CNN State of the Union: Interview with Sen. John Thune (Part 2)

CNN State of the Union: Interview with Sen. John Thune (Part 1)

Intrade Republican 2012 Vice Presidential Nominee Odds

Intrade GOP 2012 VP Nominee Odds

• Paul Ryan 50.0%
• Tim Pawlenty 11.0%
• Rob Portman 10.6% 
• Marco Rubio 5.0%       
• Bobby Jindal 2.4%
• Bob McDonnell 2.1%
• John Thune 2.0%  
• Chris Christie 1.5% 
• Condoleezza Rice 1.0%
• Sarah Palin 0.9% 
• Kelly Ayotte 0.6%          
• Susana Martinez 0.4%
• Nikki Haley 0.3%  
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers 0.3%
• Brian Sandoval 0.3%
• David Petraeus 0.3%
• Eric Cantor 0.2%
• Pat Toomey 0.2%
• Mike Huckabee 0.2%
• Dave Heineman 0.2%
• Jeb Bush 0.2%
• Meg Whitman 0.2%
• John Kasich 0.2%
• Jon Kyl 0.2%
• Ron Paul 0.2% 
• Jon Huntsman 0.2% 
• Luis Fortuño 0.2% 
• Rick Santorum 0.1% 
• Rudy Giuliani 0.1%
• Michele Bachmann 0.1% 
• Haley Barbour 0.1%   
• Mitch Daniels 0.1%
• Rand Paul 0.1%
• Michael Bloomberg 0.1%
• John Bolton 0.1%
• Scott Brown 0.1%
• Carly Fiorina 0.1%
• Newt Gingrich 0.1%
• Judd Gregg 0.1%
• Gary Johnson 0.1%
• George Pataki 0.1% 
• Kay Bailey Hutchison 0.1%
• Mike Pence 0.1%
• Rick Perry 0.1%
• Donald Trump 0.1%
• Scott Walker 0.1%
• J.C. Watts 0.1%
• Jim DeMint 0.1%
• Allen West 0.1% 

Last Updated: August 10, 2012

Sen. John Thune Delivers Weekly GOP Address: Obama's Policies Making It Worse

Debt Ceiling: Sens. Thune & McCaskill Debate 'Fundamental' Differences Between GOP & Dems

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Could Giuliani Take Down Obama in 2012 Election?

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Rhode Island Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Rhode Island GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Mike Huckabee 15%
• Newt Gingrich 13% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 17%
• Mike Huckabee 12% 
• Sarah Palin 11%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 5%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 39%
• Mike Huckabee 21% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 12% 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 41%
• Newt Gingrich 15% 
• Sarah Palin 10%
• Mike Huckabee 9%
• Mitch Daniels 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 6%
• Ron Paul 5%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 7%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 36%
• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Sarah Palin 10% 
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 73% / 16% {+57%}
• Mike Huckabee 64% / 19% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 28% {+28%}
• Sarah Palin 51% / 36% {+15%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 77% / 15% {+62%}
• Mike Huckabee 67% / 19% {+48%}
• Newt Gingrich 65% / 22% {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 58% / 33% {+25%}

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 73% / 13% {+60%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 15% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 34% {+12%}
• Sarah Palin 45% / 37% {+8%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 72% / 20% {+52%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 20% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 60% / 27% {+33%}
• Sarah Palin 56% / 37% {+19%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 74% / 12% {+62%}
• Mike Huckabee 68% / 17% {+51%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% / 29% {+24%}
• Sarah Palin 46% / 35% {+11%}

Survey of 250 Rhode Island Republican primary voters was conducted February 16-22, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 57% Republican; 41% Independent/Other; 3% Democrat.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Survey 

• Mike Huckabee 24% (27%) {18%} [25%] (19%) {30%} [30%] (33%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% (18%) {21%} [17%] (23%)
• Mitt Romney 18% (11%) {18%} [10%] (14%) {27%} [25%] (25%)
• Sarah Palin 16% (16%) {21%} [21%] (19%) {30%} [27%] (27%)
• Ron Paul 6% (6%) {7%} [7%]
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (7%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Mitch Daniels 2% (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
• John Thune 1% (1%) {1%} [2%] (0%)
• Someone else/Undecided 11% (10%) {12%} [12%] (16%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 21% (10%) [10%] (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% (19%) [20%] (32%)
• Sarah Palin 18% (13%) [20%] (18%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% (24%) [24%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 7% (10%) [8%]
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (8%) [4%] (6%)
• Mitch Daniels 2% (3%) [0%] (3%)
• John Thune 1%  (2%) [2%]
• Someone else/Undecided 9% (11%) [12%] (11%)

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 31% (30%) [27%] (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% (17%) [12%] (15%)
• Mitt Romney 15% (13%) [10%] (14%)
• Sarah Palin 14% (18%) [23%] (20%)
• Ron Paul 4% (2%) [7%]
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (7%) [4%] (1%)
• Mitch Daniels 1% (3%) [1%] (1%)
• John Thune 1% (0%) [1%]
• Someone else/Undecided 12% (9%) [13%] (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 68% (70%) {71%} [71%] / 19% (14%) {16%} [13%] {+49%}
• Sarah Palin 69% (72%) {67%} [65%] / 24% (22%) {25%} [20%] {+45%}
• Mitt Romney 56% (50%) {57%} [49%] / 24% (26%) {22%} [23%] {+32%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% (62%) {61%} [63%] / 25% (18%) {21%} [21%] {+30%}

Among Men

• Sarah Palin 71% (75%) / 24% (21%) {+47%}
• Mike Huckabee 63% (70%) / 25% (18%) {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 61% (53%) / 26% (29%) {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 61% (66%) / 27% (19%) {+34%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 73% (70%) / 12% (9%) {+61%}
• Sarah Palin 66% (68%) / 25% (22%) {+41%}
• Mitt Romney 51% (47%) / 22% (23%) {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 49% (58%) / 23% (17%) {+26%}

Survey of 400 usual Republican primary voters was conducted February 16-21, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses. 

Poll Watch: Rudy Giuliani Remains Israeli Panel's Favorite Potential 2012 Presidential Candidate

Shmuel Rosner of The Jerusalem Post reports:

The Israel Factor 2012 favorites are, by this order: Giuliani, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee, Bolton, Bush, Barbour, Rubio. Thune and Pawlenty are both tied with Obama at 6.

Click on Images to Enlarge

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Tennessee Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Tennessee GOP Primary Survey

• Mike Huckabee 31%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% 
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 14%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 29%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Mitt Romney 10%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 1% 
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 33%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 0% 
• Someone else/Undecided 18%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 13% {+61%}
• Sarah Palin 67% / 23% {+44%}
• Newt Gingrich 52% / 28% {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 47% / 30% {+17%}

Very Conservative (45%)

• Mike Huckabee 81% / 8% {+73%}
• Sarah Palin 80% / 14% {+66%}
• Newt Gingrich 68% / 13% {+55%}
• Mitt Romney 49% / 32% {+17%}

Somewhat Conservative (32%)

• Mike Huckabee 80% / 8% {+72%}
• Sarah Palin 62% / 24% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 53% / 24% {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% / 30% {+21%}

Moderate (18%)

• Mike Huckabee 52% / 26% {+26%}
• Mitt Romney 41% / 31% {+10%}
• Sarah Palin 42% / 44% {-2%}
• Newt Gingrich 24% / 53% {-29%}

Among Men (50%)

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 15% {+59%}
• Sarah Palin 63% / 25% {+38%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 29% {+27%}
• Mitt Romney 46% / 35% {+11%}

Among Women (50%)

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 10% {+64%}
• Sarah Palin 71% / 20% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 49% / 26% {+23%}
• Newt Gingrich 48% / 27% {+21%}

Survey of 400 usual Tennessee Republican primary voters was conducted February 9-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 45% Very conservative; 32% Somewhat conservative; 18% Moderate; 4% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 19% {22%} [25%] (44%)
• Mike Huckabee 16% {14%} [18%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 16% {17%} [29%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {17%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 7% {6%}
• John Thune 4% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 3% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 16% {18%}

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 18% {20%} [24%] (40%)
• Sarah Palin 17% {19%} [27%] (32%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% {14%} [14%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% {20%} [21%]
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% {7%}
• John Thune 4% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 15% {14%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 22% {27%} [27%] (52%)
• Mike Huckabee 20% {15%} [28%] (24%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% {6%} [5%]
• Sarah Palin 10% {9%} [30%] (11%)
• Tim Pawlenty 8% {3%}
• Ron Paul 6%
• Mitch Daniels 4% {2%}
• John Thune 3% {3%}
• Someone else/Undecided 17% {34%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 18% {20%} [25%] (49%)
• Sarah Palin 16% {17%} [32%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% {12%} [15%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 14% {19%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 6% {4%}
• Mitch Daniels 5% {2%} 
• John Thune 4% {3%}
• Someone else/Undecided 13% {19%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 21% {24%} [27%] (38%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% {16%} [24%] (20%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {16%} [23%] (26%)
• Newt Gingrich 9% {15%} [16%]
• Tim Pawlenty 8% {8%}
• Ron Paul 7%
• John Thune 4% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 1% {0%}
• Someone else/Undecided 19% {18%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 60% / 22% {+38%}
• Mike Huckabee 59% / 24% {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 54% / 27% {+27%}
• Sarah Palin 59% / 32% {+27%}

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 70% / 22% {+48%}
• Mike Huckabee 66% / 21% {+45%}
• Mitt Romney 63% / 21% {+42%}
• Newt Gingrich 62% / 21% {+41%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 55% / 24% {+31%}
• Mike Huckabee 40% / 32% {+8%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% / 40% {-6%}
• Sarah Palin 30% / 60% {-30%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 62% / 25% {+37%}
• Mike Huckabee 58% / 27% {+31%}
• Sarah Palin 61% / 31% {+30%}
• Newt Gingrich 57% / 28% {+29%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 58% / 19% {+39%}
• Mike Huckabee 60% / 21% {+39%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% / 25% {+26%}
• Sarah Palin 56% / 34% {+22%}

Survey of 400 usual Colorado Republican primary voters was conducted February 4-6, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 72% Conservative; 27% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2012 GOP Nomination Survey

• Mike Huckabee 20% {24%} [16%] (21%) {23%} [21%] (22%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
• Mitt Romney 17% {14%} [18%] (22%) {22%} [19%] (25%) {23%} [33%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {14%} [21%] (17%) {21%} [17%] (19%) {20%} [23%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {11%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [23%] (15%) {21%}
• Ron Paul 8% {7%} [5%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (6%) {8%} (11%)
• Mitch Daniels 4% {4%} [2%]
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {8%} [5%]
• John Thune 1% {1%} [3%]

Given the same list of choices who would your second choice be for President in 2012?

• Mike Huckabee 20%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• John Thune 1%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 58% {64%} [63%] (60%) {62%} [64%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (54%) / 15% {16%} [17%] (14%) {14%} [11%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (16%) {+43%}
• Sarah Palin 65% {65%} [68%] (66%) {76%} [70%] (67%) {69%} [66%] (69%) / 25% {26%} [22%] (19%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {21%} [21%] (17%) {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 55% {52%} [56%] (57%) {57%} [59%] (57%) {54%} [54%] (58%) / 25% {28%} [24%] (21%) {21%} [14%] (14%) {19%} [24%] (17%) {+30%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% {58%} [57%] (57%) {65%} [63%] (58%) {57%} / 26% {24%} [28%] (25%) {19%} [14%] (18%) {21%} {+29%}
• Ron Paul 30% / 37% {-7%}
• Donald Trump 29% / 56% {-27%}

Among Voters Who Think Obama Was Born in the U.S. (28%)

• Mike Huckabee 50% / 20% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 52% / 26% {+26%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 40% {+6%}
• Sarah Palin 41% / 52% {-11%}
• Ron Paul 20% / 53% {-33%}
• Donald Trump 27% / 65% {-38%}

Among Voters Who Think Obama Was NOT Born in the U.S. (51%)

• Sarah Palin 83% / 12% {+71%}
• Mike Huckabee 64% / 12% {+52%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 19% {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 55% / 27% {+28%}
• Ron Paul 34% / 34% {0%}
• Donald Trump 33% / 51% {-18%}

Do you think Mitt Romney is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 50%
• Vice president 24%

Do you think Mike Huckabee is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 44%
• Vice president 28%

Do you think Newt Gingrich is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 27%
• Vice president 37%

Do you think Sarah Palin is most qualified to be President or Vice President?

• President 29%
• Vice president 46%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States?

• Yes 28%
• No 51%
• Not sure 21%

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters nationwide was conducted February 11-13, 2011.  The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 85% Republican; 12% Independent/Other; 2% Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% Somewhat conservative; 39% Very conservative; 15% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Birtherism is alive and well within the GOP ranks, and their 2012 nominee preferences tell a story about the difficulty Mitt Romney faces in trying to appeal to an electorate that's a whole lot further out there than he is. 

Birthers make a majority among those voters who say they're likely to participate in a Republican primary next year. 51% say they don't think Barack Obama was born in the United States to just 28% who firmly believe that he was and 21% who are unsure. The GOP birther majority is a new development. The last time PPP tested this question nationally, in August of 2009, only 44% of Republicans said they thought Obama was born outside the country while 36% said that he definitely was born in the United States. If anything birtherism is on the rise. 

How does this impact Romney? Well among the 49% of GOP primary voters who either think Obama was born in the United States or aren't sure, Romney's the first choice to be the 2012 nominee by a good amount, getting 23% to 16% for Mike Huckabee, 11% for Sarah Palin, and 10% for Newt Gingrich. But with the birther majority he's in a distant fourth place at 11%, with Mike Huckabee at 24%, Sarah Palin at 19%, and Newt Gingrich at 14% all ahead of him. 

There is really a remarkable divide in how the birther and non-birther wings of the GOP view Sarah Palin. With the birthers she is a beloved figure, scoring an 83/12 favorability rating. Non-birthers are almost evenly divided on her with 47% rating her positively and 40% unfavorably.

Poll Watch: Fox News 2012 Presidential Survey

Fox News 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 48%
• Mitt Romney 41%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mike Huckabee 41%

• Barack Obama 54%
• Jeb Bush 34%

• Barack Obama 55%
• Newt Gingrich 35% 

• Barack Obama 56%
• Sarah Palin 35%

I’m going to read you a list of names -- for each one please tell me if you think that person would make a good president or not.

MIKE HUCKABEE

• Yes 34%
• No 45%

Among Republicans

• Yes 55%
• No 32%

Among Independents

• Yes 34%
• No 41%

Among Democrats

• Yes 16%
• No 58%

MITT ROMNEY

• Yes 33%
• No 45%

Among Republicans

• Yes 54%
• No 31%

Among Independents

• Yes 33%
• No 45%

Among Democrats

• Yes 15%
• No 58%

NEWT GINGRICH

• Yes 23%
• No 60%

Among Republicans

• Yes 43%
• No 44%

Among Independents

• Yes 18%
• No 71%

Among Democrats

• Yes 7%
• No 70%

SARAH PALIN

• Yes 23%
• No 72%

Among Republicans

• Yes 40%
• No 56%

Among Independents

• Yes 25%
• No 69%

Among Democrats

• Yes 7%
• No 87%

JEB BUSH

• Yes 21%
• No 63%

Among Republicans

• Yes 39%
• No 47%

Among Independents

• Yes 20%
• No 64%

Among Democrats

• Yes 5%
• No 77%

DONALD TRUMP

• Yes 19%
• No 75%

Among Republicans

• Yes 23%
• No 71%

Among Independents

• Yes 18%
• No 79%

Among Democrats

• Yes 16%
• No 76%

CHRIS CHRISTIE

• Yes 18%
• No 34%

Among Republicans

• Yes 29%
• No 24%

Among Independents

• Yes 15%
• No 35%

Among Democrats

• Yes 8%
• No 40%

TIM PAWLENTY

• Yes 13%
• No 30%

Among Republicans

• Yes 21%
• No 23%

Among Independents

• Yes 15%
• No 25%

Among Democrats

• Yes 5%
• No 38%

HALEY BARBOUR

• Yes 11%
• No 36%

Among Republicans

• Yes 16%
• No 30%

Among Independents

• Yes 11%
• No 33%

Among Democrats

• Yes 6%
• No 42%

MICHELE BACHMANN

• Yes 10%
• No 39%

Among Republicans

• Yes 16%
• No 34%

Among Independents

• Yes 12%
• No 35%

Among Democrats

• Yes 4%
• No 43%

RICK SANTORUM

• Yes 9%
• No 32%

Among Republicans

• Yes 15%
• No 28%

Among Independents

• Yes 12%
• No 24%

Among Democrats

• Yes 4%
• No 39%

MITCH DANIELS

• Yes 8%
• No 29%

Among Republicans

• Yes 13%
• No 25%

Among Independents

• Yes 7%
• No 26%

Among Democrats

• Yes 5%
• No 33%

JOHN THUNE

• Yes 6%
• No 29%

Among Republicans

• Yes 12%
• No 25%

Among Independents

• Yes 4%
• No 29%

Among Democrats

• Yes 1%
• No 32%

JON HUNTSMAN

• Yes 6%
• No 27%

Among Republicans

• Yes 10%
• No 20%

Among Independents

• Yes 7%
• No 27%

Among Democrats

• Yes 3%
• No 31%

Survey of 911 registered voters was conducted February 7-9, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 43% Democrat; 39% Republican; 16% Independent.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 22% {25%} [24%] (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% {15%} [21%] (28%)
• Sarah Palin 16% {18%} [18%] (18%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% {15%} [17%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 10%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 12% {19%}

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 21% {24%} [20%] (26%)
• Sarah Palin 20% {24%} [21%] (19%)
• Newt Gingrich 19% {14%} [24%] (33%)
• Ron Paul 13%
• Mike Huckabee 13% {16%} [18%] (12%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%}
• Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 8% {13%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 25% {30%} [36%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 19% {15%} [14%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {18%} [13%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 9% {2%} [9%] (14%)
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {0%}
• Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 20% {33%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 25% {15%} [20%] (30%)
• Mitt Romney 18% {22%} [25%] (25%)
• Sarah Palin 17% {24%} [16%] (21%)
• Mike Huckabee 13% {12%} [17%] (9%)
• Ron Paul 10%
• Mitch Daniels 3% {2%}
• Tim Pawlenty 3% {3%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 9% {19%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 25% {29%} [24%] (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% {19%} [18%] (17%)
• Sarah Palin 15% {11%} [19%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% {14%} [22%] (26%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4% {2%}
• Mitch Daniels 1% {1%}
• John Thune 1% {1%}
• Someone else/Undecided 15% {18%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 21% {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 59% / 22% {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 63% / 27% {+36%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 23% {+33%}

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 75% / 14% {+61%}
• Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
• Newt Gingrich 66% / 15% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 61% / 20% {+41%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 53% / 26% {+27%}
• Mike Huckabee 42% / 32% {+10%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% / 36% {+2%}
• Sarah Palin 39% / 51% {-12%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 61% / 24% {+37%}
• Sarah Palin 65% / 29% {+36%}
• Mitt Romney 60% / 27% {+33%}
• Newt Gingrich 58% / 27% {+31%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 62% / 18% {+44%}
• Mitt Romney 57% / 17% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 55% / 19% {+36%}
• Sarah Palin 61% / 25% {+36%}

Survey of 403 usual California Republican primary voters was conducted January 28-30, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 64% Conservative; 33% Moderate; 3% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey 

• Mike Huckabee 21% (21%) [14%] {24%} (17%)
• Sarah Palin 19% (14%) [18%] {15%} (18%)
• Mitt Romney 18% (20%) [21%] {20%} (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% (12%) [15%] {14%} (8%)
• Ron Paul 7% (7%) [10%] {8%} (8%)
• Haley Barbour 3% (3%) [3%] {1%} (1%)
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) [3%] {2%} (5%)
• Mike Pence 1% (3%) [3%] {2%} (4%)
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%] {3%} (5%)
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5% (7%) [6%] {5%} (8%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) [0%] {5%} (2%)
• No opinion 2% (6%) [4%] {1%} (3%)

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 24% (21%) [17%]
• Mitt Romney 18% (21%) [20%]
• Sarah Palin 17% (16%) [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (14%) [15%]
• Haley Barbour 6% (3%) [3%]
• Ron Paul 7% (4%) [7%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%) [2%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (3%) [3%]
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [2%] 
• Someone else (vol.) 4% (5%)
• None/No one (vol.) 3% (2%)
• No opinion 1% (6%)

Among Independents

• Sarah Palin 22% (11%) [12%]
• Mitt Romney 19% (19%) [23%]
• Mike Huckabee 18% (20%) [9%]
• Newt Gingrich 13% (9%) [14%]
• Ron Paul 8% (11%) [14%]
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (3%) [5%]
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Mike Pence 2% (3%) [6%]
• Haley Barbour 1% (2%) [2%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (1%) [2%]
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else (vol.) 5% (10%)
• None/No one (vol.) 4% (7%)
• No opinion 3% (5%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 20% (23%) [23%]
• Mike Huckabee 18% (21%) [11%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% (13%) [17%]
• Sarah Palin 12% (12%) [16%]
• Ron Paul 10% (9%) [13%]
• Mitch Daniels 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%) [3%]
• Haley Barbour 4% (3%) [4%]
• Mike Pence 2% (4%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%]

Among Women

• Sarah Palin 26% (17%) [20%]
• Mike Huckabee 24% (20%) [18%]
• Mitt Romney 17% (17%) [19%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (9%) [13%]
• Ron Paul 5% (4%) [6%]
• Haley Barbour 3% (3%) [1%]
• Tim Pawlenty 2% (2%) [4%]
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (1%) [3%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (3%) [2%]
• John Thune 0%

Attended College

• Mike Huckabee 21% (18%) [15%]
• Mitt Romney 20% (25%) [28%]
• Sarah Palin 13% (9%) [13%]
• Newt Gingrich 12% (14%) [16%]
• Ron Paul 8% (6%) [9%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (4%) [3%]
• Rick Santorum 2% (3%) [2%]
• Mike Pence 2% (3%) [2%]
• Haley Barbour 2% (2%) [2%]
• John Thune 1%

No College

• Sarah Palin 27% (20%) [24%]
• Mike Huckabee 22% (24%) [13%]
• Mitt Romney 16% (13%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (9%) [14%]
• Ron Paul 7% (7%) [10%]
• Haley Barbour 5% (4%) [4%]
• Tim Pawlenty 3% (1%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [5%]
• Rick Santorum 0% (2%) [2%]

Income $50K+

• Mike Huckabee 20% (17%) [16%]
• Mitt Romney 19% (31%) [29%]
• Sarah Palin 16% (9%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 11% (13%) [12%]
• Ron Paul 10% (6%) [7%]
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% (3%) [4%]
• Mike Pence 2% (4%) [2%]
• Haley Barbour 2% (3%) [4%]
• John Thune 2%
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [3%]

Income under $50K

• Sarah Palin 25% (18%) [27%]
• Mike Huckabee 22% (27%) [11%]
• Mitt Romney 17% (7%) [12%]
• Newt Gingrich 10% (9%) [19%]
• Haley Barbour 5% (3%) [2%]
• Ron Paul 4% (8%) [11%]
• Tim Pawlenty 2% (4%) [2%]
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Mike Pence 1% (2%) [6%]
• Rick Santorum 1% (2%) [2%]

Who would be your second choice?

• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Mike Huckabee 14%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Mike Pence 2%
• Haley Barbour 1%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else (vol.) 5%
• None/ No one (vol.) 7%
• No opinion 4%

Regardless of which candidates you support, who do you think is most likely to become the Republican nominee for president in 2012?

• Mitt Romney 25%
• Sarah Palin 24%
• Mike Huckabee 13%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Haley Barbour 3%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Mike Pence 0%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else (vol.) 3%
• None/ No one (vol.) 4%
• No opinion 12%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 72% / 13% {+59%}
• Mitt Romney 64% / 16% {+48%}
• Sarah Palin 70% / 25% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 23% {+36%}
• Rick Santorum 32% / 7% {+25%}
• Ron Paul 46% / 22% {+24%}
• Haley Barbour 32% / 9% {+23%}
• Tim Pawlenty 31% / 9% {+22%}
• Mike Pence 23% / 4% {+19%}
• Mitch Daniels 23% / 9% {+14%}
• John Thune 16% / 7% {+9%}

If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party nominate a presidential candidate who agrees with you on every issue that matters to you but may not be able to beat Barack Obama, or a presidential candidate who can beat Barack Obama but does not agree with you on every issue that matters to you?

• Agrees with you on issues 29%
• Can beat Barack Obama 68%

Survey of 479 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, was conducted January 21-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 27-30, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 South Dakota Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 South Dakota GOP Primary Survey

• John Thune 37%
• Sarah Palin 12%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Newt Gingrich 10%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 10%

Among Conservatives

• John Thune 36%
• Sarah Palin 12%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Moderates

• John Thune 41%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Sarah Palin 12%
• Mike Huckabee 11%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Newt Gingrich 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 10%

Among Men

• John Thune 33%
• Sarah Palin 15%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Mike Huckabee 12%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 8%

Among Women

• John Thune 42%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Mike Huckabee 10%
• Sarah Palin 9%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Mitch Daniels 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 13%

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

• Sarah Palin 21%
• Mike Huckabee 19%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 19%

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 21%
• Mike Huckabee 20%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 16%

Among Moderates

• Sarah Palin 18%
• Mike Huckabee 18%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 7%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 24%

Among Men

• Sarah Palin 24%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 12%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 26%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 59% / 19% {+40%}
• Sarah Palin 62% / 29% {+33%}
• Mitt Romney 51% / 22% {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% / 23% {+28%}

Survey of 484 usual South Dakota Republican primary voters was conducted January 28-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 69% Conservative; 27% Moderate; 4% Liberal.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Mitt Romney 44% (44%)
• Barack Obama 42% (44%)

• Mike Huckabee 43% (41%)
• Barack Obama 43% (45%)

• Barack Obama 47%
• Newt Gingrich 39%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Ron Paul 35%

• Barack Obama 43%
• Jon Huntsman 33%

• Barack Obama 49% (46%)
• Sarah Palin 38% (43%)

• Barack Obama 45%
• John Thune 31%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Tim Pawlenty 32%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Haley Barbour 30%

• Barack Obama 42%
• Mitch Daniels 25%

• Barack Obama 42%
• Herman Cain 25%

• Barack Obama 46%
• Mike Pence 29%

Surveys were conducted between January 3 and February 1, 2011. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 23% (27%)
• Mike Huckabee 19% (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% (19%)
• Sarah Palin 15% (13%)
• Ron Paul 5% (9%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 16% (19%)

Among Conservatives

• Mitt Romney 22% (29%)
• Mike Huckabee 17% (10%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% (26%)
• Sarah Palin 15% (13%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Ron Paul 3% (7%)
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 17% (14%)

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 26% (25%)
• Mike Huckabee 20% (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 15% (7%)
• Sarah Palin 13% (15%)
• Ron Paul 9% (12%)
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 0%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 14% (27%)

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 25% (25%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% (22%)
• Sarah Palin 17% (15%)
• Mike Huckabee 15% (12%)
• Ron Paul 4% (8%)
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3%
• John Thune 0%
• Someone else/Undecided 13% (18%)

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 22% (12%)
• Mitt Romney 21% (29%)
• Sarah Palin 13% (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% (17%)
• Ron Paul 5% (10%)
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 19% (20%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 62% / 20% {+42%}
• Sarah Palin 66% / 26% {+40%}
• Mitt Romney 62% / 22% {+40%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 22% {+37%}

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 77% / 15% {+62%}
• Mike Huckabee 71% / 12% {+59%}
• Newt Gingrich 67% / 15% {+52%}
• Mitt Romney 64% / 20% {+44%}

Among Moderates

• Mitt Romney 56% / 27% {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% / 38% {+2%}
• Mike Huckabee 39% / 40% {-1%}
• Sarah Palin 41% / 51% {-10%}

Among Men

• Sarah Palin 72% / 20% {+52%}
• Mike Huckabee 65% / 20% {+45%}
• Mitt Romney 65% / 20% {+45%}
• Newt Gingrich 64% / 21% {+43%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 59% / 21% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 58% / 24% {+34%}
• Newt Gingrich 54% / 23% {+31%}
• Sarah Palin 61% / 31% {+30%}

Survey of 400 usual Arizona Republican primary voters was conducted January 28-30, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 70% (66%) Conservative; 27% (31%) Moderate; 3% (3%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 23-25, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Nebraska Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Nebraska GOP Primary Survey

• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Mitt Romney 15%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• John Thune 3%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 12%

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 21%
• Sarah Palin 20%
• Newt Gingrich 20%
• Mitt Romney 14%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• John Thune 3%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 10%

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 19%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Someone else/Undecided 15%

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 22%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mike Huckabee 18%
• Mitt Romney 13%
• Ron Paul 9%
• John Thune 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 2% 
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 24%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 16%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 1%
• John Thune 1%  
• Someone else/Undecided 15%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 62% / 18% {+44%}
• Sarah Palin 62% / 28% {+34%}
• Mitt Romney 51% / 23% {+28%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% / 24% {+26%}

Among Conservatives

• Sarah Palin 72% / 17% {+55%}
• Mike Huckabee 69% / 15% {+54%}
• Newt Gingrich 60% / 16% {+44%}
• Mitt Romney 55% / 21% {+34%}

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 44% / 27% {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 41% / 26% {+15%}
• Sarah Palin 42% / 49% {-7%}
• Newt Gingrich 29% / 43% {-14%}

Among Men

• Sarah Palin 67% / 25% {+42%}
• Mike Huckabee 62% / 23% {+39%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 27% {+29%}
• Mitt Romney 54% / 26% {+28%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 62% / 13% {+49%}
• Sarah Palin 58% / 30% {+28%}
• Mitt Romney 47% /19% {+28%}
• Newt Gingrich 44% / 22% {+22%}

Survey of 519 usual Nebraska Republican primary voters was conducted January 26-27, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Political ideology: 67% Conservative; 31% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Dakota 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) South Dakota 2012 Presidential Survey

• John Thune 57%
• Barack Obama 37%

• Mike Huckabee 47%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Barack Obama 40%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Newt Gingrich 42%

• Barack Obama 48%
• Sarah Palin 40%

Among Independents

• John Thune 50%
• Barack Obama 43%

• Barack Obama 50%
• Mike Huckabee 37%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Mitt Romney 32%

• Barack Obama 56%
• Newt Gingrich 31%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Sarah Palin 31%

Among Republicans

• John Thune 85%
• Barack Obama 10%

• Mitt Romney 76%
• Barack Obama 9%

• Mike Huckabee 76%
• Barack Obama 11%

• Newt Gingrich 72%
• Barack Obama 13%

• Sarah Palin 67%
• Barack Obama 18%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 70%
• John Thune 23%

• Barack Obama 77%
• Mike Huckabee 13%

• Barack Obama 77%
• Mitt Romney 12%

• Barack Obama 79%
• Newt Gingrich 9%

• Barack Obama 83%
• Sarah Palin 10%

Among Conservatives

• John Thune 85%
• Barack Obama 10%

• Mike Huckabee 77%
• Barack Obama 13%

• Mitt Romney 74%
• Barack Obama 11%

• Newt Gingrich 71%
• Barack Obama 14%

• Sarah Palin 69%
• Barack Obama 17%

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 52%
• John Thune 40%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mike Huckabee 27%

• Barack Obama 57%
• Mitt Romney 27%

• Barack Obama 62%
• Newt Gingrich 23%

• Barack Obama 69%
• Sarah Palin 21%

Among Men

• John Thune 59%
• Barack Obama 35%

• Mike Huckabee 50%
• Barack Obama 39%

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Barack Obama 39%

• Newt Gingrich 47%
• Barack Obama 43%

• Sarah Palin 46%
• Barack Obama 44%

Among Women

• John Thune 54%
• Barack Obama 39%

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Barack Obama 42%

• Barack Obama 43%
• Mike Huckabee 43%

• Barack Obama 45%
• Newt Gingrich 38%

• Barack Obama 52%
• Sarah Palin 35%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 40% / 30% {+10%}
• Mitt Romney 35% / 34% {+1%}
• Newt Gingrich 31% / 43% {-12%}
• Sarah Palin 37% / 55% {-18%}

Among Democrats

• Mike Huckabee 21% / 43% {-22%}
• Mitt Romney 16% / 47% {-31%}
• Newt Gingrich 9% / 66% {-57%}
• Sarah Palin 10% / 84% {-74%}

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 57% / 19% {+38%}
• Sarah Palin 60% / 30% {+30%}
• Mitt Romney 50% / 22% {+28%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% / 24% {+26%}

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee 35% / 38% {-3%}
• Mitt Romney 31% / 39% {-8%}
• Newt Gingrich 21% / 51% {-30%}
• Sarah Palin 30% / 62% {-32%}

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 60% / 19% {+41%}
• Sarah Palin 63% / 28% {+35%}
• Newt Gingrich 53% / 24% {+29%}
• Mitt Romney 47% / 24% {+23%}

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 29% / 35% {-6%}
• Mitt Romney 28% / 36% {-8%}
• Newt Gingrich 16% / 54% {-38%}
• Sarah Palin 18% / 73% {-55%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 44% / 34% {+10%}
• Mitt Romney 38% / 38% {0%}
• Newt Gingrich 40% / 43% {-3%}
• Sarah Palin 44% / 50% {-6%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 37% / 27% {+10%}
• Mitt Romney 31% / 30% {+1%}
• Newt Gingrich 22% / 44% {-22%}
• Sarah Palin 30% / 59% {-29%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 49%

Survey of 1,045 South Dakota voters was conducted January 28-30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% Republican; 38% Democrat; 14% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 44% Moderate; 43% Conservative; 13% Liberal.