Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senate Poll

• Joe Donnelly (D) 45% [42%] (40%)
• Richard Mourdock (R) 42% [47%] (42%)
• Some other candidate 6% [2%] (3%)
• Undecided 6% [8%] (15%) 
  

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. 

Joe Donnelly

• Very favorable 13% [13%]
• Somewhat favorable 30% [31%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 23% [22%]
• Very unfavorable 22% [15%]

Richard Mourdock 

• Very favorable 13% [13%]
• Somewhat favorable 27% [31%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% [20%]
• Very unfavorable 39% [20%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 43% [44%] / 45% [37%] {-2%}
• Richard Mourdock 40% [44%] / 53% [40%] {-13%} 

Survey of 600 likely voter was conducted November 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-11, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Twenty percent (20%) of likely Indiana voters have cast their ballots already, and Donnelly leads 48% to 42% among these voters.

Mourdock leads by 10 points among male voters but trails by 15 among female voters. However, 13% of both groups either prefer a third-party alternative or are undecided.

Donnelly has the support of 81% of Indiana Democrats and 11% of the state’s Republicans. Eighty-three percent (83%) of GOP voters back Mourdock. Among voters in Indiana not affiliated with either party, Donnelly leads 53% to 29%, but 19% of these voters favor another candidate or are undecided.

Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll

• Joe Donnelly (D) 47% [40%] (35%)
• Richard Mourdock (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
• Andrew Horning (L) 6% [7%]
• Undecided 11%

Among Independents

• Joe Donnelly (D) 51%
• Richard Mourdock (R) 17%

Among Men

• Joe Donnelly (D) 43% [38%]
• Richard Mourdock (R) 41% [42%] 

Among Women

• Joe Donnelly (D) 50% [41%] 
• Richard Mourdock (R) 31.5% [35%] 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 36% [24%] / 31% [21%] {+5%}
• Richard Mourdock 30% [26%] (15%) / 49% [32%] (18%) {-19%}

In the past week or so, has your opinion of Richard Mourdock become more favorable, less favorable, or has it stayed the same?

• More favorable 11%
• Less favorable 43%
• Stayed the same 46% 

Are you aware or unaware of comments Richard Mourdock made during the final Senate debate regarding his views on abortion in the case of rape? 

• Aware 87%
• Unaware 13% 
  

Did what he had to say on this make you more likely or less likely to vote for Richard Mourdock, or did it not make much difference in your decision? 

• More likely 6%
• Less likely 40%
• Didn't make much difference 54%

Among Independents

• More likely 3%
• Less likely 44%

Among Women

• More likely 5%
• Less likely 44%

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 28-30, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 45% [43%] Republican; 34% [38%] Democrat; 21% [19%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Mourdock has not consolidated his GOP base. He is only polling 70% of the Republican vote, an indicator that he never brought in the Lugar wing of the GOP, nor did the campaign attempt to try, instead sending out a post-primary fundraising letter citing Lugar’s “betrayal” to conservatives. In the September survey, Mourdock was polling only 71% of the GOP.  Mourdock is only polling 31.5% of the female vote and just 77% of his base, the Tea Party.

Donnelly has consolidated Democrats, winning 88% of the vote among his own party.

In the Republican-rich doughnut counties, Mourdock's fav/unfavs stood at 30/50%. With independent women he stood at 12/48% and with independent men, 23/51%. Donnelly’s fav/unfav in the doughnut was 36/32% and with independent women, 31/16%.

In the Indiana Congressional Districts, Mourdock has his strongest support in 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 9th districts where he barely polls above 40%. Mourdock only has 29% support his home 8th district. In comparison, Donnelly leads in all districts except the 3rd and 4th.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senate Poll

• Richard Mourdock (R) 47% (42%)
• Joe Donnelly (D) 42% (40%)
• Some other candidate 2% (3%)
• Undecided 8% (15%) 
  

I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression. 

Joe Donnelly

• Very favorable 13%
• Somewhat favorable 31%
• Somewhat unfavorable 22%
• Very unfavorable 15%

Richard Mourdock 

• Very favorable 13%
• Somewhat favorable 31%
• Somewhat unfavorable 20%
• Very unfavorable 20%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 44% / 37% {+7%}
• Richard Mourdock 44% / 40% {+4%} 

Survey of 600 likely voter was conducted October 10-11, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 31 - August 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Just 63% of all voters in Indiana are certain of their vote at this time. Of those voters, 54% prefer Mourdock, while 45% choose Donnelly.

Both candidates draw support from roughly 80% of voters in their own political parties. The race is a dead heat among voters who are not affiliated with either party.

While Mourdock leads Donnelly 54% to 39% among male voters in the Hoosier State, Donnelly holds a three-point edge among female voters.

Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll

• Joe Donnelly (D) 40% (35%)
• Richard Mourdock (R) 38% (35%)
• Andrew Horning (L) 7%

Among Men

• Richard Mourdock (R) 42%
• Joe Donnelly (D) 38% 

Among Women

• Joe Donnelly (D) 41% 
• Richard Mourdock (R) 35% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Donnelly 24% / 21% {+3%}
• Richard Mourdock 26% (15%) / 32% (18%) {-6%}

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 19-20 and 23, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% Republican; 38% Democrat; 19% Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 26-28, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers: 

While cross tabs show Mourdock’s favorables stood at 45.5% with Republicans, only 18.4% of independents – the voting block likely to determine this race – viewed him favorably while 32.4% were unfavorable.

Mourdock is polling only 71% of the Republican vote while Donnelly is getting 78.3% of the Democratic vote. Among Lugar primary voters, 60.3% are backing Mourdock, with 9.8% of those voters saying they could change their minds. Donnelly is polling 15.3% of Lugar primary voters.

Mourdock is also losing support in the Republican-rich doughnut counties around Indianapolis. His fav/unfavs in the doughnut counties are a troubling 18/43%. He leads Donnelly in the doughnut by only 36-32%.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) Indiana 2012 Senate Poll

• Richard Mourdock (R) 42%
• Joe Donnelly (D) 40%
• Some other candidate 3%
• Undecided 15% 
  

Among Independents

• Joe Donnelly (D) 39%
• Richard Mourdock (R) 35%
  

Among Men

• Richard Mourdock (R) 42%
  
• Joe Donnelly (D) 41%

Among Women

• Richard Mourdock (R) 43%
  
• Joe Donnelly (D) 39%

Survey of 400 likely voter was conducted July 31 - August 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Indiana Republicans support Mourdock, while 85% of Democrats back Donnelly.

Mourdock earns very favorable reviews from 13% of voters in the state and very unfavorable marks from 22%. For Donnelly, his very favorables are seven percent (7%) and very unfavorables 14%.

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Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

• Richard Lugar 42% 
• Richard Mourdock 35% 
• Undecided 23% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

• Richard Lugar 47% / 31% {+16%} 
• Richard Mourdock 24% / 18% {+6%} 

GENERAL ELECTION 

• Richard Lugar (R) 50% 
• Joe Donnelly (D) 29% 

• Joe Donnelly (D) 35% 
• Richard Mourdock (R) 35% 

Survey of 503 likely voters, including an oversample of 503 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted March 26-28, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.