Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll

• Joe Donnelly (D) 40% (35%)
• Richard Mourdock (R) 38% (35%)
• Andrew Horning (L) 7%

Among Men

• Richard Mourdock (R) 42%
• Joe Donnelly (D) 38% 

Among Women

• Joe Donnelly (D) 41% 
• Richard Mourdock (R) 35% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 24% / 21% {+3%}
• Richard Mourdock 26% (15%) / 32% (18%) {-6%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% Republican; 38% Democrat; 19% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

While cross tabs show Mourdock’s favorables stood at 45.5% with Republicans, only 18.4% of independents – the voting block likely to determine this race – viewed him favorably while 32.4% were unfavorable.

Mourdock is polling only 71% of the Republican vote while Donnelly is getting 78.3% of the Democratic vote. Among Lugar primary voters, 60.3% are backing Mourdock, with 9.8% of those voters saying they could change their minds. Donnelly is polling 15.3% of Lugar primary voters.

Mourdock is also losing support in the Republican-rich doughnut counties around Indianapolis. His fav/unfavs in the doughnut counties are a troubling 18/43%. He leads Donnelly in the doughnut by only 36-32%.