Poll Watch: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Muhlenberg/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 48% {45%} [41%] (44%) {45%} [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 42% {37%} [39%] (36%) {33%} [30%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob Casey 39% {37%} [32%] (34%) {35%} [40%] / 37% {33%} [36%] (33%) {31%} [26%] {+2%}
• Tom Smith 35% {28%} [29%] (23%) {20%} [18%] / 34% {28%} [23%] (21%) {18%} [13%] {+1%}

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Bob Casey is doing his job.

• Approve 38% {37%} [32%] (33%) {37%} [37%]
• Disapprove 37% {34%} [35%] (31%) {31%} [28%]
  

Survey of 430 likely voters was conducted November 1-3, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Party registration: 46% {46%} [47%] (47%) {49%} [49%] Democrat; 42% {40%} [42%] (39%) {39%} [40%] Republican; 11% {12%} [10%] (12%) {8%} [10%] Independent; 1% {2%} [2%] {4%} [2%] Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-21, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 52% {50%} (46%) [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 44% {39%} (36%) [33%]
• Undecided 3% {11%} (18%) [19%]

Among Men

• Tom Smith (R) 49% {43%} (42%) [42%]
• Bob Casey (D) 47% {50%} (46%) [45%]
• Undecided 3% {7%} (12%) [13%]

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 57% {50%} (46%) [53%]
• Tom Smith (R) 40% {35%} (31%) [23%]
• Undecided 3% {15%} (23%) [24%]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Smith?

• Favorable 38% {33%} (14%) [16%]
• Unfavorable 40% {36%} (22%) [29%]

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob Casey's job performance?

• Approve 42% {37%} (36%) [39%]
• Disapprove 41% {39%} (36%) [38%]

Survey of 790 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted November 2-3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 48% {48%} (47%) [46%] Democrat; 38% {37%} (43%) [42%] Republican; 14% {15%} (10%) [12%] Independent/Other. Political ideology: 31% {36%} (29%) [28%] Moderate; 25% {23%} (26%) [22%] Somewhat conservative; 19% {17%} (19%) [18%] Somewhat liberal; 15% {15%} (16%) [19%] Very conservative; 10% {9%} (10%) [12%] Very liberal.   Results from the poll conducted October 12-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/Susquehanna (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/Susquehanna (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 46% [46%]
• Tom Smith (R) 45% [41%]
• Undecided 8% [13%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob Casey (D) 40% / 35% {+5%}
• Tom Smith (R) 37% / 34% {+3%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 29-31, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% [48%] (53%)
• Tom Smith (R) 42% [38%] (34%)
• Undecided 9% [14%]

Among Men

• Tom Smith (R) 47% [44%]
• Bob Casey (D) 46% [46%]
• Undecided 7% [10%]

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 52% [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 37% [33%]
• Undecided 11% [18%]

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 23-25, 2012 by Global Strategy Group (D) and National Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 4-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 46% (49%) {49%} [49%] (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 45% (45%) {42%} [38%] (41%)
• Some other candidate 0% (1%) {2%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 9% (5%) {7%} [9%] (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety percent (90%) of likely Pennsylvania voters are certain they will vote on Election Day. Among these voters, it's Smith 47%, Casey 46%.

Smith, a Tea Party favorite, draws support from 87% of Republicans in Pennsylvania and leads 41% to 31% among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties. Casey, the son of a popular former governor and a one-time state official himself, is backed by 83% of Democrats.

Smith leads Casey 51% to 40% among men in the state but trails by nine points among women. Young voters and senior citizens support Casey, but middle-aged voters favor Smith.

Casey is viewed favorably by 43% of Pennsylvania voters and unfavorably by 42%. That includes Very Favorables of 12% and Very Unfavorables of 20%.

Forty-seven percent (47%) share a favorable impression of Smith, while 34% view him unfavorably. These figures include 20% who have a Very Favorable impression of the Republican and 18% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion.

Poll Watch: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Muhlenberg/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 45% [41%] (44%) {45%} [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 37% [39%] (36%) {33%} [30%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob Casey (D) 37% [32%] (34%) {35%} [40%] / 33% [36%] (33%) {31%} [26%] {+4%}
• Tom Smith (R) 28% [29%] (23%) {20%} [18%] / 28% [23%] (21%) {18%} [13%] {0%}

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Bob Casey is doing his job.

• Approve 37% [32%] (33%) {37%} [37%]
• Disapprove 34% [35%] (31%) {31%} [28%]
  

Survey of 444 likely voters was conducted October 17-21, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Party registration: 46% [47%] (47%) {49%} [49%] Democrat; 40% [42%] (39%) {39%} [40%] Republican; 12% [10%] (12%) {8%} [10%] Independent; 2% [2%] {4%} [2%] Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 48% [49%] (55%)
• Tom Smith (R) 45% [43%] (37%)

Among Men

• Tom Smith (R) 53% [50%] (43%)
• Bob Casey (D) 42% [43%] (50%)

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 53% [53%] (59%)
• Tom Smith (R) 38% [36%] (31%)

Survey of 1,519 likely voters was conducted October 12-14, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% [39%] (38%) Democrat; 31% [28%] (32%) Republican; 26% [27%] (26%) Independent; 4% [6%] (4%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-24, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 50% (46%) [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 39% (36%) [33%]
• Undecided 11% (18%) [19%]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Smith?

• Favorable 33% (14%) [16%]
• Unfavorable 36% (22%) [29%]

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob Casey's job performance?

• Approve 37% (36%) [39%]
• Disapprove 39% (36%) [38%]

Survey of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted October 12-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 48% (47%) [46%] Democrat; 37% (43%) [42%] Republican; 15% (10%) [12%] Independent/Other. Political ideology: 36% (29%) [28%] Moderate; 23% (26%) [22%] Somewhat conservative; 17% (19%) [18%] Somewhat liberal; 15% (16%) [19%] Very conservative; 9% (10%) [12%] Very liberal.   Results from the poll conducted July 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Muhlenberg/Morning Call Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 41% (44%) {45%} [49%]
• Tom Smith (R) 39% (36%) {33%} [30%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Smith (R) 29% (23%) {20%} [18%] / 23% (21%) {18%} [13%] {+6%}
• Bob Casey (D) 32% (34%) {35%} [40%] / 36% (33%) {31%} [26%] {-4%}
  

Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Senator Bob Casey is doing his job.

• Approve 32% (33%) {37%} [37%]
• Disapprove 35% (31%) {31%} [28%]
  

Survey of 438 likely voters was conducted October 10-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Party registration: 47% (47%) {49%} [49%] Democrat; 42% (39%) {39%} [40%] Republican; 10% (12%) {8%} [10%] Independent; 2% {4%} [2%] Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-16, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-22, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Philadelphia Inquirer Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 48% (53%)
• Tom Smith (R) 38% (34%)
• Undecided 14%

Among Men

• Bob Casey (D) 46%
• Tom Smith (R) 44%
• Undecided 10%

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 49%
• Tom Smith (R) 33%
• Undecided 18%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 4-8, 2012 by Global Strategy Group (D) and National Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 21-23, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% {49%} [49%] (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 45% {42%} [38%] (41%)
• Some other candidate 1% {2%} [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 5% {7%} [9%] (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among those who are absolutely certain they will show up and vote, the Senate race is even closer: 49% for Casey and 46% for Smith.

Forty-six percent (46%) of all likely voters in the state now have a favorable opinion of each candidate. For Casey, that's a decline from 51% a month ago. His negatives are nearly as high, with 43% now voicing an unfavorable opinion of the first-term senator.

Smith's favorability ratings are little changed, although his negatives have inched up a few points to 37%.

Casey has a modest lead among both male and female voters in the state.

While both men do well within their own party, Casey has a six-point lead among voters not affiliated with either the Republicans or the Democrats.

Poll Watch: Siena College Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Siena College Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 44%
• Tom Smith (R) 35%
• Someone else 3%
• Undecided 16%

Among Men

• Bob Casey (D) 41%
• Tom Smith (R) 41%
• Someone else 4%
• Undecided 13%

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 47%
• Tom Smith (R) 30%
• Someone else 2%
• Undecided 19%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob Casey 40% / 34% {+6%}
• Tom Smith 27% / 26% {+1%}

Survey of 545 likely voters was conducted October 1-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 47% Democrat; 37% Republican; 12% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% Conservative; 31% Moderate; 27% Liberal.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% (55%)
• Tom Smith (R) 43% (37%)

Among Men

• Tom Smith (R) 50% (43%)
• Bob Casey (D) 43% (50%)

Among Women

• Bob Casey (D) 53% (59%)
• Tom Smith (R) 36% (31%)

Survey of 1,180 likely voters was conducted September 18-24, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% (38%) Democrat; 28% (32%) Republican; 27% (26%) Independent; 6% (4%) Other.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% [49%] (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 42% [38%] (41%)
• Some other candidate 2% [4%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [9%] (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Both candidates draw only 77% support from voters in their respective parties. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer Casey by nearly two-to-one, 53% to 29%.

Casey leads among male and female voters and among voters in all age demographics.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Pennsylvania voters share a favorable opinion of Casey, while 39% regard him unfavorably. This includes 13% who view him very favorably and 20% very unfavorably.

For Smith, favorables are 47% and unfavorables 33%, with 15% who have a very favorable opinion of him and 19% with a very unfavorable one. But with Election Day only weeks away, 20% of the state’s voters still don’t know enough about the GOP candidate to venture any kind of opinion of him.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 55%
• Tom Smith (R) 37%

Survey of 1,168 likely voters was conducted July 24-30, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% Democrat; 32% Republican; 26% Independent; 4% Other.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 46%
• Tom Smith (R) 36%
• Undecided 18%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Smith?

• Favorable 14%
• Unfavorable 22%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob Casey's job performance?

• Approve 36%
• Disapprove 36%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat Toomey's job performance?

• Approve 32%
• Disapprove 30%

Survey of 758 Pennsylvania voters was conducted July 21-23, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 47% Democrat; 43% Republican; 10% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Moderate; 26% Somewhat conservative; 19% Somewhat liberal; 16% Very conservative; 10% Very liberal. 

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 49% (48%)
• Tom Smith (R) 38% (41%)
• Some other candidate 4% (3%)
• Undecided 9% (7%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 21, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

The Democrat leads among both male and female voters. Smith is slightly ahead among middle-aged voters but trails among those under 40 and the elderly.

Casey has 89% support from Pennsylvania Democrats, while Smith carries 78% of the state’s Republican vote. The GOP challenger leads by three among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

The candidates are tied among married voters, but Casey is well ahead among those who are not married.

Casey is viewed very favorably by 15% of the state’s voters and very unfavorably by 15%. Twelve percent (12%) share a very favorable opinion of Smith, while 10% regard him very unfavorably. However, 29% don’t know enough about Smith to venture any kind of opinion of him, compared to just 10% who have no opinion of Casey.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 53%
• Tom Smith (R) 39%
• Undecided 8%

Survey of 1,227 likely voters was conducted July 9-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Pennsylvania 2012 Senate Poll

• Bob Casey (D) 48%
• Tom Smith (R) 41%
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 7%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 21, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Casey has 84% support among Pennsylvania Democrats, while 79% of Republicans in the state back Smith. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, the Democrat leads by five, but 29% of these voters like another candidate or are undecided.

The Republican leads by nine points among male voters but trails by 18 among female voters. Smith is just slightly ahead among voters who are married, while unmarrieds prefer Casey by a near two-to-one margin.

Most voters under 40 choose the incumbent, while their elders favor the GOP challenger.

Fourteen percent (14%) of Pennsylvania voters share a very favorable opinion of Casey, while 15% view him very unfavorably. Smith is seen very favorably by 15% and very unfavorably by 12%. But 27% don’t know enough about Smith, a political newcomer, to express any opinion of him. By contrast, just nine percent (9%) have no opinion of Casey.