Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

• Charlie Crist (D) 47% (50%)
• Rick Scott (R) 37% (34%)

Among Democrats

• Charlie Crist (D) 83% (81%)
• Rick Scott (R) 8% (7%)

Among Republicans

• Rick Scott (R) 75% (76%)
• Charlie Crist (D) 13% (16%)

Among Independents

• Charlie Crist (D) 45% (49%)
• Rick Scott (R) 33% (29%)
  

Among Men

• Charlie Crist (D) 43% (49%)
• Rick Scott (R) 43% (39%)

Among Women

• Charlie Crist (D) 51% (51%)
• Rick Scott (R) 32% (29%)

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?

• Bill Nelson 48%
• Rick Scott 38%

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Nan Rich the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Scott 42%
• Nan Rich 36%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?

• Approve 43% (36%)
• Disapprove 44% (49%)

Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?  

• Yes/Deserves 35% (32%)
• No/Does not 50% (55%)

In the last three years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist?

• Positive thing 47% (50%)
• Negative thing 44% (40%)
  

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 41% /23% {+18%}
• Charlie Crist 48% (49%) / 31% (30%) {+17%}
• Nan Rich 7% / 6% {+1%}
• Rick Scott 40% (33%) / 42% (46%) {-2%}
  

Survey of 1,176 registered voters was conducted June 11-16, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID: 34% (35%) Democrat; 28% (27%) Republican; 30% (31%) Independent; 8% (7%) Other. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 51% [50%] (45%) {45%} [46%] (45%) [45%] {49%} (47%) [46%]
• Connie Mack (R) 46% [42%] (41%) {37%} [37%] (38%) [43%] {36%} (37%) [35%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Connie Mack 38% [36%] (32%) [30%] (27%) [25%] {19%} (20%) [23%] / 43% [46%] (45%) [44%] (45%) [35%] {27%} (27%) [28%] {-5%} 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson’s job performance?

• Approve 44% [44%] (38%) [34%] (35%) [35%] {39%} (36%) [38%] {40%} (38%) [38%] {40%}
• Disapprove 41% [41%] (41%) [41%] (42%) [40%] {31%} (32%) [37%] {32%} (31%) [34%] {35%}

Survey of 955 likely Florida voters was conducted November 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 44% [43%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (41%) [42%] {41%} (41%) [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 38% [38%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (37%) [40%] {40%} (41%) [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 18% [19%] (20%) {22%} [20%] (21%) [19%] {19%} (18%) [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% [34%] {35%} [34%] (36%) [33%] {33%} (32%) [36%] (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 25% [27%] {24%} [25%] (25%) [20%] {25%} (22%) [23%] (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 16% [15%] {17%} [16%] (13%) [20%] {16%} (16%) [14%] (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 15% [14%] {16%} [15%] (16%) [17%] {16%} (19%) [19%] (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 14% [10%] {8%} [10%] (9%) [10%] {10%} (10%) [9%] (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 49% (47%) {48%} [47%] (45%)
• Connie Mack (R) 43% (42%) {40%} [42%] (42%)
• Chris Borgia (NPA) 3% (3%)
• Bill Gaylor (NPA) 1% (1%)
• Undecided 4% (7%) {11%} [11%] (13%)

Among Independents

• Bill Nelson (D) 51% (51%) {53%} [50%]
• Connie Mack (R) 37% (37%) {34%} [39%]
• Other 4% (4%) {3%}
• Undecided 8% (8%) {10%} [11%]

Among Men

• Bill Nelson (D) 46% (43%) {41%} [41%]
• Connie Mack (R) 45% (48%) {47%} [48%]
• Other 5% (5%) {1%}
• Undecided 4% (4%) {11%} [11%]

Among Women

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% (50%) {54%} [52%]
• Connie Mack (R) 41% (37%) {34%} [37%]
• Other 3% (3%) {1%}
• Undecided 4% (10%) {11%} [11%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 41% (39%) {33%} [36%] (42%) / 31% (32%) {29%} [28%] (24%) {+10%}
• Connie Mack 33% (31%) {27%} [30%] (31%) / 37% (30%) {33%} [13%] (11%) {-4%} 

In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve the economy?

• Bill Nelson (D) 48%
• Connie Mack (R) 44%

In the Senate race, who do you feel is more likely to support policies that will improve healthcare?

• Bill Nelson (D) 47%
• Connie Mack (R) 44%

Who do you trust more to look out for Florida's interests in Washington?

• Bill Nelson (D) 48%
• Connie Mack (R) 42%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% (52%) {52%} [51%]
  
• Connie Mack (R) 43% (39%) {41%} [37%]
• Undecided 5% (9%) {7%} [12%]

Survey of 1,545 likely voters was conducted October 30 - November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (37%) {37%} [35%] Democrat; 35% (33%) {32%} [33%] Republican; 27% (29%) {29%} [30%] Independent.  Party registration: 41% (40%) {40%} [41%] Democrat; 41% (39%) {38%} [38%] Republican; 18% (20%) {21%} [20%] Independent.  Ideology: 33% (35%) {37%} [33%] Moderate; 30% (31%) {29%} [31%] Conservative; 19% (16%) {18%} [18%] Liberal; 12% (13%) {13%} [13%] Very conservative; 6% (6%) {4%} [5%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% {53%} [50%] (47%)
• Connie Mack (R) 39% {39%} [41%] (40%)

Among Independents

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% {49%} [45%] (40%)
  
• Connie Mack (R) 36% {40%} [43%] (43%)

Among Men

• Bill Nelson (D) 49% {47%} [46%] (47%)
• Connie Mack (R) 43% {46%} [47%] (44%)
  

Among Women

• Bill Nelson (D) 54% {57%} [54%] (46%)
• Connie Mack (R) 35% {32%} [36%] (38%)

Survey of 1,073 likely voters was conducted October 23-28, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 37% {36%} [34%] (36%) Democrat; 30% {27%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Independent; 4% {4%} [6%] (5%) Other.  Click here to view crosstabs.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-24, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-30, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 49% (43.1%) {41.5%} [43.4%] (46.0%)
• Connie Mack (R) 46% (43.0%) {42.7%} [41.6%] (37.8%)
• Undecided 5% (13.9%) {15.8%} [15.0%] (16.2%)
  

Survey of 549 likely voters was conducted October 30, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (37.1%) {44.0%} [43.6%] (43%) Democrat; 35% (33.3%) {38.4%} [42.2%] (39%) Republican; 22% (29.7%) {17.6%} [14.2%] (18%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 2, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 49% {48%} [47%] (42%)
• Connie Mack (R) 41% {40%} [36%] (48%)
  
• Other 4% {4%} [9%] (2%)
• Undecided 7% {8%} [9%] (8%)

Among Men

• Bill Nelson (D) 47%
• Connie Mack (R) 45%
  
• Other 2%
• Undecided 6%

Among Women

• Bill Nelson (D) 52%
• Connie Mack (R) 37%
  
• Other 5%
• Undecided 7%

Already Voted (23%)

• Bill Nelson (D) 60%
• Connie Mack (R) 36%
  
• Other 2%
• Undecided 1%

Will Vote Before Election Day (27%)

• Bill Nelson (D) 53%
• Connie Mack (R) 35%
  
• Other 3%
• Undecided 9%

Will Vote on Election Day (50%)

• Connie Mack (R) 46%
• Bill Nelson (D) 43%
• Other 4%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 40% {38%} / 32% {29%} {+8%}
• Connie Mack 32% {29%} / 37% {39%} {-5%}

Survey of 595 likely and actual voters was conducted October 25-27, 2012 for WFLA-TV (Tampa).  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 42% {43%} [41%] (39%) Democrat; 37% {34%} [36%] (40%) Republican; 20% {23%} [23%] (21%) Independent. Ideology: 42% {42%} [45%] (39%) Moderate; 35% {32%} [34%] (37%) Conservative; 18% {20%} [17%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Sunshine State News (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Sunshine State News (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 49%
• Connie Mack (R) 44%
• Undecided 7%

Survey of 1,001 likely voters was conducted October 22-24, 2012 by Voter Survey Service. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 49% [48%] (46%) {52%} [47%] (47%) {37%} [47%] (36%) {41%} [39%]
• Connie Mack (R) 46% [43%] (45%) {41%} [40%] (40%) {46%} [36%] (43%) {41%} [43%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Bill Nelson

• Very favorable 29% [24%] (23%) {17%} [21%] (21%)
• Somewhat favorable 20% [26%] (24%) {33%} [30%] (27%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [20%] (16%) {15%} [18%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 27% [21%] (24%) {25%} [20%] (18%)

Connie Mack

• Very favorable 22% [16%] (21%) {15%} [17%] (14%)
• Somewhat favorable 25% [27%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [23%] (20%) {24%} [24%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 27% [26%] (22%) {26%} [24%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 49% [50%] (47%) {50%} [51%] (48%) / 43% [41%] (40%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {+6%}
• Connie Mack 47% [43%] (44%) {38%} [40%] (39%) / 43% [49%] (42%) {50%} [48%] (42%) {+4%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 25, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 18, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Florida allows early voting, and 23% of the state’s likely voters have already cast their ballots. Nelson leads 55% to 41% among these voters.

Mack leads by eight points among male voters but trails by 12 among female voters. Voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties prefer the incumbent by a 58% to 32% margin.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 50% (45%) {45%} [46%] (45%) [45%] {49%} (47%) [46%]
• Connie Mack (R) 42% (41%) {37%} [37%] (38%) [43%] {36%} (37%) [35%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Connie Mack 36% (32%) [30%] (27%) [25%] {19%} (20%) [23%] / 46% (45%) [44%] (45%) [35%] {27%} (27%) [28%] {-10%} 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson’s job performance?

• Approve 44% (38%) [34%] (35%) [35%] {39%} (36%) [38%] {40%} (38%) [38%] {40%}
• Disapprove 41% (41%) [41%] (42%) [40%] {31%} (32%) [37%] {32%} (31%) [34%] {35%}

Survey of 687 likely Florida voters was conducted October 26-28, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% (43%) {41%} [44%] (41%) [42%] {41%} (41%) [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 38% (38%) {37%} [36%] (37%) [40%] {40%} (41%) [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 19% (20%) {22%} [20%] (21%) [19%] {19%} (18%) [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 34% {35%} [34%] (36%) [33%] {33%} (32%) [36%] (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 27% {24%} [25%] (25%) [20%] {25%} (22%) [23%] (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 15% {17%} [16%] (13%) [20%] {16%} (16%) [14%] (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 14% {16%} [15%] (16%) [17%] {16%} (19%) [19%] (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 10% {8%} [10%] (9%) [10%] {10%} (10%) [9%] (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 45% {45%} [46%] (45%) [45%] {49%} (47%) [46%]
• Connie Mack (R) 41% {37%} [37%] (38%) [43%] {36%} (37%) [35%]

Survey of 800 likely Florida voters was conducted October 17-18, 2012 for Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers/WPTV News Channel 5. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% {41%} [44%] (41%) [42%] {41%} (41%) [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 38% {37%} [36%] (37%) [40%] {40%} (41%) [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 20% {22%} [20%] (21%) [19%] {19%} (18%) [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-14, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 48% (46%) {52%} [47%] (47%) {37%} [47%] (36%) {41%} [39%]
• Connie Mack (R) 43% (45%) {41%} [40%] (40%) {46%} [36%] (43%) {41%} [43%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Bill Nelson

• Very favorable 24% (23%) {17%} [21%] (21%)
• Somewhat favorable 26% (24%) {33%} [30%] (27%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 20% (16%) {15%} [18%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 21% (24%) {25%} [20%] (18%)

Connie Mack

• Very favorable 16% (21%) {15%} [17%] (14%)
• Somewhat favorable 27% (23%) {23%} [23%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 23% (20%) {24%} [24%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 26% (22%) {26%} [24%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 50% (47%) {50%} [51%] (48%) / 41% (40%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {+9%}
• Connie Mack 43% (44%) {38%} [40%] (39%) / 49% (42%) {50%} [48%] (42%) {-6%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-five percent (95%) of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are certain to vote in the election. Among these voters, it’s Nelson 48%, Mack 44%.

Florida allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, Nelson has a 56% to 40% lead.

Mack has the support of just 77% of Florida Republicans, while 80% of the state’s Democrats favor Nelson. The incumbent leads by 12 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 48% [47%] (42%)
• Connie Mack (R) 40% [36%] (48%)
  
• Other 4% [9%] (2%)
• Undecided 8% [9%] (8%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 38% / 29% {+9%}
• Connie Mack 29% / 39% {-10%}

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 17-18, 2012 for WFLA-TV (Tampa).  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% [41%] (39%) Democrat; 34% [36%] (40%) Republican; 23% [23%] (21%) Independent. Ideology: 42% [45%] (39%) Moderate; 32% [34%] (37%) Conservative; 20% [17%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-9, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 46% {52%} [47%] (47%) {37%} [47%] (36%) {41%} [39%]
• Connie Mack (R) 45% {41%} [40%] (40%) {46%} [36%] (43%) {41%} [43%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Bill Nelson

• Very favorable 23% {17%} [21%] (21%)
• Somewhat favorable 24% {33%} [30%] (27%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% {15%} [18%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 24% {25%} [20%] (18%)

Connie Mack

• Very favorable 21% {15%} [17%] (14%)
• Somewhat favorable 23% {23%} [23%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 20% {24%} [24%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 22% {26%} [24%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 47% {50%} [51%] (48%) / 40% {40%} [38%] (37%) {+7%}
• Connie Mack 44% {38%} [40%] (39%) / 42% {50%} [48%] (42%) {+2%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Mack, a congressman, now attracts 83% support from Republicans, up from 71% a week ago.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats plan to vote for Nelson, down from 91%.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% prefer Nelson, 32% Mack and 28% remain uncommitted to either candidate.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 45% [46%] (45%) [45%] {49%} (47%) [46%]
• Connie Mack (R) 37% [37%] (38%) [43%] {36%} (37%) [35%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Connie Mack 32% [30%] (27%) [25%] {19%} (20%) [23%] / 45% [44%] (45%) [35%] {27%} (27%) [28%] {-13%} 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill Nelson’s job performance?

• Approve 38% [34%] (35%) [35%] {39%} (36%) [38%] {40%} (38%) [38%] {40%}
• Disapprove 41% [41%] (42%) [40%] {31%} (32%) [37%] {32%} (31%) [34%] {35%}

Survey of 791 likely Florida voters was conducted October 12-14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 41% [44%] (41%) [42%] {41%} (41%) [42%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (42%) Democrat; 37% [36%] (37%) [40%] {40%} (41%) [38%] (37%) {36%} [37%] (40%) Republican; 22% [20%] (21%) [19%] {19%} (18%) [20%] (23%) {21%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 35% [34%] (36%) [33%] {33%} (32%) [36%] (32%) {30%} [30%] Moderate; 24% [25%] (25%) [20%] {25%} (22%) [23%] (27%) {23%} [26%] Somewhat conservative; 17% [16%] (13%) [20%] {16%} (16%) [14%] (16%) {20%} [21%] Very conservative; 16% [15%] (16%) [17%] {16%} (19%) [19%] (14%) {17%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 8% [10%] (9%) [10%] {10%} (10%) [9%] (10%) {10%} [7%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 20-23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 26-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 31 - June 3, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22-25, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 9-10, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 47% {48%} [47%] (45%)
• Connie Mack (R) 42% {40%} [42%] (42%)
• Chris Borgia (NPA) 3%
• Bill Gaylor (NPA) 1%
• Undecided 7% {11%} [11%] (13%)

Among Independents

• Bill Nelson (D) 51% {53%} [50%]
• Connie Mack (R) 37% {34%} [39%]
• Other 4% {3%}
• Undecided 8% {10%} [11%]

Among Men

• Connie Mack (R) 48% {47%} [48%]
• Bill Nelson (D) 43% {41%} [41%]
• Other 5% {1%}
• Undecided 4% {11%} [11%]

Among Women

• Bill Nelson (D) 50% {54%} [52%]
• Connie Mack (R) 37% {34%} [37%]
• Other 3% {1%}
• Undecided 10% {11%} [11%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 39% {33%} [36%] (42%) / 32% {29%} [28%] (24%) {+7%}
• Connie Mack 31% {27%} [30%] (31%) / 30% {33%} [13%] (11%) {+1%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 8-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-19, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% {52%} [51%]
  
• Connie Mack (R) 39% {41%} [37%]
• Undecided 9% {7%} [12%]

Survey of 988 likely voters was conducted October 7-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 37% {37%} [35%] Democrat; 33% {32%} [33%] Republican; 29% {29%} [30%] Independent.  Party registration: 40% {40%} [41%] Democrat; 39% {38%} [38%] Republican; 20% {21%} [20%] Independent.  Ideology: 35% {37%} [33%] Moderate; 31% {29%} [31%] Conservative; 16% {18%} [18%] Liberal; 13% {13%} [13%] Very conservative; 6% {4%} [5%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 1, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% [47%] (47%) {37%} [47%] (36%) {41%} [39%]
• Connie Mack (R) 41% [40%] (40%) {46%} [36%] (43%) {41%} [43%]

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Bill Nelson

• Very favorable 17% [21%] (21%)
• Somewhat favorable 33% [30%] (27%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% [18%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 25% [20%] (18%)

Connie Mack

• Very favorable 15% [17%] (14%)
• Somewhat favorable 23% [23%] (25%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 24% [24%] (20%)
• Very unfavorable 26% [24%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Nelson 50% [51%] (48%) / 40% [38%] (37%) {+10%}
• Connie Mack 38% [40%] (39%) / 50% [48%] (42%) {-12%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 9, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-three percent (93%) of likely Florida voters say they are certain to vote this election cycle. Among these voters, it's Nelson 51%, Mack 44%.

Nelson earns 52% support among both male and female voters in Florida. He also leads among young and middle-aged voters but trails Mack among those 65 and older.

Mack draws support from only 71% of Florida Republicans. Twenty-four percent (24%) of GOP voters in the state and 91% of Democrats prefer Nelson. The candidates run even among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

We Ask America (R) Florida 2012 Senate Poll

• Connie Mack (R) 43.9% (41.5%)
• Bill Nelson (D) 43.8% (46.7%)
• Undecided 12.3% (11.8%)

Survey of 1,200+ likely voters was conducted October 4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% Republican; 33% Democrat; 29% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 18, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Florida 2012 Senatorial Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Florida 2012 Senate Poll

Likely Voters

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% [51%]
  
• Connie Mack (R) 41% [37%]
• Undecided 7% [12%]

Registered Voters

• Bill Nelson (D) 52% [51%] (46%)
  
• Connie Mack (R) 38% [35%] (42%)
• Undecided 10% [14%] (12%) 

Survey of 1,191 registered voters, including 890 likely voters, was conducted September 30 - October 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points among registered voters; +/- 3.3 percentage points among likely voters. Party registration (among registered voters): 40% [42%] (43%) Democrat; 36% [36%] (35%) Republican; 22% [22%] (21%) Independent.  Party registration (among likely voters): 40% [41%] Democrat; 38% [38%] Republican; 21% [20%] Independent.  Ideology (among registered voters): 37% [34%] (34%) Moderate; 28% [30%] (29%) Conservative; 18% [18%] (19%) Liberal; 13% [12%] (12%) Very conservative; 4% [6%] (6%) Very liberal.  Ideology (among likely voters): 37% [33%] Moderate; 29% [31%] Conservative; 18% [18%] Liberal; 13% [13%] Very conservative; 4% [5%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2012 are in parentheses.