Poll Watch: Vanderbilt University Tennessee 2016 Presidential Survey

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2016 Presidential Poll

• Donald Trump (R) 44%
• Hillary Clinton (D) 35%

Survey of 1,001 registered voters was conducted April 25 - May 11, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

Poll Watch: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Tennessee 2016 Republican Primary Survey

NBC/WSJ/Marist Tennessee 2016 GOP Primary Poll

• Donald Trump 40%
• Ted Cruz 22%
• Marco Rubio 19%
• Ben Carson 9%
• John Kasich 6%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Survey of 665 likely GOP primary voters was conducted February 22-25, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senate Poll

• Lamar Alexander (R) 55% {53%} [47%] (48%)
• Gordon Ball (D) 33% {32%} [32%] (33%)
• Other 2% {2%} [10%]
• Not sure 10% {12%} [11%]

Survey of 974 likely voters was conducted October 16-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senate Poll

• Lamar Alexander (R) 53% [47%] (48%)
• Gordon Ball (D) 32% [32%] (33%)
• Other 2% [10%]
• Not sure 12% [11%]

Survey of 1,007 likely voters was conducted September 20 - October 1, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senate Poll

• Lamar Alexander (R) 47% (48%)
• Gordon Ball (D) 32% (33%)
• Other 10%
• Not sure 11%

Survey of 1,056 likely voters was conducted August 18 - September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: MTSU Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

MTSU Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 58.9% (47%)
• Barack Obama 34.2% (41%)
• Someone else 0.6%
• Undecided 6.2%

Survey of 609 likely voters was conducted October 16-21, 2012 by Issues and Answers Network Inc.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 29.8% Republican; 28.3% Democrat; 31.5% Independent; 7.0% Something else.  Results from the poll conducted February 13-25, 2012 are in parentheses. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 47% (42%)
• Barack Obama 40% (39%)

Survey of 756 registered voters was conducted May 2-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-22, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Tennessee 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 29% (11%)
• Newt Gingrich 27% (11%)
• Ron Paul 8% (10%)
• Someone else/Undecided 2% (14%)

Already Voted (25%)

• Rick Santorum 39%
• Mitt Romney 32%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Ron Paul 6%

Plan to Vote on Election Day (75%)

• Rick Santorum 32%
• Newt Gingrich 28%
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 67%
• Might end up supporting someone else 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 62% / 30% {+32%}
• Newt Gingrich 57% (52%) / 33% (28%) {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 46% (47%) / 46% (30%) {0%}
• Ron Paul 31% / 58% {-27%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 26%
• No 60%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 66%
• Are not 34%

Which best describes when you decided who to vote for: in the last few days, the last week, the last month, or earlier than that?

• In the last few days 9%
• In the last week 10%
• In the last month 35%
• Earlier than that 36%

Do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

• He was 33%
• He was not 45%
• Not sure 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rush Limbaugh?

• Favorable 46%
• Unfavorable 29%

Survey of 525 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters was conducted March 3-4, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 75% Republican; 19% Independent; 6% Democrat.  Political ideology: 48% (45%) Very conservative; 32% (32%) Somewhat conservative; 14% (18%) Moderate; 4% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 9-13, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: American Research Group Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG 2012 Tennessee GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 35% (34%) 
• Mitt Romney 31% (27%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% (16%)
• Ron Paul 9% (13%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 4% (9%)

Early Vote: (19%)

• Rick Santorum 47%
• Mitt Romney 35%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Ron Paul 7%

Will Vote: (81%)

• Rick Santorum 32%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 6%

Among Republicans: 76% (70%)

• Rick Santorum 35% (36%) 
• Mitt Romney 28% (28%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% (21%)
• Ron Paul 8% (5%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 3% (9%)

Among Independents: 24% (30%)

• Mitt Romney 40% (25%) 
• Rick Santorum 34% (28%) 
• Ron Paul 12% (31%) 
• Newt Gingrich 6% (3%)
• Other 1% (1%)
• Undecided 7% (12%)

Among Tea Party Supporters: 57% (42%)

• Rick Santorum 43% (40%) 
• Newt Gingrich 30% (21%)
• Mitt Romney 17% (17%) 
• Ron Paul 5% (11%)
• Other 0% (0%)
• Undecided 5% (11%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters: 43% (58%)

• Mitt Romney 49% (34%) 
• Rick Santorum 24% (29%) 
• Ron Paul 14% (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% (12%)
• Other 2% (2%)
• Undecided 3% (9%)

Among Men: 52%

• Rick Santorum 36% 
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Among Women: 48%

• Mitt Romney 35% 
• Rick Santorum 33% 
• Newt Gingrich 18%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 4%

Survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters (455 Republicans, 89 independents, and 56 Democrats) was conducted March 1-3, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 8-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: MTSU Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

MTSU Tennessee 2012 Presidential Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Rick Santorum 40%
• Mitt Romney 19%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 11%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Rick Santorum 51%
• Barack Obama 39%

• Mitt Romney 47%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Newt Gingrich 45%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Ron Paul 44%
• Barack Obama 41%

Survey of likely voters, including a subsample of likely Republican primary voters, was conducted February 13-25, 2012. 

Poll Watch: Vanderbilt University Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Vanderbilt University Tennessee 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 33%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Newt Gingrich 10%
• None of the above 10%
• Don't know 14%

Survey of 767 likely Republican primary voters was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International February 16-22, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

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Poll Watch: American Research Group Tennessee 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG 2012 Tennessee GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 34% 
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Ron Paul 13%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 9%

Among Republicans (70%)

• Rick Santorum 36% 
• Mitt Romney 28%
• Newt Gingrich 21%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 9%

Among Independents (30%)

• Ron Paul 31%
• Rick Santorum 28% 
• Mitt Romney 25%
• Newt Gingrich 3%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 12%

Among Tea Party Supporters (42%)

• Rick Santorum 40% 
• Newt Gingrich 21%
• Mitt Romney 17% 
• Ron Paul 11%
• Other 0%
• Undecided 11%

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters (58%)

• Mitt Romney 34% 
• Rick Santorum 29% 
• Ron Paul 14%
• Newt Gingrich 12%
• Other 2%
• Undecided 9%

Survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters (418 Republicans, 166 independents, and 16 Democrats) was conducted February 8-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 37%
• Mitt Romney 35%
• Neither 21%

• Barack Obama 37%
• Tim Pawlenty 28%
• Neither 27%

• Barack Obama 38%
• Michele Bachmann 27%
• Neither 26%

• Barack Obama 38%
• Newt Gingrich 26%
• Neither 28%

• Barack Obama 43% (42%)
• Sarah Palin 29% (37%)
• Neither 24%

According to the U.S. Constitution, American presidents must be 'natural born citizens.' Some people say Barack Obama was born in another country, whereas others believe that he was born here in the United States. How about you - do you think Barack Obama was born in the United States, or born in another country?

• Born in the United States 65%
• Born in another country 19%
• Don't know 14%

Do you think of yourself as part of the Tea Party movement?

• Yes 14%
• No 79%

Survey of 700 respondents was conducted June 3-8, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Party ID breakdown: 30% Democrat; 23% Republican; 30% Independent; 13% Something else.  Political ideology: 41% Conservative; 35% Moderate; 13% Liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

• Mike Huckabee 53%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Barack Obama 43%

• Barack Obama 45%
• Sarah Palin 45%

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 90%
• Barack Obama 4%

• Mitt Romney 83%
• Barack Obama 4%

• Newt Gingrich 84%
• Barack Obama 5%

• Sarah Palin 80%
• Barack Obama 7%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 83%
• Mike Huckabee 13%

• Barack Obama 83%
• Mitt Romney 12%

• Barack Obama 86%
• Newt Gingrich 9%

• Barack Obama 88%
• Sarah Palin 9%

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee 51%
• Barack Obama 40%

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Barack Obama 41%

• Barack Obama 43%
• Newt Gingrich 35%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Sarah Palin 38%

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 61%
• Mike Huckabee 32%

• Barack Obama 60%
• Mitt Romney 27%

• Barack Obama 66%
• Newt Gingrich 21%

• Barack Obama 70%
• Sarah Palin 22%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 61%
• Barack Obama 35%

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Barack Obama 37%

• Newt Gingrich 51%
• Barack Obama 38%

• Sarah Palin 51%
• Barack Obama 41%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 47%
• Barack Obama 45%

• Barack Obama 44%
• Mitt Romney 43%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Newt Gingrich 42%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Sarah Palin 41%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 50% / 29% {+21%}
• Mitt Romney 33% / 41% {-8%}
• Sarah Palin 39% / 51% {-12%}
• Newt Gingrich 30% / 49% {-19%}

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 11% {+63%}
• Sarah Palin 69% / 19% {+50%}
• Newt Gingrich 50% / 26% {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 45% / 30% {+15%}

Among Democrats

• Mike Huckabee 21% / 49% {-28%}
• Mitt Romney 17% / 54% {-37%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% / 70% {-59%}
• Sarah Palin 9% / 83% {-74%}

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee 55% / 28% {+27%}
• Mitt Romney 36% / 40% {-4%}
• Sarah Palin 33% / 58% {-25%}
• Newt Gingrich 23% / 58% {-35%}

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 30% / 39% {-9%}
• Mitt Romney 27% / 41% {-14%}
• Sarah Palin 23% / 70% {-47%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% / 64% {-52%}

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 55% / 32% {+23%}
• Mitt Romney 37% / 46% {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 42% / 51% {-9%}
• Newt Gingrich 34% / 50% {-16%}

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 46% / 26% {+20%}
• Mitt Romney 29% / 37% {-8%}
• Sarah Palin 37% / 51% {-14%}
• Newt Gingrich 27% / 48% {-21%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 42%
• Disapprove 52%

Survey of 500 Tennessee voters was conducted February 9-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% Republican; 37% Democrat; 20% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% Moderate; 25% Very conservative; 24% Somewhat conservative; 15% Somewhat liberal; 8% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Tennessee Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Tennessee GOP Primary Survey

• Mike Huckabee 31%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Mitt Romney 11%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Mitch Daniels 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% 
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 14%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 29%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 15%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Mitt Romney 10%
• Mitch Daniels 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 1% 
• John Thune 1%
• Someone else/Undecided 9%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 33%
• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 12%
• Newt Gingrich 8%
• Ron Paul 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4%
• Mitch Daniels 2%
• John Thune 0% 
• Someone else/Undecided 18%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 13% {+61%}
• Sarah Palin 67% / 23% {+44%}
• Newt Gingrich 52% / 28% {+24%}
• Mitt Romney 47% / 30% {+17%}

Very Conservative (45%)

• Mike Huckabee 81% / 8% {+73%}
• Sarah Palin 80% / 14% {+66%}
• Newt Gingrich 68% / 13% {+55%}
• Mitt Romney 49% / 32% {+17%}

Somewhat Conservative (32%)

• Mike Huckabee 80% / 8% {+72%}
• Sarah Palin 62% / 24% {+38%}
• Mitt Romney 53% / 24% {+29%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% / 30% {+21%}

Moderate (18%)

• Mike Huckabee 52% / 26% {+26%}
• Mitt Romney 41% / 31% {+10%}
• Sarah Palin 42% / 44% {-2%}
• Newt Gingrich 24% / 53% {-29%}

Among Men (50%)

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 15% {+59%}
• Sarah Palin 63% / 25% {+38%}
• Newt Gingrich 56% / 29% {+27%}
• Mitt Romney 46% / 35% {+11%}

Among Women (50%)

• Mike Huckabee 74% / 10% {+64%}
• Sarah Palin 71% / 20% {+51%}
• Mitt Romney 49% / 26% {+23%}
• Newt Gingrich 48% / 27% {+21%}

Survey of 400 usual Tennessee Republican primary voters was conducted February 9-13, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 45% Very conservative; 32% Somewhat conservative; 18% Moderate; 4% Somewhat liberal; 1% Very liberal.

Poll Watch: Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

Vanderbilt Tennessee 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 42%
• Sarah Palin 37%

Survey of 710 respondents was conducted January 17-23, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Palin also trailed Obama among possible swing voters. Obama outpolled Palin 44 percent to 32 percent among independents, and he outperformed Palin 57 percent to 24 percent among moderates. 

Obama's support was strongest among black respondents, 80 percent of whom said they would vote for him, and Democrats, 84 percent of whom backed him. Palin's support was strongest with people who identified themselves as members of the Tea Party movement, 64 percent of whom said they would vote for her, and Republicans, 63 percent of whom backed her. 

Less than 44 percent of respondents said they approve of how Obama is handling his job. Nearly 54 percent said they disapprove.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Tennessee Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Tennessee Gubernatorial Survey

• Bill Haslam (R) 59% {56%} [50%] (45%)
• Mike McWherter (D) 31% {31%} [32%] (27%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Haslam 74% {78%} [66%] (53%) / 22% {18%} [17%] (18%) {+52%}
• Mike McWherter 43% {53%} [45%] (34%) / 50% {35%} [38%] (32%) {-7%}

How would you rate the job Phil Bredesen has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 34% {31%} [30%] (24%)
• Somewhat approve 38% {42%} [45%] (46%)
• Somewhat disapprove 16% {19%} [18%] (21%)
• Strongly disapprove 10% {7%} [7%] (7%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 25% {22%} [25%] (27%)
• Somewhat approve 11% {15%} [17%] (9%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% {10%} [10%] (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 56% {52%} [47%] (52%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 7, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 35% Republican; 30% Democrat; 35% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 22, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

While Haslam is backed by 93% of Republicans, McWherter receives support from 75% of those in his party. Haslam holds a 44-point lead over the Democrat among voters not affiliated with either major political party.