Poll Watch: Harper (R) 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

Harper Polling (R) 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll 

• Marco Rubio 34% 
• Chris Christie 18% 
• Condoleezza Rice 14% 
• Rand Paul 8% 
• Allen West 5% 
• Scott Brown 3% 
• Undecided 18% 

National survey of 2,746 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 1.87 percentage points. Gender: 48% Male; 52% Female.  Region: 39% South; 24% Midwest; 19% Northeast; 18% West. Age 66+: 49%; Age 55-65: 23%; Age 46-55: 16%; Age 36-45: 7%; Age 18-35: 5%.  Watch Fox News: 80% Yes; 20% No. Support goals of Tea Party movement: 58% Yes; 13% No; 29% Not sure.

Inside the numbers: 

Rubio is strongest in the South and West. In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%. The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio. His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest.

The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle. Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country. They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals.

Allen West and Rand Paul voters in a hypothetical 2016 primary are the strongest supporters of the no-new-taxes pledge at 62% and 60%, respectively. Chris Christie and Condi Rice voters are the most open to exceptions at 44% and 40%, respectively.

Speaking of the TEA party. It is the foundation of Rubio’s support. Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him.

Rice and Scott Brown are the only candidates who do better among women than men.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Survey

PPP (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Poll

• Patrick Murphy (D) 48% (42%)
• Allen West (R) 47% (51%)
• Undecided 5% (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Allen West 45% (49%) / 49% (41%) {-4%}

If your member of Congress opposed a woman's right to choose, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them, or would it make no difference?

• More likely 19%
• Less likely 48%
• Wouldn't make a difference 33%

If your member of Congress voted for Rep. Paul Ryan's budget that would make cuts to Medicare benefits, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them, or would it make no difference?

• More likely 22%
• Less likely 51%
• Wouldn't make a difference 26%

Survey of 631 likely voters in Florida’s 18th Congressional District was conducted October 25-26, 2012 for the CREDO SuperPAC.  Party ID: 43% (40%) Republican; 35% (32%) Democrat; 21% (29%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 15-16, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Survey

PPP (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Poll

• Allen West (R) 51%
• Patrick Murphy (D) 42%
• Undecided 8%

Among Independents

• Allen West (R) 52%
• Patrick Murphy (D) 34%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Allen West 49% / 41% {+8%}
• Patrick Murphy 34% / 47% {-13%}

Survey of 600 likely voters in Florida’s 18th Congressional District was conducted October 15-16, 2012 for FLDemocracy/WPTV/TCPalm. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% Republican; 32% Democrat; 29% Independent/Other.

Inside the numbers:

Allen West has a nine-point lead among women.

West is strongest in Martin County, where he has a 20-point lead, while in St. Lucie County, Murphy trails West by only one percentage point.

The poll found Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama in District 18 by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin.

Asked about the flood of negative ads in the race, 31 percent said the spots have made them more likely to vote for West, while 27 percent said they have made them more likely to back Patrick Murphy. 

Poll Watch: Kimball Political Consulting (R) Florida 18th Congressional District Survey

KPC (R) Florida 18th Congressional District Poll

• Patrick Murphy (D) 49%
• Allen West (R) 45%
• Undecided 6%

Among Men

• Allen West (R) 55%
• Patrick Murphy (D) 41%
• Undecided 5%

Among Women

• Patrick Murphy (D) 57%
• Allen West (R) 36%
• Undecided 8%

St. Lucie County

• Allen West (R) 47%
• Patrick Murphy (D) 46%
• Undecided 8%

Palm Beach County

• Patrick Murphy (D) 58%
• Allen West (R) 37%
• Undecided 5%

Martin County

• Allen West (R) 52%
• Patrick Murphy (D) 43%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Patrick Murphy 45% / 37% {+8%}
• Allen West 42% / 51% {-9%}

Survey of 408 likely voters in Florida’s 18th Congressional District was conducted September 28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party ID: 44.6% Democrat; 33.3% Republican; 22.1% Independent. County: 35.3% St. Lucie; 34.3% Palm Beach; 30.4% Martin County.

Inside the numbers: 

Barack Obama holds a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in the 18th Congressional District (52% to 45%). Three percent (3%) were undecided.

Rep. Allen West Delivers Weekly Republican Address

Poll Watch: Grove Insight (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Survey

Grove Insight (D) Florida 18th Congressional District Poll

• Patrick Murphy (D) 47%
• Allen West (R) 46%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Allen West 43% / 38% {+5%}

Survey of 400 likely voters in Florida’s 18th Congressional District was conducted August 21-24, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 50% {50%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 46% {45%} [44%] (45%) {43%} [44%] (44%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 53% {53%} [49%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (45%)
• Barack Obama 43% {43%} [40%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (46%)

Among Women

• Barack Obama 57% {55%} [48%] (50%) {49%} [49%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 39% {39%} [40%] (43%) {38%} [41%] (42%)

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 49% {50%}
• Romney-Rubio 46% {43%}

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 50% {49%}
• Romney-Bush 45% {46%}

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Allen West, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 49% {50%}
• Romney-West 38% {40%}

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Rick Scott, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 52% {51%}
• Romney-Scott 38% {40%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 39% {41%} [37%] (40%) {41%} [39%] (43%) / 53% {51%} [47%] (46%) {45%} [39%] (38%) {-14%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 24% {34%} [40%] (27%) {42%} [33%] (31%) / 62% {54%} [43%] (55%) {44%} [44%] (43%) {-38%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 45% {49%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [42%] (44%) / 46% {46%} [47%] (42%) {42%} [37%] (43%) {-1%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 32% {34%} [32%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (42%) / 60% {56%} [47%] (49%) {46%} [40%] (32%) {-28%}

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

• Favorable 48% {52%}
• Unfavorable 42% {40%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio's job performance?

• Approve 44% {43%}
• Disapprove 40% {41%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Scott’s job performance?

• Approve 31% {34%}
• Disapprove 56% {54%}

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Allen West?

• Favorable 21% {24%}
• Unfavorable 30% {32%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 49% {51%} [45%] (46%) {48%} [48%] (45%)
• Disapprove 46% {45%} [50%] (51%) {49%} [47%] (49%)

Among Moderates

• Approve 60% {64%} [53%] (64%) {59%} [73%] (62%)
• Disapprove 32% {30%} [39%] (32%) {37%} [24%] (30%)

Among Men

• Approve 42% {43%} [43%] (44%) {44%} [44%] (45%)
• Disapprove 54% {54%} [52%] (53%) {53%} [51%] (52%)

Among Women

• Approve 57% {58%} [46%] (47%) {52%} [52%] (45%)
• Disapprove 38% {38%} [48%] (50%) {45%} [42%] (46%)

Survey of 642 Florida voters was conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 41% {41%} [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 40% {41%} [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 19% {18%} [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 33% {32%} [36%] (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 25% {22%} [23%] (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 16% {19%} [19%] (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 16% {16%} [14%] (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 10% {10%} [9%] (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28 - December 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) 2012 Vice Presidential Favorability Survey

Rasmussen (R) 2012 VP Favorability Poll

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Condoleezza Rice 66% / 24% {+42%}
• Mike Huckabee 44% / 40% {+4%}
• Allen West 27% / 27% {0%}
• Susana Martinez 19% / 23% {-4%}
• Bob McDonnell 20% / 26% {-6%}

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted April 24-25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers: 

Rice is far and away the most popular in the latest batch of five possible vice presidential candidates asked about. She’s also viewed a lot more favorably than an earlier set of candidates including Florida Senator Marco Rubio, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and the man who recently ended his own GOP presidential campaign, former Senator Rick Santorum.

Among Republican voters, 84% hold a favorable opinion of the nation’s chief diplomat under President George W. Bush, giving her double-digit leads over Rubio, Christie and Santorum who all run in the 60s. Running second among the current batch of possible vice presidential candidates is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, an unsuccessful candidate for the party’s presidential nomination in 2008. He’s viewed favorably by 72% of GOP voters.

Among Republicans, 44% like West, 18% don’t, 38% aren’t sure.

Among Republicans, 36% view McDonnell favorably and 26% say the same of Martinez, but 45% and 54% of GOP voters respectively have no opinion of them.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida Survey on Congressman Allen West

PPP (D) Florida Survey on Congressman Allen West

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Allen West?

• Favorable 24%
• Unfavorable 32%

Among Democrats

• Favorable 8%
• Unfavorable 52%

Among Republicans

• Favorable 42%
• Unfavorable 11%

Among Independents

• Favorable 20%
• Unfavorable 37%

Among Moderates

• Favorable 11%
• Unfavorable 41%

Among Men

• Favorable 31%
• Unfavorable 34%

Among Women

• Favorable 18%
• Unfavorable 31%

Among Whites

• Favorable 27%
• Unfavorable 27%

Among Blacks

• Favorable 15%
• Unfavorable 50%

Among Hispanics

• Favorable 17%
• Unfavorable 40%

Survey of 700 Florida voters was conducted April 12-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% Democrat; 41% Republican; 18% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% Moderate; 22% Somewhat conservative; 19% Somewhat liberal; 16% Very conservative; 10% Very liberal. Gender: 55% Women; 45% Men.  Race: 71% White; 13% Hispanic; 11% Black; 5% Other. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 50% [45%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 45% [44%] (45%) {43%} [44%] (44%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the vote in Florida. In 2004, George W. Bush received 52% of the vote in FL.

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 53% [49%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (45%)
• Barack Obama 43% [40%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (46%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 47% of the Male vote in Florida (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 53% of the Male vote in FL (46% of the electorate).

Among Women

• Barack Obama 55% [48%] (50%) {49%} [49%] (46%)
• Mitt Romney 39% [40%] (43%) {38%} [41%] (42%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 47% of the Female vote in Florida (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 50% of the Female vote in FL (54% of the electorate).

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 49%
• Romney-Bush 46%

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 50%
• Romney-Rubio 43%

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Allen West, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 50%
• Romney-West 40%

If the Democratic ticket for President was Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Rick Scott, which would you vote for?

• Obama-Biden 51%
• Romney-Scott 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 41% [37%] (40%) {41%} [39%] (43%) / 51% [47%] (46%) {45%} [39%] (38%) {-10%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 34% [40%] (27%) {42%} [33%] (31%) / 54% [43%] (55%) {44%} [44%] (43%) {-20%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 49% [42%] (44%) {46%} [42%] (44%) / 46% [47%] (42%) {42%} [37%] (43%) {+3%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 34% [32%] (37%) {37%} [36%] (42%) / 56% [47%] (49%) {46%} [40%] (32%) {-22%}

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

• Favorable 52%
• Unfavorable 40%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio's job performance?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Scott’s job performance?

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 54%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Allen West?

• Favorable 24%
• Unfavorable 32%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 51% [45%] (46%) {48%} [48%] (45%)
• Disapprove 45% [50%] (51%) {49%} [47%] (49%)

Among Moderates

• Approve 64% [53%] (64%) {59%} [73%] (62%)
• Disapprove 30% [39%] (32%) {37%} [24%] (30%)

Among Men

• Approve 43% [43%] (44%) {44%} [44%] (45%)
• Disapprove 54% [52%] (53%) {53%} [51%] (52%)

Among Women

• Approve 58% [46%] (47%) {52%} [52%] (45%)
• Disapprove 38% [48%] (50%) {45%} [42%] (46%)

Survey of 700 Florida voters was conducted April 12-15, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 41% [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 18% [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% [36%] (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 22% [23%] (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 19% [19%] (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 16% [14%] (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 10% [9%] (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted November 28 - December 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-20, 2010 are in parentheses.

Face the Nation: GOP Reps: Tea Party Versus Establishment?

CBS News Town Hall Meeting with Republican Leaders Ryan, Coburn, Haley, and West

Below, CBS News' Rebecca Jarvis and MoneyWatch.com's Jill Schlesinger speak with the live audience on whether they were satisfied with responses to their questions:

Reps. Allen West and Donna Edwards Debate Debt, Medicare on Fox News Sunday