Sunday, January 23, 2011

Poll Watch: Washington Post-ABC News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Washington Post-ABC News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mitt Romney 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Haley Barbour 1%
  • Jim DeMint 1%
  • Jon Huntsman 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Other (vol.) 1%
  • None of these (vol.) 6%
  • No opinion 6%
Survey of 425 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted January 13-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:
Huckabee and Palin, in particular, seem to share a common base -- both running more strongly among those with family incomes of $50,000 or less (Huckabee 26 percent, Palin 25 percent) and whites without college degrees (Palin 26 percent, Huckabee 25 percent).
Romney, on the other hand, runs best among the college educated (30 percent), whites making over $50,000 a year (29 percent) and whites with college degrees (32 percent).
Among self-identified conservatives, the top tier expands slightly to include Christie and Gingrich. Nineteen percent of conservatives favor Huckabee as compared to 16 percent for Romney, 14 percent for Palin and 11 percent each for Gingrich and Christie.
Slice that vote even thinner to include only those who describe themselves as "very conservative," and Huckabee emerges as the clearer favorite with 21 percent followed by Palin and Gingrich at 14 percent. Romney takes 12 percent to Christie's 11 percent among that subset.
Huckabee is also the favored candidate of white evangelical Protestants; he takes 29 percent among that group as compared to 22 percent for Palin and 12 percent for Romney.

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