Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 58.9% (61.6%) {48.2%} [57.0%] (48.3%)
• Bernie Sanders 27.3% (23.6%) {22.9%} [2.0%] (3.8%)
• Martin O'Malley 3.8% (3.2%) {4.0%} [2.4%] (0.4%)
• Undecided 10.0% (10.2%) {6.4%} [16.7%] (16.1%)

Survey of 501 likely Democratic caucus participants was conducted December 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 19-22, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 24-27, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 21-23, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 29.7% [6.2%] (6.6%) {6.5%} [5.4%] (6.2%)
• Donald Trump 23.4% [18.6%] (24.5%) {3.1%}  
• Ben Carson 10.8% [30.6%] (18.1%) {6.3%} [12.8%]
• Marco Rubio 10.6% [10.0%] (4.0%) {10.0%} [4.2%] (4.7%)
• Jeb Bush 6.2% [6.8%] (10.4%) {9.6%} [13.1%] (10.7%)
• Carly Fiorina 3.4% [2.4%] (5.2%) {1.0%} [1.3%]
• Rand Paul 2.4% [1.8%] (2.2%) {6.3%} [7.0%] (8.5%)
• Mike Huckabee 1.8% [1.2%] (4.4%) {8.6%} [14.4%] (14.7%)
• John Kasich 1.0% [1.4%] (3.2%) {1.0%} [1.3%] (0.7%)
• Rick Santorum 1.0% [0.8%] (1.0%) {3.5%} [3.8%] (4.7%)
• Chris Christie 0.4% [1.8%] (2.4%) {5.1%} [5.4%] (8.0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0.0% [0.4%] (0.2%) {0.0%} [0.6%]
• Undecided 9.0% [12.8%] (7.2%) {22.8%} [14.7%] (23.8%)

Who would be your second option?

• Ted Cruz 22.6% [7.2%] (5.6%)
  
• Marco Rubio 19.2% [10.0%] (8.4%)
• Ben Carson 13.2% [19.0%] (15.9%)
• Donald Trump 9.2% [8.6%] (9.2%)  
• Carly Fiorina 4.4% [8.8%] (6.0%)
• Jeb Bush 3.4% [7.6%] (9.8%)
• Chris Christie 3.0% [2.6%] (3.4%) 
• Mike Huckabee 2.6% [3.6%] (4.4%)
• Rand Paul 2.0% [1.8%] (4.2%)
• John Kasich 1.0% [1.6%] (2.8%)
• Rick Santorum 0.8% [2.0%] (2.0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0.2% [0.4%] (0.8%)
• Undecided 18.0% [22.6%] (15.1%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 78.2% [52.4%] (50.0%) / 10.8% [23.2%] (25.5%) {+67.4%}
• Ben Carson 75.2% [83.4%] (72.9%) / 14.2% [4.6%] (10.2%) {+61.0%}
• Marco Rubio 74.3% [68.8%] (59.8%) / 13.8% [13.4%] (16.3%) {+60.5%}
• Carly Fiorina 57.7% [58.6%] (55.2%) / 19.6% [20.8%] (14.7%) {+38.1%}
• Mike Huckabee 62.7% [56.2%] (60.8%) / 25.9% [26.6%] (24.5%) {+36.8%}
• Rick Santorum 49.7% [46.8%] (47.4%) / 27.9% [27.6%] (27.3%) {+21.8%}
• Donald Trump 53.3% [55.8%] (51.8%) / 35.1% [32.4%] (35.1%) {+18.2%}  
• Chris Christie 44.5% [38.2%] (32.5%) / 34.3% [37.2%] (45.4%) {+10.2%}  
• Jeb Bush 44.3% [47.6%] (46.6%) / 39.7% [35.0%] (38.4%) {+4.6%}
• Rand Paul 38.5% [33.6%] (36.7%) / 44.9% [45.2%] (39.0%) {-6.4%}
• John Kasich 24.0% [28.4%] (33.1%) / 39.7% [27.8%] (23.1%) {-15.7%}
• Lindsey Graham 27.6% [16.2%] (15.9%) / 72.4% [45.4%] (47.2%) {-44.8%}

Survey of 499 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted December 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted October 19-22, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 24-27, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 21-23, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-24, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 52% {57%} [43%] (52%) {62%} [59%] (67%) {71%} [68%] (58%) {60%} [62%] (44%)
• Bernie Sanders 34% {25%} [22%] (25%) {14%}
• Martin O'Malley 7% {7%} [3%] (7%) {6%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%]
• Not sure 6% {9%} [9%] (11%) {13%} [8%] (10%) {5%} [3%] (13%) {14%} [9%] (21%)

Survey of 526 usual Democratic primary voters was conducted December 10-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 36% {35%} [34%] (32%) {34%} [28%] (28%) {35%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [32%] (37%) Moderate; 31% {36%} [33%] (35%) {34%} [35%] (41%) {37%} [33%] (32%) {37%} [36%] (33%) Somewhat liberal; 24% {22%} [22%] (25%) {24%} [30%] (20%) {18%} [26%] (20%) {14%} [21%] (14%) Very liberal; 7% {6%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [5%] (9%) {7%} [6%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (11%) Somewhat conservative; 2% {1%} [3%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (5%) {3%} [4%] (4%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted October 30 - November 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 7-9, 2015 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-26, 2015 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Donald Trump 28% [22%] (24%) {19%}
• Ted Cruz 25% [14%] (8%) {9%} [8%] (15%) {10%} [10%]  
• Marco Rubio 14% [10%] (8%) {6%} [13%] (4%) {3%} [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
• Ben Carson 10% [21%] (17%) {12%} [7%]
• Jeb Bush 7% [5%] (6%) {11%} [12%] (12%) {13%} [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
• Chris Christie 3% [3%] (1%) {1%} [5%] (9%) {10%} [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% [5%] (13%) {10%}  
• Mike Huckabee 3% [6%] (6%) {6%} [10%] (20%) {17%} (16%) {15%} [17%] (16%)
• John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {3%}
• Rand Paul 2% [2%] (4%) {3%} [10%] (10%) {14%} [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
• Lindsey Graham 1% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (1%) {2%} (3%) [6%] {10%} [17%] (16%) 
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• George Pataki 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Undecided 1% [1%] (3%) {2%} [8%] (13%) {11%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Who would be your second choice?

• Ted Cruz 19% [10%] (7%) {7%} [11%]
• Ben Carson 12% [19%] (14%) {6%} [8%]
• Marco Rubio 12% [12%] (8%) {10%} [13%]
• Donald Trump 11% [10%] (6%) {8%}
• Chris Christie 7% [5%] (3%) {3%} [4%]
• Jeb Bush 6% [6%] (8%) {7%} [9%]
• Mike Huckabee 6% [6%] (4%) {8%} [9%]
• Carly Fiorina 5% [7%] (16%) {11%}
• Rand Paul 4% [2%] (3%) {2%} [9%]
• Rick Santorum 4% [2%] (3%) {2%}
• John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {5%}
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Lindsey Graham 0% [1%] (0%) {1%}
• George Pataki 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Undecided 11% [11%] (14%) {14%} [17%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 68% [62%] (51%) {56%} [52%] (58%) {40%} [27%] / 20% [16%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (11%) {14%} [12%] {+48%}
• Mike Huckabee 64% [60%] (60%) {64%} [57%] (70%) {63%} (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 21% [21%] (24%) {20%} [23%] (14%) {19%} (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+43%}
• Ben Carson 63% [74%] (77%) {69%} [44%] (37%) / 23% [13%] (11%) {10%} [15%] (6%) {+40%}
• Marco Rubio 59% [60%] (61%) {66%} [53%] (51%) {42%} [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 22% [20%] (19%) {15%} [20%] (10%) {14%} [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+37%}
• Carly Fiorina 51% [55%] (62%) {56%} / 24% [20%] (15%) {15%} {+27%}    
• Rick Santorum 50% [51%] (51%) {55%} (62%) {44%} [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 26% [21%] (25%) {22%} (13%) {21%} [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+24%}
• Donald Trump 53% [53%] (48%) {46%} (30%) {23%} / 36% [34%] (38%) {40%} (40%) {44%} {+17%} 
• Chris Christie 46% [48%] (43%) {34%} [28%] (36%) {38%} [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 33% [28%] (32%) {44%} [50%] (38%) {35%} [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {+13%} 
• Rand Paul 37% [44%] (43%) {31%} [51%] (60%) {59%} [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 34% [28%] (32%) {45%} [26%] (12%) {15%} [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+3%}
• Jeb Bush 35% [30%] (38%) {45%} [38%] (48%) {50%} [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 47% [43%] (40%) {32%} [37%] (25%) {17%} [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {-12%} 
• John Kasich 22% [22%] (25%) {33%} (18%) {11%} / 37% [37%] (30%) {23%} (10%) {13%} {-15%}
• Jim Gilmore 3% [3%] (2%) {4%} / 27% [26%] (20%) {16%} {-24%}
• Lindsey Graham 19% [20%] (22%) {22%} / 44% [38%] (34%) {33%} {-25%}
• George Pataki 7% [8%] (8%) {14%} / 36% [34%] (31%) {25%} {-29%}

Survey of 522 usual Republican primary voters was conducted December 10-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% [40%] (43%) {36%} [41%] (37%) {39%} [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 39% [37%] (35%) {34%} [34%] (42%) {33%} [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 17% [15%] (15%) {23%} [19%] (16%) {21%} [16%] (21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 4% [7%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (3%) {5%} [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 30 - November 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 7-9, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 23-26, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Poll

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (46%)
• Donald Trump (R) 44% (43%)

Survey of 851 registered voters was conducted December 10-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 38% (32%) {32%} [33%] (24%) {4%}
• Ted Cruz 15% (8%) {6%} [7%] (4%) {8%} [12%] (8%) {4%} [7%] (12%) 
• Ben Carson 12% (22%) {22%} [20%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (8%) {7%}
• Marco Rubio 12% (11%) {10%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [6%] (10%)
• Jeb Bush 5% (6%) {7%} [8%] (12%) {10%} [21%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (18%)
• Chris Christie 4% (2%) {3%] [1%] (3%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [9%] (14%)
• John Kasich 2% (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {3%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [1%]
• Rand Paul 2% (3%) {2%] [5%] (6%) {11%} [8%] (10%) {12%} [15%] (11%)
• Carly Fiorina 1% (4%) {5%] [2%] (0%) {2%} [1%] 
• Lindsey Graham 1% (1%) {1%] [0%] (0%) {1%} [1%]
• Mike Huckabee 1% (3%) {3%} [3%] (8%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {12%} [14%] 
• Rick Santorum 0% (1%) {0%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%}
• George Pataki 0% (0%) {1%} [0%] (1%) {1%}

Survey of 362 registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted December 10-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 16-19, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-19, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 28-31, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Monmouth University 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 41% {28%} [30%] (26.0%) {13%} [2%] (7%)
• Ted Cruz 14% {10%} [8%] (5.8%) {9%} [5%] (11%)
• Marco Rubio 10% {6%} [5%] (4.4%) {6%} [9%] (5%)
• Ben Carson 9% {18%} [18%] (4.6%) {6%} [11%] (7%)
• Jeb Bush 3% {5%} [8%] (12.2%) {15%} [9%] (13%)
• John Kasich 3% {1%} [2%] (3.2%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
• Chris Christie 2% {3%} [2%] (4.4%) {2%} [4%] (5%)
• Carly Fiorina 2% {6%} [4%] (1.9%) {1%} [2%] (1%)
• Mike Huckabee 2% {4%} [4%] (5.7%) {7%} [8%] (9%)
• Rand Paul 2% {4%} [2%] (4.4%) {6%} [6%] (6%)
• Lindsey Graham 1% {1%} [0%] (0.7%) {0%} [2%] (1%) 
• George Pataki 1% {0%} [0%] (0.4%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 0% {0%} [0%] (1.0%) {2%} [3%] (1%) 
• Jim Gilmore 0% {0%} [0%] (0.0%) {0%}
• No one (vol.) 2% {3%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
• Undecided (vol.) 6% {9%} [9%] (10%) {18%} [20%] (14%)

National survey of 385 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party was conducted December 10-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 30 - August 2, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 11-14, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 30 - April 2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 56% [62%] (58%) {53%} [59%] (75%)
• Bernie Sanders 37% [31%] (33%) {38%} [25%] (15%)
• Martin O'Malley 4% [3%] (1%) {1%} [3%] (2%)

National survey of 400 Democrats and those who lean Democratic was conducted December 6-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 25-29, 2015 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 20-24, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 26-30, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 14-18, 2015 are in parentheses.

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 48% [48%] (43%)
• Bernie Sanders 39% [41%] (35%)
• Martin O'Malley 4% [2%] (5%)

Survey of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees was conducted December 7-10, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Donald Trump 28% {25%} [20%] (27%) {10%}
• Ted Cruz 27% {23%} [10%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (5%)
• Marco Rubio 14% {13%} [13%] (5%) {7%} [13%] (4%)
• Ben Carson 10% {18%} [28%] (21%) {10%} [7%] (11%)
• Jeb Bush 5% {4%} [5%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (10%)
• Rand Paul 4% {5%} [6%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (13%)
• Chris Christie 3% {2%} [1%] (1%) {1%} [3%] (4%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% {3%} [5%] (5%) {3%} [2%]
• Mike Huckabee 1% {2%} [2%] (4%) {5%} [11%] (11%)
• John Kasich 1% {1%} [3%] (5%) {2%} [2%] (0%) 
• Jim Gilmore 0% {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [0%]
• George Pataki 0% {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%} 
• Rick Santorum 0% {2%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [2%] (4%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ben Carson 74% {79%} [84%] (79%) {63%} [53%] (51%) / 20% {15%} [10%] (6%) {7%} [9%] (5%) {+54%}
• Ted Cruz 72% {73%} [65%] (61%) {58%} [59%] (46%) / 18% {15%} [18%] (19%) {19%} [19%] (19%) {+54%}
• Marco Rubio 71% {70%} [70%] (66%) {60%} [69%] (48%) / 18% {18%} [15%] (15%) {13%} [9%] (15%) {+53%}
• Carly Fiorina 59% {60%} [61%] (62%) {36%} [26%] / 22% {19%} [18%] (8%) {8%} [8%] {+37%}
• Mike Huckabee 59% {61%} [63%] (61%) {61%} [64%] (63%) / 28% {28%} [29%] (28%) {28%} [27%] (24%) {+31%}
• Donald Trump 55% {59%} [53%] (60%) {42%} / 39% {34%} [43%] (35%) {47%} {+16%}
• Rick Santorum 46% {50%} [50%] (51%) {55%} [56%] (54%) / 33% {31%} [32%] (27%) {27%} [28%] (23%) {+13%}
• Chris Christie 49% {45%} [36%] (37%) {25%} [32%] (30%) / 40% {40%} [52%] (50%) {59%} [56%] (54%) {+9%}
• Rand Paul 43% {41%} [45%] (41%) {53%} [59%] (58%) / 42% {44%} [43%] (43%) {31%} [23%] (22%) {+1%}
• Jeb Bush 41% {39%} [43%] (41%) {46%} [39%] (41%) / 51% {53%} [51%] (48%) {42%} [45%] (40%) {-10%}
• John Kasich 24% {22%} [28%] (33%) {20%} [20%] (17%) / 38% {39%} [25%] (18%) {11%} [8%] (6%) {-14%}
• Jim Gilmore 2% {1%} [3%] (3%) / 18% {19%} [14%] (12%) {-16%}
• George Pataki 8% {5%} [9%] (7%) {9%} / 33% {36%} [28%] (26%) {20%} {-25%}
• Lindsey Graham 16% {20%} [18%] (17%) {20%} [15%] / 49% {45%} [47%] (45%) {38%} [37%] {-33%}

Survey of 874 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted December 4-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Gender: 58% {61%} [63%] (57%) {61%} [58%] (60%) Men; 42% {39%} [37%] (43%) {39%} [42%] (40%) Women. Political philosophy: 40% {43%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [43%] (45%) Very conservative; 31% {33%} [28%] (28%) {29%} [27%] (28%) Somewhat conservative; 27% {23%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [29%] (25%) Moderate/Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 16-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14-20, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 27 - September 8, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 20-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25 - May 4, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 16-23, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 Presidential Survey

NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 Presidential Poll 

• Marco Rubio (R) 48% [44%] (45%) [40%] (43%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [47%] (46%) [50%] (49%) 

• Ben Carson (R) 47% [47%] (45%) {46%}
• Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [47%] (47%) {45%}

• Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
• Ted Cruz (R) 45%

• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [50%] {49%}
• Donald Trump (R) 40% [42%] {39%}

Survey of 849 registered voters was conducted December 6-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.36 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 25-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 20-24, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 14-18, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 26-30, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 GOP Nomination Survey

NBC News/Wall Street Journal 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 27% {23%} [25%] (21%) {19%} [1%]
• Ted Cruz 22% {10%} [9%] (5%) {9%} [4%] (11%)
• Marco Rubio 15% {11%} [13%] (11%) {5%} [14%] (18%)
• Ben Carson 11% {29%} [22%] (20%) {10%} [11%] (7%)
• Jeb Bush 7% {8%} [8%] (7%) {14%} [22%] (23%)
• Carly Fiorina 5% {3%} [7%] (11%) {0%} [2%] (1%)
• Mike Huckabee 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {6%} [9%] (5%)
• Chris Christie 3% {3%} [1%] (3%) {3%} [4%] (5%)  
• John Kasich 2% {3%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [1%]
• Rand Paul 2% {2%} [2%] (3%) {6%} [7%] (11%)

Second Choice

• Ted Cruz 18% {13%} [8%] (6%) {8%} [7%] (7%) 
  
• Marco Rubio 18% {13%} [13%] (15%) {11%} [20%] (23%)
  
• Ben Carson 17% {21%} [22%] (15%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
• Donald Trump 12% {12%} [14%] (10%) {11%} [3%]
• Chris Christie 6% {3%} [2%] (2%) {6%} [6%] (9%)
• Carly Fiorina 6% {11%} [11%] (17%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Jeb Bush 5% {7%} [9%] (12%) {16%} [18%] (14%)
• Mike Huckabee 4% {5%} [4%] (6%) {5%} [9%] (10%)
• John Kasich 3% {3%} [4%] (2%) {1%} [0%]
• Rand Paul 3% {4%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [9%] (9%)

National survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 6-9, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.90 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 15-18, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 20-24, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 26-30, 2015 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14-18, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 26-30, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

• Hillary Clinton 50%
• Bernie Sanders 36%
• Martin O'Malley 5%

Survey of 357 likely Democratic caucus-goers was conducted December 7-10, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Fox News Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 28%
• Donald Trump 26%
• Marco Rubio 13%
• Ben Carson 10%
• Jeb Bush 5%
• Rand Paul 5%
• Chris Christie 2%
• Carly Fiorina 2%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• John Kasich 1%
• George Pataki 1% 
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• Rick Santorum 0% 
• Jim Gilmore 0%

Who would be your second choice?

• Ted Cruz 18%
• Marco Rubio 18%
• Donald Trump 13%
• Ben Carson 12%
• Chris Christie 6%
• Carly Fiorina 6%
• Jeb Bush 5%
• Mike Huckabee 4%
• Rand Paul 3%
• John Kasich 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Jim Gilmore 0%
• Lindsey Graham 0%
• George Pataki 0% 

Survey of 450 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted December 7-10, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

• Ted Cruz 31% [10%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%) 
• Donald Trump 21% [19%] (23%) {4%} [1%] 
• Ben Carson 13% [28%] (18%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
• Marco Rubio 10% [9%] (6%) {6%} [4%] (2%) 
• Jeb Bush 6% [5%] (6%) {9%} [9%] (4%)
• Chris Christie 3% [1%] (2%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
• Mike Huckabee 3% [3%] (4%) {9%} [13%] (9%)
• Rand Paul 3% [5%] (4%) {10%} [15%] (10%)
• John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%]  (1%)
• Carly Fiorina 1% [4%] (5%) {2%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (1%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% [0%] (0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% [0%] (0%) {1%}
• George Pataki 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ted Cruz 73% [61%] (61%) {59%} [58%] (52%) / 19% [26%] (24%) {20%} [21%] (18%) {+54%}
• Ben Carson 72% [84%] (79%) {56%} [50%] (41%) / 22% [12%] (8%) {15%} [12%] (8%) {+50%}
• Marco Rubio 70% [70%] (67%) {60%} [57%] (54%) / 21% [20%] (20%) {17%} [20%] (16%) {+49%}
• Donald Trump 57% [59%] (61%) {27%} [26%] / 38% [37%] (35%) {63%} [68%] {+19%}
• Carly Fiorina 52% [66%] (64%) {41%} [15%] / 33% [22%] (15%) {19%} [19%] {+19%}
• Mike Huckabee 53% [61%] (61%) {61%} [66%] (59%) / 38% [33%] (30%) {30%} [28%] (30%) {+15%}
• Chris Christie 46% [39%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (39%) / 42% [49%] (59%) {58%} [54%] (45%) {+4%}
• Rick Santorum 42% [51%] (48%) {56%} [57%] (52%) / 43% [34%] (37%) {28%} [30%] (30%) {-1%}
• Rand Paul 37% [43%] (39%) {55%} [64%] (59%) / 50% [48%] (49%) {34%} [25%] (24%) {-13%}
• Jeb Bush 39% [50%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) / 54% [43%] (50%) {45%} [43%] (28%) {-15%}
• John Kasich 19% [31%] (33%) {25%} [22%]  (17%) / 46% [33%] (22%) {16%} [14%]  (7%) {-27%}
• Lindsey Graham 16% [18%] (15%) {22%} / 53% [53%] (59%) {38%} {-37%} 

"Selzer Score"

• Ted Cruz 97.5 [53.5] (53)
• Donald Trump 72.5 [64.5] (73)
• Ben Carson 67.5 [95.5] (75)
• Marco Rubio 62 [56.5] (50)
• Jeb Bush 39.5 [39] (41)
• Mike Huckabee 39.5 [39] (42)
• Chris Christie 34.5 [26.5] (27)
• Carly Fiorina 34.5 [48] (48.5) 
• Rand Paul 32.5 [35.5] (32.5)
• Rick Santorum 31 [31.5] (32)
• John Kasich 22 [24] (27.5)
• Lindsey Graham 14.5 [12.5] (15)
• George Pataki 9.5 [9.5] (13)
• Jim Gilmore 7 [8.5] (10)

Survey of 400 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted December 7-10, 2015 by Selzer & Co. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 25-29, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 26-29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-7, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Georgia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Landmark/Rosetta Stone Georgia 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 43.1% {30.8%} [34.3%]
• Ted Cruz 16.2% {7.9%} [5.4%] (9.3%)
• Marco Rubio 10.6% {9.4%} [4.5%] (9.6%)
• Ben Carson 6.7% {17.9%} [8.1%] (15.4%)
• Jeb Bush 4.8% {7.5%} [12.0%] (10.1%)
• Mike Huckabee 1.9% {4.4%} [8.1%] (18.3%)
• Carly Fiorina 1.8% {13.2%} (2.6%)
• John Kasich 1.5% {1.9%} [4.5%]
• Rand Paul 0.5% {1.1%} [2.4%] (4.0%)
• Undecided 12.9% {5.9%} [7.5%] (15.6%)

Survey of 800 Republican primary voters was conducted December 10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 5, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 11-12, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) 2016 National Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) 2016 National Presidential Poll

• Marco Rubio (R) 50% {50%} [52%] (50%)
• Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {50%} [48%] (50%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%} [48%] (49%)
• Jeb Bush (R) 49% {50%} [52%] (51%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {49%} [47%] (48%)
• Ben Carson (R) 49% {51%} [53%] (52%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {53%} [50%] (50%)
• Rand Paul (R) 49% {47%} [50%] (50%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {51%} [48%] (46%)
• Donald Trump (R) 49% {49%} [52%] (54%) 

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {53%} [52%] (51%)
• Ted Cruz (R) 48% {47%} [48%] (49%)

• Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {52%} [48%] (50%)
• Carly Fiorina (R) 48% {48%} [52%] (50%)

National survey of 1,995 registered voters was conducted December 7-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. Party ID: 38% {38%} [38%] (38%) Democrat; 32% {32%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 29% {29%} [29%] (29%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

• Hillary Clinton 62% [58.2%] (44.4%) {53.7%} [54.9%] (55%)
• Bernie Sanders 30% [15.6%] (25.4%) {21.0%} [18.4%] (13%)
• Martin O'Malley 9% [2.7%] (1.5%) {2.1%} [2.8%] (2%)

Survey of 731 registered Democratic voters was conducted December 7-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 21-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 1-2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/One America News Network (R) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Gravis Marketing/OAN (R) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 42% (32.7%) {35.6%} [34.7%] (22%) {40.1%} [30.8%] (15%)
• Ted Cruz 16% (7.6%) {5.9%} [7.3%] (6%) {7.0%} [5.6%] (5%)
• Marco Rubio 11% (14.5%) {10.7%} [10.8%] (15%) {4.7%} [5.4%] (8%)
• Ben Carson 9% (22.6%) {21.7%} [17.2%] (12%) {13.0%} [6.1%] (10%)
• Jeb Bush 6% (4.3%) {7.6%} [6.9%] (6%) {10.0%} [13.3%] (22%)
• Chris Christie 4% (2.8%) {1.7%} [2.3%] (4%) {1.4%} [3.4%] (5%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% (6.1%) {5.7%} [8.8%] (22%) {5.2%} [1.9%] (3%)
• John Kasich 2% (2.4%) {2.9%} [3.1%] (4%) {4.8%} [5.1%]
• Mike Huckabee 2% (1.1%) {3.2%} [4.5%] (2%) {3.7%} [5.6%] (10%)
• Rand Paul 2% (4.4%) {1.6%} [2.5%] (2%) {1.5%} [4.4%] (4%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (0.2%) {1.3%} [1.4%] (1%) {1.0%} [1.6%] (1%) 
• Lindsey Graham 1% (0.6%) {1.7%} [0.3%] (0%) {0.6%} [0.7%] (2%)
• George Pataki 0% (0.1%) {0.1%} [0.2%] (0%) {1.1%} [0.2%] (1%)

National survey of 6914 registered Republican voters was conducted December 7-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll released October 29, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 26, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 21-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 29, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 1-2, 2015 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: WBUR/MassINC New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

WBUR/MassINC New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 27% {23%} [18%] (22%)
• Chris Christie 12% {6%} [8%] (2%)
• Marco Rubio 11% {13%} [11%] (2%)
• Ted Cruz 10% {8%} [6%] (5%)
• Jeb Bush 8% {7%} [7%] (9%)
• John Kasich 7% {7%} [10%] (9%)
• Ben Carson 6% {13%} [16%] (18%)
• Carly Fiorina 3% {4%} [6%] (11%) 
• Rand Paul 2% {5%} [3%] (4%)
• Mike Huckabee 1% {1%} [0%] (1%)
• George Pataki 0% {1%} [1%] (0%)
• Lindsey Graham 0% {2%} [0%] (1%)
• Jim Gilmore 0% {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 0% {1%} [0%] (0%)

Which candidate would be your second choice?

• Marco Rubio 15%
• Chris Christie 11%
• Ted Cruz 10%
• Carly Fiorina 9%
• Jeb Bush 9%
• Ben Carson 8%
• Donald Trump 8%
• John Kasich 6%
• Rand Paul 3%
• Lindsey Graham 1%
• Mike Huckabee 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• George Pataki 0%
• Jim Gilmore 0%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Marco Rubio 58% {57%} [56%] (46%) / 22% {20%} [24%] (25%) {+36%}
• Ben Carson 54% {55%} [63%] (58%) / 27% {26%} [19%] (10%) {+27%}
• Carly Fiorina 51% {50%} [53%] (53%) / 27% {27%} [23%] (16%) {+24%}
• Chris Christie 53% {47%} [51%] (39%) / 31% {33%} [31%] (39%) {+22%}
• Ted Cruz 47% {44%} [43%] (39%) / 30% {32%} [32%] (32%) {+17%}
• John Kasich 38% {33%} [37%] (45%) / 34% {39%} [32%] (21%) {+4%}
• Donald Trump 46% {42%} [42%] (45%) / 43% {43%} [42%] (40%) {+3%}
• Jeb Bush 40% {36%} [35%] (40%) / 45% {47%} [50%] (42%) {-5%}
• Mike Huckabee 33% {34%} [35%] (33%) / 47% {48%} [46%] (42%) {-14%} 
• Jim Gilmore 4% {4%} [2%] (4%) / 24% {25%} [21%] (22%) {-20%} 
• Rand Paul 28% {35%} [30%] (33%) / 53% {46%} [52%] (48%) {-25%}
• Lindsey Graham 23% {17%} [18%] (18%) / 49% {51%} [51%] (45%) {-26%}
• Rick Santorum 20% {28%} [21%] (22%) / 53% {43%} [49%] (41%) {-33%}
• George Pataki 10% {20%} [16%] (14%) / 47% {40%} [47%] (37%) {-37%}

Survey of 402 likely GOP primary voters was conducted December 6-8, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted November 14-15, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 29 - November 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 12-14, 2015 are in parentheses.