Monday, January 31, 2011

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen: 46% of GOP Primary Voters Who Support Sarah Palin Are Likely to Back Third-Party Option If She Isn’t Nominated

Suppose your favorite candidate fails to win the nomination, how likely are you to vote for a third party candidate?
  • Sarah Palin supporters 46%
  • Mike Huckabee supporters 35%
  • Mitt Romney supporters 31%
National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:
In early November when Rasmussen Reports first asked the question, those who said they were at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if their choice wasn’t nominated ranged from 24% of Huckabee supporters to 31% of those who favored Palin.
President Obama won’t be a big beneficiary if a GOP Primary voter’s favorite candidate isn’t nominated. Only nine percent (9%) say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for the Democratic incumbent in that case, with six percent (6%) who say it’s Very Likely. Ninety percent (90%) see a vote for Obama as unlikely, with a whopping 79% who say it’s Not At All Likely.
Forty percent (40%) of likely Republican Primary voters describe themselves as a member of the Tea Party. But Tea Party Republicans are only slightly more inclined to vote for a third-party candidate if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination.

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