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Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Presidential Poll
- Mitt Romney (R) 51% [52%] (49%)
- Barack Obama (D) 41% [40%] (40%)
- Gary Johnson (L) 2%
- Undecided 7%
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2012, by Republican
pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based
Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is
+/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 45% [43%] Republican; 34% [38%] Democrat; 21% [19%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll
- Joe Donnelly (D) 47% [40%] (35%)
- Richard Mourdock (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
- Andrew Horning (L) 6% [7%]
- Undecided 11%
Among Independents
- Joe Donnelly (D) 51%
- Richard Mourdock (R) 17%
Among Men
- Joe Donnelly (D) 43% [38%]
- Richard Mourdock (R) 41% [42%]
Among Women
- Joe Donnelly (D) 50% [41%]
- Richard Mourdock (R) 31.5% [35%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joe Donnelly 36% [24%] / 31% [21%] {+5%}
- Richard Mourdock 30% [26%] (15%) / 49% [32%] (18%) {-19%}
In the past week or so, has your opinion of Richard Mourdock become more favorable, less favorable, or has it stayed the same?
- More favorable 11%
- Less favorable 43%
- Stayed the same 46%
Are you aware or unaware of comments Richard Mourdock made during the final Senate debate regarding his views on abortion in the case of rape?
Did what he had to say on this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Richard Mourdock, or did it not make much difference in your decision?
- More likely 6%
- Less likely 40%
- Didn't make much difference 54%
Among Independents
- More likely 3%
- Less likely 44%
Among Women
- More likely 5%
- Less likely 44%
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2012, by Republican
pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based
Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is
+/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 45% [43%] Republican; 34% [38%] Democrat; 21% [19%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Mourdock has not consolidated his GOP base. He is only polling 70% of the Republican vote, an indicator that he never brought in the Lugar wing of the GOP, nor did the campaign attempt to try, instead sending out a post-primary fundraising letter citing Lugar’s “betrayal” to conservatives. In the September survey, Mourdock was polling only 71% of the GOP. Mourdock is only polling 31.5% of the female vote and just 77% of his base, the Tea Party.
Donnelly has consolidated Democrats, winning 88% of the vote among his own party.
In the Republican-rich doughnut counties, Mourdock's fav/unfavs stood at 30/50%. With independent women he stood at 12/48% and with independent men, 23/51%. Donnelly’s fav/unfav in the doughnut was 36/32% and with independent women, 31/16%.
In the Indiana Congressional Districts, Mourdock has his strongest support in 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th districts where he barely polls above 40%. Mourdock only has 29% support his home 8th district. In comparison, Donnelly leads in all districts except the 3rd and 4th.
Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Presidential Poll
- Mitt Romney 52% (49%)
- Barack Obama 40% (40%)
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012, by Republican
pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based
Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is
+/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 43% Republican; 38% Democrat; 19% Independent. Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll
- Joe Donnelly (D) 40% (35%)
- Richard Mourdock (R) 38% (35%)
- Andrew Horning (L) 7%
Among Men
- Richard Mourdock (R) 42%
- Joe Donnelly (D) 38%
Among Women
- Joe Donnelly (D) 41%
- Richard Mourdock (R) 35%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Joe Donnelly 24% / 21% {+3%}
- Richard Mourdock 26% (15%) / 32% (18%) {-6%}
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012, by Republican
pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based
Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is
+/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 43% Republican; 38% Democrat; 19% Independent. Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
While cross tabs show Mourdock’s favorables stood at 45.5% with Republicans, only 18.4% of independents – the voting block likely to determine this race – viewed him favorably while 32.4% were unfavorable.
Mourdock is polling only 71% of the Republican vote while Donnelly is getting 78.3% of the Democratic vote. Among Lugar primary voters, 60.3% are backing Mourdock, with 9.8% of those voters saying they could change their minds. Donnelly is polling 15.3% of Lugar primary voters.
Mourdock is also losing support in the Republican-rich doughnut counties around Indianapolis. His fav/unfavs in the doughnut counties are a troubling 18/43%. He leads Donnelly in the doughnut by only 36-32%.
Howey/DePauw Indiana 2012 GOP Senate Primary Poll
- Richard Mourdock 48% (35%)
- Richard Lugar 38% (42%)
- Undecided 14% (23%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Richard Mourdock 47% (24%) / 25% (18%) {+22%}
- Richard Lugar 43% (47%) / 43% (31%) {0%}
Survey of 700 likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 30 - May 1, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 76% Republican; 23% Independent; 1% Democrat. Political ideology: 44% Very conservative; 33% Somewhat conservative; 19% Moderate; 1% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.
Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Richard Lugar 42%
- Richard Mourdock 35%
- Undecided 23%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Richard Lugar 47% / 31% {+16%}
- Richard Mourdock 24% / 18% {+6%}
GENERAL ELECTION
- Richard Lugar (R) 50%
- Joe Donnelly (D) 29%
- Joe Donnelly (D) 35%
- Richard Mourdock (R) 35%
Survey of 503 likely voters, including an oversample of 503 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted March 26-28, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Presidential Poll
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
- Rick Santorum 27%
- Mitt Romney 26%
- Newt Gingrich 6%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Undecided 35%
GENERAL ELECTION
- Mitt Romney 49%
- Barack Obama 40%
- Rick Santorum 46%
- Barack Obama 41%
Survey of 503 likely voters, including an oversample of 503 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted March 26-28, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
President Obama's approval rating in the state is just 39 percent.
