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PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senate Poll
The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Bruce Braley, Republican Joni Ernst,
Libertarian Douglas Butzier, Bob Quast, Ruth
Smith, and independent Rick Stewart. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% (44%) {40%}
- Bruce Braley (D) 45% (42%) {41%}
- Douglas Butzier (L) 1% (2%) {2%}
- Rick Stewart (I) 1% (1%) {2%}
- Bob Quast 0% (1%) {0%}
- Ruth Smith 0% (0%) {1%}
- Undecided 5% (10%) {14%}
Horse race, with third-party supporters and undecideds asked if they lean Braley
or Ernst:
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% {48%} [47%] (45%) {42%} [39%] (35%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 46% {47%} [48%] (43%) {42%} [45%] (41%)
- Undecided 5% {5%} [5%] (12%) {16%} [16%] (23%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 53% [49%] (48%) {50%} [48%] (43%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 42% [48%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (41%)
- Undecided 5% [3%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (16%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 50% [48%] (44%) {44%} [50%] (42%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 46% [46%] (42%) {35%} [31%] (28%)
- Undecided 4% [7%] (15%) {21%} [20%] (30%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 46% [48%] (42%) {36%} [27%] (9%) / 45% [47%] (46%) {46%} [32%] (12%) {+1%}
- Bruce Braley 42% [47%] (37%) {37%} [29%] (31%) / 45% [46%] (44%) {41%} [29%] (25%) {-3%}
Survey of 1,265 likely voters was
conducted November 1-3, 2014. Party ID: 37% {37%} [37%] (36%) {34%} [34%] (31%)
Republican; 35% {41%} [36%] (35%) {35%} [38%] (37%) Democrat; 27% {22%} [27%] (29%) {31%} [28%] (32%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 15-16, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% [47%] (45%) {42%} [39%] (35%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 47% [48%] (43%) {42%} [45%] (41%)
- Undecided 5% [5%] (12%) {16%} [16%] (23%)
Survey of 617 likely voters was
conducted October 30-31, 2014 on behalf of the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Party ID: 41% [36%] (35%) {35%} [38%] (37%) Democrat; 37% [37%] (36%) {34%} [34%] (31%)
Republican; 22% [27%] (29%) {31%} [28%] (32%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 15-16, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 47% (49%) {48%} [47%] (50%) {40%} [29%] (38%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 47% (45%) {46%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (44%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 52% (56%) {55%} [56%] (56%) {44%} [33%] (44%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 44% (39%) {38%} [38%] (39%) {40%} [40%] (39%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 51% (50%) {53%} [52%] (50%) {47%} [44%] (49%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 42% (42%) {40%} [39%] (44%) {36%} [27%] (31%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 47% (45%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {34%} [13%] / 45% (43%) {42%} [41%] (39%) {28%} [6%] {+2%}
- Bruce Braley 43% (40%) {43%} [42%] (38%) {35%} [35%] / 45% (43%) {43%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [18%] {-2%}
Survey of 778 likely voters was
conducted October 28 - November 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 34% (31%) {32%} [30%] (26%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Democrat; 31% (35%) {31%} [29%] (28%) {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 32% (30%) {32%} [34%] (41%) {40%} [39%]
(40%) Independent; 4% (4%) {6%} [7%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted October 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 51% [46.7%] (44%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 44% [45.5%] (38%)
- Someone else (vol.) 1% [3%]
- Not sure 4% [4%] (12%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 58% [54%] (55%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 36% [38%] (30%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 51% [53%] (46%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 44% [39%] (33%)
Survey of 701 likely voters was
conducted October 28-31, 2014 by Selzer & Company. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 3-8, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 21-24, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Bruce Braley (D) 42.9% (44%) {44%} [44%] (47%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 41.9% (44%) {43%} [42%] (48%)
- Other 2.6% (1%) {1%} [2%]
- Not sure 12.7% (11%) {12%} [13%]
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% (51%) {51%} [48%]
- Bruce Braley (D) 37% (39%) {40%} [40%]
- Other 2% (2%) {1%} [2%]
- Not sure 13% (8%) {9%} [9%]
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 48% (49%) {47%} [47%]
- Joni Ernst (R) 36% (37%) {36%} [37%]
- Other 3% (1%) {1%} [1%]
- Not sure 13% (13%) {15%} [16%]
Survey of 1,112 likely voters was
conducted October 25-31, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 16-23, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 45% (41%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 44% (41%)
- Another candidate 4% (6%)
- Don't know 7% (12%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 52% (45%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 37% (37%)
- Another candidate 3% (6%)
- Don't know 8% (11%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 51% (44%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 38% (36%)
- Another candidate 4% (7%)
- Don't know 6% (14%)
Survey of 911 likely voters was
conducted October 28-30, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (36%) Democrat; 36% (34%) Republican; 24% (25%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% (48%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 47% (49%)
Among Independents
- Joni Ernst (R) 50% (49%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 42% (46%)
Among Moderates
- Bruce Braley (D) 66% (60%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 29% (37%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 55% (56%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 40% (41%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 54% (57%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 42% (41%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 49% (47%) / 47% (47%) {+2%}
- Bruce Braley 49% (48%) / 47% (43%) {+2%}
Survey of 647 likely voters was
conducted October 27-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 31% Republican; 37% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 8-10, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% [48%] (43%) {43%} [45%] (37%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 47% [45%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (40%)
Survey of 990 likely voters was
conducted October 28-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 8-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 17-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 11-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 45%
- Bruce Braley (D) 45%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 50% / 50% {0%}
- Bruce Braley 48% / 52% {-4%}
Online survey of 1,129 likely voters was
conducted October 23-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Republican; 32% Democrat; 34% Independent.
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% {48%} [47%] (50%) {40%} [29%] (38%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 45% {46%} [45%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (44%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 56% {55%} [56%] (56%) {44%} [33%] (44%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 39% {38%} [38%] (39%) {40%} [40%] (39%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 50% {53%} [52%] (50%) {47%} [44%] (49%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 42% {40%} [39%] (44%) {36%} [27%] (31%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 45% {48%} [47%] (45%) {34%} [13%] / 43% {42%} [41%] (39%) {28%} [6%] {+2%}
- Bruce Braley 40% {43%} [42%] (38%) {35%} [35%] / 43% {43%} [44%] (41%) {26%} [18%] {-3%}
Survey of 817 likely voters was
conducted October 22-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 35% {31%} [29%] (28%) {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 31% {32%} [30%] (26%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Democrat; 30% {32%} [34%] (41%) {40%} [39%]
(40%) Independent; 4% {6%} [7%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted October 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in parentheses.
- Bruce Braley (D) 45.3% {42.1%} [45.3%] (41.7%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 44.2% {42.4%} [40.5%] (48.0%)
- Other candidate 2.3% {3.7%}
- Undecided 8.2% {11.8%} [14.2%] (10.3%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 42.6% {42.5%} [36.9%] (42.2%) / 41.7% {37.2%} [39.5%] (29.2%) {+0.9%}
- Bruce Braley 39.2% {37.0%} [36.3%] (35.8%) / 40.0% {35.8%} [33.7%] (25.7%) {-0.8%}
Survey of 1,121 likely voters was
conducted October 21-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.93 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1-3, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 2-5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 44% {43%} [42%] (48%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 44% {44%} [44%] (47%)
- Other 1% {1%} [2%]
- Not sure 11% {12%} [13%]
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 51% {51%} [48%]
- Bruce Braley (D) 39% {40%} [40%]
- Other 2% {1%} [2%]
- Not sure 8% {9%} [9%]
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 49% {47%} [47%]
- Joni Ernst (R) 37% {36%} [37%]
- Other 1% {1%} [1%]
- Not sure 13% {15%} [16%]
Survey of 2,322 likely voters was
conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% [46%] (43%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 46% [44%] (43%)
- Other 1% [1%] (1%)
- Undecided 4% [9%] (14%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 54% [53%] (48%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 42% [35%] (40%)
- Other 0% [1%] (1%)
- Undecided 4% [12%] (11%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 49% [52%] (45%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 44% [41%] (37%)
- Other 2% [0%] (1%)
- Undecided 5% [7%] (17%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 44% [44%] (38%) / 44% [44%] (33%) {0%}
- Bruce Braley 39% [39%] (36%) / 46% [44%] (32%) {-7%}
Survey of 772 likely voters was
conducted October 18-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 27 - October 1, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% [50%] (43%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 43% [41%] (44%)
- Unsure 8% [10%] (13%)
Survey of 964 likely voters was
conducted October 20-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 37% [32%] (33%) Democrat; 30% [32%] (32%) Republican; 33%
[35%] (34%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-18, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% [47%] (50%) {40%} [29%] (38%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 46% [45%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (44%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 55% [56%] (56%) {44%} [33%] (44%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 38% [38%] (39%) {40%} [40%] (39%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 53% [52%] (50%) {47%} [44%] (49%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 40% [39%] (44%) {36%} [27%] (31%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 48% [47%] (45%) {34%} [13%] / 42% [41%] (39%) {28%} [6%] {+6%}
- Bruce Braley 43% [42%] (38%) {35%} [35%] / 43% [44%] (41%) {26%} [18%] {0%}
Survey of 964 likely voters was
conducted October 15-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 32% [30%] (26%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Democrat; 31% [29%] (28%) {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 32% [34%] (41%) {40%} [39%]
(40%) Independent; 6% [7%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted October 8-13, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 47%
- Bruce Braley (D) 46%
- Other candidate 5%
- Undecided 2%
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 54%
- Bruce Braley (D) 41%
- Other candidate 3%
- Undecided 2%
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 50%
- Joni Ernst (R) 40%
- Other candidate 6%
- Undecided 3%
Survey of 423 likely voters was
conducted October 18-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.
- Bruce Braley (D) 48% (43%) {42%} [45%] (41%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 47% (45%) {42%} [39%] (35%)
- Undecided 5% (12%) {16%} [16%] (23%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 49% (48%) {50%} [48%] (43%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 48% (43%) {40%} [39%] (41%)
- Undecided 3% (9%) {9%} [12%] (16%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 48% (44%) {44%} [50%] (42%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 46% (42%) {35%} [31%] (28%)
- Undecided 7% (15%) {21%} [20%] (30%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 48% (42%) {36%} [27%] (9%) / 47% (46%) {46%} [32%] (12%) {+1%}
- Bruce Braley 47% (37%) {37%} [29%] (31%) / 46% (44%) {41%} [29%] (25%) {+1%}
Survey of 714 likely voters was
conducted October 15-16, 2014 on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 37% (36%) {34%} [34%] (31%)
Republican; 36% (35%) {35%} [38%] (37%) Democrat; 27% (29%) {31%} [28%] (32%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 47.0% (40.0%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 43.2% (40.2%)
- Rick Stewart (I) 1.2% (2.2%)
- Douglas Butzier (L) 0.6% (1.0%)
- Bob Quast 0.6% (0.6%)
- Ruth Smith 0.0% (1.0%)
- Undecided 7.4% (14.8%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 51% (42%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 38% (39%)
- Rick Stewart (I) 2% (2%)
- Douglas Butzier (L) 1% (2%)
- Bob Quast 0% (0%)
- Ruth Smith 0% (0%)
- Undecided 8% (14%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 48% (41%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 43% (38%)
- Rick Stewart (I) 2% (3%)
- Bob Quast 1% (1%)
- Douglas Butzier (L) 0%
- Ruth Smith 0% (2%)
- Undecided 7% (15%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 46.0% (41.4%) / 42.4% (41.4%) {+3.6%}
- Bruce Braley 42.6% (40.6%) / 44.8% (35.2%) {-2.2%}
Survey of 500 likely voters was
conducted October 11-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party registration: 33.4% (31.6%) Democrat; 33.4% (31.6%)
Republican; 33.2% (36.8%) Independent/No party. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2014 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 47% (50%) {40%} [29%] (38%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 45% (44%) {44%} [42%] (44%)
Among Men
- Joni Ernst (R) 56% (56%) {44%} [33%] (44%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 38% (39%) {40%} [40%] (39%)
Among Women
- Bruce Braley (D) 52% (50%) {47%} [44%] (49%)
- Joni Ernst (R) 39% (44%) {36%} [27%] (31%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joni Ernst 47% (45%) {34%} [13%] / 41% (39%) {28%} [6%] {+6%}
- Bruce Braley 42% (38%) {35%} [35%] / 44% (41%) {26%} [18%] {-2%}
Survey of 967 likely voters was
conducted October 8-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 30% (26%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Democrat; 29% (28%) {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 34% (41%) {40%} [39%]
(40%) Independent; 7% (5%) {5%} [7%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in parentheses.
- Joni Ernst (R) 48% (43%) {43%} [45%] (37%)
- Bruce Braley (D) 45% (43%) {43%} [44%] (40%)
Survey of 957 likely voters was
conducted October 8-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 11-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses.
