Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Survey on Benghazi

CNN/ORC Poll on Benghazi
  
As you may know, in September, terrorists attacked the U.S. consulate in Libya and killed the U.S. ambassador to that country and three other U.S. citizens. Based on what you have read or heard, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Obama administration has handled this matter in the past few months?

Among Registered Voters

• Satisfied 42%
• Dissatisfied 51% 

Among Independents

• Satisfied 33%
• Dissatisfied 58%

Among Moderates

• Satisfied 43%
• Dissatisfied 54%

As you may know, immediately after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya, some Obama administration officials made inaccurate public statements about that incident. Which of the following statements comes closer to your view:

Among Registered Voters 

• Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 42%
• Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information available 55%

Among Independents

• Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 48%
• Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information available 48%

Among Moderates

• Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 31%
• Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information available 63%

Survey of 620 adults, including a subsample of registered voters, was conducted December 17-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 34% Democrat; 25% Republican; 41% Independent.

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CBS News 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% (49%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% (46%) 

Independents

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 46% (44%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 42% (50%)

Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (52%)
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 47% (44%) 

Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 50% (53%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 45% (41%) 

Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?

• Strongly favor 65% (65%)
• Like with reservations 20% (20%)
• Dislike Romney 13% (12%)

Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?

• Strongly favor 61% (47%)
• Like with reservations 22% (27%)
• Dislike Obama 15% (23%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 47% (44%) / 42% (44%) {+5%}
• Mitt Romney 43% (37%) / 40% (38%) {+3%}

Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

The Federal Budget Deficit

• Mitt Romney 48% (51%)
• Barack Obama 42% (43%)

The Economy and Unemployment

• Mitt Romney 48% (46%)
• Barack Obama 45% (47%) 

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 50% (49%)
• Mitt Romney 41% (39%)

Which candidate would do a better job handling terrorism and national security?

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 42%

Which candidate would do a better job handling U.S. policy towards China

• Barack Obama 44%
• Mitt Romney 44%

Which candidate would do a better job handling U.S. policy towards Iran? 

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mitt Romney 43%

Which candidate would do a better job handling U.S. policy towards Israel?

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Barack Obama 42%

Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?

• Does 59% (60%)
• Does not 38% (37%)

Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?

• Does 48% (46%)
• Does not 48% (48%)

Do you think Barack Obama has offered specific ideas to solve the important problems facing the country today?

• Yes 52%
• No 44%
  

Do you think Mitt Romney has offered specific ideas to solve the important problems facing the country today?

• Yes 45%
  
• No 50%

How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama’s ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

• A lot 38% (39%)
• Some 24% (26%)
• A little 15% (13%)
• None at all 22% (21%)

How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney’s ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

• A lot 30% (26%)
• Some 28% (32%)
• A little 16% (15%)
• None at all 25% (22%)

Do you think the recent economic expansion of China has been generally good for the U.S. economy, or bad for the US economy, or had no effect on the U.S. economy?

• Generally good 15%
• Generally bad 54%
• No effect 12%

Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?

• Doing the right thing 31%
• Should not be involved 59% 

Among Democrats

• Doing the right thing 23%
• Should not be involved 67% 

Among Republicans

• Doing the right thing 50%
• Should not be involved 39% 

Thinking about Iran, which comes closer to your opinion? 1. Iran is a threat to the United States that requires military action now. 2. Iran is a threat that can be contained with diplomacy now. 3. Iran is not a threat to the United States at this time.

• Threat to U.S. requiring military action now 22%
• Threat can be contained with diplomacy now 52%
• Not a threat to U.S. at this time 17%
  

Among Democrats

• Threat to U.S. requiring military action now 9%
• Threat can be contained with diplomacy now 61%
• Not a threat to U.S. at this time 22%
  

Among Republicans

• Threat to U.S. requiring military action now 39%
• Threat can be contained with diplomacy now 45%
• Not a threat to U.S. at this time 7%
  

If Israel were to attack Iran to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, then what should the U.S. do? Should the U.S. support Israel's military action, or should the U.S. not get involved? 

• Support Israel's military action 53%
• Should not get involved 39%

Among Democrats

• Support Israel's military action 43%
• Should not get involved 47%

Among Republicans

• Support Israel's military action 75%
• Should not get involved 19%

Do you think the Obama Administration had information that could have prevented the recent attacks on American embassies and consulates in the Middle East, or didn't they have that information?

• Had information that could've prevented attacks 42%
• Did not have information 35% 

Among Democrats

• Had information that could've prevented attacks 21%
  
• Did not have information 52% 

Among Republicans

• Had information that could've prevented attacks 66%
• Did not have information 19% 

Among Independents

• Had information that could've prevented attacks 41%
• Did not have information 33%

Who do you think will win the next presidential debate?

• Barack Obama 42%
• Mitt Romney 34%

Survey of 790 likely voters was conducted October 17-20, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% (35%) Democrat; 32% (29%) Republican; 35% (32%) Independent.  Ideology: (42%) Conservative; (33%) Moderate; (22%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-12, 2012 are in parentheses. 

Poll Watch: Washington Times/Zogby 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Times/Zogby 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama (D) 49.7% (44.5%) [49.7%] {45.7%} (42.0%) [43.2%]
• Mitt Romney (R) 47.3% (45.1%) [41.1%] {45.7%} (42.8%) [43.6%]
• Not sure 3.0% (10.4%) [9.2%] {5%} [13.0%]

(Among Obama Voters) Which of the following best describes why you are voting for Barack Obama?

• Want to see him re-elected 56% (66.6%) [61.3%]
• Really dislike Romney 14% (14.7%) [14.5%]
• He is the lesser of two evils 13.8% (8.2%) [11.7%]
• Simply voting for Democrat 11.4% (8.5%) [9.1%]
• Not sure 4.8% (2.0%) [3.4%]

(Among Romney Voters) Which of the following best describes why you are voting for Mitt Romney?

• Think he is the best candidate 70.5% (69.4%) [58.2%]
• Really dislike Obama 15.5% (13.4%) [16.0%]
• He is the lesser of two evils 11.1% (12.8%) [16.1%]
• Simply voting for GOP 1.7% (2.4%) [5.8%]
• Not sure 1.3% (2.1%) [3.9%]

Based on what you saw or read about the second presidential debate, who do you think won?

• Barack Obama 41.5% (14.4%)
• Mitt Romney 27.9% (64.9%)
• It was a tie 26.8% (13.0%)
• Not sure 3.9% (7.7%)

Note: Results from the poll conducted after the first presidential debate are in parentheses.

In the debate, Mitt Romney said he can cut tax rates across the board to boost jobs while still finding a way to balance the deficit. Barack Obama said the math doesn't add up, and
Romney cannot do both. Which do you think is correct?

• Romney's math adds up - he can cut taxes and balance the budget 41.1% (43.7%)
• Romney's math doesn't add up, and he cannot do both 49.0% (43.7%)
• Not sure 9.8% (12.6%)
  

Note: Results from the poll conducted after the first presidential debate are in parentheses.

 

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win November's presidential election?

• Barack Obama 49.4% (54.1%) [57.4%] {48%} (44.9%)
• Mitt Romney 37.7% (32.4%) [29.9%] {37%} (32.8%)

Who do you think would make a better first lady?

• Michelle Obama 36.3%
• Ann Romney 25.9%
• Both equally suited 17.2%
• Don't prefer either 11.9%
• Not sure 8.8%

Who is to blame for mishandling the terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libya that left the ambassador and three other Americans dead?

• White House 29.2%
• State Dept. 16.1%
• Defense Dept. 5.2%
• Congress 3.1%
• No one -- the attack was not mishandled 30.3%
• Not sure 16.1%
  

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 18-20, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 5-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 23-25, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-12, 2012 are in square brackets. 

Inside the numbers:

Mr. Romney holds a slight lead among independents (49%-42%) and the two candidates are nearly tied among women, with Mr. Obama polling 50% to Mr. Romney’s 47%. On the other hand, the two are pretty much tied among men now (Obama 49% to Romney’s 47%). Thus, the real gap, as noted before in this column, is the marriage gap – especially married women vs. single women.

Mr. Romney now hits 58% among white voters, his best performance yet, but Mr. Obama is outperforming his 2008 showing by polling 40%. As I have written before, the former Massachusetts Governor must get an even larger share of whites to offset what will be a declining share of the total vote in 2012. Mr. Obama continues to consolidate his leads among Hispanics (74%-26%, larger than his 67%-31% victory in 2008) and African Americans (89%-6%, compared with 95%-5% in 2008).

Adding Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and other third-party candidates into the mix doesn’t change the race much. Mr. Johnson collects 3 percent of the vote, and others get less — and Mr. Obama still leads Mr. Romney by 2 percentage points.

Mr. Obama was seen as the winner of last week’s second presidential debate, 42 percent to 28 percent, over Mr. Romney, according to the 80 percent of likely voters who watched at least part of it. But the debate didn’t move the needle much — about 6 percent said it swayed them toward Mr. Obama, and 7 percent said they moved toward Mr. Romney.

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Poll Watch: Pew Research Survey on President Obama and Mitt Romney's Reactions to Turmoil in the Middle East

Pew Research Poll on Obama and Romney's Reactions to Turmoil in the Middle East

Thinking about the recent attacks on U.S. embassies and consulates in the Middle East and the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya:

From what you’ve seen and heard, do you approve or disapprove of how Barack Obama has handled this situation? 

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 36%

Have Followed Middle East Turmoil Very Closely

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 43%

Do you approve or disapprove of the comments Mitt Romney has made about this situation? 

• Approve 26%
• Disapprove 48%

Have Followed Middle East Turmoil Very Closely

• Approve 34%
• Disapprove 49%

National survey of 854 adults who have followed news stories about the attacks on American embassies and consulates in the Middle East and the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Libya was conducted September 13-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers: 

While 75% of Democrats approve of Obama’s handling of Middle East turmoil, fewer Republicans (58%) approve of Romney’s comments on the situation.

There are only modest partisan differences in attentiveness to the recent attacks on the embassies and the killing of the U.S. ambassador: 48% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats and 45% of independents have followed this story very closely.

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