%] (55%) {52%} [55%] (39%) {40%} / 41% [32%] (39%) {35%} [32%] (26%) {16%} {+7%}
• Mark Udall 39% [36%] (39%) {35%} [37%] (32%) {37%} / 55% [57%] (56%) {56%} [57%] (48%) {47%} {-16%}

Among Women

• Mark Udall 49% [49%] (50%) {49%} [47%] (46%) {49%} / 46% [44%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (38%) {31%} {+3%}
• Cory Gardner 45% [40%] (43%) {42%} [40%] (30%) {21%} / 48% [48%] (44%) {47%} [42%] (35%) {21%} {-3%}

Survey of 815 likely voters was conducted October 28 - November 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% [32%] (32%) {33%} [34%] (29%) {26%} Republican; 28% [27%] (29%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 33% [34%] (32%) {32%} [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 7% [7%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted October 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 15-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are Democrat Mark Udall, Republican Cory Gardner, Libertarian Gaylon Kent, Unity Party of Colorado candidate Bill Hammons, unaffiliated candidate Raul Acosta, and unaffiliated candidate Steve Shogan. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Cory Gardner (R) 48% {46%}
• Mark Udall (D) 45% {43%}
• Gaylon Kent (L) 2% {2%}
• Raul Acosta (I) 1% {1%}
• Bill Hammons (U) 0% {1%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 0% {1%}
• Undecided 3% {7%} 

Horse race, with third-party supporters and undecideds asked if they lean Udall or Gardner: 

• Cory Gardner (R) 50% (48%) {47%} [47%] (43%) {43%} [45%] (40%)
• Mark Udall (D) 47% (48%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (42%)

Among Independents

• Mark Udall (D) 52% (59%) {39%} [44%] (38%) {43%} [43%] (30%) 
• Cory Gardner (R) 41% (38%) {46%} [44%] (45%) {45%} [43%] (38%)

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 55% (54%) {51%} [54%] (53%) {48%} [50%] (45%)
• Mark Udall (D) 42% (43%) {40%} [38%] (38%) {43%} [44%] (42%)

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 51% (53%) {48%} [51%] (49%) {51%} [49%] (43%)
• Cory Gardner (R) 46% (42%) {43%} [41%] (35%) {39%} [40%] (36%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall’s job performance?

• Approve 38% {37%} (36%) {42%} (41%)
• Disapprove 51% {52%} (47%) {45%} (40%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cory Gardner?  

• Favorable 49% (49%) {45%} (34%) {35%} (23%)
• Unfavorable 39% (45%) {42%} (39%) {42%} (25%)

Survey of 739 likely voters was conducted November 1-2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (38%) {37%} [33%] (34%) {31%} [32%] (34%) Republican; 37% (37%) {35%} [34%] (35%) {36%} [36%] (33%) Democrat; 24% (25%) {29%} [34%] (31%) {33%} [32%] (33%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 19-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Cory Gardner (R) 46% (46%) {47%} [48%] (44%) {44%}
• Mark Udall (D) 39% (41%) {41%} [40%] (42%) {45%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 7% (6%) {8%} [8%] 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner (R) 37% (42%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%}
• Mark Udall (D) 35% (40%) {39%} [40%] (43%) {41%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 19% (9%) {13%} [15%]  

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 54% (51%) {53%} [53%] (48%) {53%}
• Mark Udall (D) 33% (38%) {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 6% (6%) {9%} [9%]  

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 45% (45%) {49%} [46%] (49%) {52%} 
• Cory Gardner (R) 39% (41%) {40%} [43%] (40%) {35%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 8% (5%) {7%} [7%]  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

• Cory Gardner (R) 49% (48%) {49%} [52%]
• Mark Udall (D) 41% (44%) {44%} [42%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 48% (49%) {47%} [47%] (34%) {30%} / 40% (42%) {41%} [37%] (31%) {18%} {+8%}
• Mark Udall 43% (44%) {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%} / 50% (49%) {49%} [50%] (43%) {38%} {-7%} 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner 42% (48%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {29%} / 42% (41%) {41%} [40%] (33%) {17%} {0%}
• Mark Udall 38% (46%) {44%} [40%] (39%) {43%} / 53% (47%) {48%} [53%] (44%) {36%} {-15%} 

Among Men

• Cory Gardner 58% (55%) {52%} [55%] (39%) {40%} / 32% (39%) {35%} [32%] (26%) {16%} {+26%}
• Mark Udall 36% (39%) {35%} [37%] (32%) {37%} / 57% (56%) {56%} [57%] (48%) {47%} {-21%}

Among Women

• Mark Udall 49% (50%) {49%} [47%] (46%) {49%} / 44% (42%) {42%} [43%] (38%) {31%} {+5%}
• Cory Gardner 40% (43%) {42%} [40%] (30%) {21%} / 48% (44%) {47%} [42%] (35%) {21%} {-8%}

Survey of 844 likely voters was conducted October 22-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (32%) {33%} [34%] (29%) {26%} Republican; 27% (29%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 34% (32%) {32%} [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 7% (7%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted October 15-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Cory Gardner (R) 46% {47%} [48%] (44%) {44%}
• Mark Udall (D) 41% {41%} [40%] (42%) {45%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 6% {8%} [8%] 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner (R) 42% {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%}
• Mark Udall (D) 40% {39%} [40%] (43%) {41%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 9% {13%} [15%]  

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 51% {53%} [53%] (48%) {53%}
• Mark Udall (D) 38% {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 6% {9%} [9%]  

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 45% {49%} [46%] (49%) {52%} 
• Cory Gardner (R) 41% {40%} [43%] (40%) {35%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 5% {7%} [7%]  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

• Cory Gardner (R) 48% {49%} [52%]
• Mark Udall (D) 44% {44%} [42%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 49% {47%} [47%] (34%) {30%} / 42% {41%} [37%] (31%) {18%} {+7%}
• Mark Udall 44% {42%} [42%] (40%) {43%} / 49% {49%} [50%] (43%) {38%} {-5%} 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner 48% {45%} [43%] (28%) {29%} / 41% {41%} [40%] (33%) {17%} {+7%}
• Mark Udall 46% {44%} [40%] (39%) {43%} / 47% {48%} [53%] (44%) {36%} {-1%} 

Among Men

• Cory Gardner 55% {52%} [55%] (39%) {40%} / 39% {35%} [32%] (26%) {16%} {+16%}
• Mark Udall 39% {35%} [37%] (32%) {37%} / 56% {56%} [57%] (48%) {47%} {-17%}

Among Women

• Mark Udall 50% {49%} [47%] (46%) {49%} / 42% {42%} [43%] (38%) {31%} {+8%}
• Cory Gardner 43% {42%} [40%] (30%) {21%} / 44% {47%} [42%] (35%) {21%} {-1%}

Survey of 974 likely voters was conducted October 15-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 32% {33%} [34%] (29%) {26%} Republican; 29% {29%} [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 32% {32%} [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 7% {6%} [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Cory Gardner (R) 47% [48%] (44%) {44%}
• Mark Udall (D) 41% [40%] (42%) {45%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 8% [8%] 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner (R) 42% [42%] (40%) {43%}
• Mark Udall (D) 39% [40%] (43%) {41%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 13% [15%]  

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 53% [53%] (48%) {53%}
• Mark Udall (D) 34% [34%] (36%) {38%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 9% [9%]  

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 49% [46%] (49%) {52%} 
• Cory Gardner (R) 40% [43%] (40%) {35%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 7% [7%]  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

• Cory Gardner (R) 49% [52%]
• Mark Udall (D) 44% [42%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 47% [47%] (34%) {30%} / 41% [37%] (31%) {18%} {+6%}
• Mark Udall 42% [42%] (40%) {43%} [42%] (44%) / 49% [50%] (43%) {38%} [35%] (38%) {-7%} 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner 45% [43%] (28%) {29%} / 41% [40%] (33%) {17%} {+4%}
• Mark Udall 44% [40%] (39%) {43%} [37%] (39%) / 48% [53%] (44%) {36%} [40%] (41%) {-4%} 

Among Men

• Cory Gardner 52% [55%] (39%) {40%} / 35% [32%] (26%) {16%} {+17%}
• Mark Udall 35% [37%] (32%) {37%} [36%] (38%) / 56% [57%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {-21%}

Among Women

• Mark Udall 49% [47%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (50%) / 42% [43%] (38%) {31%} [24%] (30%) {+7%}
• Cory Gardner 42% [40%] (30%) {21%} / 47% [42%] (35%) {21%} {-5%}

Survey of 988 likely voters was conducted October 8-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 33% [34%] (29%) {26%} Republican; 29% [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 32% [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 6% [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 - February 2, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Cory Gardner (R) 48% (44%) {44%}
• Mark Udall (D) 40% (42%) {45%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 8% 

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner (R) 42% (40%) {43%}
• Mark Udall (D) 40% (43%) {41%} 
• Steve Shogan (I) 15%  

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 53% (48%) {53%}
• Mark Udall (D) 34% (36%) {38%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 9%  

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 46% (49%) {52%} 
• Cory Gardner (R) 43% (40%) {35%}
• Steve Shogan (I) 7%  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

• Cory Gardner (R) 52%
• Mark Udall (D) 42%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 47% (34%) {30%} / 37% (31%) {18%} {+10%}
• Mark Udall 42% (40%) {43%} [42%] (44%) / 50% (43%) {38%} [35%] (38%) {-8%}

Among Independents

• Cory Gardner 43% (28%) {29%} / 40% (33%) {17%} {+3%}
• Mark Udall 40% (39%) {43%} [37%] (39%) / 53% (44%) {36%} [40%] (41%) {-13%} 

Among Men

• Cory Gardner 55% (39%) {40%} / 32% (26%) {16%} {+23%}
• Mark Udall 37% (32%) {37%} [36%] (38%) / 57% (48%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {-20%}

Among Women

• Mark Udall 47% (46%) {49%} [49%] (50%) / 43% (38%) {31%} [24%] (30%) {+4%}
• Cory Gardner 40% (30%) {21%} / 42% (35%) {21%} {-2%}

Survey of 1,211 likely voters was conducted September 10-15, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 34% (29%) {26%} Republican; 27% (27%) {28%} Democrat; 33% (37%) {37%} Independent; 6% (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 - February 2, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Udall (D) 46%
• Cory Gardner (R) 42%
• Steve Shogan (I) 3%
• Gaylon Kent (L) 2%
• Undecided 7%

Among Men

• Cory Gardner (R) 47%
• Mark Udall (D) 42%
• Steve Shogan (I) 4%
• Gaylon Kent (L) 2%
• Undecided 4%

Among Women

• Mark Udall (D) 49%
• Cory Gardner (R) 36%
• Steve Shogan (I) 2%
• Gaylon Kent (L) 2%
• Undecided 11% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Cory Gardner 36% / 36% {0%}
• Mark Udall 40% / 47% {-7%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Senator Mark Udall is doing?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 46%

Survey of 664 likely voters was conducted September 8-10, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Democrat; 33% Republican; 33% Independent. Ideology: 44% Moderate; 32% Conservative; 23% Liberal. Gender: 52% Male; 48% Female.