Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times 2012 Presidential Survey

CBS News/New York Times 2012 Presidential Poll

Likely Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 49%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 46% 

Independents

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 50%
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 44% 

Men

• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 52%
• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 44% 

Women

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 53%
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 41% 

Registered Voters

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 51% [46%] (46%) {43%} [46%] (47%) {48%} [45%] (45%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 43% [45%] (47%) {46%} [46%] (44%) {42%} [45%] (47%)

Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?

• Strongly favor 65%
• Like with reservations 20%
• Dislike Romney 12%

Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?

• Strongly favor 47%
• Like with reservations 27%
• Dislike Obama 23%

(Among Obama Voters) If you had to choose, which comes closer to your opinion? 1. I am voting for Barack Obama mainly because I like the direction he is taking the country. OR 2. I am voting for Barack Obama mainly because I dislike the direction in which Mitt Romney would take the country.

• Like Obama 62%
• Dislike Romney 30%

(Among Romney Voters) Which of these comes closer to your opinion? 1. I am voting for Mitt Romney mainly because I like the direction he would take the country. OR 2. I am voting for Mitt Romney mainly because I dislike the direction Barack Obama is taking the country.

• Like Romney 50%
• Dislike Obama 39%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 46%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 51%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Michelle Obama 61% / 20% {+41%}
• Bill Clinton 64% / 27% {+37%}
• Ann Romney 35% / 12% {+23%}
• Paul Ryan 29% / 26% {+3%}
• Barack Obama 44% / 44% {0%}
• Mitt Romney 37% / 38% {-1%}
• Joe Biden 33% / 37% {-4%}

In general, which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far — Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat disappointed or very disappointed?

• Very satisfied 17%
• Somewhat satisfied 29%
• Somewhat disappointed 20%
• Very disappointed 33%

Do you think Joe Biden has the ability to be an effective president if necessary, or not?

• Yes 39%
• No 49%

Do you think Paul Ryan has the ability to be an effective president if necessary, or not?

• Yes 37%
• No 38%

Do you think Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy, or not?

• Is 53%
• Is not 33%

Do you think Paul Ryan is honest and trustworthy, or not?

• Is 39%
• Is not 28%

Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Health Care

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 46% 

The Federal Budget Deficit

• Mitt Romney 51%
• Barack Obama 43%

The Economy and Unemployment

• Barack Obama 47%
• Mitt Romney 46% 

Foreign Policy

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 39%

Taxes

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 46%

Medicare

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mitt Romney 43%

Help Middle Class Americans

• Barack Obama 54%
• Mitt Romney 40%

Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?

• Does 60%
• Does not 37%

Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself?

• Does 46%
• Does not 48%

Do you think Barack Obama says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?

• Says what he believes 54%
• Says what people want 43%

Do you think Mitt Romney says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?

• Says what he believes 42%
• Says what people want 53%

Do you think Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy, or not?

• Yes 58%
• No 37%

Do you think Mitt Romney is honest and trustworthy, or not?

• Yes 53%
• No 36%

How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama’s ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

• A lot 39%
• Some 26%
• A little 13%
• None at all 21%

How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney’s ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

• A lot 26%
• Some 32%
• A little 15%
• None at all 22%

Do you think Barack Obama has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were re-elected president, or not?

• Yes, he has 59%
• No, he has not 37%

Do you think Mitt Romney has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were elected president, or not?

• Yes, he has 50%
• No, he has not 44%

Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

• Improving now 26%
• Will improve 30%
• No improvement 41%

These days, who do you blame more for the difficulties in reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress — the Republicans in Congress or Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress?

• Republicans in Congress 44%
• Barack Obama 31%

Which candidate do you think is running a more negative campaign -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Barack Obama 32%

As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters. What do you think -- do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote?

• Support 71%
• Oppose 27%

Survey of 1,170 registered voters and 1,162 likely voters was conducted September 8-12, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID (among likely voters): 35% Democrat; 29% Republican; 32% Independent.  Ideology: 42% Conservative; 33% Moderate; 22% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 22-26, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-16, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-17, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-17, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4-8, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Mr. Obama has an advantage among likely voters of 12 percentage points among women, the poll found, while Mr. Romney holds the upper hand among men by eight percentage points. Mr. Obama leads his Republican rival across all ages of voters, except those who are 65 or older, who favor Mr. Romney by 15 percentage points.

The poll found that Mr. Obama holds an advantage of 21 percentage points over Mr. Romney among voters whose household income is under $50,000. Mr. Romney has an edge in higher income groups, including leading Mr. Obama by 16 percentage points among voters whose household income is more than $100,000.