Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Bruce Braley, Republican Joni Ernst, Libertarian Douglas Butzier, Bob Quast, Ruth Smith, and independent Rick Stewart. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
  • Joni Ernst (R) 44% {40%}
  • Bruce Braley (D) 42% {41%}
  • Douglas Butzier (L) 2% {2%} 
  • Rick Stewart (I) 1% {2%}
  • Bob Quast 1% {0%}
  • Ruth Smith 0% {1%}
  • Undecided 10% {14%}
Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if they lean Braley or Ernst
  • Joni Ernst (R) 45% {42%} [39%] (35%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 43% {42%} [45%] (41%)
  • Not sure 12% {16%} [16%] (23%)
Among Men
  • Joni Ernst (R) 48% {50%} [48%] (43%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 43% {40%} [39%] (41%)
  • Not sure 9% {9%} [12%] (16%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 44% {44%} [50%] (42%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 42% {35%} [31%] (28%)
  • Not sure 15% {21%} [20%] (30%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Joni Ernst 42% {36%} [27%] (9%) / 46% {46%} [32%] (12%) {-4%}
  • Bruce Braley 37% {37%} [29%] (31%) / 44% {41%} [29%] (25%) {-7%}
Survey of 1,192 likely voters was conducted September 25-28, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 36% {34%} [34%] (31%) Republican; 35% {35%} [38%] (37%) Democrat; 29% {31%} [28%] (32%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 33% {29%} [27%] (30%) Moderate; 21% {23%} [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 18% {17%} [19%] (14%) Very conservative; 17% {20%} [18%] (22%) Somewhat liberal; 12% {11%} [14%] (10%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

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