Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 55% (49%) {48%} [51%] (49%) {50%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [49%] (46%)
• Paul Hodes (D) 40% (43%) {41%} [38%] (37%) {38%} [35%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (38%)

With Leaners

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 56% (51%) {51%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 41% (44%) {44%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 57% (55%) {55%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 43% (45%) {45%}

Among Men

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 64% (55%) {56%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 34% (38%) {39%}

Among Women

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 50% (47%) {48%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 46% (50%) {48%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kelly Ayotte 58% (58%) {56%} [55%] (56%) {63%} [61%] (60%) [57%} [60%] (58%) / 37% (37%) {39%} [33%] (32%) {27%} [19%] (22%) {21%} [21%] (21%) {+21%}
• Paul Hodes 45% (47%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (46%) / 51% (47%) {48%} [44%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (38%) {-6%}

How would you rate the job John Lynch has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 34% (34%) {28%} [24%] (24%) {22%} [22%] (25%) {24%} [23%] (22%)
• Somewhat approve 22% (23%) {29%} [31%] (33%) {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [35%] (42%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% (22%) {21%} [26%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (21%)
• Strongly disapprove 24% (19%) {18%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [14%] (15%) {14%} [19%] (13%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 32% (36%) {28%} [36%] (27%) {32%} [27%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (38%)
• Somewhat approve 12% (14%) {19%} [13%] (15%) {18%} [22%] (19%) {18%} [21%] (12%)
• Somewhat disapprove 8% (7%) {8%} [8%] (11%) {9%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (9%)
• Strongly disapprove 47% (42%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%)

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted October 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 33% (34%) {30%} Republican; 31% (31%) {34%} Democrat; 35% (35%) {36%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 10, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 10, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety percent (90%) of New Hampshire Republicans support Ayotte, while 84% of the state’s Democrats back Hodes. The Republican has a 28-point lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 56% {47%} [45%] (47%)
• Paul Hodes (D) 41% {43%} [42%] (40%)
• Undecided 3% {9%} [13%] (13%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kelly Ayotte 57% {35%} [36%] (34%) / 34% {47%} [39%] (24%) {+23%}
• Paul Hodes 34% {35%} [35%] (32%) / 50% {46%} [40%] (39%) {-16%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Judd Gregg’s job performance?

• Approve 52% {45%} [44%] (44%)
• Disapprove 29% {41%} [39%] (37%) 

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s job performance?

• Approve 41% {44%} [45%] (42%)
• Disapprove 46% {49%} [44%] (48%)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 39% {44%} [49%] (47%)
• Disapprove 55% {52%} [47%] (48%)

Survey of 1,959 likely voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 37% {36%} [29%] (30%) Republican; 28% {35%} [35%] (33%) Democrat; 36% {30%} [36%] (37%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 47% {41%} [47%] (47%) Moderate; 39% {39%} [30%] (35%) Conservative; 14% {21%} [23%] (18%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 17-18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 50% (50%) {45%} [47%] (41%)
• Paul Hodes (D) 35% (35%) {37%} [32%] (33%)

Survey of 709 likely voters was conducted October 7-12, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party registration breakdown: 38.2% (46%) Independent; 33.4% (30%) Republican; 28.4% (24%) Democrat; Party ID breakdown: 43.8% (42%) Republican; 42.2% (39%) Democrat; 14.0% (19%) Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-27, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 27 - February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 49% {48%} [51%] (49%) {50%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [49%] (46%)
• Paul Hodes (D) 43% {41%} [38%] (37%) {38%} [35%] (37%) {39%} [40%] (38%)

With Leaners

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 51% {51%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 44% {44%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 55% {55%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 45% {45%}

Among Men

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 55% {56%}
• Paul Hodes (D) 38% {39%}

Among Women

• Paul Hodes (D) 50% {48%}
• Kelly Ayotte (R) 47% {48%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Kelly Ayotte 58% {56%} [55%] (56%) {63%} [61%] (60%) [57%} [60%] (58%) / 37% {39%} [33%] (32%) {27%} [19%] (22%) {21%} [21%] (21%) {+21%}
• Paul Hodes 47% {44%} [46%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (46%) / 47% {48%} [44%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (38%) {0%}

How would you rate the job John Lynch has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 34% {28%} [24%] (24%) {22%} [22%] (25%) {24%} [23%] (22%)
• Somewhat approve 23% {29%} [31%] (33%) {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [35%] (42%)
• Somewhat disapprove 22% {21%} [26%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (21%) {25%} [19%] (21%)
• Strongly disapprove 19% {18%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [14%] (15%) {14%} [19%] (13%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 36% {28%} [36%] (27%) {32%} [27%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (38%)
• Somewhat approve 14% {19%} [13%] (15%) {18%} [22%] (19%) {18%} [21%] (12%)
• Somewhat disapprove 7% {8%} [8%] (11%) {9%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (9%)
• Strongly disapprove 42% {43%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [43%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%)

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted October 10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 34% {30%} Republican; 31% {34%} Democrat; 35% {36%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 10, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-five percent (85%) of New Hampshire Republicans support Ayotte, while 82% of the state’s Democrats back Hodes. The Republican has a six-point lead among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Senatorial Survey

• Kelly Ayotte (R) 50% {45%} [47%] (41%)
• Paul Hodes (D) 35% {37%} [32%] (33%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Judd Gregg 56% {52%} [51%] (54%) / 21% {26%} [25%] (23%) {+35%}
• Jeanne Shaheen 49% {52%} [47%] (48%) / 35% {35%} [39%] (39%) {+14%}
• Kelly Ayotte 41% {36%} [38%] (38%) / 29% {27%} [13%] (12%) {+12%}
• Paul Hodes 29% {32%} [30%] (32%) / 39% {31%} [31%] (27%) {-10%}

Survey of 472 likely voters was conducted September 23-29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party registration breakdown: 46% Independent; 30% Republican; 24% Democrat; Party ID breakdown: 42% Republican; 39% Democrat; 19% Independent.  Political ideology: 47% Moderate; 34% Conservative; 19% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-27, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 27 - February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ayotte leads Hodes by 58% to 39% among voters who have definitely decided who they will support.

Among likely voters who are very interested in the election, Ayotte holds a 56% to 36% lead.