Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 45% [44%] (51%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 31% [29%] (31%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 21% [18%]
• Undecided 3% [7%] (11%)

Survey of 908 likely voters was conducted October 22-26, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 25-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 43% {35%} [39%] (44%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 32% {28%} [28%] (30%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 19% {32%} [25%] (17%)
• Gordon Howie (I) 2% {3%} [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 4% {2%} [5%] (5%)

Survey of 611 likely voters was conducted October 21-26, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 1-5, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 3-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 6-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Mason-Dixon South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 42%
• Rick Weiland (D) 33%
• Larry Pressler (I) 13%
• Gordon Howie (I) 2%
• Undecided 10%

Among Men

• Mike Rounds (R) 47%
• Rick Weiland (D) 31%
• Larry Pressler (I) 13%
• Gordon Howie (I) 2%
• Undecided 7%

Among Women

• Mike Rounds (R) 37%
• Rick Weiland (D) 35%
• Larry Pressler (I) 13%
• Gordon Howie (I) 2%
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 20-23, 2014 for KELO-TV and the Argus Leader. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 38% {42%} [43%] (61%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 25% {27%} [29%] (34%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 21% {12%} [6%]
• Other 0% {1%} [1%]
• Not sure 17% {17%} [21%]

Among Men

• Mike Rounds (R) 39% {48%} [48%]
• Larry Pressler (I) 24% {13%} [6%]
• Rick Weiland (D) 20% [22%} [26%]
• Other 0% {1%} [2%]
• Not sure 17% {16%} [17%]

Among Women

• Mike Rounds (R) 37% {35%} [36%]
• Rick Weiland (D) 30% {34%} [33%]
• Larry Pressler (I) 16% {10%} [6%]
• Other 0% {1%} [0%]
• Not sure 17% {19%} [26%]

Survey of 527 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 43%
• Rick Weiland (D) 29%
• Larry Pressler (I) 16%
• Gordon Howie (I) 3%
• Undecided 7%

Among Men

• Mike Rounds (R) 49%
• Rick Weiland (D) 22%
• Larry Pressler (I) 17%
• Gordon Howie (I) 5%
• Undecided 7%

Among Women

• Mike Rounds (R) 38%
• Rick Weiland (D) 37%
• Larry Pressler (I) 15%
• Gordon Howie (I) 2%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Larry Pressler 52% / 30% {+22%}
• Rick Weiland 46% / 33% {+13%}
• Mike Rounds 52% / 40% {+12%}

Survey of 730 likely voters was conducted October 19-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Harper Polling (R) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Harper Polling (R) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 37%
• Rick Weiland (D) 33%
• Larry Pressler (I) 23%
• Gordon Howie (I) 5%
• Not sure 2%

Among Men

• Mike Rounds (R) 42%
• Rick Weiland (D) 28%
• Larry Pressler (I) 23%
• Gordon Howie (I) 5%
• Not sure 2%

Among Women

• Rick Weiland (D) 38%
• Mike Rounds (R) 32%
• Larry Pressler (I) 23%
• Gordon Howie (I) 4%
• Not sure 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Larry Pressler 55% / 38% {+17%}
• Rick Weiland 48% / 43% {+5%}
• Mike Rounds 46% / 51% {-5%}
• Gordon Howie 21% / 51% {-30%}

Survey of 630 likely voters was conducted October 9-11, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 46% Republican; 34% Democrat; 20% Independent/Other. Ideology: 44% Conservative; 41% Moderate; 13% Liberal.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 35% [39%] (44%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 32% [25%] (17%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 28% [28%] (30%)
• Gordon Howie (I) 3% [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 2% [5%] (5%)

Survey of 616 likely voters was conducted October 1-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 3-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 6-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 42% [43%] (61%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 27% [29%] (34%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 12% [6%]
• Other 1% [1%]
• Not sure 17% [21%]

Survey of 382 likely voters was conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 35% {38%} [40%]
• Rick Weiland (D) 28% {28%} [34%]
• Larry Pressler (I) 24% {15%}
• Gordon Howie (I) 8% {4%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Weiland 42% {36%} [28%] / 38% {30%} [19%] {+4%}
• Mike Rounds 41% {41%} [42%] (51%) / 51% {41%} [40%] (34%) {-10%}

Survey of 703 likely voters was conducted September 29-30, 2014 on behalf of People for Weiland.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 49% {49%} [43%] (49%) Republican; 35% {33%} [35%] (37%) Democrat; 16% {18%} [22%] (15%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 10-13, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Nielson Brothers South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Nielson Brothers South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 39%
• Rick Weiland (D) 26%
• Larry Pressler (I) 24%
• Gordon Howie (I) 4%
• Undecided 7%

Survey of 647 likely voters was conducted September 21-25, 2014, and sponsored in part by Northern Plains News.  The margin of error is +/- 3.24 percentage points.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 39% (44%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 28% (30%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 25% (17%)
• Gordon Howie (I) 3% (3%)
• Undecided 5% (5%)

Survey of 510 likely voters was conducted September 3-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 6-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

If Independent Larry Pressler wasn't on the ballot, of the people who would have voted for him, numbers show more than half would vote for Weiland.

That means, if Pressler weren't in the race, SurveyUSA shows it would essentially be a toss-up.

Rounds would have 44% of the vote against Weiland's 42%.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 43% (61%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 29% (34%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 6%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 21%

Survey of 526 likely voters was conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 44% (51%)
• Rick Weiland (D) 29% (31%)
• Larry Pressler (I) 18%
• Some other candidate 2% (6%)
• Undecided 7% (11%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted June 4-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 25-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 38% [40%]
• Rick Weiland (D) 28% [34%]
• Larry Pressler (I) 15%
• Gordon Howie (I) 4%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Weiland 36% [28%] / 30% [19%] {+6%}
• Mike Rounds 41% [42%] (51%) / 41% [40%] (34%) {0%}

Survey of 745 South Dakota voters was conducted April 30 - May 1, 2014 on behalf of People for Weiland.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 49% [43%] (49%) Republican; 33% [35%] (37%) Democrat. Results from the poll conducted October 10-13, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 51%
• Rick Weiland (D) 31%
• Some other candidate 6%
• Undecided 11%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted February 25-26, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 40%
• Rick Weiland (D) 34%
• Kurt Evans (L) 11%
• Not sure 15%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Weiland 28% / 19% {+9%}
• Mike Rounds 42% (51%) / 40% (34%) {+2%}

Survey of 882 South Dakota voters was conducted October 10-13, 2013 on behalf of People for Weiland.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (49%) Republican; 35% (37%) Democrat; 22% (15%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

• Mike Rounds (R) 49%
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%

• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 48%
• Kristi Noem (R) 47%

• Mike Rounds (R) 53%
• Brendan Johnson (D) 32%

• Kristi Noem (R) 49%
• Brendan Johnson (D) 37%
  

Republican Primary

• Mike Rounds 43%
• Kristi Noem 39%
  

Democratic Primary

• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin 68%
• Brendan Johnson 16%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Rounds 51% / 34% {+17%}
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin 52% / 37% {+15%} 
• Brendan Johnson 25% / 17% {+8%}
• Kristi Noem 49% / 42% {+7%}

Survey of 1,069 South Dakota voters, including subsamples of 501 GOP primary voters and 390 Democratic primary voters, was conducted March 18-19, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points among all voters; +/- 4.4 percentage points among GOP primary voters; +/- 5.0 percentage points among Democratic primary voters. Party ID: 49% Republican; 37% Democrat; 15% Independent. 

Poll Watch: Argus Leader/KELO-TV/Mason-Dixon South Dakota Congressional Survey

Argus Leader/KELO-TV/Mason-Dixon South Dakota Congressional Survey

• Kristi Noem (R) 45%
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 43%
• Other 3%
• Undecided 9%

Do you think John Thune should or should not run for president in 2012?

• Should 41%
• Should not 35%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Thune 61% / 13% {+48%}
• Mike Rounds 49% / 18% {+31%}
• Tim Johnson 40% / 32% {+8%}
• Barack Obama 27% / 53% {-26%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 20-21, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen South Dakota Congressional Survey

Rasmussen South Dakota Congressional Survey

• Kristi Noem (R) 49% {47%} [45%] (51%) {49%} [53%] (43%) {35%} [35%] (34%)
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44% {44%} [47%] (42%) {44%} [41%] (46%) {50%} [46%] (49%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kristi Noem 51% {53%} [53%] (63%) {60%} [68%] (49%) / 46% {43%} [41%] (26%) {30%} [24%] (32%) {+5%}
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin 48% {53%} [60%] (57%) {56%} [57%] (59%) {55%} [52%] / 50% {45%} [39%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (39%) {43%} [43%] {-2%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 23% {24%} [23%] (20%) {20%} [23%] (27%) {27%} [28%] (22%)
• Somewhat approve 18% {16%} [16%] (21%) {20%} [17%] (16%) {18%} [15%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 9% {11%} [15%] (11%) {13%} [13%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (14%)
• Strongly disapprove 50% {48%} [46%] (47%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (45%)

How would you rate the job Mike Rounds has been doing as Governor?    

• Strongly approve 30% {24%} [27%] (26%) {20%} [19%] (20%)
• Somewhat approve 32% {44%} [39%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (42%)
• Somewhat disapprove 21% {19%} [24%] (19%) {18%} [22%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 16% {13%} [8%] (10%) {16%} [13%] (15%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 20, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 49% {46%} Republican; 32% {33%} Democrat; 19% {21%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 6, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Noem now has the support of 78% of the state's Republicans, while 85% of South Dakota Democrats back Congresswoman Herseth-Sandlin. Noem has an 8-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Rasmussen South Dakota Congressional Survey

Rasmussen South Dakota Congressional Survey

• Kristi Noem (R) 47% [45%] (51%) {49%} [53%] (43%) {35%} [35%] (34%)
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44% [47%] (42%) {44%} [41%] (46%) {50%} [46%] (49%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kristi Noem 53% [53%] (63%) {60%} [68%] (49%) / 43% [41%] (26%) {30%} [24%] (32%) {+10%}
• Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin 53% [60%] (57%) {56%} [57%] (59%) {55%} [52%] / 45% [39%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (39%) {43%} [43%] {+8%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 24% [23%] (20%) {20%} [23%] (27%) {27%} [28%] (22%)
• Somewhat approve 16% [16%] (21%) {20%} [17%] (16%) {18%} [15%] (18%)
• Somewhat disapprove 11% [15%] (11%) {13%} [13%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (14%)
• Strongly disapprove 48% [46%] (47%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {47%} [45%] (45%)

How would you rate the job Mike Rounds has been doing as Governor?    

• Strongly approve 24% [27%] (26%) {20%} [19%] (20%)
• Somewhat approve 44% [39%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (42%)
• Somewhat disapprove 19% [24%] (19%) {18%} [22%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 13% [8%] (10%) {16%} [13%] (15%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 4, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 46% Republican; 33% Democrat; 21% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 6, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 21, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Noem now has the support of 79% of the state's Republicans, while 80% of South Dakota Democrats back Congresswoman Herseth-Sandlin. The incumbent has a 19-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.