Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Survey on Abortion

Rasmussen (R) Survey on Abortion

Generally speaking, on the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself pro-choice or pro-life?

• Pro-Choice 54% [52%] (51%) {53%} [49%] (50%)
• Pro-Life 38% [41%] (40%) {39%} [41%] (40%)

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted November 10-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 1, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 16-17, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-26, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 14-15, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

More voters than ever now identify themselves as pro-choice when it comes to abortion, and most rate the issue as important to how they vote.

The number of pro-choice voters is up only slightly from 52% in August but is now at the highest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports in surveys dating back to 2007. This also marks the first time that the percentage of pro-life voters has fallen below 40% in several years.

Republican candidates favored to win U.S. Senate races in Indiana and Missouri lost last week in large part because of controversial abortion-related remarks they made.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of women are now pro-choice, as are 51% of men.

Voters younger than 40 are more likely than their elders to be pro-choice.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters now consider abortion important to how they will vote, including 37% who view it as Very Important. Among female voters, 45% feel the issue of abortion is Very Important to their vote.

Forty-five percent (45%) of pro-life voters say abortion is Very Important as a voting issue, compared to 34% who are Pro-Choice.

Among all voters, only 35% say the issue is not important in terms of how they vote, with 13% who feel it is Not At All Important.

Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll

• Joe Donnelly (D) 47% [40%] (35%)
• Richard Mourdock (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
• Andrew Horning (L) 6% [7%]
• Undecided 11%

Among Independents

• Joe Donnelly (D) 51%
• Richard Mourdock (R) 17%

Among Men

• Joe Donnelly (D) 43% [38%]
• Richard Mourdock (R) 41% [42%] 

Among Women

• Joe Donnelly (D) 50% [41%] 
• Richard Mourdock (R) 31.5% [35%] 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 36% [24%] / 31% [21%] {+5%}
• Richard Mourdock 30% [26%] (15%) / 49% [32%] (18%) {-19%}

In the past week or so, has your opinion of Richard Mourdock become more favorable, less favorable, or has it stayed the same?

• More favorable 11%
• Less favorable 43%
• Stayed the same 46% 

Are you aware or unaware of comments Richard Mourdock made during the final Senate debate regarding his views on abortion in the case of rape? 

• Aware 87%
• Unaware 13% 
  

Did what he had to say on this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Richard Mourdock, or did it not make much difference in your decision? 

• More likely 6%
• Less likely 40%
• Didn't make much difference 54%

Among Independents

• More likely 3%
• Less likely 44%

Among Women

• More likely 5%
• Less likely 44%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 45% [43%] Republican; 34% [38%] Democrat; 21% [19%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Mourdock has not consolidated his GOP base. He is only polling 70% of the Republican vote, an indicator that he never brought in the Lugar wing of the GOP, nor did the campaign attempt to try, instead sending out a post-primary fundraising letter citing Lugar’s “betrayal” to conservatives. In the September survey, Mourdock was polling only 71% of the GOP.  Mourdock is only polling 31.5% of the female vote and just 77% of his base, the Tea Party.

Donnelly has consolidated Democrats, winning 88% of the vote among his own party.

In the Republican-rich doughnut counties, Mourdock's fav/unfavs stood at 30/50%. With independent women he stood at 12/48% and with independent men, 23/51%. Donnelly’s fav/unfav in the doughnut was 36/32% and with independent women, 31/16%.

In the Indiana Congressional Districts, Mourdock has his strongest support in 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th districts where he barely polls above 40%. Mourdock only has 29% support his home 8th district. In comparison, Donnelly leads in all districts except the 3rd and 4th.

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Poll Watch: Fox News Survey on Health Care

Fox News Survey on Health Care

Do you favor or oppose the new national health care law that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama in 2010?

• Favor 40% (40%)
• Oppose 49% (53%)

Democrats

• Favor 72%
• Oppose 16%

Republicans

• Favor 9%
• Oppose 85%

Independents

• Favor 34%
• Oppose 51%

Recently the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on the constitutionality of the new health care law, which is called the 2010 Affordable Care Act. What do you think the Supreme Court should do?

• Uphold the law as constitutional and let it stand 30% (27%)
• Keep most of the law, but rule the requirement for Americans to buy health insurance as unconstitutional 21% (24%)
• Invalidate the whole law as unconstitutional 38% (42%)

Democrats

• Uphold the law as constitutional and let it stand 53%
• Keep most of the law, but rule the requirement for Americans to buy health insurance as unconstitutional 23%
• Invalidate the whole law as unconstitutional 14%

Republicans

• Uphold the law as constitutional and let it stand 10%
• Keep most of the law, but rule the requirement for Americans to buy health insurance as unconstitutional 15%
• Invalidate the whole law as unconstitutional 65%

Independents

• Uphold the law as constitutional and let it stand 22%
• Keep most of the law, but rule the requirement for Americans to buy health insurance as unconstitutional 25%
• Invalidate the whole law as unconstitutional 40%

The new Obama health care law requires that employer health plans provide birth control coverage as part of preventive services for women. Most Catholic and other religious-affiliated hospitals and universities don’t do that and are fighting the new requirement in court because they say it violates their religious rights under the Constitution. Overall, who do you believe is right in this situation -- the Catholic Church or the government?

• The government 47%
• The Catholic Church 41%

Democrats

• The government 74%
• The Catholic Church 17%

Republicans

• The Catholic Church 68%
• The government 23%

Independents

• The Catholic Church 42%
  
• The government 38%

Men

• The Catholic Church 49%
  
• The government 42%

Women

• The government 51%
• The Catholic Church 35%

Do you believe the federal government forcing Americans to buy health insurance is a violation of individual rights protected by the Constitution -- or not?

• Yes it is 60%
• No it isn’t 36%

Democrats

• Yes it is 33%
• No it isn’t 61%

Republicans

• Yes it is 87%
• No it isn’t 10%

Independents

• Yes it is 66%
• No it isn’t 30%

Survey of 907 registered voters was conducted June 3-5, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2012 are in parentheses.

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