Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll 

The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are Democrat Mark Pryor, Republican Tom Cotton, Green party candidate Mark Swaney, and Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Tom Cotton (R) 49% [43%] (41%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 41% [38%] (39%)
• Mark Swaney (G) 3% [3%] (4%)
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 1% [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% [13%] (14%)

Horse race, with third-party supporters and undecideds asked if they lean Pryor or Cotton:

• Tom Cotton (R) 51% [45%] (43%) {42%} [44%] (41%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 45% [39%] (41%) {43%} [44%] (44%)

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 58% [53%] (50%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 39% [36%] (40%) {40%} [39%] (38%)

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 50% [42%] (41%) {45%} [49%] (50%)
• Tom Cotton (R) 46% [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (33%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Pryor's job performance?

• Approve 39% [36%] (34%) {38%}
• Disapprove 50% [51%] (51%) {46%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Cotton 48% [40%] (40%) {37%} / 40% [41%] (40%) {42%} {+8%}

Survey of 1,092 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2014. Party ID: 39% [39%] (35%) {41%} [37%] (37%) Democrat; 32% [31%] (34%) {27%} [27%] (27%) Republican; 29% [30%] (31%) {32%} [37%] (36%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 29% [26%] (28%) {28%} Moderate; 25% [27%] (27%) {23%} Somewhat conservative; 23% [22%] (22%) {23%} Very conservative; 12% [13%] (14%) {16%} Somewhat liberal; 11% [11%] (10%) {10%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 1-3, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Asa Hutchinson (R) 50% [49%] (46%) {44%} [48%] (41%) 
• Mike Ross (D) 43% [47%] (42%) {46%} [41%] (44%)

Survey of 967 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 51% [47%] (47%) {43%} [47%] (45%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 44% [44%] (40%) {44%} [43%] (40%)

Survey of 967 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Asa Hutchinson (R) 47% {49%} [45%] (48%)
• Mike Ross (D) 38% {38%} [38%] (45%)

Survey of 1,567 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 47% {45%} [43%] (50%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 42% {41%} [39%] (46%)
• Other 1% {1%} [2%]
• Not sure 10% {13%} [16%] 

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 57% {53%} [52%]
• Mark Pryor (D) 38% {37%} [38%]
• Other 1% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 5% {9%} [8%]

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 45% {44%} [39%]
• Tom Cotton (R) 38% {38%} [34%]
• Other 2% {1%} [3%]
• Not sure 15% {17%} [23%]

Survey of 1,567 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 45% (45%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 43% (40%)
• Mark Swaney (G) 3% (3%)
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2% (2%)
  
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 7% (9%)

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 51% 
• Mark Pryor (D) 36%
• Mark Swaney (G) 4%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%
  
• Other 1%
• Undecided 5%

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 49% 
• Tom Cotton (R) 38% 
• Mark Swaney (G) 3%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%
  
• Other 1%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Cotton 46% (44%) / 43% (40%) {+3%}
• Mark Pryor 41% (44%) / 49% (42%) {-8%}

Survey of 621 likely voters was conducted October 19-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Talk Business/Hendrix College Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 49.0% {44%} [42.5%] (41%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 40.5% {42%} [45.5%] (42%)
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.5% {3%} [2%]
• Mark Swaney (G) 2.0% {4%} [2%]
• Undecided 6.0% {7%} [8%] (17%)

Survey of 2,075 likely voters was conducted October 15-16, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. Party ID: 34% {32.5%} Democrat; 29% {30.0%} Republican; 30% {30.5%} Independent; 7% {7.0%} Other. Results from the poll conducted July 22-25, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-4, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 47% (47%) {43%} [47%] (45%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 44% (40%) {44%} [43%] (40%)

Survey of 940 likely voters was conducted October 13-15, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox News Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 46%
• Mark Pryor (D) 39%
• Mark Swaney (G) 2%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 51%
• Mark Pryor (D) 36%
• Mark Swaney (G) 2%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%

Among Women

• Tom Cotton (R) 41%
• Mark Pryor (D) 41%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%
• Mark Swaney (G) 2%

Survey of 707 likely voters was conducted October 4-7, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Republican; 36% Democrat; 26% Independent/Other.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 45% [43%] (50%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 41% [39%] (46%)
• Other 1% [2%]
• Not sure 13% [16%] 

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 53% [52%]
• Mark Pryor (D) 37% [38%]
• Other 1% [1%]
• Not sure 9% [8%]

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 44% [39%]
• Tom Cotton (R) 38% [34%]
• Other 1% [3%]
• Not sure 17% [23%]

Survey of 1,991 likely voters was conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 47% {43%} [47%] (45%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 40% {44%} [43%] (40%)
• Some other candidate 5% {6%} [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 8% {6%} [6%] (10%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 24-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

• Hillary Clinton 70.81%
• Joe Biden 7.66%
• Andrew Cuomo 5.26%
• Elizabeth Warren 3.35%
• Martin O'Malley 2.39% 
• Other 0.48%
• Undecided 9.57%

Survey of 209 Democratic primary voters was conducted September 20-23, 2014.

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Mike Huckabee 39.27%
• Rick Perry 8.38%
• Ted Cruz 7.33%
• Rand Paul 6.28%
• Chris Christie 4.71%
• Jeb Bush 4.71%
• Marco Rubio 4.71%
• Paul Ryan 3.14%
• Bobby Jindal 2.62%
• Rick Santorum 2.09%
• Scott Walker 1.57%
• Jon Huntsman 1.57%
• John Kasich 1.05%
• Other 2.09%
• Undecided 10.47%

Survey of 171 GOP primary voters was conducted September 20-23, 2014.

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll 

• Mark Pryor (D) 44.8%
• Tom Cotton (R) 43.0%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.8%
• Mark Swaney (G) 2.6%
• Undecided 6.6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Pryor 43.8% / 46.6% {-2.8%}
• Tom Cotton 38.6% / 43.0% {-4.4%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Pryor is doing as U.S. Senator?

• Approve 38.4%
• Disapprove 49.0%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 20-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 35.4% Democrat; 31.0% Republican; 27.6% Independent/Unaffiliated; 5.2% Libertarian; 0.8% Green.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Poll

• Mike Huckabee (R) 53% [55%] (47%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [39%] (44%)

• Jeb Bush (R) 46% [46%] (41%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (46%)

• Rand Paul (R) 45% [45%] (42%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%] (48%)

• Ted Cruz (R) 44% [46%]
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%]

• Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (47%)
• Chris Christie (R) 41% [42%] (38%)

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee (R) 62% [60%] (56%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [29%] (31%)

• Jeb Bush (R) 55% [46%] (44%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 23% [31%] (33%)

• Rand Paul (R) 55% [50%] (51%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [30%] (35%)

• Ted Cruz (R) 53% [49%]
• Hillary Clinton (D) 26% [32%]

• Chris Christie (R) 45% [42%] (44%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 28% [32%] (33%)

Among Moderates

• Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [52%] (58%)
• Mike Huckabee (R) 33% [38%] (30%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 60% [54%] (64%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 27% [29%] (23%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [57%] (66%)
• Rand Paul (R) 25% [23%] (24%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 65% [57%]
• Ted Cruz (R) 23% [26%]

• Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [55%] (60%)
• Chris Christie (R) 25% [24%] (27%)

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee (R) 58% [59%] (50%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [35%] (38%)

• Jeb Bush (R) 54% [51%] (44%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [36%] (38%)

• Rand Paul (R) 53% [49%] (47%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [38%] (43%)

• Ted Cruz (R) 52% [51%]
• Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [39%]

• Chris Christie (R) 47% [48%] (41%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [37%] (40%)

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee (R) 48% [51%] (46%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%] (50%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 38% [42%] (38%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
• Rand Paul (R) 37% [41%] (38%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%]
• Ted Cruz (R) 37% [40%]

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%] (52%)
• Chris Christie (R) 36% [37%] (36%)

Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for President in 2016, or not?

• Think he should run 45% [42%] (39%)
• Think he should not 43% [45%] (46%)
• Not sure 13% [13%] (15%) 

Survey of 1,453 likely voters was conducted September 18-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [35%] (41%) Democrat; 31% [34%] (27%) Republican; 30% [31%] (32%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 27% [27%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 26% [28%] (28%) Moderate; 22% [22%] (23%) Very conservative; 13% [14%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 11% [10%] (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 1-3, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll 

The candidates for U.S. Senate this fall are Democrat Mark Pryor, Republican Tom Cotton, Green party candidate Mark Swaney, and Libertarian Nathan LaFrance. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

• Tom Cotton (R) 43% (41%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 38% (39%)
• Mark Swaney (G) 3% (4%)
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 3% (3%)
• Undecided 13% (14%)

Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if they lean Pryor or Cotton

• Tom Cotton (R) 45% (43%) {42%} [44%] (41%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 39% (41%) {43%} [44%] (44%)

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 53% (50%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 36% (40%) {40%} [39%] (38%)

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 42% (41%) {45%} [49%] (50%)
• Tom Cotton (R) 38% (37%) {36%} [37%] (33%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Pryor's job performance?

• Approve 36% (34%) {38%}
• Disapprove 51% (51%) {46%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Cotton 40% (40%) {37%} / 41% (40%) {42%} {-1%}

Survey of 1,453 likely voters was conducted September 18-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (35%) {41%} [37%] (37%) Democrat; 31% (34%) {27%} [27%] (27%) Republican; 30% (31%) {32%} [37%] (36%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 27% (27%) {23%} Somewhat conservative; 26% (28%) {28%} Moderate; 22% (22%) {23%} Very conservative; 13% (14%) {16%} Somewhat liberal; 11% (10%) {10%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 1-3, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Tom Cotton (R) 43% (50%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 39% (46%)
• Other 2%
• Not sure 16%

Survey of 1,572 likely voters was conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

Among Likely Voters

• Tom Cotton (R) 45%
• Mark Pryor (D) 40%
• Mark Swaney (G) 3%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%
  
• Other 1%
• Undecided 9%

Among Registered Voters

• Tom Cotton (R) 41% (40%)
• Mark Pryor (D) 41% (51%)
• Mark Swaney (G) 4%
• Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%
  
• Other 1% (2%)
• Undecided 11% (7%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Among Likely Voters

• Tom Cotton 44% / 40% {+4%}
• Mark Pryor 44% / 42% {+2%}

Among Registered Voters

• Mark Pryor 44% (50%) / 40% (35%) {+4%}
• Tom Cotton 41% (38%) / 41% (39%) {0%}

Survey of 1,068 registered voters, including 639 likely voters, was conducted September 2-4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.9 percentage points among likely voters. Party registration (among registered voters): 29% (30%) Democrat; 26% (23%) Republican; 43% (46%) Independent. Ideology (among registered voters): 35% (38%) Conservative; 32% (33%) Moderate; 16% (12%) Very conservative; 12% (13%) Liberal; 5% (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

CNN/ORC Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll 

• Tom Cotton (R) 49%
• Mark Pryor (D) 47%

Among Men

• Tom Cotton (R) 54%
• Mark Pryor (D) 43%

Among Women

• Mark Pryor (D) 51%
• Tom Cotton (R) 43%

Survey of 523 likely voters was conducted August 28 - September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 28% Republican; 40% Independent.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

• Mark Pryor (D) 44% [43%] (40%)
• Tom Cotton (R) 43% [47%] (45%)
• Some other candidate 6% [4%] (5%)
• Undecided 6% [6%] (10%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 25-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.