Poll Watch: Castleton Vermont 2012 Presidential Survey

Castleton Vermont 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 62% [59.3%] (58%)
• Mitt Romney 25% [27.5%] (33%)
• Other 1% [0.5%]
• Neither 4% [5.6%]
• Don't know/Undecided 7% [6.1%]

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 63%
• Mitt Romney 23%

Among Men

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 30%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 66%
• Mitt Romney 21%

Survey of 477 registered voters was conducted August 11-21, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% Democrat; 20% Republican; 45% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Castleton Vermont 2012 Presidential Survey

Castleton Vermont 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 59.3% (58%)
• Mitt Romney 27.5% (33%)
• Other 0.5%
• Neither 5.6%
• Not sure 6.1%

Survey of 607 registered voters was conducted May 7-16, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 34%

• Barack Obama 58%
• Michele Bachmann 30%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Rick Perry 28%

• Barack Obama 58%
• Herman Cain 26%

• Barack Obama 62%
• Sarah Palin 28%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Herman Cain 13% / 30% {-17%}
• Mitt Romney 31% / 49% {-18%}
• Rick Perry 14% / 34% {-20%}
• Michele Bachmann 23% / 55% {-32%}
• Sarah Palin 25% / 66% {-41%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 53%
• Disapprove 40%

Survey of 1,233 Vermont voters was conducted July 28-31, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% Democrat; 24% Republican; 40% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 25% Somewhat liberal; 20% Somewhat conservative; 15% Very liberal; 9% Very conservative.

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Poll Watch: PPP (D) Vermont Political Survey

PPP (D) Vermont Political Survey

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Patrick Leahy’s job performance?

• Approve 62%
• Disapprove 31%

Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Peter Welch’s job performance?

• Approve 59%
• Disapprove 29%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean?

• Favorable 52%
• Unfavorable 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Jeffords?

• Favorable 52%
• Unfavorable 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Socialism?

• Favorable 20%
• Unfavorable 46%

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

• Legal 58%
• Illegal 33%

Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship?

• Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry 55%
• Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry 24%
• There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 18%

Has the legalization of gay marriage in Vermont had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?

• Positive Impact 22%
• Negative impact 18%
• No Impact 60%

Do you support or oppose Vermont's single payer health care law?

• Support 40%
• Oppose 35%

Do you support or oppose the continuing operation of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant?

• Should operate 45%
• Should not operate 41%

Survey of 1,233 Vermont voters was conducted July 28-31, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% Democrat; 24% Republican; 40% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 30% Moderate; 25% Somewhat liberal; 20% Somewhat conservative; 15% Very liberal; 9% Very conservative.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Democratic Primary Survey

PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Democratic Primary Survey

• Barack Obama 52%
• Bernie Sanders 33%
• Undecided 15%

• Barack Obama 61%
• Howard Dean 24%
• Undecided 15%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 81%
• Disapprove 11%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bernie Sanders’ job performance?

• Approve 90%
• Disapprove 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Howard Dean?

• Favorable 77%
• Unfavorable 12%

Survey of 617 usual Vermont Democratic primary voters was conducted July 28-31, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 66% Democrat; 33% Independent/Other; 2% Republican. Political ideology: 38% Somewhat liberal; 29% Moderate; 26% Very liberal; 6% Somewhat conservative; 1% Very conservative.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Vermont 2012 Republican Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 26%
• Michele Bachmann 16%
• Sarah Palin 16%
• Rick Perry 10%
• Herman Cain 9%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

If Sarah Palin doesn't run

• Mitt Romney 29%
• Michele Bachmann 21%
• Rick Perry 11%
• Herman Cain 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Sarah Palin 66% / 24% {+42%}
• Mitt Romney 56% / 27% {+29%}
• Michele Bachmann 50% / 25% {+25%}
• Rick Perry 34%  / 18% {+16%}
• Herman Cain 31% / 20% {+11%}

Survey of 366 Republican primary voters was conducted July 28-31, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Political ideology: 45% Somewhat conservative; 27% Very conservative; 21% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

Rasmussen Vermont Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Vermont Gubernatorial Survey

• Peter Shumlin (D) 50% {49%} [36%] (33%)
• Brian Dubie (R) 45% {46%} [55%] (51%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Peter Shumlin (D) 51%
• Brian Dubie (R) 48%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Brian Dubie 55% {56%} [61%] (61%) / 44% {39%} [30%] (29%) {+11%}
• Peter Shumlin 53% {52%} [43%] (37%) / 46% {40%} [41%] (45%) {+7%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 38% {41%} [40%]
• Somewhat approve 20% {22%} [22%]
• Somewhat disapprove 8% {7%} [11%]
• Strongly disapprove 34% {30%} [26%]

How would you rate the job Jim Douglas has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 33% {30%} [34%]
• Somewhat approve 25% {34%} [31%]
• Somewhat disapprove 23% {18%} [21%]
• Strongly disapprove 17% {16%} [13%]

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted October 28, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% Democrat; 26% Republican; 37% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Dubie draws support from 88% of Republicans, while Shumlin is backed by 83% of Democrats. Dubie holds a 2-point lead over Shumlin among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: VPR/Mason-Dixon Vermont Gubernatorial Survey

VPR/Mason-Dixon Vermont Gubernatorial Survey

• Brian Dubie (R) 44%
• Peter Shumlin (D) 43%
• Other 5%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Brian Dubie 47% / 31% {+16%}
• Peter Shumlin 41% / 37% {+4%}

Survey of 625 Likely Voters was conducted October 11-13, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 33% Democrat; 26% Republican; 41% Independent.