Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (50%) {46%} [50%]
• Donald Trump (R) 43% (41%) {46%} [44%]

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (47%) {41%} [44%] (49%)
• Donald Trump (R) 41% (38%) {43%} [40%] (37%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 4% (8%) {8%} [9%] (9%)
• Jill Stein (G) 2% (3%) {4%} [4%]

National survey of 799 likely voters was conducted November 4-6, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 14-17, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 21-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 5-8, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 10-13, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 46% (43%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (39%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 6% (6%)
• Jill Stein (G) 1% (2%)

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted November 1-4, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 3-6, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%} [50%]
• Donald Trump (R) 41% {46%} [44%]

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {41%} [44%] (49%)
• Donald Trump (R) 38% {43%} [40%] (37%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 8% {8%} [9%] (9%)
• Jill Stein (G) 3% {4%} [4%]

National survey of 1,006 likely voters was conducted October 14-17, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 21-24, 2016 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 5-8, 2016 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 10-13, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 43%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%

Survey of 642 likely voters was conducted October 3-6, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
• Donald Trump (R) 45%

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
• Donald Trump (R) 43%
• Gary Johnson (L) 6%
• Jill Stein (G) 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 46% / 52% {-6}
• Donald Trump 44% / 53% {-9}

Survey of 805 likely voters was conducted September 29 - October 2, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [50%]
• Donald Trump (R) 46% [44%]

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Donald Trump (R) 43% [40%] (37%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [44%] (49%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 8% [9%] (9%)
• Jill Stein (G) 4% [4%]

National survey of 1,002 likely voters was conducted September 21-24, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 5-8, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 10-13, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 48%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Including Third-Party Candidates: 

• Donald Trump (R) 44%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
• Gary Johnson (L) 10%
• Jill Stein (G) 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Donald Trump 45% / 52% {-7}
• Hillary Clinton 40% / 57% {-17}

Survey of 802 likely voters was conducted September 9-12, 2016 by Selzer & Company. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
• Donald Trump (R) 44%

Including Third-Party Candidates:

• Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (49%)
• Donald Trump (R) 40% (37%)
• Gary Johnson (L) 9% (9%)
• Jill Stein (G) 4%

National survey of 749 likely voters was conducted August 5-8, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 10-13, 2016 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Survey

Bloomberg Politics 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
• Donald Trump (R) 37%
• Gary Johnson (L) 9%

National survey of 750 likely voters was conducted June 10-13, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 45% (42%) {48%} [48%] (43%)
• Bernie Sanders 42% (40%) {39%} [41%] (35%)
• Martin O'Malley 3% (4%) {4%} [2%] (5%)

Survey of 602 likely Democratic caucus attendees was conducted January 26-29, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 7-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-10, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Donald Trump 28% (22%) {21%} [19%] (23%) {4%} [1%]
• Ted Cruz 23% (25%) {31%} [10%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Marco Rubio 15% (12%) {10%} [9%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Ben Carson 10% (11%) {13%} [28%] (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Rand Paul 5% (5%) {3%} [5%] (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• Chris Christie 3% (3%) {3%} [1%] (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Jeb Bush 2% (4%) {6%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Carly Fiorina 2% (2%) {1%} [4%] (5%) {2%} [1%]
• Mike Huckabee 2% (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• John Kasich 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ben Carson 72% (73%) {72%} [84%] (79%) {56%} [50%] (41%) / 22% (22%) {22%} [12%] (8%) {15%} [12%] (8%) {+50%}
• Marco Rubio 70% (73%) {70%} [70%] (67%) {60%} [57%] (54%) / 21% (21%) {21%} [20%] (20%) {17%} [20%] (16%) {+49%}
• Ted Cruz 65% (76%) {73%} [61%] (61%) {59%} [58%] (52%) / 28% (19%) {19%} [26%] (24%) {20%} [21%] (18%) {+37%}
• Donald Trump 50% (54%) {57%} [59%] (61%) {27%} [26%] / 47% (45%) {38%} [37%] (35%) {63%} [68%] {+3%}
• John Kasich 28% (28%) {19%} [31%] (33%) {25%} [22%]  (17%) / 27% (43%) {46%} [33%] (22%) {16%} [14%]  (7%) {+1%}
• Rand Paul 40% (45%) {37%} [43%] (39%) {55%} [64%] (59%) / 41% (43%) {50%} [48%] (49%) {34%} [25%] (24%) {-1%}
• Chris Christie 40% (51%) {46%} [39%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (39%) / 44% (42%) {42%} [49%] (59%) {58%} [54%] (45%) {-4%}
• Jeb Bush 41% (47%) {39%} [50%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) / 53% (50%) {54%} [43%] (50%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {-12%}

Survey of 602 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 26-29, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 7-10, 2016 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-10, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 42% {48%} [48%] (43%)
• Bernie Sanders 40% {39%} [41%] (35%)
• Martin O'Malley 4% {4%} [2%] (5%)

Survey of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees was conducted January 7-10, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 7-10, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 25% {31%} [10%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Donald Trump 22% {21%} [19%] (23%) {4%} [1%] 
• Marco Rubio 12% {10%} [9%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Ben Carson 11% {13%} [28%] (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Rand Paul 5% {3%} [5%] (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• Jeb Bush 4% {6%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Chris Christie 3% {3%} [1%] (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 3% {3%} [3%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Carly Fiorina 2% {1%} [4%] (5%) {2%} [1%]
• John Kasich 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% {1%} [2%] (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% {0%} [0%] (0%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 76% {73%} [61%] (61%) {59%} [58%] (52%) / 19% {19%} [26%] (24%) {20%} [21%] (18%) {+57%}
• Marco Rubio 73% {70%} [70%] (67%) {60%} [57%] (54%) / 21% {21%} [20%] (20%) {17%} [20%] (16%) {+52%}
• Ben Carson 73% {72%} [84%] (79%) {56%} [50%] (41%) / 22% {22%} [12%] (8%) {15%} [12%] (8%) {+51%}
• Carly Fiorina 58% {52%} [66%] (64%) {41%} [15%] / 28% {33%} [22%] (15%) {19%} [19%] {+30%}
• Mike Huckabee 59% {53%} [61%] (61%) {61%} [66%] (59%) / 33% {38%} [33%] (30%) {30%} [28%] (30%) {+26%}
• Rick Santorum 52% {42%} [51%] (48%) {56%} [57%] (52%) / 34% {43%} [34%] (37%) {28%} [30%] (30%) {+18%}
• Chris Christie 51% {46%} [39%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (39%) / 42% {42%} [49%] (59%) {58%} [54%] (45%) {+9%}
• Donald Trump 54% {57%} [59%] (61%) {27%} [26%] / 45% {38%} [37%] (35%) {63%} [68%] {+9%}
• Rand Paul 45% {37%} [43%] (39%) {55%} [64%] (59%) / 43% {50%} [48%] (49%) {34%} [25%] (24%) {+2%}
• Jeb Bush 47% {39%} [50%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) / 50% {54%} [43%] (50%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {-3%}
• John Kasich 28% {19%} [31%] (33%) {25%} [22%]  (17%) / 43% {46%} [33%] (22%) {16%} [14%]  (7%) {-15%}

Survey of 500 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 7-10, 2016 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 7-10, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 48% [48%] (43%)
• Bernie Sanders 39% [41%] (35%)
• Martin O'Malley 4% [2%] (5%)

Survey of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees was conducted December 7-10, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 31% [10%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Donald Trump 21% [19%] (23%) {4%} [1%] 
• Ben Carson 13% [28%] (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Marco Rubio 10% [9%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Jeb Bush 6% [5%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Chris Christie 3% [1%] (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 3% [3%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Rand Paul 3% [5%] (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Carly Fiorina 1% [4%] (5%) {2%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% [0%] (0%) {1%}
• George Pataki 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 73% [61%] (61%) {59%} [58%] (52%) / 19% [26%] (24%) {20%} [21%] (18%) {+54%}
• Ben Carson 72% [84%] (79%) {56%} [50%] (41%) / 22% [12%] (8%) {15%} [12%] (8%) {+50%}
• Marco Rubio 70% [70%] (67%) {60%} [57%] (54%) / 21% [20%] (20%) {17%} [20%] (16%) {+49%}
• Donald Trump 57% [59%] (61%) {27%} [26%] / 38% [37%] (35%) {63%} [68%] {+19%}
• Carly Fiorina 52% [66%] (64%) {41%} [15%] / 33% [22%] (15%) {19%} [19%] {+19%}
• Mike Huckabee 53% [61%] (61%) {61%} [66%] (59%) / 38% [33%] (30%) {30%} [28%] (30%) {+15%}
• Chris Christie 46% [39%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (39%) / 42% [49%] (59%) {58%} [54%] (45%) {+4%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [51%] (48%) {56%} [57%] (52%) / 43% [34%] (37%) {28%} [30%] (30%) {-1%}
• Rand Paul 37% [43%] (39%) {55%} [64%] (59%) / 50% [48%] (49%) {34%} [25%] (24%) {-13%}
• Jeb Bush 39% [50%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) / 54% [43%] (50%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {-15%}
• John Kasich 19% [31%] (33%) {25%} [22%]  (17%) / 46% [33%] (22%) {16%} [14%]  (7%) {-27%}
• Lindsey Graham 16% [18%] (15%) {22%} / 53% [53%] (59%) {38%} {-37%} 

"Selzer Score"

• Ted Cruz 97.5 [53.5] (53)
• Donald Trump 72.5 [64.5] (73)
• Ben Carson 67.5 [95.5] (75)
• Marco Rubio 62 [56.5] (50)
• Jeb Bush 39.5 [39] (41)
• Mike Huckabee 39.5 [39] (42)
• Chris Christie 34.5 [26.5] (27)
• Carly Fiorina 34.5 [48] (48.5) 
• Rand Paul 32.5 [35.5] (32.5)
• Rick Santorum 31 [31.5] (32)
• John Kasich 22 [24] (27.5)
• Lindsey Graham 14.5 [12.5] (15)
• George Pataki 9.5 [9.5] (13)
• Jim Gilmore 7 [8.5] (10)

Survey of 400 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 7-10, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ben Carson 28% (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Donald Trump 19% (23%) {4%} [1%] 
• Ted Cruz 10% (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Marco Rubio 9% (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Jeb Bush 5% (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Rand Paul 5% (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% (5%) {2%} [1%]
• Mike Huckabee 3% (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Bobby Jindal 2% (2%) {1%} [2%] (1%)
• John Kasich 2% (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Chris Christie 1% (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% (0%) {1%}
• George Pataki 0% (0%) {0%} 
• Jim Gilmore 0% (0%)

Survey of 401 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted October 16-19, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 48% (43%)
• Bernie Sanders 41% (35%)
• Martin O'Malley 2% (5%)
• Lincoln Chafee 1% (1%) 
• Larry Lessig 0%

Survey of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees was conducted October 16-19, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Donald Trump 23% {4%} [1%] 
• Ben Carson 18% {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Ted Cruz 8% {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Scott Walker 8% {17%} [16%] (4%) 
• Jeb Bush 6% {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Marco Rubio 6% {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Carly Fiorina 5% {2%} [1%]
• Mike Huckabee 4% {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Rand Paul 4% {10%} [15%] (10%)
• Chris Christie 2% {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Bobby Jindal 2% {1%} [2%] (1%)
• John Kasich 2% {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Rick Perry 1% {3%} [3%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 1% {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0% {1%}
• George Pataki 0% {0%}

Survey of 400 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted August 23-26, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 37% {57%} [56%] (53%)
• Bernie Sanders 30% {16%} [5%] (3%)
• Joe Biden 14% {8%} [9%] (9%)
• Martin O'Malley 3% {2%} [1%] (0%)
• Jim Webb 2% {2%} [3%] (1%)
• Lincoln Chafee 1%

If Joe Biden does not run for president:

• Hillary Clinton 43%
• Bernie Sanders 35%
• Martin O'Malley 5%
• Jim Webb 2%
• Lincoln Chafee 1%

Survey of 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses was conducted August 23-26, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 50% {57%} [56%] (53%)
• Bernie Sanders 24% {16%} [5%] (3%)
• Martin O'Malley 2% {2%} [1%] (0%) 
• Lincoln Chafee 0%

Survey of 401 likely Democratic caucus-goers was conducted June 19-22, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is ± 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.